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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
cheongwee
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15-Aug-2009 13:29     
 
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Look here, look at the chart....,,,,coming your way, and if the chart is true, the source is accurate...we are in for big storm ahead....

good luck to all and myself.......

 

20090721 chart2
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cheongwee
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15-Aug-2009 13:25     
 
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you are right, actually recession is normal, a way market digest the gain...just like ppl eat, and eat...come a time they must go toilet..

but right now, ppl said why must go toilet,,,it is smelly,and i dont like it..,,,i will try to make and delay...very soon, they end up worse and in the operating theartre...

the best is to let those institution that are weak to go under, and let the strong takeover...then thing will be faster turn around...but meddling with it, trying to delay because scare alot of ppl will go bust , go jobless...and becos of political disadvantage..

the resulyt will be a long winter....and this it is....we are at the begining, not the end...



ozone2002      ( Date: 15-Aug-2009 13:18) Posted:

Throughout time, the markets have gone through ups, downs, peaks, valleys, highs and lows. Mark Twain said, "History does not repeat exactly, however, often it rhymes." This bear market, which began on October 11, 2008, is now being compared to the 1929 stock crash, which consequentially lead to the great depression. Perhaps this is a repeat of what took place some eighty years ago. In my personal studies of bear markets going back to the 1800's, it seems as if there is one common denominator for the cause, the over extension of credit. The longer the period of prosperity, the more severe the decline. Many believe the most recent bull market began in 1982 with the Reagan administration. By looking at the charts, this looks very likely. From the Reagan era all the way up to year 2000, the market took off, although it did encounter some bumps along the road (1987 to mention a one). The market seemed to recover from the savings and loan crisis, junk bonds and LBO's, late 1980's housing crisis, cold war, Long Term Capital blowup, the tech bubble, Enron, MCI Worldcom, Adelphia, September 11th, and now the most recent subprime loans, derivatives and credit bubble. There is a lot more that could have been put on that list but for the scope of this writing those will suffice. With all of these events taking place over the last 25 years and the markets still managing to make new highs into 2007, is it any wonder that the economy is where it is today, in crisis?


Let's examine some bear markets from the past and see how this one matches up to history. The market crashed in 1857, but began its decline in the 1856 peak. A slight recovery took place in 1859 and dropped again in 1861. In 1862, it recovered until 1865(Civil War). In 1865 the market declined until 1871, which lasted until 1873. In 1873 the market crashed and the U.S. went into a depression that lasted into 1879. This was a 6 year depression. This historical bear market looks very similar to the market of today. The causes of each are always very similar and this bear market is no exception. If this time factor were to repeat that would call for the current bear market to bottom in 2013, this certainly looks like a possibility. Now let's examine the 1929 stock crash. The 1929 market crash was a result of easy credit and over speculation which is exactly what we are witnessing today. This decline lasted until 1933 before slightly recovering. Many traders believe a real recovery did not happen until 1942(WWII). That being the case then the next bull market did not occur for another 13 years.


Which bear market is this? Personally, I believe that this bear market began in 2000. However, with all the intervention taking place the market was never allowed to function as it should and the business cycle was forced into a massive bubble for the second time. After the 2000 bear market began, interest rates were lowered to 1% causing a huge credit bubble. The bear market that was supposed to begin in 2000, was stalled. We are now seeing it but because of the stall, it is far worse. Instead of the bear decline generally being half the length of the bull market it now gets extended. 2000 minus 1982 equals 18 years. Therefore, the bear market that followed should have lasted 9 years and would be coming to an end this year. However, we now need to extend out to 2007. Using 2007 and subtracting 1982 gives us 25 years. Half of 25 is 12.5 years and that simple calculation puts this bear market into late 2012-2013 before a real recovery takes place.


As long as modern man consistently tries to advance in society, the business cycle should ultimately recover. It is when man interferes with the system that these problems can last longer, not function normally and will be much more severe. Some may argue that it is better to get hit hard and fast and begin a recovery. However, this constant interference is death by a thousand razor cuts and prolongs the bear.

