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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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HLJHLJ
Veteran |
15-Jul-2009 00:01
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Nice chart. Just an FA from fundsupermart.com to support your analysis. STI to cross 3,200 points by 2011 Earnings season is upon us again, with Singapore-listed companies reporting results for the second quarter of 2009. Earnings will be scrutinised for signs of improvement, and any positive surprises will undoubtedly send the stock market higher. While we are not terribly excited about the prospects of earnings in 2Q ’09 (they are still likely to be lower from the year-ago quarter given that the Singapore economy started to turn negative only in 2Q ’08), they will provide an important gauge of business conditions and will add on to the accuracy of forward earnings forecasts. For valuation metrics, we are looking ahead to more normalised conditions in 2011 where earnings will reflect a state of growth, rather than in 2009 when the economy is expected to contract by as much as 6%. Based on estimated earnings growth of 12.3% in 2010 and 14.3% in 2011 for the Singapore market, we arrive at a 3,262 point target for the STI by 2011 (based on a fair value PE multiple of 17X). Of course, if 2Q ’09 earnings surprise on the upside, there will be little doubt that forward earnings will be revised upwards which means that a 3,262 point target in two-years will prove to be conservative. We will watch these earnings numbers closely and make revisions where necessary. We maintain our 4.5 star “Very Attractive” rating on the Singapore equity market. |
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richtan
Supreme |
14-Jul-2009 21:35
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Below is my daily line chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers. My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA. If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start making unconstructive comments. This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd. 
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ozone2002
Supreme |
14-Jul-2009 21:11
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x 1
x 0 Alert Admin |
STI surged on low vol <1bil also..have to be cautious.. my money is on the markets to have a correction...
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iPunter
Supreme |
14-Jul-2009 20:07
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x 0
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Unfortunately, that seems to work only with IE7, but not IE8 or Firefox... It can be very frustrating!.. 
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el7888
Veteran |
14-Jul-2009 19:53
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x 0
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Hi timewatch, Is this what you want? If you are on poems web site, for each stock that you see, you can right click and than select "trade summary". A pop-up screen will be displayed as below.
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timewatch
Senior |
14-Jul-2009 17:29
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if i want to check a perticular stock- on a daily basis where do i check the volume bought on that day and where do i check the volume sold the same day. for that perticular stock. thanks | ||||
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iPunter
Supreme |
14-Jul-2009 16:21
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x 0
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Sentiment would depend on the news... More positive news items means more positive sentiment!  |
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boyikao3
Master |
14-Jul-2009 14:50
Yells: "Money or reputation ?" |
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x 0
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Interesting observation. Another observation : May transaction volume at 58 B, and June at 42.2 B. That is a drop of 27%. Another observation: Last Thursday STI surge of 47.84 points and has a volume of 1.28B. What was yesterday's volume when it corrected and how many points drop? (someone help me fill in the gap please?) STI Vol now stands at 0.565 B but surged 45 points at 2.45pm. I wonder what could these stats be indicating?  |
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aleoleo
Master |
14-Jul-2009 13:32
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judging from the low volumes during market sell-offs and the relative strength of the STI, which hovers around 2300, a mere 5% from June 2 year’s high of 2425. This implies that fund managers are still relatively bullish and hopeful of sustainability of earnings recovery in the event of a double dip recession in 2010 which should be much milder than the latest one which had dragged on for about a year.
The stock market being a leading indicator 6 to 9 months going forward, another upleg past 2425 resistance to 2500-2700 will mean
risk of a Wshaped recovery can be ruled out in first half 2010.
But if the STI fails to convincingly break 2425 in coming weeks, making a new minor top around 2450 and worse still take a major downturn
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dealer0168
Elite |
14-Jul-2009 12:09
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starlene
Elite |
14-Jul-2009 12:00
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x 0
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National day rally? > good news | ||||
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richtan
Supreme |
14-Jul-2009 11:55
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Asian Stocks Climb on Earnings Optimism; Posco, Komatsu Advance By Jonathan Burgos July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose, lifting the MSCI Asia Pacific Index from an eight-week low, as Posco raised its production target and Singapore upgraded its forecast for economic growth. Posco, South Korea’s largest steelmaker, climbed 3.5 percent in Seoul after saying 2009 output may be 6.4 percent higher than forecast. Komatsu Ltd., the world’s No. 2 maker of earthmoving equipment, surged 6.3 percent after the Nikkei English News said the company likely posted an operating profit in the April-June quarter. DBS Group Holdings Ltd., Southeast Asia’s biggest bank, gained 2.5 percent in Singapore. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.9 percent to 99.90 as of 12:12 p.m. in Tokyo after yesterday closing at its lowest level since May 18. The index had rallied 42 percent from a more than five-year low on March 9 on optimism stimulus policies around the world will revive the global economy. “The recovery is gaining traction,” said Nader Naeimi, a strategist at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney, which manages about $95 billion. “Even if we don’t see spectacular growth, a stabilization should be enough to support a market rally.” Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 2.6 percent, with NEC Electronics Corp. surging 10 percent after the Nikkei said the company will boost production. Kirin Holdings Co. gained 1.9 percent after confirming it’s in merger talks with Suntory Holdings Ltd. Coal Shipments Singapore’s Straits Times Index gained 2.2 percent. The S&P/ASX 200 Index in Australia climbed 2.6 percent, led by mining company BHP Billiton, which jumped 3.9 percent as coal shipments from the country’s Newcastle port climbed. