Yes, as I mentioned too that no one knows what is going to happen in future. Go with the trend. 

Thanks for enlightening, although i am still quite blur.

If the period from Oct 07 to Mar 09 is clearly a 5-wave impulsive structure, why do you call this "wave A" ? Isn't it better to call it "wave 1" if it is impulsive? ( This will then mean that we are in wave 2 presently.) This will then mean that we will be expecting TWO major downturns ahead, bringing the index progressively lower, OMG!

On the other hand, by saying that the said period is "wave A" (ie, using monthly charts, implying that the said period is a 3-wave therefore corrective structure), it means to me that we are now in "wave B", and that we can expect a "wave C" that will break the MAR 09 lows. It also means that after "wave C" is over, the corrective phase will be over.

I will continue to read up more about EW.  Is there any book that you can recommend?

boyikao3      ( Date: 19-Sep-2009 23:23) Posted: Thanks ah peh for your interesting post. Both of your scenarios are right, you just need to combine them together. Corrective waves are always in 3s. But because the structure of primary A wave that ended in March 09 is clearly a 5 wave impulsive structure (and we know that correctives are never 5s), then we know that the whole correction has not ended yet. We are now in a wave B which in itself, subdivides into another zig-zag, which again is a 5(a)-3(b).5(c) structure. We are currently (if not wrong) going to start the final wave 3 of 5 of (c), after 2 has found a near term bottom. When the full subdivision is complete, then primary wave C should start its impulsive 5 waves downwards. According to Elliott rules, a zig zag C wave will always carry prices lower than the end of wave A and wave C often has the same length as wave A. So you are right that there is another leg lower that should give us a lower STI than March bottom!!! Well done! DnApeh      ( Date: 19-Sep-2009 20:15) Posted: Hi again boyikao3. For STI, for the period between the high of Oct 07 and  the low of Mar 09, I seem to get a different count of the number of waves within this period of time when i use different timeframes. When i use daily chart and weekly chart, i get 5 waves in the said period. When i use monthly chart, i can only count 3 waves. Since corrections are generally 3 waves affairs, i come up with 2 vastly different scenerios. i am quite interested in the number of waves in this particular period of time because if it is 3 (based on monthly charts), it means that this period is corrective and hence, STI will be trying to break its all-time high via a series of its next 5 waves. Hence, your "wave B" may turn out to be a "wave 1". On the other hand, if this particalur period is composed of 5 waves (based on my reading of the daily and weekly charts), then STI is in a prolonged down cycle, meaning that the rally from Mar 09 till presently is corrective, and there are TWO more large falls to be expected ahead, and the Mar 09 lows will NOT hold. Please give your opinion freely on my probably flawed interpretation. Thanks.

Hi again boyikao3.

For STI, for the period between the high of Oct 07 and  the low of Mar 09, I seem to get a different count of the number of waves within this period of time when i use different timeframes.

When i use daily chart and weekly chart, i get 5 waves in the said period.

When i use monthly chart, i can only count 3 waves.

Since corrections are generally 3 waves affairs, i come up with 2 vastly different scenerios.

i am quite interested in the number of waves in this particular period of time because if it is 3 (based on monthly charts), it means that this period is corrective and hence, STI will be trying to break its all-time high via a series of its next 5 waves. Hence, your "wave B" may turn out to be a "wave 1".

On the other hand, if this particalur period is composed of 5 waves (based on my reading of the daily and weekly charts), then STI is in a prolonged down cycle, meaning that the rally from Mar 09 till presently is corrective, and there are TWO more large falls to be expected ahead, and the Mar 09 lows will NOT hold.

Please give your opinion freely on my probably flawed interpretation. Thanks.

boyikao3      ( Date: 18-Sep-2009 23:54) Posted: That's because STI is currently in a wave 2 correction downward within a C of primary B. wave 3 should start next week after a small wave 2 ends. DJIA is currently already within a bear rally of a Grand super cycle wave B of A correction (begining) downwards. The scary C of A is coming soon. Wheares STI is only in a wave 4 of a Grand super cycle correction. We need to go through the final wave 5 before the Grand super cycle bear awaits patiently ahead during the year of the Tiger perhaps. EW for all markets are in sync, but not the same waves.  chriscyng      ( Date: 18-Sep-2009 23:38) Posted: But i wonder, why STI are still lagging.. DOW from 2500 up all the way to 2800.. in short period. Why ?