In 2004, I recall reading a statement made by the late great trader and technician Sir John Templeton. He simply stated that housing prices should not be any higher than 1991 levels and will ultimately go back to those prices. Most traders and investors that I discussed this with said he was old and probably suffering from memory loss. It is now evident that he was dead on accurate and as sharp as ever. History speaks words of wisdom in plentiful doses. Hopefully future generations will be willing to obtain some of this wisdom and learn from the greats before them.



Source: Nicholas Santiago,
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ozone2002
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15-Aug-2009 13:22     
 
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Insiders Continue to Sell, Sell, Sell

We have to send a tip of the hat, to ultra popular finance blogger at Zerohedge.com for alerting us to the huge number of insiders who are selling off stock in their companies.

We have noted this sort of activity over the last few months and it appears that corporate insiders are selling with increased fervor. In late April (Insiders Are Selling Into the Rally), insiders were selling at a rate of 8.3 times the amount that insiders were buying. When we revisited the issue about two months later in June (More Evidence of Skepticism from Insiders), insiders had become even more bearish as they were selling at a rate of 9 times for each insider buy.

Now, we are nearly two months later and the ratio of sellers to buyers continues to expand. In the last week, corporate insiders sold 13.6 times more than insiders bought according to information compiled by Finviz. In terms of per transaction value, the sellers are being more aggressive than the buyers as well. Of course, this is not necessarily a sign that the market is about to falter. However, it is always interesting to see what the insiders are doing because they are some of the very most informed investors. Management may be sounding an optimistic tone on many conference calls, but actions speak louder than words. Clearly, the trends are suggesting that stocks are overbought right now, and insiders are lowering their exposure to risk.
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ozone2002
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15-Aug-2009 13:18     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Throughout time, the markets have gone through ups, downs, peaks, valleys, highs and lows. Mark Twain said, "History does not repeat exactly, however, often it rhymes." This bear market, which began on October 11, 2008, is now being compared to the 1929 stock crash, which consequentially lead to the great depression. Perhaps this is a repeat of what took place some eighty years ago. In my personal studies of bear markets going back to the 1800's, it seems as if there is one common denominator for the cause, the over extension of credit. The longer the period of prosperity, the more severe the decline. Many believe the most recent bull market began in 1982 with the Reagan administration. By looking at the charts, this looks very likely. From the Reagan era all the way up to year 2000, the market took off, although it did encounter some bumps along the road (1987 to mention a one). The market seemed to recover from the savings and loan crisis, junk bonds and LBO's, late 1980's housing crisis, cold war, Long Term Capital blowup, the tech bubble, Enron, MCI Worldcom, Adelphia, September 11th, and now the most recent subprime loans, derivatives and credit bubble. There is a lot more that could have been put on that list but for the scope of this writing those will suffice. With all of these events taking place over the last 25 years and the markets still managing to make new highs into 2007, is it any wonder that the economy is where it is today, in crisis?


Let's examine some bear markets from the past and see how this one matches up to history. The market crashed in 1857, but began its decline in the 1856 peak. A slight recovery took place in 1859 and dropped again in 1861. In 1862, it recovered until 1865(Civil War). In 1865 the market declined until 1871, which lasted until 1873. In 1873 the market crashed and the U.S. went into a depression that lasted into 1879. This was a 6 year depression. This historical bear market looks very similar to the market of today. The causes of each are always very similar and this bear market is no exception. If this time factor were to repeat that would call for the current bear market to bottom in 2013, this certainly looks like a possibility. Now let's examine the 1929 stock crash. The 1929 market crash was a result of easy credit and over speculation which is exactly what we are witnessing today. This decline lasted until 1933 before slightly recovering. Many traders believe a real recovery did not happen until 1942(WWII). That being the case then the next bull market did not occur for another 13 years.


