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NOL
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jackjames
Elite |
18-Dec-2007 22:08
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it looks like NOL trading heavily affected by this target price of $3.30.... break the low at Aug 17... , if tonight DOW closed above 100 points, we can contra NOL tomorrow, heee.. company perform shares buy back more than 5 times, some even at price of 4.90 ! amazing.. |
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jackjames
Elite |
15-Dec-2007 07:50
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wow.. target price only $3.30 for year 2008? eyeing this counter for so long.. sometimes, i wonder how come oil price didn't hit them hardly this time.. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
14-Dec-2007 23:50
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CIMB downgraded NOL to UNDERPERFORM; lower end-'08 target price to $3.30, pegged to CY08 P/NTA of 1.25x, which is the mid-point of its historical trading band of 0.5-2x. Their previous target price was $6.15, pegged to 2.3x CY08 NTA. They believe NOL will continue to be de-rated by the market on concerns over an economic slowdown in the US. FY08-09 EPS has been reduced by 6-12% on higher cost assumptions. Upside risks are potential value-accretive acquisitions or financial divestment of its valuable terminals. |
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dinghoki
Member |
14-Dec-2007 08:50
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For your information only. Don't bolt down all. Company update - US slowdown may affect container volumes by Raymond YAP
"As the US sub-prime crisis unfolds, we fear that the housing slowdown and credit crunch will affect growth in headhaul shipment volumes and freight rates. Transpacific operators may find it difficult to pass on higher operating costs in an oversupplied market. While Asia-Europe and intra-Asia volume growth should remain robust, NOL depends on transpacific trades for half its turnover. Meanwhile, bunker, crew and landside costs have been on the rise, and could affect NOL in the future. Downgrade to UNDERPERFORM; lower end-2008 target price to S$3.30, and reduce earnings by 6-12% on higher cost assumptions. We expect NOL to be de-rated as the threat to US growth become more apparent" Source: CIMB |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
12-Dec-2007 19:56
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NOL raised its fees 12% in the 4 weeks ended Nov 16 because of demand for Asian-made goods in Europe and the US. The company charged an average of US$2,860 per 40-foot container, compared with US$2,559 a year earlier. Volume rose 15% to 192,400 boxes. NOL's container volume from Dec 30 '06, to Nov 16 this year rose 12% yoy. Average revenue rose 3%. |
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asleep
Member |
27-Nov-2007 21:20
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Today is a distribution day, with a very obvious and nice reversal bar. Chart shows it is treading below its 200 day EMA. |
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Pinnacle
Master |
27-Nov-2007 18:12
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Deutsche Bank - Many earnings risks in 2008. Sell. P/B valuation above historical averages; Reiterate Sell While we acknowledge that 4Q earnings are likely to be strong, we are worried about earnings in 2008. Risks to earnings include (1) a US economic slowdown hurting revenue growth, (2) 12% p.a. global fleet growth in 2008-09 means that demand cannot afford to slacken, (3) rising fuel prices which may not be passed through. We think such risks do not justify the current 1.5x FY08 P/B, which is higher than the historical average of 1.1x. Maintain Sell with S$3.11/sh TP. We estimate 58% of revenue comes from North America Any slowdown in the US economy will definitely have an impact on NOL, especially since operating leverage is high. This slowdown is even more important in an environment where the global supply of vessels is expected to grow 12 ? 13% p.a. over FY08-09. Bunker fuel prices have risen 86% y-o-y; this increase will likely translate into rising costs in 2008. Earnings forecast raised, but we think earnings will decline in 2008-09 We have revised up our FY07-08E earnings 87% and 49%, respectively, as our forecasts were out of date, and the rate recovery this year was much stronger than we had expected. We think the rate rise is unlikely to continue at its current pace into 2008. 27% downside to TP; key risks include a drop in bunker fuel prices We have raised our 12m TP by 21% to S$3.16/share which is based on 1.1x FY08 price/book, the middle of its historical range. With 27% downside to TP, we are maintaining our Sell recommendation. Key risks to our downside view include strong demand recovery and a drop in bunker fuel prices. (see pages 9,10 and11 for more information). |
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ygc91285
Member |
27-Nov-2007 17:04
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$4 presents a good entry points for accumulation. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
25-Nov-2007 21:00
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jasonfaxingliu, I don't know about $5, but the company's share buyback and Dow's rebound could propel it towards $4.70 based on TA. In this kind of market, it's sell on rebounds. |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
25-Nov-2007 16:29
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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NOL's rise on Friday is not supported by strong volumes. Be cautious. |
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jasonfaxingliu
Senior |
24-Nov-2007 09:19
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NOL gone between 4.10 - 4.20 Friday so what do you think on Monday, zhuge_liang? In fact, I follow this counter when I long at 5 sold at 5.50 2 or 3 weeks ago. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
24-Nov-2007 01:01
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Neptune Orient Lines rose after Morgan Stanley said the company's share buyback programme could send the stock up to $5.00. "We think that NOL management views its stock price as attractive below $5 and its treasury share purchase activities can support a share price at above $4-5," Morgan Stanley analyst Sophie Loh said in a client note. She said that NOL could buy another 20 million shares in addition to the 2.2 million shares already bought in the market since mid-Aug. |
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ygc91285
Member |
22-Nov-2007 11:26
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Think uncertainty on the US economy... once the picture become clearer, then the share price will rebound. NOL has been buying own everyday to show confidence on the company outlook....shd be ok. But mid and long term outlook is v much on the US economy. Think it's the good time to accumulate when price is low. Good luck |
