i think u mean consolidating in a triangle.....  should buy for the breakup..........then sell.

Isolator      ( Date: 08-Jun-2010 14:36) Posted: If nothing goes wrong it should rebound in short term...and should go back down again... Just my feeling again...

Key takeaways from investor meetings (Nomura)

 

Investing in sales & marketing. Having received approvals in most key DES markets (ex-US, Japan and China), BIG's key focus is to drive market share gains organically in FY11 with its BioMatrix stent. While ASP decline is inevitable, BIG looks to establish more direct sales to enjoy the ASP upside.

 

Geographical mix: 70% EMEA/30% Asia. Management reveals its geographical revenue mix, which is tilted towards Europe. As such, BIG is exposed to a weak EUR. However, we believe the negative impact will not be passed through fully to the bottom-line as a significant portion of its cost base is denominated in EUR. We estimate a 5% negative impact on its bottom-line on a 10% decline in EUR. Management will provide updates on the FX impact on its revenue guidance in 1Q11 results.

 

Prioritizing strategic plans: China JV restructuring>dual listing. Investors question the potential of a dual listing in NASDAQ to achieve higher valuations. Management do not deny the possibility, but emphasized that its priority is to restructure its China stent JV which they hope to use as a distribution channel to sell its BioMatrix in China.

 

Key catalyst: Nobori's Japan approval in FY11F. Management highlighted that Terumo's Nobori, whose technology is licensed from Biosensors, is likely to be approved in Japan in the near term (5~18 months, according to different sources). We believe this will be a key milestone for BIG given that it is well-positioned to benefit from Terumo's dominance in Japan via revenue-sharing.

 

Other interesting facts. i) JWMS has a net cash of approximately US$50mn on its balance sheet; ii) BioMatrix's unit cost (manufactured in Singapore) is at least 40% lower than Terumo's Nobori (manufactured in Japan), which reaffirms our view of the potential synergies under a takeover scenario (Moving past the inflexion point, 16 Oct 2009). iii) Total R&D investment for BioFreedom clinical trials is approximately US$60mn over 3~4 years for CE Mark approval.

  Valuation Methodology and Investment Risks: We value Biosensors on a SOTP methodology- DCF for is base business, Terumo royalties and BioMatrix (9.7% WACC), 9.2x exit P/E to account for DES business valuation. We value its 50% stake in JWMS at 22x P/E. Key risks: i) Stent pricing pressure in China; ii) exposure to a weak Euro

 

Most probably "jia goo sai" (relishing bull dung)...

XiaoMaGe888      ( Date: 03-Jun-2010 15:37) Posted:  CS =Cjia Sai analyst

Growing sales force in direct markets, sales growth weighted towards

 

2HFY11 – BIG is investing in its direct sales force in meaningful markets such as

 

France and added headcount earlier in the year. Coupled with the promotion at

 

major cardiology conferences (EuroPCR in May, TCT in Aug), management

 

expects sales growth to be weighted towards 2HFY11.

 

�� Revenue guidance of US$135-145mn maintained, but subject to FX risk – We

 

estimate about 60% of BIG’s revenue is generated from the EU, but it also has a

 

sizeable cost base in euros. Net-net, we estimate a 5% negative impact on the

 

bottom line with a 10% decline in the euro.

 

�� BioMatrix’s approval in China – Management remains cautious on its guidance

 

for BioMatrix’s approval in China, as regulatory standards in China have become

 

more complex. Jack Wang, the COO of Biosensors/CEO of JWMS, is in direct

 

conversations with the SFDA, which appears to be requiring a few more advanced

 

clinical data.

 

�� No further updates on JV relationship with Weigao – Management reiterated

 

that the two companies remain in active and productive conversation.

 

�� Background on new CEO – Currently the head of global sales and marketing, Mr

 

Jeffrey B Jump has over 27 years experience in the medical device industry. He

 

joined Biosensors in 2003 as managing director for EMEA and was responsible for

 

establishing the company’s European headquarters in Switzerland.