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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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ticklish8
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07-Apr-2009 19:42
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Soros says it is a bear market rally. April 7 (Bloomberg) -- George Soros, the billionaire hedge- fund manager who made money last year while most peers suffered losses, said the four-week rally in U.S. stocks isn’t the start of a bull market because the economy is still shrinking. “It’s a bear-market rally because we have not yet turned the economy around,” Soros, 78, said in an interview yesterday with Bloomberg Television, referring to the recent rebound in stock prices. “This isn’t a financial crisis like all the other financial crises that we have experienced in our lifetime.” The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of largest U.S. companies has climbed 24 percent since March 9 on optimism the worst of the 16-month U.S. recession is over. The economy continues to contract, and there’s a risk the U.S. falls into a depression, Soros said. “As long as we deal with this in a multilateral and more or less coordinated way, I think we’ll get through,” said Soros, whose Quantum Endowment Fund rose 8 percent last year, compared with the average 19 percent decline of hedge funds tracked by Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research Inc. Marc Faber, managing director of Hong Kong-based Marc Faber Ltd. and publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report, said in a separate Bloomberg TV interview today that the S&P 500 may drop as much as 10 percent before resuming gains. Views on Obama Soros gave a mostly positive review of the President Barack Obama’s administration. “He’s done very well in every area, except in dealing with the recapitalization of the banks and the restructuring of the mortgage market,” said Soros, who has published an updated paperback version of his book “The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What It Means” (Scribe Publications, 2009). “Unfortunately, there’s just a little bit too much continuity with the previous administration.” Soros said the U.S. housing market hasn’t bottomed, even as transactions in states such as California have increased. “There are some signs of hitting bottom, but we are not there yet,” he said. “A lot has been done to forestall foreclosures.” U.S. stocks declined for the first time in five days yesterday on concern that government measures to shore up banks may not help as much as estimated by analysts and loan losses will exceed levels from the Great Depression. The S&P 500 fell 0.8 percent to 835.48. ‘Zombie’ Banks Soros said the banking system is “seriously under water” with banks on “life support.” “They are weighed down by a lot of bad assets, which are still declining in value,” he said in the interview in his New York office. “The amount is difficult to estimate, but I think it’s in the region of maybe a trillion-and-a-half dollars.” Soros said the change to fair-value accounting rules will keep troubled banks in business, stalling a U.S. recovery. “This is part of the muddling-through scenario where we are going to keep zombie banks alive,” Soros said. “It’s going to sap the energies of the economy.” The Financial Accounting Standards Board relaxed so-called mark-to-market rules last week, allowing banks to use “significant” judgment in gauging prices of some investments on their books. While analysts said the measure may reduce writedowns and boost net income, investor advocates and accounting-industry groups said it will help financial institutions hide their true health. Bank Nationalization The “bugaboo of nationalizing banks,” which the Obama administration wants to avoid, means “we are nationalizing only one side of the balance sheet,” Soros said. “We gradually take over the deficits on the balance sheet. But we aren’t actually going to benefit from the banks recovering.” Money being injected into banks under government rescue programs should be used to finance new lending, according to Soros. He said he participated in HSBC Holdings Plc’s rights offer, which raised about $19.1 billion. Soros’s firm oversees $21 billion. Its Quantum Endowment Fund rose 5.2 percent this year through February, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Soros ranked last year as the industry’s fourth-highest paid hedge fund manager, earning about $1.1 billion, according to Institutional Investor’s Alpha magazine. Hedge funds should be regulated like other financial firms, Soros said. It would be appropriate for authorities to monitor positions to see whether managers have “excessive exposure,” he said. Hedge-Fund Regulation The Group of 20 leaders said last week they would extend oversight to all financial institutions deemed vital to global financial stability, including “systemically important” hedge funds. