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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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topdog22
Senior |
02-Jun-2010 22:29
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Sorry about the font on the takeaways don't know what happened?? Curious how the volume has been very light for their sell off. see below: Growing sales force in direct markets, sales growth weighted towards 2HFY11 France and added headcount earlier in the year. Coupled with the promotion at major cardiology conferences (EuroPCR in May, TCT in Aug), management expects sales growth to be weighted towards 2HFY11. – BIG is investing in its direct sales force in meaningful markets such as�� estimate about 60% of BIG’s revenue is generated from the EU, but it also has a sizeable cost base in euros. Net-net, we estimate a 5% negative impact on the bottom line with a 10% decline in the euro. Revenue guidance of US$135-145mn maintained, but subject to FX risk – We�� for BioMatrix’s approval in China, as regulatory standards in China have become more complex. Jack Wang, the COO of Biosensors/CEO of JWMS, is in direct conversations with the SFDA, which appears to be requiring a few more advanced clinical data. BioMatrix’s approval in China – Management remains cautious on its guidance�� that the two companies remain in active and productive conversation. No further updates on JV relationship with Weigao – Management reiterated�� Jeffrey B Jump has over 27 years experience in the medical device industry. He joined Biosensors in 2003 as managing director for EMEA and was responsible for
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topdog22
Senior |
02-Jun-2010 22:25
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Yes: Much in line with their last report with showing an increase in net profits for this year and a price target of $1.17. See below: Closing price on 25 May S$0.79Price target S$1.17(set on 15 Mar 10) Upside/downside 49.0%Difference from consensus 36.0%FY11F net profit (US$mn) 41.90Difference from consensus naSource: Nomura Nomura vs consensus We believe consensus underestimates BIG’s core earnings despite recognising its strong
�� ActionBIG reported a good set of 4QFY10 results, in-line with our estimates, but beating consensus by 40%. DES revenue grew 68% y-y, driven by market share gains in existing markets and BioMatrix’s launch in France. Notwithstanding the FX risk, we remain positive on the stock as its strong operational trend is evident. BUY. �� CatalystsContinued momentum in its forthcoming results, the potential value-unlocking of its 50% stake in domestic DES (drug-eluting stent) supplier in China, JWMS, and Japan’s approval of Terumo’s Nobori, whose technology is licensed from BIG. Anchor themes The US$5bn DES industry is one of the most profitable segments in the medical technology space, with market share changes driven by innovation. Start-ups like Biosensors, with leading-edge technology, are subject to takeovers by incumbents. Bational Jit Soon Lim, CFA N Drilling downExhibit 1. Biosensors 4Q FY10 results FYE Mar (US$mn) 4QFY09 3QFY10 4QFY10 (% y-y) (% q-q) Remarks Revenue Critical care 3.0 3.4 2.9 (3.2) (15.0) Stable business Other int. cardiology 6.9 9.9 9.1 32.4 (8.2) Increased OEM sales in Asia and significant catheter sales to JWMS DES 10.7 16.5 17.9 67.6 8.9 Continued growth in existing markets & new market such as France Licensing & royalties 1.8 2.6 2.9 60.0 14.0 Strong 14% q-q growth by Terumo’s Nobori 22.4 32.3 32.8 46.8 1.6Gross profit Critical care 1.1 1.0 0.9 (15.2) (7.7) Interventional cardiology (DES + other) 12.2 19.8 21.1 73.1 6.6 15.1 23.4 25.0 65.0 6.8IC margin (%) 69.5 75.1 78.1 earlier quarters Licensing & royalties 1.8 2.6 2.9 60.0 14.0 Strong margins due to conservative accounting inJV contribution (JWMS) expense of margins (27% net margin vs 43% in 3Q) Net profit (ex-exceptional) (2.8) 9.8 9.1 nm (7.3) Full year net profit met 96% of FY10 forecast 2.8 3.1 2.4 (13.7) (23.4) Strong revenue growth trend (45% y-y) at theSource: Company data, Nomura research Other key takeaways �� 2HFY11 France and added headcount earlier in the year. Coupled with the promotion at major cardiology conferences (EuroPCR in May, TCT in Aug), management expects sales growth to be weighted towards 2HFY11. Growing sales force in direct markets, sales growth weighted towards– BIG is investing in its direct sales force in meaningful markets such as�� estimate about 60% of BIG’s revenue is generated from the EU, but it also has a sizeable cost base in euros. Net-net, we estimate a 5% negative impact on the bottom line with a 10% decline in the euro. Revenue guidance of US$135-145mn maintained, but subject to FX risk – We�� for BioMatrix’s approval in China, as regulatory standards in China have become more complex. Jack Wang, the COO of Biosensors/CEO of JWMS, is in direct conversations with the SFDA, which appears to be requiring a few more advanced clinical data. BioMatrix’s approval in China – Management remains cautious on its guidance�� that the two companies remain in active and productive conversation. No further updates on JV relationship with Weigao – Management reiterated�� Jeffrey B Jump has over 27 years experience in the medical device industry. He joined Biosensors in 2003 as managing director for EMEA and was responsible for
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allright
Senior |
02-Jun-2010 10:38
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Nomura also had a report on biosensors? | ||||
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iPunter
Supreme |
01-Jun-2010 13:19
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I agree with you... Though I will trade any stock which has a good chart setup that fits my criteria.  |
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alexchia01
Elite |
01-Jun-2010 13:05
Yells: "Catch The Stars And Ride With Them" |
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This is one of the reason why I don't trade Biosensors. Since their listing, never given a single cent of dividend. They have been in the reds for a couple of years, but last year, they made a profit. Even so, they did not announce dividend.
