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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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iPunter
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16-Sep-2009 18:51
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Buy and hold is a natural tendency of investors. Similar to the like the behavioric observation of certain primates. These primates hold tight on to a piece of goody food placed in a bottle and refuse to let go even when their trappers come to simply capture them. This is true no matter what price of a stock has become. If the price is higher, they will hold on even tighter, feeling very proud and pleased with themselves and wanting to make even more money. If the price is lower than their buying price, they will also hold even tighter, because they don't want to lose money. And they console themselves that the price is sure to go back up later. Understanding this is winning half the battle. The other half if the battle is won by doing what you understand... hehehe... ![]() (Some will be sure to give me a 'bad post'.) |
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richtan
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16-Sep-2009 18:07
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Hi ragmop15, 1st off, your chart looks too cluttered, messy n very hard on the eyes to interpret, should keep it as clean n as simple as possible, 2nd, Stoch is more for range-bound charts n not very suitable for trending charts (wat I learnt from TA books). Price as 50% retracement does not necessary means it will not go up, if it is bullish n break-up on higher vol, it can head to 61.8% or even higher. Do not pre-empt or pre-judge the chart, let the EOD data tells u n preferably with confirmation the next day unless it is supported by vol on breakout, if the candle break above the 50% n the double top on vol, then tat double-top is invalidated unless otherwise. Generally the emas are all trending up n remember, "The trend is your friend" till it changes course (read my 3 golden mantras in the "General", "Trading Techniques", "Advices to newbies" thread). Basically, I m not bothered whether it is a long-term bull or bear, as I trade day to day based on my interpretation of the EOD data of tat particular stock n STI just serves as a guide as individual counters have their own characteristics n do not necessary follow the STI to the tee everyday though generally it might (there are stocks tat on down-trend while STI is on up-trend n vice-versa). I pay more attention to the candlesticks, their pattern formation, vol, support, resistance, fibo and just a few lagging indicators like MACD, RSI n divergence to support my interpretation of the leading indicators. I will post my STI chart later on after I have updated my EOD data n when time permits. Read below articles: From http://skybach.wordpress.com/ September 13, 2009 • 11:34 am 0 Trend Following = Buy and Hold + SellThe typical “investors” will adopt a buy and hold strategy. Such a strategy develops because from literature and common speak, “investors” are seen as having little involvement in the market after having done their “research”. On top of that, from some other sources, Technical Analysis is often frowned upon because it is often associated with intraday traders, quick and dirty money, complex, unreliable and bankruptcy in the end. These 2 main misconceptions and misinformation has led many people to adopt extreme ends of fundamental analysis and technical analysis. it is the former. “Investors” adopting the buy and hold strategy are usually “losers” with no sell strategy. The main purpose of being in the market is to make money. Without a sell strategy, the “loser” usually sells when their investments shows a fundamental change, which usually is known after their investment has shown a loss. Fundamental analysis is ideal for stock picking, but take those research material with a pinch of salt. Technical analysis is still needed to verify that the stock is moving. Likewise, technical analysis is also needed to inform the investor that the stock has stopped moving for the long term. It is only this way that the long term investor is able to cash out before the investment becomes a liability. Technical Analysis need not be complex. The complexity is often increased with increased usage of indicators and constant switching between them. Technical analysis can be simple if one limits to not more than 5. Personally I will recommend at most 3 that you are most comfortable with and master them. Simple charting like trendline drawing, identification of support and resistance level is more than enough for the average investors. Technical Analysis need not be for the short haul and can be used for medium to long term. Whether it is short term depends on whether the stock is a good trending stock. If a stock oscillates, using Technical Analysis will certainly give alot of buy and sell signals. A good trending stock will usually dip very little in a market correction. Therefore investors should do a final round of filtering based on their trend. Once the trend ends, investors should just cash out. Filed under: Thots
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Sporeguy
Elite |
16-Sep-2009 17:39
