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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
DnApeh
Master
13-Jan-2010 15:33     
 
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Thanks again.

Looks like you are going to shake leg until your leg cramp.



boyikao3      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 15:27) Posted:

I am not going Long until SSE clears 3478 and HSI clears 23099. From the waves, this looks like a normal correction before the next high happens. But for me, I dun play around with waves until critical numbers are cleared. Smiley

DnApeh      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 13:35) Posted:

Hi.

Please give warning when next wave starting leh.

Thank you very much.
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boyikao3
Master
13-Jan-2010 15:27     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I am not going Long until SSE clears 3478 and HSI clears 23099. From the waves, this looks like a normal correction before the next high happens. But for me, I dun play around with waves until critical numbers are cleared. Smiley

DnApeh      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 13:35) Posted:

Hi.

Please give warning when next wave starting leh.

Thank you very much.



boyikao3      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 12:36) Posted:

Lucky sia ! Took my profit on Monday ! Now just sit back, wait for the next wave, and shake leg ...Smiley
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out-of-the-box
Senior
13-Jan-2010 15:24     
 
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greendino, so you recon world economy is going into recession or you think we are going into double dip recession ??

Current trend is due to correction by Chinese goverment to cool the economy, long term be good as it will be more sustainable ! so what is your logic that world is going itno recession and recovery is not in light !!
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greendino
Member
13-Jan-2010 14:24     
 
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REPOST with corrections- There's an uncanny resemblance in 1998-1999 as to how Jan 2010 is unfolding. During 1999, the recovery year from the 1998 lows of the Asian Economic Crisis, the calendar days are the same as Jan 2010. And we are in the recovering year of the 2009 bottom.

On the 2nd week starting 11 Jan 1999, STI hit a high at 1545. As of Jan 11, 2010 we have STI at high of 2947. Then came the first drop during this week with STI dropping 69pts to 1476 by 14 Jan 1999 or -4.46%. 

As of now, STI is down 50pts or -1.6% off 2947. STI should have some way down to go dropping only 0.6% today compared to HSI's already down 2.24% as of now. 

A similar magnitude of correction (-4.46%) in today's terms should see STI at 2815 or -130pts from 2947 but maybe a 60-70pts drop from 2947 by tomorrow i.e. STI @ 2880, looks more likely.

Expect a rebound then to 2947 range by mid next week followed by a sell off again. In 1999, this second sell off got worse at -9.88% or -153pts. Then came a rebound and a 3rd selloff of a bigger magnitude of -11.7% or 171pts to usher in the CNY of 1999.

 Just some gibberish from me...as the saying goes...'past performance is not an indication of future performance' 

greendino      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 14:20) Posted:



There's an uncanny resemblance to 1998-1999 as to how Jan 2010 is unfolding. During the 1999, the recovery year from the 1998 lows of the Asian Economic Crisis, the calendar days are the same as Jan 2010. And we are in the recovering year of the 2009 bottom.

On the 2nd week starting 11 Jan 1999, STI hit a high at 1545. Jan 11, 2010 we have STI high at 1947. Then came the first drop during this week with STI dropping 69pts to 1476 by 14 Jan 1999 or -4.46%.

As of now, STI is down 50pts or -1.6% off 1947. STI should have some way down to go dropping only 0.6% today compared to HSI's already down 2.24% as of now.

A similar magnitude of correction (-4.46%) in today's terms should see STI at 2815 or -130pts from 2947 but maybe a 60-70pts drop from 2947 by tomorrow i.e. STI @ 2880 looks more likely.

Expect a rebound then to 2947 range by mid next week followed by a sell off again. In 1999, this second sell off got worse at -9.88% or -153pts. Then came a rebound and a 3rd selloff of a bigger magnitude of -11.7% or 171pts to usher in the CNY of 1999.

 Just some gibberish from me...as the saying goes...'past performance is not an indication of future performance' 
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greendino
Member
13-Jan-2010 14:20     
 
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There's an uncanny resemblance to 1998-1999 as to how Jan 2010 is unfolding. During the 1999, the recovery year from the 1998 lows of the Asian Economic Crisis, the calendar days are the same as Jan 2010. And we are in the recovering year of the 2009 bottom.

On the 2nd week starting 11 Jan 1999, STI hit a high at 1545. Jan 11, 2010 we have STI high at 1947. Then came the first drop during this week with STI dropping 69pts to 1476 by 14 Jan 1999 or -4.46%.

As of now, STI is down 50pts or -1.6% off 1947. STI should have some way down to go dropping only 0.6% today compared to HSI's already down 2.24% as of now.

