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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
boyikao3
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24-May-2010 13:24     
 
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 Alert Admin 		This is a good sign ! Good sign that this could be the euphoria of director's buying indicating a near term top in the markets! Huat Ah ! Directors buying most often indicates an over-confidence in future business prospects of the economy. When enthusiams are high and markets price actions diverge, then waning momentum is not far.... Smiley

GotChance      ( Date: 24-May-2010 13:10) Posted:



INSIDE MARKETS

Bullish directors buy for 3rd straight week

Buyback activity among listed firms also surged sharply

THE buying among directors rose for the third straight week while the selling remained very low based on filings on the Singapore Exchange in the third week of May.

A total of 21 companies recorded 50 purchases worth $27.2 million versus a paltry three firms with four disposals worth $1.76 million.

The number of trades and value on the buying side were up from the previous week's 40 acquisitions worth $17.3 million. The same factors on the sales side, on the other hand, were not far off from the previous week's two disposals worth $958,000.

While the buying by directors was up last week, the buyback activity among listed firms surged with 16 companies that posted 56 repurchases worth $19.6 million. The figures were sharply up from the previous week's eight firms, 21 trades, and $12.5 million.
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iPunter
Supreme
24-May-2010 13:23     
 
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 Alert Admin

First of all, I can never be your sifu... :)

Because I can only be a 'sifu' to myself, namely, mastering myself... 

Seriously...

I have so much to learn from you that which I don't know yet...

If people can know how many months the market will fall, then no one will go "pok!",

not even the biggest funds out there.

Perhaps Kelly or Alexchia* will  be able to give a better answer to your satisfaction than mine...

hehehe... Smiley

*recommended





yummygd      ( Date: 24-May-2010 12:46) Posted:



sifu ipunter can let me know how long does a bear market run normally???Months??or longer?Sorry ya am new so i dunno
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GotChance
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24-May-2010 13:10     
 
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INSIDE MARKETS

Bullish directors buy for 3rd straight week

Buyback activity among listed firms also surged sharply

THE buying among directors rose for the third straight week while the selling remained very low based on filings on the Singapore Exchange in the third week of May.

A total of 21 companies recorded 50 purchases worth $27.2 million versus a paltry three firms with four disposals worth $1.76 million.

The number of trades and value on the buying side were up from the previous week's 40 acquisitions worth $17.3 million. The same factors on the sales side, on the other hand, were not far off from the previous week's two disposals worth $958,000.

While the buying by directors was up last week, the buyback activity among listed firms surged with 16 companies that posted 56 repurchases worth $19.6 million. The figures were sharply up from the previous week's eight firms, 21 trades, and $12.5 million.
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ozone2002
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24-May-2010 13:10     
 
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 Alert Admin 		STI Index down 5.4% or 154 points last week.....inline with global stock markets.....what should you do ??!!.....
Saturday, 22 May, 2010  11:2 AM
Posted by Kevin Scully



Last week was painful for many investors especially if you were trying to trade the market or were leveraged as you may have had margin calls.  The table below gives a snap shot of what happened to our STI Index and some component stocks.  You will notice exceptional weakness in commodity related stocks such as Wilmar, Noble and Olam on specific cocerns such as alleged tax evasion to the imposition of taxes on excessive profits for commodity companies.   If we survived 2008 and 2009, this weakness is not new so dont panic.

  14-May-10 21-May-10 change % change Impact on  
          STI Index  
STI Index 2855.21 2701.2 -154.01 -5.4%   Contribution
            to week's fall
Worse index movers S$ S$ S$   Points %
Wilmar 6.42 5.54 -0.88 -13.7% -25 16.4%
Noble Group 1.93 1.69 -0.24 -12.4% -6 3.9%
NOL 2.14 1.89 -0.25 -11.7% -3 1.9%
SembCorp Marine 4.20 3.79 -0.41 -9.8% -4 2.5%
Olam International 2.51 2.30 -0.21 -8.4% -4 2.3%
OCBC 8.85 8.35 -0.5 -5.6% -14 8.9%
DBS 14.36 13.60 -0.76 -5.3% -15 9.5%
ST 2.96 2.86 -0.1 -3.4% -9 5.8%
SGX 7.74 7.50 -0.24 -3.1% -3 1.9%
UOB 18.98 18.46 -0.52 -2.7% -7 4.4%
             
            57.6%


It is interesting to note that UOB which our banking analyst feels is the best among the local banks in terms of lowest cost income ratio, best interest margin and highest CAR - was the best performing among the three local banks.

 What can we expect going forward ?

Markets are likely to remain volatile as it would take about three to six months before investors feel comfortable that enough has been done to address the problems in the EU - we went through this in the US in Q4-2008 till Q1-2010.  In my earlier Blog, I felt that the Euro would find support against the US$ at about the US$1.20 level - this would be good for the EU as it would help both their tourists and manufacturing sectors.  The chart below on the US$/Euro shows that we bounced just above the US$1.20 level.



Most global stock market indices have breached support levels and their 100/200 day moving average - this points to further technical weakness in the Dow which has support at 10,000 and then 9000.  Our own STI Index has support at 2700 and then 2500 and 2400.  But any decline to these levels is likely to be on thinner volume given that many investors are sidelined and waiting for events in Europe to stabilise.





The VIX will continue to be a good indicator of sentiment......it recently rebounded above 45 last week and is now around the 40 levels.  A drop below 30 would be a good signal for markets to resume their uptrend.



I am still positive on stocks and think that sentiment should improve into Q3-2010 !!