2-cents worth

I guess there isnt any right or wrong. Perhaps you can say that the market is too optimistic. Dr. Doom said that the recession will last about 2years and now it is over a year old. Market is always forward looking (at least 3-6months ahead), not present-looking. People are optimistic about that Obama Administration will tide the country out and I believe they have to.

Comparing the market and situations a year ago.. How many of you will say that market and economy situation isnt getting a bit better? It is true that government stimulus in the markets are doing the work to drive this current market and they have to do that to encourage participations before handing the 'baton' over to the consumers themselves. It is like a crippler making use of walking sticks to assist him to walk, until the time when he is fully recover then the walking sticks can be taken away. Unemployment rate at this point of time (relative to 6-months ago) is indeed improving; of course we cant say that it may not get worse as many companies are likely to cut more manpower in the next 3-6months and it may seems certain to go up again. Market has certainly shown signs of improvement and the next 3-months will certainly be critical whether this market (bullish) momentum will continue to be supported by these fundamentals. If fundamentals dont show further signs of improvements, the market will likely to go down again.. but as for now, the market are still optimistic.. Retailer investors are coming in and the game had already started (at least half-way, from 6400 to 9800).. Certain to see DOWS heading higher towards 11000pts or slightly more in near term. Investors are responsible for their own money, they have been waiting by the sidelines and doubtful about the rally every single day since March and becoming impatient and angry that they didnt get in earlier (reminds me of this old lady who was so angry about not buying in during the March lows and now worrying that she may miss the boat again).

As an investor, I guess it is important to trade with the trend and always remain on high-alert mode by keeping abreast on any big market movements especially now. Trying to 'advise' people not to trade, is kind of not really right move in my opinion, because no one is going to know what happens in the future.. (perhaps DOWS will cheong to 20000pts before the next big correction??) So what if fundamental doesnt support? Isnt this market about supply and demand? When the supply (sellers) < demand (buyers), prices go up and vice versa? Does fundamentals really need to come in to support? (it is only preferred in that way) Yes, if you are looking at sustainable recovery (but why are you looking at that at the first place? Because you are going to have LONG POSITIONS? and if you are going to have LONG POSITIONS, and believe that economy cycles fluctuate from time to time, then why are you bothering so much? dont you think that the price of certain counters are certainly going to head up much more in the long term i.e. Capitaland (potentially a >$10/share stock), General Electric and maybe Citigroup. Or are you a short/mid-term player who is determined to get the lowest price (which I pretty much think that it's really hard as luck do play a part too), how low is low at the first place? have you loaded some during the March lows? or are you eye-ing a even lower price?).

The game is getting slightly harder to play.. but i dont think the rules had changed. Buy low, sell high: it's always good to do that, the question is how low is low and how high is high? I guess no one can predict that at all and it depends a lot on which time horizon you are looking at.. Short-term? Mid-term? Or Long-term..this will determine the configuration of your game.

Perhaps the best way now is not to play this game until the market really shows fundamental improvements which back the recovery, however by then, the game may be too costly to be played and even ending soon and people may tinker again (wowww.. price so high already, still SAFE to go in or not ah?? (fear) then wait and wait and wait until cannot wait (due to greed, just like what's happening now), then go in.. by the time, BLINK**.. the light is turned ON and then you realised that you are the only one left dancing on the floor)..

This is human nature..

Trade with tact, not blindly. If you are risk averse, quit equity trading. Go into other investments such as fixed deposits, maybe put in your bank (SG banks should be relatively safe). High risk, high return. No such thing as low risk, high return, if anyone chance upon a good lobang like that, tell me la..I want to know (better if can put $1million, no risk, then guarantee get $2million or more within 1 week or lesser).

No no... Those who don't look at the charts are goons...

A stock player who doesn't use a chart when he buys and sells is like a gambler in a casino, there's no difference...

He either double or quits blindly... hehehe... 

boyikao3      ( Date: 18-Sep-2009 23:17) Posted: Aiyoh ipunter, that's becos you are old bird liao. I heard old bird just need to look at price and volume and then know what position to take, no need to look at charts one. I still not that advance lah. Hope to learn more kung fu from you in the future ok? iPunter      ( Date: 18-Sep-2009 22:46) Posted: Waves are too time-consuming  and head-cracking to indulge in...  I only go for price... the meaner the better... hehehe...