A similar magnitude of correction (-4.46%) in today's terms should see STI at 2815 or -130pts from 2947 but maybe a 60-70pts drop from 2947 by tomorrow i.e. STI @ 2880 looks more likely.

Expect a rebound then to 2947 range by mid next week followed by a sell off again. In 1999, this second sell off got worse at -9.88% or -153pts. Then came a rebound and a 3rd selloff of a bigger magnitude of -11.7% or 171pts to usher in the CNY of 1999.

 Just some gibberish from me...as the saying goes...'past performance is not an indication of future performance' 
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Bon3260
Supreme
13-Jan-2010 13:42     
 
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Dow Future green green liao... (http://www.liveindices.com/)

Later 4pm sure all Counters green green...

Buy ah!!! ('',)
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ozone2002
Supreme
13-Jan-2010 13:40     
 
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Asia/Pacific Last Trade Change Related Info
^AORD All Ordinaries Australia 4,900.100 1:11PM SGT Down 31.500 (0.64%) Components, More
^SSEC Shanghai Composite China 3,178.663 1:23PM SGT Down 95.303 (2.91%) More
^HSI Hang Seng Hong Kong 21,825.46 1:23PM SGT Down 501.18 (2.24%) Components, More
^BSESN BSE 30 India 17,393.71 1:28PM SGT Down 28.80 (0.17%) More
^JKSE Jakarta Composite Indonesia 2,629.626 1:00PM SGT Down 29.925 (1.13%) Components, More
^KLSE KLSE Composite Malaysia 1,287.61 12:29PM SGT Down 5.24 (0.41%) Components, More
^N225 Nikkei 225 Japan 10,802.43 1:18PM SGT Down 76.71 (0.71%) More
^NZ50 NZX 50 New Zealand 3,276.195 12:00PM SGT Down 14.096 (0.43%) Components, More
^STI Straits Times Singapore 2,899.76 1:23PM SGT Down 16.35 (0.56%) Components, More
^KS11 Seoul Composite South Korea 1,676.29 1:18PM SGT Down 22.35 (1.32%) Components, More
^TWII Taiwan Weighted Taiwan 8,197.12 1:18PM SGT Down 112.25 (1.35%) More


 

 
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DnApeh
Master
13-Jan-2010 13:35     
 
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Hi.

Please give warning when next wave starting leh.

Thank you very much.



boyikao3      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 12:36) Posted:

Lucky sia ! Took my profit on Monday ! Now just sit back, wait for the next wave, and shake leg ...Smiley

jasonfaxingliu      ( Date: 12-Jan-2010 21:05) Posted:



If you use magnifiying glass to look at a stright line, you can see ripples... so when stock rally, it will chopper and it is normal... and this is how trader and BB can make money,

DON'T PANIC
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erictkw
Veteran
13-Jan-2010 13:33     
 
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 Alert Admin 		The more reason for forumners like you to continue to guide the green horn horumners here. Smiley

boyikao3      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 13:00) Posted:

2010 onwards trading will be a very different landscape. China now can allow shorting and futures trading by institutions (means stay invisible!). Now that people can make money both ways, and bring in hedge funds in a big way, staying bullish and optimistic (without good reasons other than hope) all the time will literally kill your capital. The turn of tide is just around the corner and dun get tsunamied because of a few dollars ! Smiley
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Bon3260
Supreme
13-Jan-2010 13:08     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I'm wondering wat's e taste like... BBQ Chilli Bull Frog Legs... ('',)

boyikao3      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 12:56) Posted:

How I know eh Bon Bon ? He maybe somewhere in Szechuan eating bbq chilli bull frogs with QingDao beer ! Smiley

Bon3260      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 12:44) Posted:

Boyikao3,

Where's iPunter? Dat joker suddenly disappeared ley... Muz b @ Genting SP there preparing open hse setting up...

('',)
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boyikao3
Master
13-Jan-2010 13:00     
 
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 Alert Admin 		2010 onwards trading will be a very different landscape. China now can allow shorting and futures trading by institutions (means stay invisible!). Now that people can make money both ways, and bring in hedge funds in a big way, staying bullish and optimistic (without good reasons other than hope) all the time will literally kill your capital. The turn of tide is just around the corner and dun get tsunamied because of a few dollars ! Smiley
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boyikao3
Master
13-Jan-2010 12:56     
 
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 Alert Admin 		How I know eh Bon Bon ? He maybe somewhere in Szechuan eating bbq chilli bull frogs with QingDao beer ! Smiley

Bon3260      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 12:44) Posted:

Boyikao3,

Where's iPunter? Dat joker suddenly disappeared ley... Muz b @ Genting SP there preparing open hse setting up...