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed. The gauge rallied 2.5 percent yesterday, led by finance shares after analyst Meredith Whitney said U.S. bank stocks will likely rise 15 percent. She recommended investors buy Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Raw material producers accounted for 15 percent of the MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s advance today. Posco climbed 3.5 percent to 445,000 won. The company announced its new production target after the market closed yesterday as it reported second-quarter profit that beat analyst estimates. Komatsu rose 6.3 percent to 1,377 yen. The company will likely report about 5 billion yen ($54 million) in operating profit for the three months to June, recovering from a loss in the previous quarter, the Nikkei newspaper reported. Demand in emerging markets, including China, and cost cuts contributed to earnings, the newspaper said. World’s Best Investments “Stimulus measures will soon start to take effect in emerging countries such as China and India, and people are snapping up companies that will benefit from their revival,” said Yoshihiro Ito, senior strategist at Okasan Asset Management Co., which oversees about $7.7 billion. Chinese stocks are among the world’s best investments because the nation’s economic growth is poised to exceed forecasts, according to Barton Biggs, who runs New York-based hedge fund Traxis Partners LP. The Shanghai Composite Index added 1.4 percent today. NEC Electronics, Japan’s fourth-largest chipmaker, surged 10 percent to 818 yen after the Nikkei reported the company will bolster use of its plant in Kumamoto prefecture, southwestern Japan, to about 70 percent. Kirin, Japan’s largest drinks maker, added 1.9 percent to 1,419 yen. The stock extended yesterday’s 7.8 percent surge after the Nikkei newspaper reported Kirin and closely held Suntory were discussing a merger. The companies are in the “early stage” of discussions and no decision has been made, Kirin said in a statement to Tokyo’s Stock Exchange today. Economic Growth In Singapore, DBS gained 2.5 percent to S$11.70. CapitaLand Ltd., the city’s biggest developer, rose 2.4 percent to S$3.39. Singapore’s gross domestic product will shrink between 4 percent and 6 percent this year, less than an earlier forecast for a contraction of as much as 9 percent, the trade ministry said today. The economy grew an annualized 20.4 percent last quarter from the previous three months, after declining a revised 12.7 percent between January and March, it said. “Early signs of a global recovery have now emerged,” Alan Bollard, governor of the New Zealand central bank said today. Australian business sentiment turned positive in June for the first time since December 2007, a National Australia Bank Ltd. index released today showed. The stock rally since March has lifted the average valuation of companies on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to 41 times reported profit, more than double the 15 times stocks were trading at during the market’s trough that month. ‘Getting More Cautious’ “Today’s gains might still be a bit short-lived,” said Steven Leung, a Hong Kong-based director of institutional sales at UOB-Kay Hian Ltd. “People have been getting more cautious as valuations aren’t as attractive as a couple of months ago. Most of my institutional clients have a very high level of cash in hand.” Melbourne-based BHP jumped 3.9 percent to A$33.47, while Rio Tinto Group added 3.2 percent to A$48.11. The companies are among those that ship coal through Newcastle, the world’s biggest export harbor for the fuel. Coal shipments from the port gained 11 percent last week while the number of vessels waiting to load decreased, Newcastle Port Corp. said on its Web site. Mitsubishi Corp., which operates an alliance with BHP that is the world’s biggest exporter of coking coal, climbed 4.4 percent to 1,631 yen in Tokyo. To contact the reporter on this story: Jonathan Burgos in Singapore at jburgos4@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: July 13, 2009 23:13 EDT |
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el7888
Veteran |
14-Jul-2009 11:25
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x 0
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Updated: 14th July 2009, 1011 hrs Singapore economy now expected to contract 4%-6% The Government has revised upwards its forecast for the Singapore economy. The Ministry of Trade and Industry now expects the economy to contract between 4 and 6 per cent in 2009. This compared to its forecast of a contraction of between 6 and 9 per cent made in April. The revised forecast follows an upward revision of the first quarter economic performance and a spike in biomedical manufacturing output leading to improved second quarter performance. Advance estimates for the second quarter indicate a moderation in the rate of economic contraction. Compared to the same period last year, MTI said real GDP is expected to contract by 3.7 per cent, compared to the 9.6 per cent contraction registered in the first quarter of 2009. Compared to the first quarter of this year, 2nd quarter growth was 20.4 per cent,, an improvement from the 12.7 per cent contraction experienced in the previous quarter. It's the first quarterly expansion in 5 quarters. Manufacturing is estimated to have contracted by 1.5 per cent. Overall, the services producing industries remained weak; contracting by 5.1 per cent in the second quarter, similar to the first quarter. MTI says notwithstanding the improved performance in the second quarter, the outlook for the rest of the year remains largely unchanged - of a weak recovery susceptible to downside risks. |
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des_khor
Supreme |
14-Jul-2009 11:16
Yells: "Tell me who is the God or MFT from this forum??" |
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
No way man... still believe the market will do well despite all the bad news...maybe start in August after all the company report been release.
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el7888
Veteran |
14-Jul-2009 11:09
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
This is the right tactic.
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Hulumas
Supreme |
14-Jul-2009 11:00
Yells: "INVEST but not TRADE please!" |
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Keep short selling then?!
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ozone2002
Supreme |
14-Jul-2009 10:54
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Dow surged on low vol..i'll be cautious in going long now..despite all the "good news" | ||||
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des_khor
Supreme |
14-Jul-2009 10:49
Yells: "Tell me who is the God or MFT from this forum??" |
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
In most case market always behave this way.... buy on rumorous , sell on news . | ||||
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boyikao3
Master |
14-Jul-2009 10:37
Yells: "Money or reputation ?" |
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
The rally will go on and on! Sing 2nd Q GDP surge 20%, US CIT gana bailed out (99%), Goldman Sachs earnings upgrade, JP Morgan also earnings upgrade - How can market go down in this sea of optimism and green green riverside grass?
unless thr river dries up or worst still, is only a late summer mirage.... |
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el7888
Veteran |
14-Jul-2009 10:32
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
You are right. The volumes are still low in most counters. | ||||
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