Which bear market is this? Personally, I believe that this bear market began in 2000. However, with all the intervention taking place the market was never allowed to function as it should and the business cycle was forced into a massive bubble for the second time. After the 2000 bear market began, interest rates were lowered to 1% causing a huge credit bubble. The bear market that was supposed to begin in 2000, was stalled. We are now seeing it but because of the stall, it is far worse. Instead of the bear decline generally being half the length of the bull market it now gets extended. 2000 minus 1982 equals 18 years. Therefore, the bear market that followed should have lasted 9 years and would be coming to an end this year. However, we now need to extend out to 2007. Using 2007 and subtracting 1982 gives us 25 years. Half of 25 is 12.5 years and that simple calculation puts this bear market into late 2012-2013 before a real recovery takes place.


As long as modern man consistently tries to advance in society, the business cycle should ultimately recover. It is when man interferes with the system that these problems can last longer, not function normally and will be much more severe. Some may argue that it is better to get hit hard and fast and begin a recovery. However, this constant interference is death by a thousand razor cuts and prolongs the bear.

In 2004, I recall reading a statement made by the late great trader and technician Sir John Templeton. He simply stated that housing prices should not be any higher than 1991 levels and will ultimately go back to those prices. Most traders and investors that I discussed this with said he was old and probably suffering from memory loss. It is now evident that he was dead on accurate and as sharp as ever. History speaks words of wisdom in plentiful doses. Hopefully future generations will be willing to obtain some of this wisdom and learn from the greats before them.



Source: Nicholas Santiago,
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ronleech
Master
15-Aug-2009 10:13     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Dun trust RBS, thrust too much you will end up like them...going bust...

ozone2002      ( Date: 15-Aug-2009 09:41) Posted:

Nice article i found.. pls heed the advice..not everything is as rosy as it seems

RBS uber-bear issues fresh alert on global stock markets

Three-month slide could hit record lows, Royal Bank of Scotland chief credit strategist Bob Janjuah predicts.

Britain's Uber-bear is growling again. After predicting a torrid "relief rally" over the early summer, Bob Janjuah at Royal Bank of Scotland is advising clients to take profits in global equity and commodity markets and prepare for another storm as winter nears.

"We are now in the middle of a parabolic spike up," he said in his latest confidential note to clients.

"I expect this risk rally to continue into – and maybe through – a large part of August. What happens after that? The next ugly leg of the bear market begins as we get into the July through September 'tipping zone', driven by the failure of the data to validate the V (shaped recovery) that is now fully priced into markets."

The key indicators to watch are business spending on equipment (Capex), incomes, jobs, and profits. Only a "surge higher" in these gauges can justify current asset prices. Results that are merely "less bad" will not suffice.

He expects global stock markets to test their March lows, and probably worse. The slide could last three months. "A move to new lows is highly likely," he said.

Mr Janjuah, RBS's chief credit strategist, has a loyal following in the City. He was one of the very few analysts to speak out early about the dangerous excesses of the credit bubble. He then made waves in the summer of 2008 by issuing a global crash alert, giving warning that a "very nasty period is soon to be upon us" as – indeed it was. Lehman Brothers and AIG imploded weeks later.

This time he expects the S&P 500 index of US equities to reach the "mid 500s", almost halving from current levels near 1000. Such a fall would take London's FTSE 100 to around 2,500. The iTraxx Crossover index measuring spreads on low-grade European debt will double to 1250.
Mr Janjuah advises investors to seek safety in 10-year German bonds in late August or early September.

While media headlines have played up the short-term bounce of corporate earnings, Mr Janjuah said this is a statistical illusion. Profits were in reality down 20pc in the second quarter from the year before. They cannot rise much as the West slowly purges debt and adjusts to record over-capacity. "Investors are again being sucked back into the game where 'markets make opinions', where 'excess liquidity' is the driving investment rationale.

