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cyjjerry85
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21-Jan-2009 01:31

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was watching Obama's speech 'live'on MoneyCNN...looking at the DOW at the same time too..the moment he ended his official speech...DOW just slides instantly and broke -200

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louis_leecs
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21-Jan-2009 00:30

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Yells: "half cash"

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I1M OBAMA SW IN,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,8000POINT GOING BREAK THRU,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,DONT PLAY PLAY ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,REPUBLIC START SELL OFF LIAO,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,NO CHEERS

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nematic
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21-Jan-2009 00:10

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...i got a hunch that Dow will close 8160... :o

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louis_leecs
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21-Jan-2009 00:02

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I THINK SUPPORTOR START SELL OFF LIAO,,,,,,,,,,,,,,DONT FORGOT THE REPUBLIC GOT A LOT RICH SUPPORT,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,THEY START ACTION LIAO,,,,,,,,,,,,WITHDRAWL THEY MONEY LIAO.....,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

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handon
Master

20-Jan-2009 23:31

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me expect a hype market tomolo....

time to go koon liao..... hehe..... Smiley

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handon
Master

20-Jan-2009 23:20

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rebound to 8.3..... like this Smiley

to 8.5.... like this Smiley

to 8.8.... like this Smiley

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handon
Master

20-Jan-2009 23:12

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this time round.... want to make 2.5 buy.... hehe..... Smiley

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handon
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20-Jan-2009 23:09

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bot 8.13... die die must buy..... Smiley

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louis_leecs
Elite

20-Jan-2009 22:56

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I DECIDED GIVE TIS TIME A MISS FOR BUY LOW,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,SOROS SAY US MAY NEED MORE PLAN,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,FORTUNE TELLER ALSO PRIDICT CNY RALLY FAIL KICK OFF,,,,,,,,,AND TOMOROW ECOMIC DATA WILL BE BADLY ANNOUNCE BEFORE GOVERNMENT BUDGET,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,GIVE IT A MISS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,NO CHEERS

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cheongwee
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19-Jan-2009 02:08

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It is possible institution still do not come out clean in theit bad asset...like BOA..still next another dose of bailout..AIG was also one...

Can they keep bailingout anyone or everyone..all those who are too big to fail...

Then there come a time when they will be too big to save....if they run out of bullet and there are just too many of them , then they would have to throw in their towel and let them fail....then the whole world will be upside down.

two thing here...read with open mind and of course, the data must be taken with a spinch of salt.and.remember, most institution are not that honest..transparent..

MONEYANDMARKETS»

Friday, January 16, 2009

YOUR BEST SOURCE FOR THE UNBIASED MARKET COMMENTARY YOU WON'T GET FROM WALL STREET

[«] Money and Markets 2009 Archive

View This Issue On Our Website [»]

The more black holes D.C. fills, the more open up
by Mike Larson

Dear Cheongwee,

When I was a kid, black holes fascinated me. The idea that you could have an area of space so massive ... so dense ... that it could suck in and absorb ANYTHING that got too close — even light — seemed ludicrous. Like pure science fiction. But they're real.

These days, black holes aren't so fascinating. But unfortunately, they are very, very real. And they keep popping up throughout the financial sector ...

Bear Stearns. Lehman Brothers. AIG. Fannie Mae. Freddie Mac. Subprime residential mortgages. Alt-A loans. Conventional home loans. Commercial real estate loans. Student loans. Credit cards.

The Federal Reserve and Treasury Department keep coming up with new whiz-bang "solutions" to deal with these black holes. They keep opening up Washington's checkbook, allowing our tax dollars (or newly minted ones) to spiral toward their center.

But every time they do, another market or institution implodes somewhere else. Suddenly, there is a new, giant money-sucking black hole to focus on!

In fact,

I see three right now that are opening up — and that could torpedo the markets and the finances of our nation ...

Black Hole #1 —
Federal Home Loan Banks following Fannie,
Freddie, private banks over a cliff?

