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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

amilytan
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09-May-2009 16:01

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aleoleo, you mean that, after reach 2500-2600, STI will be correction and down back again after fund manager take profit?

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DnApeh
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09-May-2009 15:46

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what if the higher low is really high?

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aleoleo
Master

09-May-2009 15:41

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Having climbed over 800 points from 1455 to 2270 at noon today in just 2 months from March 9 to today May 7, a technical

pullback may be soon due although it can be argued that this rally with a vengeance is to compensate for the reverse one-way

street last Sept/Oct which saw a massive 1130-point crash from 2600 to 1474 in just one month. As we are still early in the

month, “sell in May and go away” may not be wrong if the STI runs up to 2400-2500 in the next 1-2 weeks as fund managers

could be locking it their profits ahead of the June holidays. Retail players who wish to be ahead of fund managers should start

selling as the STI should meet resistance around 2350-2400 even if they were to miss selling at the top in the event the rally

extends to 2500-2600 as a sharper correction is more likely then.

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Eddyson
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09-May-2009 15:24

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Super bear in ICU, oxygen supply cut off already.Si kieu kieu....now arranging for post mortem to see why Ah bear die.If I am not wrong, many of the shares' price already cross MA200 to comfirm a bull phase . Smiley

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Eddyson
Senior

09-May-2009 15:10

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Whaa...Dow up again, this time 164.8 pts.Wonder STI will follow or not, luckily Friday closed 3 pts down so got energy to cheong again.

Luckily I bought all at one go last month- if it's the bottom, hosey leow. Smiley

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HLJHLJ
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09-May-2009 01:38

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Dow up! Good news. US side is quite positive. Joblessness less severe now. Monday will be cheong for SGX, i think.
This is like flywheel, once moved, it will gather momentum if no other perturbations.

From Yahoo:

Wall Street Swings Higher Following Jobs Report, Stress Test Data- AP

Stocks are higher midday as investors find relief in better-than-expected jobs data and confirmation that big banks don't need as much capital as feared. Bank shares are mostly higher following the release of the government's "stress tests."

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richtan
Supreme

08-May-2009 23:55

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Hahahaha.... DIE C**K STAND lah, Sing Au Lang Sang leow, 3rd degree burnt to death. ICU also cant save them with skin grafting leow.

Andrew ( Date: 08-May-2009 14:41) Posted:

I wonder how are those playing CFD short doing ? Must be some nightmare for them......I think this week 300 pts......WOW...so good.....

HLJHLJ ( Date: 08-May-2009 13:46) Posted:

I was expecting a correction but up it goes! Look strong! I think funds are buying.
Worst over!

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richtan
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08-May-2009 23:24

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Super Bear in ICU....

lookcc ( Date: 08-May-2009 21:33) Posted:

superbear now in coma.

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lookcc
Master

08-May-2009 21:37

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not surprised if it stays tat way for another two mths.

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lookcc
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08-May-2009 21:33

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superbear now in coma.

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DnApeh
Master

08-May-2009 20:19

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it will take a superbull to kill the superbear.

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iPunter
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08-May-2009 19:36

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Yup... we're seeing a runaway bull market...

Those who have already bought cheap-cheap and will hold is the way to go...

But those who've been holding their stocks all the way down from last year will be 'sian'... Smiley

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cyjjerry85
Elite

08-May-2009 19:27

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this has been an incredible week with majority didn't expect it at all...the volumes are amazing and mouth-dropping...day after day this week...volumes r simply impressive...5 Billion today!

HLJHLJ ( Date: 08-May-2009 13:46) Posted:

I was expecting a correction but up it goes! Look strong! I think funds are buying.
Worst over!

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cheongwee
Elite

08-May-2009 18:05

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to cathylmg and all...alway cut your lose fast..must have cut lose rule.

Friday, May 8, 2009

Whitelist Us

Buy and Hold is Dead… Do This Instead

By Jon Herring

If there is one rule of investing you should follow, let it be this: Cut your losers short and let your winners ride. Nothing else will keep you out of more trouble and make you more money than this.

But while it is an easy rule to grasp, it can be the hardest one to follow. Human nature makes it difficult to admit when we are wrong. This is why so many investors hold on to losers with a religious fervor, refusing to sell. Human nature also makes us greedy and protective of our gains when we are right. And that’s why we’re so eager to take profits on a 20% winner.

Trailing stops work wonders for keeping your emotions in check. They allow your winners to run and they serve to get you out when the trend changes direction or the trade goes against you. You should employ trailing stops with all your individual investments.

But what about your portfolio as a whole? Is there a way to determine when to be in the market and when to sit it out? Are there timing tools you can use to help determine your investment allocations?

Absolutely… and two of my investing mentors recently shared their particular long-term timing tools. Both strategies use moving averages to determine the prevailing trend.

Dr. Steve Sjuggerud puts it very simply:

“The trend idea is really simple... Are stocks above or below their recent average prices? If stocks are above their recent average, then you want to own them. If they're below it, then you don't want to own them.”

