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YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Massive selldown for Yangzijiang
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elfinchilde
Elite |
26-Feb-2008 13:43
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ha. idesa, since you're getting fat, can i charge you for an answer? :P the short answer, is no. yzj has a history of hitting -100 oversold. that's when you buy. -89 is not a buy call. note the rebound is likely shortlived tho. read my post below lah! geez... haha. cheers. :) |
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idesa168
Elite |
26-Feb-2008 13:23
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You all discussed so much... so at this price $1.22 can buy or not!...I shorted this at 1.24 this morning. I have yet to cover. Today busy shorting...SPC, SYNEAR...all make me fatter today. |
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limhpp
Veteran |
26-Feb-2008 11:38
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0333 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse keeps Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (BS6.SG) at Outperform with target price unchanged at S$2.00 after FY07 net profit rose 90% to CNY860 million, beating consensus estimate by 16% on firm margin, higher interest income. Notes FY07 revenue marked 98% of house''s estimate of CNY3.9 billion, operating profit slightly above house''s estimate on better than expected margin of 19.9% vs estimate of 19.2, 2006''s 19.4%. Says major earnings surprise from nonoperating items, including CNY76 million gain on disposal of available-for-sale assets, net interest income of CNY121 million. Raises FY08-09 EPS estimates 1% to factor in higher cash balances, interest income going forward. "While execution of higher value orders - newbuild prices have risen 22% on average since early 2006 - and efficiency gains may mitigate margin pressure from rising equipment, materials, and labor costs, we remain cautious by leaving our operating margin estimates at approximately 18%." Share flat at S$1.23. (LES) |
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Farmer
Master |
26-Feb-2008 09:42
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Good analysis elf, esp on the FA part which I'm fully agree! I like the sentence :" Hence a strong baseline support would be around 88c-95c, its IPO price. This would be fundamentally and technically supported." which i share and look forward to collect this counter if materialise in due course. 
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
26-Feb-2008 09:21
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Today 26 Feb from CIMB: Dry Bulk Shipping - Baosteel strikes agreement with Vale China?s steel mills agree to 65% price hike with Vale Major catalyst for the Baltic Dry Index. Last Friday, the press reported that Baosteel, which represents China?s steel mills, had agreed to accept a 65% price hike for iron ore imports from Brazil?s Vale, the world?s single largest iron ore miner. China?s steel mills were the largest importer of seaborne iron ore last year, taking up 50% of the world?s sea trade in this commodity. This latest agreement between Vale and China follows previous deals over the past 1-2 weeks. It is unclear how long Rio and BHP will continue to push for the equalisation of the cfr price but we think that Vale?s success with Baosteel increases the likelihood that an agreement between China and the Australian miners will be struck soon. Valuation and recommendation Maintain Overweight on dry bulk shipping, with an Outperform call on Thoresen Thai and Trading Buy calls on Precious Shipping and Maybulk. Dry bulk stocks have historically moved in line with the momentum of the Baltic Dry Index. We believe that the time is right to invest in the sector because freight rates are likely to surge upwards once the iron ore price negotiations are completed. The fundamentals of the sector are also strong through most of 2008, with newbuilding supply of 30m dwt easily absorbed by growth in demand, and the contribution of longer shipping distances for the iron ore and coal trades. |
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
26-Feb-2008 08:51
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YZJ is indeed oversold... i saw one more gd news... 25 February 2008 Baltic Dry Index (BDI) +109 7296 |
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giantlow
Master |
26-Feb-2008 08:25
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very comprehensive analysis, elf. i always enjoy reading your post. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
26-Feb-2008 01:05
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mazimaz10, perhaps it is best that you make up your own mind on this counter? if you have held it for a long time since 2+, and have spare cash, then may not be worthwhile to cut loss. It all depends on your buy px, your holding period, and cash available. hi cyjjerry, yeps, it's quite spectacular earnings that they've reported. the only thing is, it's still overpriced by standard FA terms. In volatile markets, there's a return to fair value, read as 2-3x book to price ratio: so yea, very strong book order (7 bil) and profits are undeniable (cash flow up 220%). but looking ahead: liabilities have increased, debt has also increased. it's a pace by pace match of positives and negatives. so back to FA basics: NAV of yzj in S$ is ~ 25.3c (RMB 126.61c). --at 3x book to price, fair value is hence abt 76c. EPS is 28.3c RMB (equivalent ~ 5.6c in S$). So assuming average PE ratio of 20x, fair value is given as 1.12. Which is probably why Fidelity sold before the news released. (Fidelity mgmt is one of the biggest global fund mgmt houses ard). If you check substantial shareholders (SGX announcement), Fidelity sold on 20th feb, before the news today. (the selling today is somewhat fishy too, if you ask me. too many large lots being released. ) Hence a strong baseline support would be around 88c-95c, its IPO price. This would be fundamentally and technically supported. Note: the above is via FA reading. By technicals, shortterm (ie, <10 days): your support is at 1.2 and 1.16. resistance at 1.38, then 1.45. williams shows -89 oversold. so it's likely to do a tech rebound soon. happy hunting! caveat applies as usual. cheers! |