Unless you follow the banking industry closely, you probably haven't heard of the Federal Home Loan Banks. But the FHLBs are vitally important as a source of funding for U.S. banks both large and small. There are 12 of them spread around the country — in Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Cincinnati, Dallas, Des Moines, Indianapolis, New York, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Seattle, and Topeka.

You've probably never heard of Federal Home Loan Banks. But after the federal government, they're the biggest borrowers in the country!

FHLBs sell debt into the capital markets to raise money, using their AAA ratings to borrow cheaply. They use that money to make advances to banks that are members of the system and take collateral in exchange — often mortgages or mortgage-backed securities.

The banks use the money they get from the FHLB, along with cash raised elsewhere from their own debt sales and depositors, to make loans. The banks are required to own stock in the FHLBs, and that stock helps capitalize the regional FHLBs.

So what's the problem?

The FHLBs own billions and billions of dollars worth of mortgage backed securities. Those securities have plunged in value. So just like their banking customers, FHLBs are facing potentially huge write-downs on their portfolios. They may also be losing money on derivatives they employ.

And that's what is stressing the system.

Specifically:

The Seattle FHLB just warned that it may miss one of its capital targets. It may be barred from paying dividends on the stock member banks hold in it, potentially impacting those institutions counting on the money.
The San Francisco FHLB also said earlier this month that it was facing impairment charges, and that it wouldn't pay a fourth-quarter dividend as a result.
Moody's recently warned that eight out of the 12 FHLBs could ultimately face capital problems thanks to losses on their $76 billion of mortgage securities not backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Now here's where it gets really interesting: While many investors have never heard of the FHLBs, they collectively have roughly $1.25 trillion — with a "T" — in debt outstanding. That makes them the biggest borrowers in the U.S.— behind the federal government!

If you thought it was expensive to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (The Treasury has pledged to inject up to $200 billion in capital into the two of them), just you wait. Should the FHLBs need a bailout, there's no telling how much it will cost!

Internal Sponsorship

Please accept our sincere apologies
for the mix-up yesterday!

Our emergency briefing was to begin at 12 noon sharp. But at exactly 11:54 a.m., our video streaming provider, StreamLogics, was invaded by outside computer hackers that crashed their servers.

Fortunately, however, they've posted the complete recording and it is now available for your immediate viewing.

Just turn up your computer speakers and click here.

In other words, we're looking into the maw of yet another gigantic black hole!

Black Hole #2—
Insurance industry's capital and
surplus cushions are eroding fast ...

It's not just the banks that are in trouble. The insurance industry is taking a pounding, too. Losses on residential mortgage securities, commercial real estate investments, and other holdings are hammering capital levels throughout the sector.

The insurers are also getting hit because they guaranteed minimum returns on variable annuities — and the market subsequently tanked.

Take the life insurance sector ...

The industry's so-called statutory surplus, or difference between assets and liabilities — plunged 24%, or $76.8 billion, last year to $237.3 billion, according to research firm Conning & Co.

In an effort to rescue their collapsing balance sheets, some insurance firms are trying to get government bailout money by buying up teeny-tiny thrifts and banks.

For example, Lincoln National, an insurance firm with $173 billion in assets, is purchasing the miniscule Newton County Loan & Savings of Indiana (total assets: $7 million). That transaction could give Lincoln access to $3 billion in TARP assistance.

But that's mere peanuts compared to what the ultimate cost may be ...

One estimate says the insurance industry may have to raise up to $50 billion in capital. Unless market conditions ease up, that kind of money just won't be available from private investors. And that means we're staring square in the face at yet another black hole— one that Washington is already being called upon to fill.

Black Hole #3—
Pension funding picture
deteriorates dramatically ...

Then there's the dismal picture for the nation's pension funds.

States, corporations, municipalities ... they've all promised benefits to retirees based on assumptions about the returns for various asset classes. But those returns are being blown to smithereens, causing funding shortfalls of epic proportions.

The PBGC is $11 billion in the red. And with so many companies in bankruptcy, it may need a government bailout to rescue failed pension plans.

The consulting firm Mercer recently estimated that the pension funds of big U.S. companies are underfunded to the tune of $409 BILLION! At the end of 2007, they were running a $60 billion surplus. That huge swing could drive up corporate borrowing costs and drive down corporate earnings.