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ragmop, yr use of stoch in the second chart seems to contradict some of richtan prediction of using macd. It will be good if you can add stoch 21d or more in yr first chart because yr 1st chart looks like waves 1 to 5 has completed followed by bearish waves a,b and c (red arrow shown ), but I think a stoch of longer d shold be used in the 1st chart to confirm rather using stoch of shorter d. | ||||
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baby88
Member |
16-Sep-2009 17:30
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It there market open next Tuesday??? Hari Raya??? | ||||
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dealer0168
Elite |
16-Sep-2009 17:11
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The power of last wave should be a strong one. Hope now we are riding on the wave. Cheers. |
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ragmop15
Member |
16-Sep-2009 16:56
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Im still not so bullish. I dunno why. Am I a perma bear? Just thinking out loud. Hi Richtan, thank you for sharing your charts. These are my charts. I basically check on trendlines and use fibo and a little tech indicators only (I prefer stochs). Can you let me know if there is something wrong with them? I still am not convinced with the rally since it didnt break the 50% fibo convincingly so I feel this will form into a double top formation and today could be a trap? Its been more than a month from Aug and everybody is so bullish but if you check the charts, we gained so little since then. Any thoughts? ![]() ![]() |
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Hulumas
Supreme |
16-Sep-2009 16:13
![]() Yells: "INVEST but not TRADE please!" |
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Be ready all China related stocks will rise average of about 83% in 2H 2009!!!
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des_khor
Supreme |
16-Sep-2009 15:56
![]() Yells: "Tell me who is the God or MFT from this forum??" |
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2700....coming !!! | ||||
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baseerahmed
Master |
16-Sep-2009 15:53
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hi boyikao3 .. is it possible to upload some charts to follow ur thoughts .... ? thanks .. : ) |
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smartrader
Elite |
16-Sep-2009 15:52
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Did anyone make profits from Sep 08 to Feb 09 ? If the answer is yes, then you will understand the words " beauty of the stock market".... the fittest survives and grow stronger in times of crisis.. | ||||
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boyikao3
Master |
16-Sep-2009 15:45
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Of course SSE will break 10000 eventually. Not sure it will reach within next 2 years because it is the last chance for a SSE bull 5th supercycle wave before a Grand Super Cycle Bear correction patiently waits ahead. Easy if you want to test it out - just keep buying untill end of Year of Tiger and keep for 5 years ![]()
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boyikao3
Master |
16-Sep-2009 15:35
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Aiyoh, see what I told you? Currently, S&P 500 bullish sentiments is at 90%. Give and take another 5% more will see the monster getting ready to slam them down.![]()
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des_khor
Supreme |
16-Sep-2009 15:35
![]() Yells: "Tell me who is the God or MFT from this forum??" |
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Yes ! over take DOW... haha
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Hulumas
Supreme |
16-Sep-2009 15:33
![]() Yells: "INVEST but not TRADE please!" |
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Oh yes, SSE will break 10,000 is quite possible.
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des_khor
Supreme |
16-Sep-2009 15:29
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Agreed!
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iPunter
Supreme |
16-Sep-2009 15:27
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When money is involved, caution is preferred to confidence, especially when dealing with a monster beast like the stock market... It has proven time again, to most people, never-failingly, to be a naughty monster...
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des_khor
Supreme |
16-Sep-2009 15:20
![]() Yells: "Tell me who is the God or MFT from this forum??" |
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Bear also extremely fear in people too. | ||||
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iPunter
Supreme |
16-Sep-2009 15:19
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hahaha... As usual, bulls are extremely confident people... ![]() |
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des_khor
Supreme |
16-Sep-2009 15:10
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Wait for another 9 years again! | ||||
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iPunter
Supreme |
16-Sep-2009 15:06
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You can be sure a shunamic meltdown fall can never happen again now, but we are not talking about that kind of a meltdown... We are talking about normal 'routine' market corrections. This things are not obvious at all. They happen very gradually over many months, then on a day to day basis, no one finds anything 'fishy' about it... It's the natural market marching beat... ![]() |
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