The “recent average” Steve often uses to determine the overall trend is the 45-week moving average. The 45-week is somewhat arbitrary, I expect. The 200-day or the 52-week might offer good signals as well. But in reviewing the historical performance, Steve found that using the 45-week moving average as a trigger provides the best odds. Particularly, he applies this signal to the S&P 500. Using data going back to 1927, here is what Steve found:

When the S&P 500 is trading ABOVE its 45-week moving average (this has been the case two-thirds of the time) stocks compound at an 11% annual rate.

When the S&P 500 is trading BELOW its 45-week moving average (this has been the case one-third of the time) stocks lose 6% per year.

In a recent letter Steve showed the results of a strategy that sells stocks and moves into cash when the S&P 500 breaks below its 45-week moving… and buys stocks when the S&P is trading above that line.

Not only does this strategy outperform “buy and hold” by a wide margin. It would have cut your losses greatly in the two big market drops, from 2000 to 2003 and again from 2007 to today. Steve also showed that the same strategy works exceedingly well in commodities.

INTERNAL ENDORSEMENT

If you made more than 219% last year then you don’t need this strategy!

Last year was one of the worst years in history for the stock market. But this strategy saw hefty gains.
Learn the secrets to success in any market from two of the world’s greatest financial minds.

How they did it in the most awful market since the Great Depression...

Just like trailing stops, the goal of a trend-following system is simple: to avoid the big downtrends and catch the majority of the uptrends.

My colleague, Rick Pendergraft has recently written about a similar strategy that has also yielded superior long-term results.

Rick watches the 6-month and the 12-month moving averages on the S&P. Rick would advise you to allocate heavily toward stocks when the 6-month moving average crosses above the 12-month. And he would advise you to sell stocks (or allocate more heavily toward bonds and cash) when the 6-month moves below the 12-month.

As you can see, Rick’s strategy would have also put you on the right side of the major trends, helping you to avoid the big drops while getting back in near the bottom.

.

It is impossible to time tops and bottoms in the market with absolute precision and consistency. The great news is that you don’t have to. The long-term moving averages can give you an accurate signal for when the primary trend of the market has shifted.

When the market is in a confirmed downtrend, you should greatly reduce your allocation to stocks in favor of bonds and cash. When the market has confirmed the uptrend, increase your allocation to stocks. As simple as it may be, history clearly shows that you CAN time the market with this strategy. And it sure beats “buy and hold.”

To Your Success,

Jon Herring

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cheongwee
Elite

08-May-2009 17:53

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hi cathylmg...u mistaken me..we haven't really see jade and centiollion ..rally strongly yet.

but i thk and hope dow 1000 and sti 2600 to 2800..by end sept we will see them come alive...of course with no major bad news...right nw the mentality of invester is that market bottom, so even with bad news ppl have come to except it for nw..anyway so many bad news become season to it already....unless it is extremely and really bad like JP Morgan bankrupt for example..

if not ,, then we see rally till sept....why end sept...becos that is when the coy reporting...this is my personnal prediction only..pls DYODD.

i thk buy pennies for the next stage of rally..blues ones look over stretch..

but i thk to be safe buy solid one , if u got stuck also no worry...counter like Armstrong, Mermaid, Stamfordld..Spore Ship...you check it out..

but if u really can take the heat and punches..use your profit for jade and centillion for pure gamble..DYODD

wish u well ..happy Vesak.

cathylmg ( Date: 08-May-2009 16:44) Posted:

So do you mean that its time to grab your last bite and hit the road?

cheongwee ( Date: 08-May-2009 16:43) Posted:

How do we know rally is going to end???

People said when u see Jade ,centillion, those empty shell also run, anddSGX make enquiries.on them due to high vol.....time to say goodbye..to rally...

it is like the finale of olympic game...

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cathylmg
Elite

08-May-2009 16:44

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So do you mean that its time to grab your last bite and hit the road?

cheongwee ( Date: 08-May-2009 16:43) Posted:

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cheongwee
Elite

08-May-2009 16:43

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cheongwee
Elite

08-May-2009 16:35

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Yes, i agree..i thk blues appear tired...time to look at pennies..

i love them, it run faster in % term.

time to build psotion here..sell blue and put the $ to roll here for max gain.

cathylmg ( Date: 08-May-2009 16:10) Posted:

Seems like the 3rd liners have just come alive as of today.:)

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cheongwee
Elite

08-May-2009 16:32

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Hi guy,

We knew that this so call stress test on bank is nothing more than a scam to increase invester confidence..till the next bomb drop( we dont know where and when)..dow will go to 10000...sti 2600 to 2800...hope we reach there first.

The most important thing in the market is invester confidence...when they put money back into the market, the economy will turn up, then all crises will filter throught..disolve by itself..hopefully become history.

Wish all happy Vesak Day...sadhu..sadhu..sadhu...may the rally continue for good of the world..

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cathylmg
Elite

08-May-2009 16:10

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Seems like the 3rd liners have just come alive as of today.:)

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