"The last two Augusts proved to be pivotal turning points: August 2007 being the proverbial 'head-fake' when everyone wanted to believe that policy-makers had seen off the credit disaster at the pass, and August 2008 being the calm before the utter collapse of Sept/Oct/Nov… 3rd time lucky anyone?"
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ozone2002
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15-Aug-2009 09:41     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Nice article i found.. pls heed the advice..not everything is as rosy as it seems

RBS uber-bear issues fresh alert on global stock markets

Three-month slide could hit record lows, Royal Bank of Scotland chief credit strategist Bob Janjuah predicts.

Britain's Uber-bear is growling again. After predicting a torrid "relief rally" over the early summer, Bob Janjuah at Royal Bank of Scotland is advising clients to take profits in global equity and commodity markets and prepare for another storm as winter nears.

"We are now in the middle of a parabolic spike up," he said in his latest confidential note to clients.

"I expect this risk rally to continue into – and maybe through – a large part of August. What happens after that? The next ugly leg of the bear market begins as we get into the July through September 'tipping zone', driven by the failure of the data to validate the V (shaped recovery) that is now fully priced into markets."

The key indicators to watch are business spending on equipment (Capex), incomes, jobs, and profits. Only a "surge higher" in these gauges can justify current asset prices. Results that are merely "less bad" will not suffice.

He expects global stock markets to test their March lows, and probably worse. The slide could last three months. "A move to new lows is highly likely," he said.

Mr Janjuah, RBS's chief credit strategist, has a loyal following in the City. He was one of the very few analysts to speak out early about the dangerous excesses of the credit bubble. He then made waves in the summer of 2008 by issuing a global crash alert, giving warning that a "very nasty period is soon to be upon us" as – indeed it was. Lehman Brothers and AIG imploded weeks later.

This time he expects the S&P 500 index of US equities to reach the "mid 500s", almost halving from current levels near 1000. Such a fall would take London's FTSE 100 to around 2,500. The iTraxx Crossover index measuring spreads on low-grade European debt will double to 1250.
Mr Janjuah advises investors to seek safety in 10-year German bonds in late August or early September.

While media headlines have played up the short-term bounce of corporate earnings, Mr Janjuah said this is a statistical illusion. Profits were in reality down 20pc in the second quarter from the year before. They cannot rise much as the West slowly purges debt and adjusts to record over-capacity. "Investors are again being sucked back into the game where 'markets make opinions', where 'excess liquidity' is the driving investment rationale.

"The last two Augusts proved to be pivotal turning points: August 2007 being the proverbial 'head-fake' when everyone wanted to believe that policy-makers had seen off the credit disaster at the pass, and August 2008 being the calm before the utter collapse of Sept/Oct/Nov… 3rd time lucky anyone?"
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cheongwee
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15-Aug-2009 00:12     
 
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why i say u are not far from wrong...or close to wrong is that i thk the rally may last till late summer...

but it is right to take profit if it hit your tg px...



cheongwee      ( Date: 15-Aug-2009 00:10) Posted:

but you are doing right, take some profit off the table...you are definitely not far from wrong..

 



chris168      ( Date: 14-Aug-2009 22:25) Posted:

Pai seh, a bit cheem for me  '...at the end always 90% of them are wrong..'  meaning 90% of the right are wrong ?? blur liao

I have been selling quite a bit these past 2 weeks. Just feel the market  is a bit too euphoric. Time to take some profits off the table.
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cheongwee
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15-Aug-2009 00:10     
 
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but you are doing right, take some profit off the table...you are definitely not far from wrong..

 



chris168      ( Date: 14-Aug-2009 22:25) Posted:

Pai seh, a bit cheem for me  '...at the end always 90% of them are wrong..'  meaning 90% of the right are wrong ?? blur liao

I have been selling quite a bit these past 2 weeks. Just feel the market  is a bit too euphoric. Time to take some profits off the table.



cheongwee      ( Date: 14-Aug-2009 15:14) Posted:

you are right, but i hope you are wrong...because i believe u wish u are wrong also, am i right???

but it is alright to be right,,,,at the end always 90% of them are wrong...