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syrix11
Member |
22-Nov-2007 08:17
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I'm wondering what happened... vested 1 lot @4.7, now only 4.08... no news on the frieght rates as well... might be due to fear in USA... |
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chunster
Member |
21-Nov-2007 18:14
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Wah, 40cts drop today!!! Anyone have any news on this? thanks! |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
04-Nov-2007 20:35
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Container shipping lines plying the busy trade route between Asia and the U.S. plan to raise freight rates and restore fuel surcharges to offset surging oil prices, an industry group said 2/11. The Transpacific Stabilization Agreement (TSA) container carrier group, which represents 14 shipping firms which sail from Asia to U.S. ports, said the changes will be factored into future contracts, noting the price of bunker fuel used by ships had risen 34% in the first 9 months of this year. The group plans to raise the rate for shipping a 40-foot container to the U.S. West Coast by US$400, and by US$600 for shipments to all other U.S. destinations. It also plans to impose a US$400 peak season surcharge from Jun to Oct '08. The TSA also said past contracts that have had fuel surcharges mitigated or folded into base rates will have those charges restored. "Lines will, of necessity, be pressing the issue of a full, floating bunker charge very seriously in upcoming contract negotiations. Fuel prices are far too volatile, and ocean carriers are far too exposed...to lock in a single price for a year," said TSA chairman and NOL executive Ronald Widdows in the statement. Fuel prices have spiked in recent months, propelled by crude oil prices that have surged to a record of more than US$96 per barrel. "At current price levels, fuel is no longer just another cost component. We're at a point where service levels are at minimum and, for some carriers, financial viability is threatened if we are not able to share these costs more equitably," Widdows said. TSA said other operating costs including inland rail and truck charges, and port handling fees, are also expected to rise up to 8%. The TSA plans follow similiar moves in recent months by its counterpart covering the America to Asia routes, the Westbound Transpacific Stabilization Agreement (WSTA). TSA members comprise NOL's American President Lines, CMA CGM, Cosco Container, Evergreen Marine, Hanjin, Hapag Lloyd, Hyundai Merchant Marine, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Mitsui O.S.K., Nippon Yusen Kaisha, Orient Overseas, Yangming Marine, Mediterranean Shipping and Zim Integrated Shipping. The TSA and its counterparts the WSTA and the Far Eastern Freight Conference which covers Asia-Europe, say they do not set container freight rates as that would constitute an illegal cartel in most countries. The groups say they look at factors such as economic growth and fuel costs and then recommend price adjustments. Each shipping line has its own rates. |
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mediacraze
Member |
01-Nov-2007 22:18
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 Thank you NOL
Great action today. |
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Pinnacle
Master |
01-Nov-2007 10:21
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CIMB - NOL (S$5.10) - 3QFY07 results - Still doing well despite US turbulence Above. Annualised 9M core net profit was 11% above full year estimate and 6% above consensus. The variance to our forecasts was primarily due to lower-than-expected net interest expense; annualised operating EBIT was in line with expectations. In 3Q, overall volumes grew 11.7% yoy, driven by robust growth on the intra-Asia (+14%) and trans-Pacific (+13.8%) trades. Asia-Europe volumes grew only 5% yoy on lack of capacity. Average rates in 3Q rose 8.8% yoy, primarily on the Asia-Europe (+16.1%) and the intra-Asia (+23.1%) trades. Rates on the trans-Pacific trades, which accounted for one-third of NOL?s volumes carried, did not improve significantly. The combination of higher volume and stronger rates drove up liner EBIT to US$192m in 3Q, more than double from a year ago and almost doubling from the immediately preceding quarter. Unit costs held steady on cost mitigation efforts, allowing the full impact of the stronger fundamentals to flow through to the bottom line. No dividends were declared, as expected. No impact from US slowdown so far. Despite the tightening of credit conditions after the sub-prime issue blow-up in August and the continuing slowdown in the US housing market, US economic data released yesterday suggests that the economy is still fundamentally sound. US GDP grew at an annualised rate of 3.9% in 3Q, ahead of 2Q?s 3.8%. Personal consumption expenditure grew 3%, against 2Q?s 1.4%, while retail sales growth also accelerated in the 3Q. NOL has not felt the effects of any purported slowdown and claim to be experiencing continued strong demand on trans-Pacific headhaul. Meanwhile, the depreciation of the US$ has helped increase demand for backhaul shipments. Maintain OUTPERFORM and target price of S$6.15 based on 2.3x CY08 NTA, referenced to the peak of NOL?s historical trading range of 0.5-2.3x. We have increased FY07 EPS by 25% to adjust for better shipping rates and lower net interest expense. Our forecasts for FY08-09 have been tweaked +1.5-3% on housekeeping. We believe that NOL will continue to enjoy the upward rate momentum in all trades, particularly on the robust intra-Asia and Asia-Europe legs. NOL?s capacity tightness will be somewhat mitigated by the delivery of 15 ships in 2008 and 16 vessels in 2009, on top of the 11 vessels to be delivered in 2007. |
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jasonfaxingliu
Senior |
01-Nov-2007 09:41
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yes, this is a good stock with great potential and should goes up to expection in just a matter of few days |
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Pinnacle
Master |
01-Nov-2007 08:23
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Morgan Stanley raises NOL to overweight Morgan Stanley has raised its investment recommendation for shares in Singapore's Neptune Orient Lines "NOL's valuation looks compelling at current price, given our positive outlook on the container shipping industry, as we believe that global demand remains strong despite U.S. demand slowing," Morgan Stanley analyst Sophie Loh said in a note to investors. Morgan Stanley raised its target price for the stock to S$6.30 from s$5.65. |
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