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Massive selldown for Yangzijiang Post Reply Rate topic
limhpp Veteran	23-Jan-2008 14:45        limhpp About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	This poor guy affected by the BDI....... Company making $$$ still shot down... 0634 GMT [Dow Jones] Credit Suisse says offshore & marine cycle remains robust despite Baltic Dry Index''s 34% fall from its peak leading to substantive correction in shipping and shipbuilding stocks. Says breakeven point for newbuild capsize vessels remains about two years, despite BDI''s correction. "Firm oil price, multiple discoveries in offshore Brazil and the auction of new offshore tracts in the U.S., Brazil and India, to name a few, should sustain newbuild demand for offshore rigs and production systems." Says analysis supported by newbuild orders of more than US$1.5 billion Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (BS6.SG) received from Chinese shipowners in recent weeks; rates share Outperform with target price S$2.45. Share down 0.8% at S$1.20. (LES)
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elfinchilde Elite	23-Jan-2008 13:48        elfinchilde About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	overall pic still looks down. sellers outweigh buyers, esp on large lots (>100 lots) transacted. on the market depth, more sellers than buyers. buy support at 1.18, selling lidding at 1.25 (>1,000 lots queuing to sell here). may consider not buying yet... fyi only.
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ChinChye Member	23-Jan-2008 11:12        ChinChye About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	US not looking good... think this morning alot of pple run already... cut loss..
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limhpp Veteran	23-Jan-2008 11:09        limhpp About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Now, most of the counters are like that due to market sentiment. Looks like it is a daily event recently. Let's hope that US polluted air will be cleared soon.....
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cyjjerry85 Elite	23-Jan-2008 10:35        cyjjerry85 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	can see that confidence level this morning is still very low for YZJ...open at its highest...and till now...still below opening and trading near intra-day low
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jackjames Elite	22-Jan-2008 23:41        jackjames About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	yupe, didn't know it lei...
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cyjjerry85 Elite	22-Jan-2008 23:30        cyjjerry85 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	whoa...it had a record low
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jackjames Elite	22-Jan-2008 23:27        jackjames About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	OKay, I am aiming my final bullets at this counter now... too cheap to be good, IPO first day lowest is 1.25, only today who purchase the price in 1.16-1.25 are the BEST DEAL in the history of listing.. (don't say those who got it at IPO la..) good solid order books, with high 2.87 high (about 140% upside), this is the best bet... all funds analysist say yangzhijiang yangzhijiang, now so many ah pek aunties all get trapped.. But, should not act too fast tomorrow, have to cout in those people who play contra have to let go in this 3-4 days time,.... the price might be pressed down, but anyway, anyprice below 1.20 is SO SO attractive for a strong solid company... cheers!
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elfinchilde Elite	22-Jan-2008 21:17        elfinchilde About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	hi simck, oh ok, i see where you're coming from. How i set up technically for yzj is: MACD, MA crosses (3/8 days) for confirmation, bollingers, williams and price momentum. this is the long term set up. candlesticks (for short term). busd is the confirmation, esp for intraday scalp. so as per my 30th dec post (attached below): how i derived the sell call then: (not sure what CMF and OBV are (?), and i don't really like stochs cos it tends to generate false buy signals (8th jan-10 jan, 15-18 jan as egs)) but using SJ charts: (keejang, free advert for you! :P): on price momentum: if you were to draw a line from the peak of 12 dec to abt 26 dec (extends to 2 jan later as proof confirmative), the momentum has dropped quite drastically from 0.15 to 0.02. moreover, bollingers showed range was narrowing (ie, large px change occuring soon), as well as MAcross showing a sell signal. (you would either have ignored the false buy signal generated on 24th dec at 1.96, or if you had done so, followed and sold out 2 or 3rd jan at 1.96 on the sell signal--ie, no-loss scenario to the trader).  why it is a sell and not a buy even then is because the price held constant even though volume increased quite a fair bit btwn the two stated dates: from 23 mil to 33 mil. This indicates that a massive swing is likely to occur. Proof definitive came later from williams (you use williams and not rsi in a volatile market): if you look at the past year williams range for yzj, it goes from -100 to at least -10. However, this time, 27th dec and again on 2nd jan, it consistently failed to break above even the -30 mark. => indicates that any uptrend is likely shortlived and unsustainable. Rather, a large drop is in the works. I had called 1.77 as the support (hence cut if drop below it) then, as it was the stable px which yzj held in sept before its massive upswing. hence, any drop below that would make the definitive M formation (lower high, lower low). ie, would likely drop to aug 17 low at least. (definitely didn't expect it to go so low tho). and since then, (dec 26th, or 3rd jan if you had taken a false buy signal), on MAcross 3/8 days, there has not been a buy signal generated on yzj; in fact, it shows a steeper downtrend likely. This is supported by the MACD histogram: the red has not cut below the black histos yet, which means any uptrend is likely just a shortlived intraday tech rebound. hence, no buy signal on yzj at all since 26th dec. in fact, all the signals (for my setup) read run. ok, long story. hehe. pls note that i'm not always right yea. just sharing here. :)   -----------------  elfinchilde Master Posted: 30-Dec-2007 16:05 x 0 x 0 * Alert Admin beg to differ from pension. if you are a real tech player, you would not be "too late" to cut loss because whatever signals you use, if read accurately and emotionlessly, will tell you when to stop loss. a cut is a cut. if one chooses to hold beyond the signal on a dip, then, that is emotional trading, it's not technical analysis. not necessary to adopt long term position using TA. it depends on whether one is doing intraday trading, momentum, or longer term trend (which could be from a few weeks to a few months, depending on how one chooses to trade). there's no fixed period or fixed indicator, it all depends on what one chooses to use and if one can follow his/her own rules.   for those in this baby: yzj is rather weak. has been having lower highs and lower lows (altho the lows just ping off at equal level): proof: low on 20 Nov = 1.86, subseq high = 2.19 on dec 7; next low = 1.85 on dec 19, high = 2.05 on dec 27th. the saving grace is that vol is low. if drop below 1.77, cut. note: chaikin and a/d not very accurate for this counter. candlesticks (for scalp) and MAcross may be better. FA-wise, yzj is a growth counter, not a value counter.
