The Singaporeans and their counterparts at the Australian Stock Exchange face an uphill battle in persuading the Gillard government and Nationals to support the deal. The slump in equity markets due to Japan's natural disaster and nuclear crisis has also reduced the value of the SGX's offer.
Despite the growing reticence in Canberra, the government-owned SGX is unlikely to consider an attempt to make the deal more palatable until the Foreign Investment Review Board makes its final recommendation on it to the Treasurer, Wayne Swan, in just over two months' time.
Advertisement: Story continues below
The board received the formal proposal two weeks ago and is expected to use the entire 120 days it is allocated to review and make its recommendation. However, BusinessDay believes that the government's inclination is to reject the merger, whatever the board recommends.
An ASX spokesman, Matthew Gibbs, said yesterday that changes had already been made to the original offer to address concerns, including increasing the number of Australians on the board of a merged exchange.
''We will continue to engage with the politicians during this process and work hard at pointing out that there need not be any concern about a loss of sovereignty and control,'' he said. ''All of the existing regulatory protections that market-users enjoy will be preserved under this merger proposal.''
However, the Nationals have already decided to oppose the deal in the same way they rejected Chinese state-owned Chinalco lifting its stake in Rio Tinto in 2009.
The Singaporeans have left any approaches to senior politicians in the hands of the ASX's chairman, David Gonski, and its chief executive, Robert Elstone.
So far, the SGX CEO, Magnus Bocker, has confined himself to talks with large Australian institutions and brokers. But that may change now that the offer is before FIRB.
The ASX has hired lobbyists from both sides of the political divide in its quest to win parliamentary approval