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said last month he wants to bring hedge funds, private-equity firms and derivatives markets under federal supervision for the first time. “The hedge funds that have used excessive leverage have actually failed or are on the way out, so I don’t think this is going to do any damage or hurt the hedge funds except for the fact that they have to fill out more forms,” Soros said. “Recognizing that markets are inherently unstable does require a different kind of regulation than we had in the past,” he said. Soros Fund Management LLC was fined 489 million forint ($2.2 million) last month for attempting to manipulate the share price of OTP Bank Nyrt., Hungary’s largest bank, the country’s financial regulator said. Hungarian Ruling The Soros fund attempted on Oct. 9 to “send out false or misleading signals about a security’s supply and demand or its share price” and short sold OTP shares, the regulator, known as PSZAF, said in a statement late yesterday. The short selling caused the shares to drop 14 percent in the final 30 minutes of trade, the regulator said. Soros apologized for the trade and said the fund had started an internal investigation. Hungarian-born Soros gained fame in the 1990s when he broke the Bank of England’s defense of the pound and drove the currency from Europe’s system of linked exchange rates. He also successfully bet that Germany’s mark would appreciate after the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and Japanese stocks would start to fall in the same year. Soros said China’s economic growth will accelerate before the end of the year. “They have a pretty big stimulus package,” he said. “They are going to use more, because not being a democracy, the leadership knows that their very survival, the avoidance of social unrest, requires them to generate growth.” Brazil to China China’s economy grew 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter from the same period a year earlier, lagging the 9 percent expansion in all of 2008 and 13 percent in 2007. Industrial output growth slowed, forcing thousands of factories to close and leaving about 20 million migrant workers jobless. Brazil’s economy will resume growth “relatively soon,” helped by Chinese demand for iron ore and soybeans, Soros said. “I think Brazil actually, together with China, will be among the recovering countries,” he said. “The outlook for Brazil is better than for most other countries.” To contact the reporter on this story: Kathleen Hays in New York at khays4@bloomberg.net; Saijel Kishan in New York at skishan@bloomberg.net Last Updated: April 7, 2009 03:21 EDT |
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lookcc
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07-Apr-2009 19:24
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up n up, now down n down....then up n up again followed by down n d cycle goes on. | ||||
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ticklish8
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07-Apr-2009 18:01
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AP Market Report HONG KONG (AP) – Asian stock markets stumbled Tuesday as fresh concerns about banks and upcoming results from U.S. companies led many investors to book profits following a massive global rally in recent weeks. European markets were mostly flat. Most major Asian markets suffered losses, tracking overnight selling that pulled Wall Street lower for the first time in five days. Asian banks, among the best performers of late, led some of the declines. Oil and mining firms also took a hit on lower prices for crude and metals. Resurgent fears about the banking sector were partly to blame after influential analysts at Calyon Securities warned America’s bank losses could exceed Depression-era levels and that government actions might not help as much as expected. A sense of unease also descended on the markets ahead of quarterly earning results that U.S. corporations will release this month, starting Tuesday with aluminum giant Alcoa. The unraveling of IBM Corp.’s $7 billion deal for Sun Microsystems gave investors more reason for caution. After a four-week bull run that’s driven some markets higher by 20 percent or more, investors are becoming more skittish as they brace for another round of selling. “All the markets have risen sharply in last the few weeks and the markets are overbought,” said Peter Lai, investment manager at DBS Vickers in Hong Kong. “Many people are now waiting for news or economic figures as an excuse to take profits, and some of smart funds are already selling.” Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock average closed down 25.08 points, or 0.3 percent, to 8,832.85 even as the Bank of Japan unveiled new steps to spur lending and corporate financing amid a painful recession. The central bank also announced it was keeping its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a super low 0.1 percent, as was widely expected. Elsewhere, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 69.07 points, or 0.5 percent, to 14,928.97. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.2 percent to 1,300.10 in back-and-forth trade. Australia’s key index dropped 1.3 percent as the country’s central bank cut its key interest rate by a further quarter percentage point to 3 percent. Markets in Singapore and Malaysia also lost ground while those in Shanghai and Taiwan gained. India was closed for a public holiday. In Europe, Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 0.3 percent, while Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC-40 were little changed. U.S. futures fell, suggesting another down session on Wall Street. Dow futures lost 32 points, or 0.4 percent, to 7,884 and S&P 500 futures were down 4.5 points, or 0.5 percent, to 825.90. Stocks markets around the world have rallied hard in the last four weeks amid very early signs the sickly banking sector might be stabilizing and major economies from the U.S. to China might be nearing a bottom, thanks partly to government stimulus measures. Hopes that Asian nations can heal faster – supported by the huge amounts of money Beijing is pouring into the world’s third-largest economy – have become a focal point for many investors. The World Bank said Tuesday China will likely to start