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Riding High On The Sentosa Wave
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singaporegal
Supreme |
11-Jan-2007 21:23
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Ho Bee could be in the midst of a trend reversal... be cautious |
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iPunter
Supreme |
11-Jan-2007 14:48
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Actually... frankly speaking... if you trade TA and at the same time let FA influence you, you are not likely to be an effective trader. This is because very often, the TA picture is at variance with the fundamentals. And all too often, you will get 'played out' by the fundamentals. In this regard, Singaporegal has the right approach and also the methodology. Like her I usually literally 'don't care a damn about the so-called fundamentals. To me, if a stock wants to go down it will go down, no matter what superb fundamentals it has (you won't know everything anyway). So in the end, if you want to trade TA, you must not be "distracted" by any fundamentals. One exception though: If you are a long-term investor, then you must always base your selection on the fundamentals. It's just like getting married to the right person, you see. One wrong choice and you've had it coz you had intended to go in for the long haul. My Favourite Stock Market Books |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
11-Jan-2007 13:48
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Hi colorado, One piece of advice is to be very clear what your trading philosophy is. One risk in mixing FA and TA is this - unless you're extremely clear that you know a stock you buy is for the long term, you might be confused by short term TA signals and be tempted to put in a trade. |
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colorado
Member |
11-Jan-2007 11:27
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Hi Singaporegal, yep am also going to read up on TA by Martin Pring. I like that TA is able to help me understand what the herd is doing but the FA is the part that helps me decide if I can still hold on to the trade if my reading is wrong. That's why I only look at shares between $1-$5. Don't know how to play penny stocks yet but am willing to learn. Still got tons to learn and am very heartened that veterans like you are so willing to share - that helps cut short the learning process. Keep your posting coming cos I like to see how you analyse the market based on TA! |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
05-Jan-2007 23:33
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Hi colorado, Nice to know that you're going for TA lessons to improve your trading. But one important word of advice - TA works well for me but you need to figure out yourself if it suits your personality. If it conflicts with your beliefs, you probably should look at something else. There is no one-size-fits-all trading method or philosophy. But I believe you're taking a step in the right direction by learning about different trading approaches! |
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colorado
Member |
05-Jan-2007 12:58
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Hi iPunter, thanks for your tip! |
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iPunter
Supreme |
05-Jan-2007 11:26
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Basing on hearsay is certainly not the way to go in stock market matters... But before going for the course, it will help tremendously if you read one of the books highlighted in this thread first... TA & Stock Market Education Thread |
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colorado
Member |
05-Jan-2007 10:42
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Ha Singaporegal and elfinchilde, I like your trading philosophies and hope to learn more. Going for a class soon on TA so hopefully that will provide the necessary ammunitions for the new trading year. Sigh...I completely messed up the whole of 2006 - entering the market based on hearsay. I've learnt my lesson and paid my tuition fees already and hopefully, I can put into practice what I am going to learn and profit from it. |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
05-Jan-2007 09:52
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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No worries! Hi elf, nice to know that someone shares the same philosophy in trading! |
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cr_kai
Senior |
05-Jan-2007 09:34
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thanks for the clarification. respect to your methods. cheers! |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
04-Jan-2007 22:23
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Yes, you're right about the part on "blip" reaction. The difficulty is in identifying the noise from the trend. To reduce the "blip" effect, I believe the following helps - (1) Making use of different charts. If more charts tell you the same thing, chances are, its not a blip. But having said that, too many charts lead to confusion. I find the Acc/Dist, Chaikin, Williams %R and RSI work well together. (2) Trade non-penny stocks with large volumes. If there are large volumes, the price action is probably not a blip. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
04-Jan-2007 22:14
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bedoop, no prob singaporegal. :) wouldn't say i understand you very well, but it's just that a lot of your trading philos are similar to mine (consistent profits, specific counters that 'pass' criteria, caution of vol/price surges etc); esp when i do pure TA trades, so yea. :) hm. act, if you look at the mathematics of it; then, realistically, TA is a better tool than FA. the only problem, to me, is that you have to really read what IS, and not take every faintest little blip to mean it's going your way (when all other signs say otherwise). that to me is the most difficult thing to master in TA. (oh dear, this should perhaps go in the 'common investors' thread) |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