It could also lead to reduced business investment as companies are forced to divert money from equipment and facilities budgets to their pension funds. Advisory firm Watson Wyatt recently estimated that U.S. corporations will have to boost pension fund contributions to $111.2 billion in 2009 from $50.5 billion last year.

Now it's true that the government-backed Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) insures the basic benefits for more than 29,000 plans. But with so many companies falling into bankruptcy these days, it's increasingly likely the insurance premiums the PBGC receives won't be enough to cover its obligations.

The agency was already running a deficit of more than $11 billion as of September 30. And that number is poised to rocket higher.

Result: Yet ANOTHER black hole the government will have to fill somehow, either by bailing out the PBGC or bailing out corporations.

So at this point, I think it's reasonable to ask three simple questions ...

Can the government continue its policy of bailing out anyone and everyone?
Can the Fed and Treasury afford to keep filling black hole after black hole, without a heck of a lot to show for it ... except more black holes? Heck, even the black holes they thought they had filled are opening up again! Just look at Bank of America. The firm got a whopping $25 BILLION in bailout money several weeks ago, and now it's back in Washington begging for billions more!
At what point are policymakers just going to have to give up and let more banks fail, more companies fail, and more asset markets trade down to where they are going to go anyway, rather than waste hundreds of billions of dollars trying to retard the process?

Some food for thought the next time you hear yet another speech out of Washington promising the sun, the moon, and the stars — if only we bail out (fill in the blank).

Until next time,

Mike

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rpires
Member

17-Jan-2009 12:27

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one fo the reason why the dow , nas, S&P has ended in +ve territory is mainly due to the new rescue package initiated by the Obama regime, more funds injected into BOA and possibly the swearing in of obama into president office. this is bring a temperary relieve for the Dow, nas and SP to inch up high but maybe not for long.

nobody knows how much the -ve news has been factored into the indices. -ve downside limited unless more madoff, satyam probe into the market nws or worse case, more bankrupt among the financials.

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buysell
Member

17-Jan-2009 11:18

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Past 2 days has been Red when mkt opened but ended in Green, more green in the coming week.

cheers!

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exchange23
Member

17-Jan-2009 01:41

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only one word.

RECESSION

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des_khor
Supreme

17-Jan-2009 01:17

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Yells: "Tell me who is the God or MFT from this forum??"

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RED RED

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freeme
Elite

16-Jan-2009 22:51

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ya good. hope monday can see some profit of my 2 counter yanlord and capitamall

^eddy^ ( Date: 16-Jan-2009 22:36) Posted:

yay!!!

good start to DOW!!!!

up 100+ points liao

:)

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^eddy^
Member

16-Jan-2009 22:36

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yay!!!

good start to DOW!!!!

up 100+ points liao

:)

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freeme
Elite

16-Jan-2009 20:49

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haha. i bet other will rise but citi to go down so i can buy.. haha

$3 can liao

jackjames ( Date: 16-Jan-2009 20:03) Posted:

don't be surprise, you might see $5 tonight, LOL...

freeme ( Date: 16-Jan-2009 17:33) Posted:

Yest citi rebound from 3.4 when Im online. Want to enter but scare.. Today after they report duno will the price drop further anot..

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jackjames
Elite

16-Jan-2009 20:31

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Citigroup Reports $8.3 Billion Loss...

let's see if i can find any cheap deals tonight....

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jackjames
Elite

16-Jan-2009 20:03

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don't be surprise, you might see $5 tonight, LOL...

freeme ( Date: 16-Jan-2009 17:33) Posted:

Yest citi rebound from 3.4 when Im online. Want to enter but scare.. Today after they report duno will the price drop further anot..

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L.....
Veteran

16-Jan-2009 18:22

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last trading day before obama inauguration day on 20Jan09 morning - 19Jan is US holiday

tonight dow will shout cheong ahhhh... but not a realistic cheong surely everything will come down few days after that.. as usual...

cavaet emptor. just my thoughts

for those who bought tdy, sit on nice profits next mon, but watch supports and run ... not time for LT investors yet!!

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