recovering later this year, though economic growth in developing East Asia as a whole will slow to less than half its rate in 2007 as exports to rich countries collapse. Still, Tuesday’s losses showed just how sensitive Asian investors remain to developments in the West. As in the U.S., investors sold down a number of banks. Mizuho Financial Group Inc. shed 2.5 percent in Tokyo and leading Australian investment bank Macquarie Group tumbled 4.9 percent. Commodity firms also came under pressure. Rio Tinto Group, the world’s No. 3 mining company, plunged 10 percent in Sydney after announcing plans to cut more than 700 jobs at Australian mines due to a drop in aluminum demand and prices. There was also market speculation the commodities giant may look to raise capital through new shares should its deal with Aluminum Corp. of China founder. Weakness in New York weighed heavily on Asia, where investors often look to Wall Street for cues about the next day’s session. The Dow Jones industrials fell 41.74, or 0.5 percent, to 7,975.85 after being down as much as 155 points. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 7.02, or 0.8 percent, to 835.48. Oil hovered near $51 a barrel in Asia as investors mulled whether crude’s two-month rally can be sustained while global demand remains weak. Benchmark crude for May delivery fell 17 cents to $50.88 a barrel. The contract fell $1.46 on Monday to settle at $51.05. In currencies, the dollar weakened to 100.35 yen from 100.64 yen, following its march above 101.40 yen the day before. The euro traded higher at $1.3360 from $1.3426. AP-TK-07-04-09 0843GMT |
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ticklish8
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07-Apr-2009 17:58
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Singapore Market Report from Bloomberg April 7 (Bloomberg) – Singapore’s Straits Times Index dropped 2.5 percent to 1,802.39 at the close. Eight stocks fell for each that advanced of the gauge’s 30 constituents. The following companies were among the most active in the stock market today. Stock symbols are in parentheses after company names. Commodity Suppliers: The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities fell 1.9 percent yesterday in New York. Olam International Ltd. (OLAM SP), a supplier of agricultural commodities, dropped 3.6 percent to S$1.62. Noble Group Ltd. (NOBL SP), a Hong Kong-based supplier of commodities whose stock rating was cut to “underperform” at Credit Suisse Group AG, fell 6.9 percent to S$1.22. Singapore Real Estate Investment Trust: The recent rebound in the so-called REITs is “unsustainable” due to weak underlying fundamentals of the sector, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets analyst Yew Kiang Wong wrote in a note today. “We remain negative on Singapore REITs due to headwinds of further asset writedowns and possible further equity requirements.” Ascendas REIT (AREIT SP), an industrial landlord, fell 2.9 percent to S$1.34. CapitaMall Trust (CT SP), a shopping mall operator partly owned by CapitaLand Ltd., dropped 2.3 percent to S$1.28. CapitaCommercial Trust (CCT SP), an office landlord controlled by CapitaLand, slumped 4.6 percent to 83 Singapore cents. Suntec REIT (SUN SP), one of two Singapore-traded REITs controlled by Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing, dipped 3.1 percent to 62.5 Singapore cents. Hongkong Land Holdings Ltd. (HKL SP), one of the biggest landlords in Hong Kong’s financial district, dropped 6.4 percent to $2.36. HSBC Holdings Plc reduced its rating to “neutral” from “overweight.” SembCorp Marine Ltd. (SMM SP), the world’s second-biggest oil rig builder, retreated 7 percent to S$2. Credit Suisse said it’s maintaining its “underperform” rating and share price target of 95 Singapore cents because it believes demand remains weak even though the company won a $247.3 million rig order from SeaDragon Offshore last week. Singapore Telecommunications Ltd. (ST SP), Southeast Asia’s biggest telecommunications company, added 2.9 percent to S$2.53 after the Australian government terminated the bidding for a proposed A$43 billion ($30.7 billion) high-speed internet network. The decision is a relief to investors because they no longer need to worry about how SingTel, as the company is known, will fund the project if its unit Optus won the bidding, DBS Group Holdings Ltd. said in a note today. For Related News and Information: Global stock stories: TOP STK GO For most read Asian stories: MNI ASIA GO World equity index monitor: WEI GO World equity valuations: WPE GO –Editors: Sam Waite, Darren Boey. To contact the reporter on this story: Jonathan Burgos in Singapore at +65-6212-1156 or jburgos4@bloomberg.net. To contact the editor responsible for this story: Darren Boey at +852-2977-6646 or dboey@bloomberg.net. -0- Apr/07/2009 09:49 GMT 04-07-09 0549EDT |
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ticklish8
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07-Apr-2009 17:57