Putting aside the problems in Europe, the good news is that the economic numbers from the US and Asia remain strong, corporate earnings have been good and market valuations are not expensive.  The PER of the Shanghai market which used to be between 30 to 60 is now in the mid teens.  Our own STI Index and even the Dow are trading between 12-13 times PER - not expensiive.

Selected bargain hunting is my strategy.  The stocks in my Stock Picks are on low valuations, deep discount to their NAVs and have strong balance sheets - these should help them weather the current storm well.  Commodity stocks are likely to face some uncertainty in the new taxes on excessive profits which are being proposed and this may lead to earnings downgrades by analysts if implemented.

If you cant stomach the volatility given the high VIX, another strategy would be to stay sidelined and enjoy the World Cup - hopefully markets will stabilise by mid July and be poised for their next upward move.
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GotChance
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24-May-2010 13:07     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Good comments!  Looks like STI will go down later. 
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boyikao3
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24-May-2010 13:02     
 
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 Alert Admin 		So smart and confident ! Smiley

kellychang      ( Date: 24-May-2010 11:29) Posted:



well, everybody rmb 2 scenario.

1987 stock market crash and 2008 crash.

well, it looks similiar to current situation, anybody?

so, stop buying on dip.

i stop liao.

i now become guai guai..

exit all n just come here to share :)

 
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boyikao3
Master
24-May-2010 13:00     
 
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 Alert Admin 		This is as good as saying "We don't know" ! Smiley

GotChance      ( Date: 24-May-2010 12:20) Posted:

'We see this as a correction in a secular bull market for Asia,' said Timothy Wong, DBS Vickers managing director and group research head. 'However, we do not discount the possibility of a more severe correction in the event that global conditions deteriorate further in the coming months. This, however, is not a mainstream scenario for our house at the moment,' he told BT.
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yummygd
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24-May-2010 12:46     
 
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sifu ipunter can let me know how long does a bear market run normally???Months??or longer?Sorry ya am new so i dunno
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iPunter
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24-May-2010 12:28     
 
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 Alert Admin

I and Kelly can also give that same analysis...

Especially that first sentence...

Might as well not say it...

Because it is worst than uttering "LPPL"

hehehe... Smiley
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GotChance
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24-May-2010 12:22     
 
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Terence Wong, co-head of research at DMG Securities, also thinks that it is a correction, but added that we have yet to see the worst of the fall. The markets will stay subdued in May, June and July - the latter two due to the World Cup effect, he added.

Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist of AMP Capital Investors, is also of the opinion that the current sell-off is a correction and not a new bear market. But it is too early to say that shares and other listed growth assets have bottomed.
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GotChance
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24-May-2010 12:20     
 
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 Alert Admin 		'We see this as a correction in a secular bull market for Asia,' said Timothy Wong, DBS Vickers managing director and group research head. 'However, we do not discount the possibility of a more severe correction in the event that global conditions deteriorate further in the coming months. This, however, is not a mainstream scenario for our house at the moment,' he told BT.
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WLBO_BB
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24-May-2010 12:18     
 
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 Alert Admin 		look at the volume today....so low...so boring.... zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
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iPunter
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24-May-2010 12:17     
 
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"Good where?"...

Not "Good In Where?"...

 Now I become your "lao shi"...

hehehe... Smiley



kellychang      ( Date: 24-May-2010 11:35) Posted:

good in where?

hehehehe



GotChance      ( Date: 24-May-2010 11:33) Posted:

you also good leh Smiley 23
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rickyw
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24-May-2010 12:06     
 
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 Alert Admin 		why feel so slow bullish... afraid will go down later. how do u think?
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GotChance
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24-May-2010 11:54     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Good advisor ma.  At least you dont scare ppl by posting headline news but tell them to talk profits and then showing examples. 

kellychang      ( Date: 24-May-2010 11:35) Posted:

good in where?

hehehehe



GotChance      ( Date: 24-May-2010 11:33) Posted:

you also good leh Smiley 23
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kellychang
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24-May-2010 11:35     
 
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good in where?

hehehehe



GotChance      ( Date: 24-May-2010 11:33) Posted:

you also good leh Smiley 23

kellychang      ( Date: 24-May-2010 11:29) Posted:



well, everybody rmb 2 scenario.

1987 stock market crash and 2008 crash.

well, it looks similiar to current situation, anybody?

so, stop buying on dip.

i stop liao.

i now become guai guai..

exit all n just come here to share :)

 
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GotChance
Member
24-May-2010 11:33     
 
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 Alert Admin 		you also good leh Smiley 23

kellychang      ( Date: 24-May-2010 11:29) Posted:



well, everybody rmb 2 scenario.

1987 stock market crash and 2008 crash.

well, it looks similiar to current situation, anybody?

so, stop buying on dip.

i stop liao.

i now become guai guai..

exit all n just come here to share :)

 
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GotChance
Member
24-May-2010 11:31     
 
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 Alert Admin

What is a bear market?

Whe it got chance to finish the rebound...............  It goes straight back to the bottom.....which is............ 2676..............  today or tomorrow only...

 
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kellychang
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24-May-2010 11:29     
 
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 Alert Admin

well, everybody rmb 2 scenario.

1987 stock market crash and 2008 crash.

well, it looks similiar to current situation, anybody?

so, stop buying on dip.

i stop liao.

i now become guai guai..

exit all n just come here to share :)

 
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GotChance
Member
24-May-2010 11:26     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Hi Alex, i can see you are a good investor.  Me also taking no chance.  Got chance can mean either way leh.  Smiley 23
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