04-Jan-2007 22:03
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Before I used TA, I was also very sceptical about this "hocus-pocus" and "voodoo" like thing that went contary to whatever I learnt in university. I had the same questions you are asking now. Every time I played with shares, I would make small profits and then lose a lot of money. But after I decided to give TA a try, I was pleasantly surprised when I started to turn in a consistent profit for the majority of trades. |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
04-Jan-2007 21:44
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Thanks elf, for helping me to clarify! You seem to understand me very well! cr_kai, regarding your question on how long it takes to do a TA on a stock - it takes me less than 3 mins to come to a buy/sell decision on a stock. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
04-Jan-2007 21:28
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hm...ok cr_kai, if i may just offer my take here? i think what singaporegal means when she says she trades often is that she buys and sells within a short period of time (each trade). Most TA people would move fast, because the aim of TA is to follow the trend. I'm using a mix of TA/FA/sentiment (purists from all sides would scream at me), so to the best of my limited knowledge: what TA tracks, no matter what indicator/chart, is the actual price and volume. In that sense, to me it is the mathematical picture of sentiment. It attempts to put into a readable format what FA guesses at. And in this way it tracks the _trend_ that is _actually happening_. FA on the other hand is the extrapolation based on presumed ratios and averages (PE/NAV/premiums/etcetc) etc. It attempts to predict based on fundamnetal value of a company (as opposed to TA, which sees what directly _is_--ie, accounting for sentiment as well). THis is the research that most people do. _neither TA nor FA claims to be perfect/right_. The aim of each is simply to _increase_ the odds of you guessing rightly, and hence increase your chances of winning. Which is why, there are parameters within which each must exist. e.g., TA is not accurate on low vol stocks, pennies etc. For TA, it is all about the trend. Like simple mathematics: if you see that 1+2=3, and 1+3=4, then necessarily, 1+x must equal to something higher, assuming that x= all real positive nos (this last being the parameter without which TA would be wrong). and heh. tarot reading can be very accurate. but really. at the end of the day, it's all about profit. If you can find a method which works for you, does it matter if its TA or FA or fortunetelling? The reality of the market is only one thing: profit. Anyway, whatever way. |
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cr_kai
Senior |
04-Jan-2007 20:57
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hi sggal, when you say you trade so often, do you mean you trade often in many different shares or on the same share? if it's the former, i don't think it encompasses ALL TA people right? how long does one take to do a TA before jumping in to buy a share? if it's the latter, then i think i have mentioned it before already. i may not be a TA guy so i would just like to know a few things. how is a chart created? by buyers and sellers right? what makes a buyer buy and a seller sell? they do research and analysis, punt, listen to rumours, ride the sentiments, etc. so when they trade, a chart is formed. therefore by reading a chart, aren't you trying to predict what the buyers and sellers are going to do next? how can one EVER do that? it's like reading tarot cards or asking a fortune teller what will happen next. imho, it's just too vague to predict. no offence to all the TA people here. but it's just that my simple mind can catch the rational of TA. peace.:) |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
04-Jan-2007 18:38
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Hi cr_kai, Yes! I think brokers would love TA people because we trade so often. I buy and sell in relatively larger quantities so the commission charges have little effect on overall ROI. |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
04-Jan-2007 18:36
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Hi colorado, I'm a TA purist so I don't bother with PE ratios or what the FED does. I believe that whatever effect they have on the stock can be told from the charts themselves. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
04-Jan-2007 15:32
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hm...ok ipunter...for me this was not really a TA call but a FA (or tarot, if you wanna call it that since it's more sentiment i'm reading). I divested in 1st few mins yesterday at 1.45, even tho charts read upward trend. look at the volumes: they're very erratic. Large vols on some days. there's some manipulation. initially expected the drop to 1.39 but i'm thinking to previous levels now; prob 1.32-1.33. could prob go in then for long term divvy play. |
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colorado
Member |
04-Jan-2007 15:27
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Hi Singaporegal, If there is a 3 - 4% fall compared to its previous high and with a PE ratio of 29%, does that mean we stay away even with this correction? I personally feel that the FED will reduce interest rate somehow and that should be a positive factor for this counter or for property counters in particular. Since you are a trend person, will you still buy in and at what price? Thanks for sharing your expertise. |
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