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Market report wrap. LONDON, April 7 (Reuters) - World stocks turned lower and European currencies fell on Tuesday after data showed the euro zone economy shrank more than previously thought, fanning concerns about the impact on corporate profits from the economy. Gross domestic product in the euro area contracted 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, rather than the previously reported 1.5 percent. UK manufacturing output fell 0.9 percent in February, less than expected but marking the 12th straight month of declines, the longest stretch of losses since early 1980s. World stocks, measured by MSCI slipped after a month-long run pushed them to a two-month high on Monday. The drop in the euro zone GDP is deepest ever quarterly fall and was brought on by a collapse in external trade, fanning concerns about the impact on corporate profits just as a U.S. corporate earnings season kicks off later on Tuesday. “Worryingly, it is far from inconceivable that euro zone GDP contraction was even deeper in the first quarter... given largely dire data and survey evidence,” said Howard Archer, chief European economist at IHS Global Insight. “This will hopefully have marked the low point in the downturn, although recovery currently still looks some way away.” The MSCI equity index fell 0.7 percent while the FTSEurofirst 300 index lost 1 percent. Emerging stocks dropped 1 percent. U.S. crude oil erased early gains, falling 1.7 percent to $50.26 a barrel. The June bund futures rose 11 ticks. The euro fell 0.9 percent to $1.3280, hitting session lows after the data, while sterling lost 0.8 percent to $1.4631. The yen rose 0.7 percent to 100.37 per dollar. Earlier, the Bank of Japan left interest rates on hold at 0.1 percent and unveiled plans to lend against a wider range of municipal debt in a move to ease a domestic credit crunch. Japan is also set to announce a new economic stimulus package worth more than 2 percent of GDP on Friday as the country grapples with its worst recession since World War Two. The new package will add around $100 billion to spending already planned under previous measures. The dollar rose 0.7 percent against a basket of major currencies. “Data is meagre and FX markets are trading in the wake of stock markets, which is likely to continue going into the long weekend,” said Frankfurt-based Commerzbank currency strategist Antje Praefcke. (Additional reporting by Jessica Mortimer; Editing by Victoria Main) |
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aleoleo
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07-Apr-2009 17:55
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Today’s Focus • No change in market view: upside of 2140 for the STI but in the short-term, likely to see a pause for breather as investors brace for the earnings season. The trend should remain up as long as data out of China and US continues to improve. Support at 1730, with a minor one at 1800. Avoid dry bulk shipping sector for now but consider taking up long position towards end May |
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HLJHLJ
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07-Apr-2009 14:57
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dont panic, just "chuan kui"only. MA is showing uptrending. Few days back, i've posted that TA shows overbought and now is "chuan Kui time. MA signals still uptrend. |
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ozone2002
Supreme |
07-Apr-2009 13:12
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Mr Doomgloom is bullish.. Stocks May See 'Correction' of 10%, Marc Faber Says (Update1) 2009-04-07 01:47:06.651 GMT (Adds S&P 500's performance in fourth paragraph.) By Chen Shiyin and Susan Li April 7 (Bloomberg) -- Global stocks may drop as much as 10 percent in a "correction" following gains in the last four weeks, before rebounding after July, investor Marc Faber said. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index may decline to around 750 before further gains in July, Faber, 63, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Singapore. That's a drop of 10 percent from yesterday's close. Stocks in the U.S. and other global markets are unlikely to fall below their October and November lows, he added. "After the rally since March 6, we need some kind of correction, maybe around 5 to 10 percent, and after that we can maybe rally more into July," said Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report. "The economic news, while it won't be good, the rate of getting worse will slow down." Faber on March 9 advised investors to buy U.S. stocks, saying government actions will boost equities. The S&P 500 has since rallied 25 percent from a 12-year low through last week, the steepest rally since 1938, as rising home sales and durable- goods orders signal a bottoming in the U.S. economy. Gains may be halted by unemployment, consumer debt and concern banks will be forced to write down more loans. Faber told investors to abandon U.S. stocks a week before 1987's so-called Black Monday crash and said in August 2007 that U.S. shares were entering a bear market. The S&P 500 peaked at 1,565.15 in October of that year before retreating as much as 57 percent. Commodities, Banks Faber said he had bought some commodity producers in November and is now less favorable on these companies with some stocks more than doubling. He has also bought some bank stocks and predicted that Citigroup Inc. shares could "easily rebound" to around $5 a share from $2.72 currently. "The rebound potential for financials is quite high," Faber said. In Asia, stocks offer "much better value" than U.S. shares, and investors should seize the opportunity to buy the region's equities on "every setback," he added. "If you buy Asian equities in the next three months, over the next five to 10 years, for sure you will make money," Faber said. Faber is less favorable on bonds, saying they are entering a "long-term bear market" that can last for the next 15 years to 20 years. |
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ozone2002
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07-Apr-2009 13:09
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vol plays a big part in progression or regression..