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lostbell
Member |
01-Jun-2010 11:30
Yells: "GOD BLESS EVERYONE!!!" |
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Why they did not announce dividend? If BIG make more than 30 mil profit, they should announce 1 cent dividend, this will cost BIG around 10 mil only right? Small investers will not be happy. big investers always wanted BIG with an attractive price for any MA opportunity. |
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topdog22
Senior |
31-May-2010 23:54
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Interesting how persistent CS is in their analysis. I suppose they subscribe to the theory that if one remains consistent - they will eventually be right. BUT in the meantime many fortunes can be made and lost. Or as Ralph Waldo Emerson (1803-1882) writer, stateman and philosopher stated " A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds" their recent analysis below: Biosensors International ----------------------------------------------------------Maintain NEUTRAL Better 4Q and FY10 results; more focus on sales & marketing but uncertainty ahead EPS: ▲ TP: ◄►Jinsong Du / Research Analyst / 852 2101 6589 / jinsong.du@credit-suisse.com Justin Liu / Research Analyst / 852 2101 7350 / justin.liu@credit-suisse.com ● on 26 May. FY10 total product revenue beat high-end guidance by 2% and net profit beat Credit Suisse’s forecast by 32% due to the implementation of cost reduction programmes. Biosensors reported better-than-expected 4Q10 and FY10 results● believes it achieved its target of an 8-10% global DES market share. With Biomatrix launched in Hong Kong, Korea and France, and next generation DES, BioMatrix Flex has received CE Mark approval. We expect momentum for DES to continue in FY11. With a 68% YoY increase in DES sales in 4Q10, the company● delay in Biomatrix’s approval in China, and uncertainty over discussions with Weigao on a JV partnership, we expect uncertainties regarding the FY11E profitability level to remain. However, due to the economic situation in Europe, a potential● to be acquired has become limited. The new CEO will focus more on sales and marketing, and a cost-reduction programme; we therefore increase our FY11E EPS estimate by 23%. With the management changes, we think Biosensors’ opportunitySource: Company data BioMatrix approval in China may be delayed Because there are more clinical data requirements in China, the company believes that its schedule for SFDA approval on Biomatrix is at risk of being delayed, and more sales expenses may be charged. The incremental clinical data requirements from the SFDA indicate that entry barriers to China’s stent market have increased significantly and should benefit existing players, in our view. As a reminder, the JV with Weigao did not sell BioMatrix stents. The JV contributed 46% to Biosensors’ FY10 net profit. New CEO appointment The company announced that Jeffrey Jump would become the new CEO. He used to be SVP of sales and marketing. After the transition, we believe the company will become more focussed on expanding its sales network. FY11E revenue guidance maintained For fiscal year 2011, management maintained its FY11E guidance that product revenue, excluding licensing and royalty revenues, will range from US$135.0 mn to US$145.0 mn. Increased sales would continue to be driven by the drug-eluting stent business. The company expects profitability to grow over the FY10 level on an overall basis, with the effect of higher revenues being offset by increased expenses required for revenue growth and development of future products. Price (26 May 10 , S$) 0.81 TP (Prev. TP S$) 0.75 (0.75) Est. pot. % chg. to TP (7) 52-wk range (S$) 0.88 - 0.46 Mkt cap (S$/US$ mn) 858.0/ 608.1 Bbg/RIC BIG SP / BIOS.SI Rating (prev. rating) N (N) [V] Shares outstanding (mn) 1,059.27 Daily trad vol - 6m avg (mn) 10.4 Daily trad val - 6m avg (US$ mn) 9.5 Free float (%) 57.2 Major shareholders Dr Yoh-Chie Lu (18.9%) Performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute (%) 0.6 (4.7) 43.4 Relative (%) 12.1 (2.8) 19.0 Year 3/09A 3/10A 3/11E 3/12E 3/13E Revenues (US$ mn) 119.0 116.2 154.5 195.2 247.0 EBITDA (US$ mn) 19.3 26.7 23.8 26.1 40.0 Net profit (US$ mn) (1.1) 32.1 25.7 31.9 45.5 EPS (US$) 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.04 - Change from prev. EPS (%) n.a. n.a. 23 43 - Consensus EPS (US$) n.a. n.a. 0.02 0.03 0.04 EPS growth (%) n.a. n.a. (19.7) 24.1 42.5 P/E (x) NM 19.0 23.7 19.1 13.4 Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0 0 0 EV/EBITDA (x) 24.5 18.3 19.0 15.8 9.2 P/B (x) — — — — — ROE (%) (1.1) 22.2 12.3 12.7 14.6
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iPunter
Supreme |
31-May-2010 17:01
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This is a counter for serious investors (potential medical innovations)... |
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Laulan
Master |
31-May-2010 16:56
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You're welcomed. Honestly, BIG is listed in a wrong exchange whose investors are less challenging or forward looking in health sciences, biotechnology and computer (IT) stocks. Our players tend to be always standing on the fence on these, so to speak, until there is a spark they could clearly see much unlike more agressive markets players who are more forgiving in giving higher PEs to their investments in stocks. Becareful when you trade sg shares. Cheers.