('',)



boyikao3      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 12:36) Posted:

Lucky sia ! Took my profit on Monday ! Now just sit back, wait for the next wave, and shake leg ...Smiley
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Bon3260
Supreme
13-Jan-2010 12:44     
 
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Boyikao3,

Where's iPunter? Dat joker suddenly disappeared ley... Muz b @ Genting SP there preparing open hse setting up...

('',)



boyikao3      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 12:36) Posted:

Lucky sia ! Took my profit on Monday ! Now just sit back, wait for the next wave, and shake leg ...Smiley

jasonfaxingliu      ( Date: 12-Jan-2010 21:05) Posted:



If you use magnifiying glass to look at a stright line, you can see ripples... so when stock rally, it will chopper and it is normal... and this is how trader and BB can make money,

DON'T PANIC
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boyikao3
Master
13-Jan-2010 12:36     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Lucky sia ! Took my profit on Monday ! Now just sit back, wait for the next wave, and shake leg ...Smiley

jasonfaxingliu      ( Date: 12-Jan-2010 21:05) Posted:



If you use magnifiying glass to look at a stright line, you can see ripples... so when stock rally, it will chopper and it is normal... and this is how trader and BB can make money,

DON'T PANIC
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Livermore
Master
13-Jan-2010 12:24     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Don't overtrade and in the end you make less.
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cyjjerry85
Elite
13-Jan-2010 11:37     
 
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 Alert Admin 		as long as what the analysts say...it may likely not turn out that way...becoz they r often misleading not accurate...the correction can start anytime like yesterday or even in a month's time....don't we want to buy in dips? or u prefer to buy at a higher price


risktaker      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 11:20) Posted:

Correction start in march :P Not now :)

 



cyjjerry85      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 11:11) Posted:

read the Straits Times money section today tt says those DBS analysts are predicting a major correction in June this year but at the end of the year we will still see 15-20% increase

it was also stated in another report tt i agree...currently the prices r a little too steep for investors to continue in accumulation...will wait for prices to dip before going in again
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Bon3260
Supreme
13-Jan-2010 11:25     
 
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Risktaker,

U r rite again... It's Osim!!!

Osim Cheong Ah!!!

('',)



Bon3260      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 10:13) Posted:

Risktaker,

U again buy Osim?

('',)



risktaker      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 10:09) Posted:

I am buying now :) Good luck
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risktaker
Supreme
13-Jan-2010 11:20     
 
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Correction start in march :P Not now :)

 



cyjjerry85      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 11:11) Posted:

read the Straits Times money section today tt says those DBS analysts are predicting a major correction in June this year but at the end of the year we will still see 15-20% increase

it was also stated in another report tt i agree...currently the prices r a little too steep for investors to continue in accumulation...will wait for prices to dip before going in again



ozone2002      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 10:52) Posted:



overdue correction is here..

 

China: Taking Its First Step Towards Policy Reversal
China's central bank PBoC announced on its website yesterday evening (Tuesday 12 Jan) a 50bps hike in reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for large banks, from 15.5% to 16.0%, effective Monday 18 Jan. Smaller banks' RRR (currently 13.5%) is not affected by this latest announcement. This is the first increase in the RRR since June 2008 and obviously carries a significant message, although the official announcement was brief (only 3 lines) and did not provide any explanation or rationale for the increase.
Despite earlier signs (raising of central bank bill yields this week and lowering of loan growth target), the decision by PBoC to hike RRR came as surprise by its (earlier-than-expected) timing, as Bloomberg reported market consensus (including ourselves) was looking for a hike in RRR only from 2Q10. In addition, the move came just ahead of the typically strong liquidity demand period prior to Chinese New Year (Feb this year), and also the annual National Peoples' Congress sessions in March.
The earlier-than-anticipated move suggests that indicators are sufficiently urgent/critical for the authorities to take concrete actions to steer towards unwinding of the loose monetary policy. These indicators are well known: new loans granted in China has increased a record RMB9.21 trillions for the first 11 months in 2009 (more than 3x the annual average of RMB2.9tn between 2004-2008), "bubble" like conditions in China's real estate prices, exports rose for the first time in 14 months in December, and nascent signs of increases in consumer prices, especially for food and energy.
Implications
As highlighted in our latest Quarterly Global Outlook (released on 22 Dec 2009), we had expected China to raise RRR (in 2Q) before moving on to hike its benchmark interest rates later in the year in 3Q10. While the timing is off, we still continue the quantum to remain, i.e. RRR heading towards 18.5% by end-2010 (6x increases in total at 50bps
each) as we explained in the Quarterly report, with the risk now certainly on the upside. This suggests that PBoC policy reversal could be earlier and more aggressive than we anticipated in terms of interest rate increases, which we had projected to rise to 5.85% by end-2010, from 5-year low of 5.31% currently (for the benchmark 1Y lending rate). We will adjust our interest rate forecasts should the RRR hikes come in faster than we expected.
Despite this latest announcement, the RMB is likely to remain relatively benign in the 3-6 month horizon given the various considerations. Among others, China is certainly concerned about the impact of currency moves on its forex reserves and the impact of a large move on the USD itself (our latest Quarterly Global Outlook outlined the difficulties for a substantial move in RMB). We continue to expect the USD/RMB pair to ease slightly towards 6.81 by mid-2010 and then to 6.77 by end-2010, from current 6.827 level.
On the equity market front, China's stock markets are likely to react negatively today to the RRR announcement, which signals the winding down of "cheap and easy money", and has come earlier than expected and could also bring forward the schedule and extent of monetary policy reversal. However, PBoC still needs to balance between liquidity tightening, meeting growth target, and orderly deflation of asset bubbles. This means policy moves ahead are still going to be cautious and measured.