 
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chris168
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14-Aug-2009 22:25     
 
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Pai seh, a bit cheem for me  '...at the end always 90% of them are wrong..'  meaning 90% of the right are wrong ?? blur liao

I have been selling quite a bit these past 2 weeks. Just feel the market  is a bit too euphoric. Time to take some profits off the table.



cheongwee      ( Date: 14-Aug-2009 15:14) Posted:

you are right, but i hope you are wrong...because i believe u wish u are wrong also, am i right???

but it is alright to be right,,,,at the end always 90% of them are wrong...

 



iPunter      ( Date: 14-Aug-2009 13:22) Posted:



With more bearish sentiment in the air, a drawn-out correction is more than likely...yi

The rally which no one expected could have already passed...

This time round, the US printing more money to fund bailouts may not be the the ultimate solution...

As survivalist instincts become gradually and increasingly widespread, consumers would be wary of spending like there's no tomorrow..


In the meantime, China needs to find a viable protection for it's precarious US-based reserves...

All very worrying thoughts... Smiley
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TuaPekGong9413
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14-Aug-2009 15:29     
 
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no eyes to see mart movement liao....think gona end up negative again...like last fri....then mon up again...
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cheongwee
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14-Aug-2009 15:27     
 
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 Alert Admin 		it is gonna u turn now......am i  see a bull trap or a bear trap?
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cheongwee
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14-Aug-2009 15:14     
 
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you are right, but i hope you are wrong...because i believe u wish u are wrong also, am i right???

but it is alright to be right,,,,at the end always 90% of them are wrong...

 



iPunter      ( Date: 14-Aug-2009 13:22) Posted:



With more bearish sentiment in the air, a drawn-out correction is more than likely...yi

The rally which no one expected could have already passed...

This time round, the US printing more money to fund bailouts may not be the the ultimate solution...

As survivalist instincts become gradually and increasingly widespread, consumers would be wary of spending like there's no tomorrow..


In the meantime, China needs to find a viable protection for it's precarious US-based reserves...

All very worrying thoughts... Smiley
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des_khor
Supreme
14-Aug-2009 14:40     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Go liao... n turn...

des_khor      ( Date: 14-Aug-2009 14:33) Posted:

Lai liao... U turn liao...
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cyjjerry85
Elite
14-Aug-2009 14:40     
 
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 Alert Admin 		any updates or comments on the continuous heavy drops from SSE? the DOW has been pretty resilient but during the day we are still pretty much affected by the asian markets ...SSE drop...HSI follow...and STI too
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des_khor
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14-Aug-2009 14:33     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Lai liao... U turn liao...
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iPunter
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14-Aug-2009 13:22     
 
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With more bearish sentiment in the air, a drawn-out correction is more than likely...yi

The rally which no one expected could have already passed...

This time round, the US printing more money to fund bailouts may not be the the ultimate solution...

As survivalist instincts become gradually and increasingly widespread, consumers would be wary of spending like there's no tomorrow..


In the meantime, China needs to find a viable protection for it's precarious US-based reserves...

All very worrying thoughts... Smiley
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aleoleo
Master
14-Aug-2009 13:03     
 
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 Alert Admin 		damn it ... SHA still bleeding alot ... this will affect HSI then STI again ..... buy on dip ?
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hogenterprise
Senior
14-Aug-2009 12:08     
 
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 Alert Admin 		why follow HSI? be a leader.
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cheongwee
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14-Aug-2009 12:05     
 
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Monday will be a big day...up...i got this feeling that CPI will surprise on upside..it have been quite ok so far and wth all those data ard relate to it improving, this one shd improve also...\

dies dies must buy for you,,,dyodd for you...otherwise come Monday i rhk i will cry...
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TuaPekGong9413
Elite
14-Aug-2009 12:03     
 
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 Alert Admin 		weekend plus profit taking....
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