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ironside
Member |
31-May-2010 16:36
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Many thanks to you 'Laulan', will take some profit when the price is right. | ||||
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Laulan
Master |
31-May-2010 15:57
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If you are holding many lots, you can actually sell one third or half of your holdings and use the cash to wait for opportunity in the market, or even use for BIG when it starts moving.
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alexchia01
Elite |
31-May-2010 15:16
Yells: "Catch The Stars And Ride With Them" |
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You want to make money like a trader, but uses an investor strategy. You use a long-term strategy, but choose a short-term stock. You read the report like a long-term investor, but expect a short-term result. Wrong strategy, wrong stock, wrong analysis, wrong expectation. There is no meaning to this stock, you just need to learn how to trade properly.
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iPunter
Supreme |
31-May-2010 14:52
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Why not you go and learn some charting? :)
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Laulan
Master |
31-May-2010 14:49
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It is usually the case. Good news will attract the attention of longterm shorts who already shorted but not covered, and encourage them to quickly cover their longterm short positions as soon as possible. Thus it is a must for them that the price is within less loss or more profit. Don't sell. Let the price ranges for a few days, and then it should go up after that, probably by Wednesday.. I might be wrong, in which case you should sell and wait for better times. | ||||
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ironside
Member |
31-May-2010 13:49
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Invested this this stock for many years, FY10 finally see profit and profit will be better in FY11. After the announcement on 26.5.10, I expected the price to go up, instead it went down $0.005. Today it is down $0.01, can someone help to give meaning to this, thks. |
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Laulan
Master |
31-May-2010 13:14
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"Resume" from BIG via announcement at sgxnet. Mr. Jump has over 27 years experience in the medical device industry. Mr. Jump joined Biosensors in 2003 as Managing Director for Europe, Middle East and Africa. During that time he established the Company’s European headquarters in Switzerland, initiated the research and development team that created the Company’s unique auto-micro pipette coating process, and played a key role in designing the Company’s landmark LEADERS clinical trial. In 2007, he took on the global sales and marketing role, and in 2008, the global regulatory and clinical departments were added to his responsibilities. Prior to joining Biosensors, Mr. Jump served as CEO of Xitact Medical Simulation (acquired by Mentice AB). He also held senior managerial positions and has served on the board of various multi-national medical device companies. Mr. Jump received a Bachelor of Science degree from Indiana University, a graduate degree in management research from the University of South Australia, and a Master’s degree (MSc) from the London Business School. Note: Newbies, this info can be obtained from Sgx website. DYODD and BPFBMS-LOL 
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Laulan
Master |
31-May-2010 12:00
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Don't forget it is a good omen for Mr. Jump to take over Mr. Klien. Mr. Klien cleened up all unsightly mess in the past years and put the company in good prospective from loss to profit making, while Mr. Jump is going to make a big leap for the company when he takes over Mr. Klien who will still remain as non-executive director after July 2010. This is feng shui, believe it or not. The company is going to have very good things to cheer. Don't forget to buy a little at a time and keep it for growth. LOL.
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Laulan
Master |
31-May-2010 11:46
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Biotech stocks have shown to be one of the top revenue earners for S'pore. Biosensors has shown good progress. A dip is always the best time to accummulate this counter. Cheers. | ||||
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atul62312
Member |
29-May-2010 05:22
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The initiative taken for the concern is very serious and need an I am very pleased with the thought and don’t feel like adding
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iPunter
Supreme |
28-May-2010 15:12
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This is another glamour stock... Which receives much attention from many big boys...  |
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