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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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cheongwee
Elite |
24-Nov-2009 01:24
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What Happens When a Carry Trade Blows Up As I’ve been pounding the table for the last several months, the markets have been operating based on an “inflation” trade mentality. By this, I mean that we’re in a “Dollar down/ everything else up” environment. This is to be expected. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has been doing everything he can to re-inflate the markets, hoping he can counteract the deflationary impact of the Housing Crash/ Credit Bubble bursting. To do this, he’s made the Dollar unattractive on a yield basis, cutting interest rates to between 0% and 0.25% (effectively making the Dollar have NO yield). He’s also made the Dollar unattractive on a momentum basis by printing $900+ billion, expanding the Fed’s balance sheet from $800 billion to $2.2 trillion, and other anti-Dollar measures. Consequently, the Dollar has become a MASSIVE carry trade, with virtually every bank/ financial institution in the world borrowing in Dollars and then funneling this “hot” money into the financial markets (stocks, commodities, gold, etc). Thus, we’ve seen a massive rise in stocks (blue), oil (black), and gold (gold), complimented by a disturbing drop in the US Dollar (green).  --------------------------------------------------- We're Setting Up for a Repeat of 2008 In 2008, a Dollar reversal kicked off a systemic collapse as the entire world ran for the exits to cover their Dollar shorts. This year, the exact same set-up is occuring virtually everyone is betting against the Dollar and piling into everything else. So what happens if the Dollar reverses and rallies? (hint: 2008 ALL OVER AGAIN) Those investors who believe the Fed has fixed the financial systems solvency issues are either ignorant or asleep at the wheel. are you ready for the Crash?..........................taken fr gain,pain and capital |
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boyikao3
Master |
23-Nov-2009 23:58
Yells: "Money or reputation ?" |
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And I was wondering how come the "fantastic" housing data did not plunge the USDI into new lows. Maybe this week's GDP may try to do the same? USD lai lai lai !
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boyikao3
Master |
23-Nov-2009 23:49
Yells: "Money or reputation ?" |
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Bad news? I think it might be the reverse that the market should be scared of. Unemployment down - lift rates, GDP up- lift rates, etc. The market has been climbing on a series of bad news for 8 months already. So this time, it might be the good news that may get it into trouble!
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cheongwee
Elite |
23-Nov-2009 23:35
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Just went oiver to kitco.com...and found out today gold rally not on dollar weakness, but on shortist covering... and now back to the dollar...it have been short too long..once ppl cover back...it is going to be a longgggg story and recovering.on months.. ..ppl are thking that fed will hold rate near zero for the next one yr...but if mrket bad news...stock will be sold down which will then start the unwinding story... |
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cheongwee
Elite |
23-Nov-2009 23:22
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But even if you are novice..and buy but did dont know sell ands keep till yrs from now...u are buying at sti 27xx.......trust me these 2 will not go under...in a deflation. and when sti eventually go bonker to 5000..by then.even if u want to buy mermaid at 1.0 or guocoleisuare at 90c also got no chance...it will be history...have a long term view....dont be paly by other post here..and worry sick.... |
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Bon3260
Supreme |
23-Nov-2009 23:19
Yells: "Ooo Ooo Aaa Aaa!" |
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No! I din sell them away... I'm presently still holding them... Guocoleisure & Mermaid!!! Cheong ah!!! ('',)
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cheongwee
Elite |
23-Nov-2009 23:16
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of course...these 2 are unfortunate to have been beaten down in 2 correction,,,but going forward..we shd see these 2 edge up...i see mermaid at abv 1.2...guocoleisure...85c to 90c...if rally till dec end.. dont rub it off....
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cheongwee
Elite |
23-Nov-2009 23:12
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just like i thk housing is ok...tonite will see at least 200 over pts gain....look like a good week.. we start on a rally on Mon...got lot more space to cheong... |
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Bon3260
Supreme |
23-Nov-2009 23:11
Yells: "Ooo Ooo Aaa Aaa!" |
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Cheong Wee, How abt Mermaid & Guocoleisure? Wld it b like Sinotel today?
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cheongwee
Elite |
23-Nov-2009 23:08
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Time to be caution...look like everything is link to weak dollar and not real demand or economic improvement...and all improvement in economy are also link to the weak dollar...all those stimulus which is enchance by the weak dollar... but play along but be careful...look good till yr end ...let pray all safely out when time come.. and for the month being...sinortel, sinomem, will soar sky high...all fund are chart blind...so is mrket... Ying Li, GAR, and many more... |
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cheongwee
Elite |
23-Nov-2009 23:00
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i read that dollar shd be 26% stronger than euro..it is true...europe are worse than US.. if the dollar will to soar to 95..over 2010...whenre will be stock oil and gold???..i thk i read it somewhere before...oil 10...dow 3800...gold 550.... gold bug will argue dow to gold ratio...calling 1:1..when all are deflated..u need dollar not gold or oil anymore..u need dollar to pay your debt...and when all debt default go rocket,,,all those dollar will disappeasr fast...so the remaining dollar will increase in value... |
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cheongwee
Elite |
23-Nov-2009 22:51
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Look at the chart....all up...dollar down...what happen when dollar up???..u say?? so u know what to prepare for???
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boyikao3
Master |
23-Nov-2009 21:47
Yells: "Money or reputation ?" |
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No need FD lah. Just buy any commodities exporting country's gov bond and it will be much higher than the dollar interest rate.
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cheongwee
Elite |
23-Nov-2009 21:14
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can someone say something...suppose i borrow fr you at near zero interest...and i leverage that 10 times and put it in a FD at a higher interest rate....is this possible??? if it is...no wonder ...all bank are reporting big profit.. |
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cheongwee
Elite |
23-Nov-2009 21:11
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housing shd be ok...dow tonite will be up 3 figure...hopefully.. | ||||
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cheongwee
Elite |
23-Nov-2009 21:04
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the index are base on the blue chip...so even if all blue are down , mid cap and penny are up...sti will still be down.. so sti up...mid cap and penny mostly down...doesn't influence the index..as they are blues chip base.. but today my mid cap and penny doing fines.. sinotel sinomem, etc..are doing fine...but going forward shd be throughout...rally..
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thomas_low
Veteran |
23-Nov-2009 19:29
Yells: "Gong Xi Money Made" |
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Looks like many people are selling at the beginning, then buy up later except a few. So back in the mind of most people is to run road first, come back to catch a few fish later. Tomorrow is likely to be low unless US do some magic again. | ||||
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iPunter
Supreme |
23-Nov-2009 19:14
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Yup... it is strange how the STI can keepo n rising when many many stocks are on the downtrend... Mostly propped up by the bank counters...
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ozone2002
Supreme |
23-Nov-2009 19:03
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Wah STI chiong 30 points ... look at the vol so thin.. 1 bil only.. time to run for ur lives.. sell into strength.. don't get caught.. |
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iPunter
Supreme |
23-Nov-2009 17:58
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Your deep knowledge of gold can make you the golden sifu here... hehehe... |
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