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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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ozone2002
Supreme |
13-Jan-2010 10:52
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overdue correction is here.. China: Taking Its First Step Towards Policy Reversal China's central bank PBoC announced on its website yesterday evening (Tuesday 12 Jan) a 50bps hike in reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for large banks, from 15.5% to 16.0%, effective Monday 18 Jan. Smaller banks' RRR (currently 13.5%) is not affected by this latest announcement. This is the first increase in the RRR since June 2008 and obviously carries a significant message, although the official announcement was brief (only 3 lines) and did not provide any explanation or rationale for the increase. Despite earlier signs (raising of central bank bill yields this week and lowering of loan growth target), the decision by PBoC to hike RRR came as surprise by its (earlier-than-expected) timing, as Bloomberg reported market consensus (including ourselves) was looking for a hike in RRR only from 2Q10. In addition, the move came just ahead of the typically strong liquidity demand period prior to Chinese New Year (Feb this year), and also the annual National Peoples' Congress sessions in March. The earlier-than-anticipated move suggests that indicators are sufficiently urgent/critical for the authorities to take concrete actions to steer towards unwinding of the loose monetary policy. These indicators are well known: new loans granted in China has increased a record RMB9.21 trillions for the first 11 months in 2009 (more than 3x the annual average of RMB2.9tn between 2004-2008), "bubble" like conditions in China's real estate prices, exports rose for the first time in 14 months in December, and nascent signs of increases in consumer prices, especially for food and energy. Implications As highlighted in our latest Quarterly Global Outlook (released on 22 Dec 2009), we had expected China to raise RRR (in 2Q) before moving on to hike its benchmark interest rates later in the year in 3Q10. While the timing is off, we still continue the quantum to remain, i.e. RRR heading towards 18.5% by end-2010 (6x increases in total at 50bps each) as we explained in the Quarterly report, with the risk now certainly on the upside. This suggests that PBoC policy reversal could be earlier and more aggressive than we anticipated in terms of interest rate increases, which we had projected to rise to 5.85% by end-2010, from 5-year low of 5.31% currently (for the benchmark 1Y lending rate). We will adjust our interest rate forecasts should the RRR hikes come in faster than we expected. Despite this latest announcement, the RMB is likely to remain relatively benign in the 3-6 month horizon given the various considerations. Among others, China is certainly concerned about the impact of currency moves on its forex reserves and the impact of a large move on the USD itself (our latest Quarterly Global Outlook outlined the difficulties for a substantial move in RMB). We continue to expect the USD/RMB pair to ease slightly towards 6.81 by mid-2010 and then to 6.77 by end-2010, from current 6.827 level. On the equity market front, China's stock markets are likely to react negatively today to the RRR announcement, which signals the winding down of "cheap and easy money", and has come earlier than expected and could also bring forward the schedule and extent of monetary policy reversal. However, PBoC still needs to balance between liquidity tightening, meeting growth target, and orderly deflation of asset bubbles. This means policy moves ahead are still going to be cautious and measured. |
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Bon3260
Supreme |
13-Jan-2010 10:13
Yells: "Ooo Ooo Aaa Aaa!" |
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Risktaker, U again buy Osim? ('',)
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risktaker
Supreme |
13-Jan-2010 10:09
Yells: "Sometimes you think you know, but in fact you dont" |
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I am buying now :) Good luck | ||||
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victorf
Master |
13-Jan-2010 09:58
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market taking a pause and will oscillate between 2900 for the next few days....however, selected stocks (not all with strong fundamental, dividend or growth prospect) can still "buy on dip" due to technical bullish (momentum), capricon effect and lots of money at the sideline waiting to enter the market whenever there is a dip....good luck :) | ||||
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thomas_low
Veteran |
12-Jan-2010 23:16
Yells: "Gong Xi Money Made" |
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Sold 80% yesterday, left a few to play-play. The counters I bought b4 xmas went up a lot over the last few days, not greedy and offloaded them as I expect corrections which actually happened. So I go for a few days break and come back to roll the dice a gain. Index target 3K will be breached soon but needs a few roller coaster rides like most market when it hover around psycological barrier.