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moneytalk.sg
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07-Apr-2009 12:13
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I am inclined to think that the market has already bottomed. If you realize, market volume has been hitting 2 billion these days, as compared to a few months ago when the volume is only around 1 billion or even less than that. Another thing is that positive economic news has been streaming in and that is after major indices are some way off the interim bottom which was made last month already. Going by the percentage drop from the peak and the duration of this bear market as mentioned on my site, we should be seeing a recovery. Blogging at moneytalk.sg on the stock market, ETF and anything to do with money. |
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derricktan
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07-Apr-2009 12:05
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TA traders dont have to glued themselves to the screen 24/7. Now with internet trading and CFD...uyou can place your cut loss, protect profection with a click. Still enjoying life while makign money. Also TA go for short term price fluctuation to capture explosive return (this is not day trading). I am also INVESTING with blue chips or very counters with good dividend yield. There is nothing 100% sure in this world..even you spent 50K on an MBA will not guranteed you to become successful CEO or businessman or the type of life you want..but it will increase oyur chances..same for TA. TA is not gambling and be it whether you are TA or FA ,once in the market there will be an element of speculation. If TA is gambling ..then I must be damn lucky for the past 24 months. Even with TA i can catch stocks that have bottomed and reversing it trend.. and that is how i can get in near bottomed and hold for a long term for counters that fit my criteria. Everyone is enttiled to express his opinion but be more receptive to others' opinions and there are not only one way to wealth creation in stock market and in business and career. |
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des_khor
Supreme |
07-Apr-2009 11:56
Yells: "Tell me who is the God or MFT from this forum??" |
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The drop just begun... fasten the seat belt !! | ||||
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richtan
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07-Apr-2009 11:52
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The mkt had gone up so much, so naturally mild profit-taking is to be expected. Whenever it dips, buyers come in. Mkt must chuan kui lah
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ozone2002
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07-Apr-2009 11:45
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STI down on low vol... Up on high vol.. Bullishness Looking good!.. |
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mkrji2002y
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07-Apr-2009 00:39
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Reiterate that it is time to buy medium or long term for investment(time frame up to individuals). Dont ever get suck in by so called TA traders or gamblers on short term/day trading or pure gambling. There is no need to glue yourselves to the screen for 24/7. Forward indicating data has shown stabilisation. If u think its a bear rally, stay out.
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jeremyow
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07-Apr-2009 00:19
Yells: "Passionate business investor" |
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Market is very sentiment driven. Fear and greed are always in play at every moment of trading. TA serves the purpose of tracking the market sentiments. It is also used to fairly predict the short-term future trends in the market sentiments. TA may serve this purpose of tracking the market sentiments well, but it cannot predict 100% accurately what is going to happen in near future. It only serves as a guiding reference to predict short-term trading sentiments to a certain extent. Even so, trading using TA is better than speculating. Nobody can play God when it comes to predicting the future market sentiments. Only God knows what is going to happen next. If anyone has a 100% accurate predicting powers, then I will gladly invest in this miraculous investing prophet and pay him even 70% of my profits from investments since he can tell me accurately what counters to buy, when to buy and when to sell exactly to make 100% maximum perfect profitable trades consistently. TA does serve it's purpose of tracking and predicting short-term market sentiments, but it is not 100% perfect. That is why such thing as 'cutting loss' is necessary to factor in the inability to play God and be 100% accurate all the time. In fact, most of time, speculators and traders just have to cut loss if things go wrong as this important discipline is critical to minimise loss and maximise profits. The making of a good trader is to have a good cutting loss discipline to preserve one's capital as much as possible. Preservation of one's capital ensures one is still in the game of trading and not kicked out. The profits will come naturally as opportunities arise as long as one is able to keep participating in the trading game through good capital preservation discipline.
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singaporegal
Supreme |
06-Apr-2009 20:39
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Good volumes today. Penny stocks are starting to move. |
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richtan
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06-Apr-2009 18:59
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Wat makes u think regional mkts out of steam, dun be another MFT. It is no use speculating, trade base on TA & act based on TA. Todays closing doesn't look out of steam, it may chuan kui for next few days or it may corrects, nobody knows except GOD. so trade day to day & act day to day.
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aleoleo
Master |
06-Apr-2009 17:04
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too volatile .... SGX from 6.20 then kena dump like hell .... keep dropping ..... why they keep throwing SGX today ??? SELL order come ...that's why fund manger dump ???
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iPunter
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06-Apr-2009 17:01
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In practice, the stock market 'plays' people like they are fiddles... hehehe... 
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