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simck001 Senior	22-Jan-2008 20:03        simck001 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi, Elf, I was looking at MACD, MACD Histogram, Stoic Analysis, CMF & OBV. Basically, the MACD Histogram showed red bars turning green. And the momentum Stoic indicator showed that it was oversold. The OBV was uptrend. I ignored the MACD curve still being below the signal line. I must mentioned that I also ignored that Monday was a holiday for US market and our market would be like a headless chicken. After your post, reanalysis of the chart indicates that I was not critical enough on the earlier analysis. Thanks.
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asleep Member	22-Jan-2008 19:28        asleep About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I just find it sad that people can part with their money in shares so easily. But when they go into the book store to look for books to actually help them trade better, they will hesitate when the book is above $100 or sometimes even >$50, they will not buy it. Sure, a lot of books are crap out there, but you only need a few good books to make your savings multiply. Just spend 3 hours every week on reading up and taking down notes about what you read and do some reflection. Once you feel that you have leveled up, paper trade for a few weeks to test it out, before going in. Im pretty sure this will help your trading in the future.
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SamuelJ Member	22-Jan-2008 19:05        SamuelJ About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Indeed, one uses technical analysis to decide when to enter the trade and not to GAMBLE. For instance, it can be as simple as buying a stock on its support level and not resistance. So why despise TA when it can enhance a winning trade? It sure doesn't guarantee a 100% profit but with the Discipline to Cut your losses whenever you trade incorrectly at 10%. Overall one can still earn a substantial amount of profit. Technical Analysis is the study of Market Psychology. I personally adhere to Fundamental Analysis as well which is the study of the Company's Health and Well being. And when put together, you get a powerful combination that will certainly boost your investment opportunity.
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Manikamaniho Senior	22-Jan-2008 18:53        Manikamaniho About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Asleep... :) Well done, Sir...
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asleep Member	22-Jan-2008 18:35        asleep About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	TA is indeed quite powerful. I got stopped out a few times in dec, it stopped me from going long, and i went to short positions from the 2nd week of Jan, due to the downtrending of the market averages. Always play with a stop loss and do not compromise on it. A few friends of mine called me a dumb ass when I sold my shares during the Aug drop and later on they rebounded. I play by my rules and my rules ensure me that I will lose small and win more than I lose.
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ilovebull Member	22-Jan-2008 18:25        ilovebull About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I am also seriously wounded ... But I am lucky that I cut loss earlier at 1.50 (bought at 2.17). Sigh.....
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jackjames Elite	22-Jan-2008 17:12        jackjames About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	it's all time low.. damn !!!!! i wish i never play stocks before, and got fresh cash to play, aiyooooo....
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elfinchilde Elite	22-Jan-2008 16:54        elfinchilde About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	sigh. a genuine techie is either making money, or not losing any by staying at the side lines. panic is an emotion, it doesn't belong to TA. nor does itchy fingers. hehe. dun wanna go on defending TA liao. lots of way to trade; as long as one survives, its ok. cheers! :)
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ygc91285 Member	22-Jan-2008 16:50        ygc91285 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If TA is so powerful, everyone is making money now.....and there wont be any panic selling or buying. It just dun work during the period like NOW. Cheers
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SamuelJ Member	22-Jan-2008 16:37        SamuelJ About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Dear friends, Like many of you here, i have suffered burns in the recent stock market analysis due to either greed or fear. Literally thrown everything that was taught to me out of the window. Therefore, i created this blog a few days back and started to do some serious analysis NOT to manipulate anyone to buy or sell but to assist your research whenever possible. I did an analysis on Yangzijiang for the past 2 days in which it went according to what was analyzed. Im doing this because i understand there are many users here who will tell people to buy or sell just without doing any research themselves. And this is wrong.... Unless they have done any serious research i feel manipulating anyone here to trade is totally uncalled for. Of course im not trying to say my blog is darn god or what, it is just a simple trading blog for the average person out there. I just included some technical analysis such as Fibonnacci retracements, support and resistance level which is a psychological barriers f entry and exit. Also included in candlestick analysis which is a rather difficult analysis by itself to master. I hope my blog helps at least if you want to take the gamble and not do your own research, do it wisely. Good luck to all and Happy Trading =D Feel free to leave comments in my shoutbox or page. Thanks. http://singaporeinvestors.blogspot.com/
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ygc91285 Member	22-Jan-2008 16:11        ygc91285 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Cash is king.... We shall be back!
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