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Bon3260
Supreme |
12-Jan-2010 21:47
Yells: "Ooo Ooo Aaa Aaa!" |
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Dow Future v v red eh... : ( (http://www.liveindices.com/) |
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Bon3260
Supreme |
12-Jan-2010 21:38
Yells: "Ooo Ooo Aaa Aaa!" |
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x 0 Alert Admin |
Can share share wat's ur Shopping List r?
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risktaker
Supreme |
12-Jan-2010 21:36
Yells: "Sometimes you think you know, but in fact you dont" |
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US trade deficit hits $36.4 billion, more than analyst estimates. With China Exports increases :P lol I expected that to happen. Guess tomorrow i gonna massively buy in certain shares ! Hope they are on sales ! :P |
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risktaker
Supreme |
12-Jan-2010 21:21
Yells: "Sometimes you think you know, but in fact you dont" |
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Small Cap Mid Cap still in the game. Intel results will put the market back in good mood :) "Finger Cross" that
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Bon3260
Supreme |
12-Jan-2010 21:10
Yells: "Ooo Ooo Aaa Aaa!" |
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Actually we r known dat STI has climbed alot since X'mas last yr till now. Dat's y 95.8FM Experts there predicted there'll b a correction mayb 80 - 100pts. Of cos, nobody in tis world can tell wat'll happen nxt. Unless they r "God". Normal corrections r expected lah. Those Experts hv been trading experiences more dan 20yrs & abv r oredi expected tis'll b happened. Especially b4 tis cming CNY, there'll b another round of big rally. Smtimes STI drops doesn't mean S-Chips'll drop too. Cos we r all oso known dat Blue-Chips hv no more meat liao. Rmbr dat I hv always mentioned abt dat "Huge Cow" during ealy Dec09? Tis Huge Cow'll b cming soon b4 CNY... ('',) |
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jasonfaxingliu
Senior |
12-Jan-2010 21:05
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If you use magnifiying glass to look at a stright line, you can see ripples... so when stock rally, it will chopper and it is normal... and this is how trader and BB can make money, DON'T PANIC |
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tanh2l
Veteran |
12-Jan-2010 20:51
Yells: "Outcome is the proof to all brilliant processes." |
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did 958fm reference to any particular reason for the steep correction:p
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Bon3260
Supreme |
12-Jan-2010 20:42
Yells: "Ooo Ooo Aaa Aaa!" |
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95.8FM's Experts predicted dat STI might facing corrections worst 80 - 100pts, but din mention when. Tmr STI's actions... Dow Jones' expecting'll drop tonite. 4 me, I guess early morning all Counters'll red red aft Dow Jones Index. But cm 2 aft lunch... It might alittle bit recover. But sm BBs'll make it recover during 10am tmr. Lets hope... ('',) |
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risktaker
Supreme |
12-Jan-2010 19:43
Yells: "Sometimes you think you know, but in fact you dont" |
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Alcoa results wasnt as expected but Alcoa doesnt mean the whole US market but still he is the first to report so market will respect a little. Alcoa results included certain extraordinary items (0.01 earnings compare to 0.06 expected). Maybe Analyst is asking too much as they oversighted on the extraordinary items added to the report. STI will most likely avoid bloodshed tomorrow :) Shall be trading within -10 to 10 points range. Unless Extraordinary news came out. Good Luck All! HUAT ah! |
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Bon3260
Supreme |
12-Jan-2010 14:55
Yells: "Ooo Ooo Aaa Aaa!" |
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Risktaker, U r rite! It's Osim! U really a God! ('',)
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beruangface
Senior |
12-Jan-2010 12:12
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ANOTHR DAY FULL OF OPPORTUNITIES TO BUY....KEEP ON BUYING!!! BUY,BUY & BUY!!! LET STI CROSS 3000PTS NOW!! |
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summerleaf
Member |
12-Jan-2010 09:40
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SaizenReit?
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ozone2002
Supreme |
12-Jan-2010 08:52
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Minister Lim hng kiang said no double dip recession.. WHACK THE stock market!.. keke |
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risktaker
Supreme |
12-Jan-2010 06:58
Yells: "Sometimes you think you know, but in fact you dont" |
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Naaa.... Not OSIM :)
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bh704428
Veteran |
11-Jan-2010 22:33
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
by tis fri perhaps??
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