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des_khor
Supreme
13-Jan-2010 11:17     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I already ask the MFT and said that the market will bounce back tmr...don't worry be happy!
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cyjjerry85
Elite
13-Jan-2010 11:11     
 
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read the Straits Times money section today tt says those DBS analysts are predicting a major correction in June this year but at the end of the year we will still see 15-20% increase

it was also stated in another report tt i agree...currently the prices r a little too steep for investors to continue in accumulation...will wait for prices to dip before going in again



ozone2002      ( Date: 13-Jan-2010 10:52) Posted:



overdue correction is here..

 

China: Taking Its First Step Towards Policy Reversal
China's central bank PBoC announced on its website yesterday evening (Tuesday 12 Jan) a 50bps hike in reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for large banks, from 15.5% to 16.0%, effective Monday 18 Jan. Smaller banks' RRR (currently 13.5%) is not affected by this latest announcement. This is the first increase in the RRR since June 2008 and obviously carries a significant message, although the official announcement was brief (only 3 lines) and did not provide any explanation or rationale for the increase.
Despite earlier signs (raising of central bank bill yields this week and lowering of loan growth target), the decision by PBoC to hike RRR came as surprise by its (earlier-than-expected) timing, as Bloomberg reported market consensus (including ourselves) was looking for a hike in RRR only from 2Q10. In addition, the move came just ahead of the typically strong liquidity demand period prior to Chinese New Year (Feb this year), and also the annual National Peoples' Congress sessions in March.
The earlier-than-anticipated move suggests that indicators are sufficiently urgent/critical for the authorities to take concrete actions to steer towards unwinding of the loose monetary policy. These indicators are well known: new loans granted in China has increased a record RMB9.21 trillions for the first 11 months in 2009 (more than 3x the annual average of RMB2.9tn between 2004-2008), "bubble" like conditions in China's real estate prices, exports rose for the first time in 14 months in December, and nascent signs of increases in consumer prices, especially for food and energy.
Implications
As highlighted in our latest Quarterly Global Outlook (released on 22 Dec 2009), we had expected China to raise RRR (in 2Q) before moving on to hike its benchmark interest rates later in the year in 3Q10. While the timing is off, we still continue the quantum to remain, i.e. RRR heading towards 18.5% by end-2010 (6x increases in total at 50bps
each) as we explained in the Quarterly report, with the risk now certainly on the upside. This suggests that PBoC policy reversal could be earlier and more aggressive than we anticipated in terms of interest rate increases, which we had projected to rise to 5.85% by end-2010, from 5-year low of 5.31% currently (for the benchmark 1Y lending rate). We will adjust our interest rate forecasts should the RRR hikes come in faster than we expected.
Despite this latest announcement, the RMB is likely to remain relatively benign in the 3-6 month horizon given the various considerations. Among others, China is certainly concerned about the impact of currency moves on its forex reserves and the impact of a large move on the USD itself (our latest Quarterly Global Outlook outlined the difficulties for a substantial move in RMB). We continue to expect the USD/RMB pair to ease slightly towards 6.81 by mid-2010 and then to 6.77 by end-2010, from current 6.827 level.
On the equity market front, China's stock markets are likely to react negatively today to the RRR announcement, which signals the winding down of "cheap and easy money", and has come earlier than expected and could also bring forward the schedule and extent of monetary policy reversal. However, PBoC still needs to balance between liquidity tightening, meeting growth target, and orderly deflation of asset bubbles. This means policy moves ahead are still going to be cautious and measured.

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