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
26-Feb-2008 00:22
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gEez...tt's just a personal forecast...btw, how come u can read my mind tt i m looking at $1.29 exactly? wOw! |
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Naproxen
Veteran |
25-Feb-2008 23:43
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So Jerry looking at 1.29 ? |
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
25-Feb-2008 23:09
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irrational selling today for YZJ...din noe so many ppl no confidence of its profits and outlook...well...the faith in this counter has paid off~! in this negative sentiment market...it might not shoot tt high yet lar...ppl need to absorb the info and finally realize after some time tt this is a counter worth vesting |
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jackjames
Elite |
25-Feb-2008 22:02
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so, now tomorrow opening price is 1.30 lo... |
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
25-Feb-2008 20:27
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so today the price went down like this....i m really clueless y so? the reports below can be found on SGX...its astonishingly great~! anybody can explain why the price still go down to such an extent today...really puzzled |
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
25-Feb-2008 20:24
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The Group has a strong order book of approximately USD 7 billion as of 31 January 2008, of which USD 5 billion was secured in year 2007. The vessels in the order book are slated for completion and delivery till first half year of 2012. Dividend: The Directors proposed a first and final exempt (one-tier) ordinary dividend of SGD1.565 cents per ordinary share |
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
25-Feb-2008 20:20
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Latest news announcment from Yangzijiang as of 25Feb 2008 at 7.18pm: The Group reported a 66 percent increased in Revenue from RMB 2.3 billion in FY2006 to RMB 3.9 billion in FY2007. Correspondingly, the Group saw a 90 percent increase in net profit RMB 453 million in FY2006 to RMB 860 million in FY2007. Operating Profit Operating profit increased by 71 percent from RMB 449 million in FY2006 to RMB 767 million in FY 2007 mainly dueto higher revenue. Other incomes Other income mainly includes exchange gain, interest income and gain on disposal of available for sale financial assets, increased by 57 percent from RMB 81 million FY2006 to RMB 223 million FY2007. Increase in interest income is mainly due to the higher cash holdings of the Group as a result of higher prepayments from our customers and proceeds from the IPO. Expenses Administrative expenses, including IPO and listing related expenses increased by RMB 70 million from RMB 48 million in FY2006 to RMB 118 million in FY2007, while finance expenses reduce from RMB 10.5 million in FY2006 to RMB 0.13 million in FY2007 due to repayment of bank borrowings. Assets Property, Plants & equipments increased from RMB 659 million in FY2006 to RMB 1230 million in FY2007. The increase is mainly due to the facilities expansion for Jiangsu New Yangzi shipbuilding Co., Ltd. Account Receivable Trade receivables increased by RMB 306 million from RMB 294 million in FY2006 to RMB 560 million in FY2007 as a result of higher sales. Other receivables, prepayments and other current assets Other receivables and current assets increased by 59 percent from RMB 2,230 million in FY2006 to RMB 4,151 million in FY2007 due to increase in shipbuilding activities and need to secure certain inventory for the shipbuilding activities in the coming years. Equity The Group?s total equity increased from RMB 468 million in FY2006 to RMB 4,308 million in FY2007. This is due to the Group?s earnings for the current financial year and share capital increase from our IPO in April 2007. |
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Naproxen
Veteran |
25-Feb-2008 19:52
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What price did you buy? |
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mazimaz10
Senior |
25-Feb-2008 18:29
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Good to keep or cut loss? Any advise. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
25-Feb-2008 16:12
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careful. large lots selling for some reason. had 1,000 and 500 lots thrown at 1.24 earlier. 1.2 support, then 1.16. not vested. fyi only. btw: there's major play going on in some counters. operators out and about. take care. |
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
25-Feb-2008 14:51
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i guess it will close $1.24 today...looking at the current sell and buy queue... so sianz...buy volume queue at 2.2million and sell volume at 1.5million at the moment....ridiculous ...simply a bore probably can get it much cheaper |
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freeme
Elite |
25-Feb-2008 14:43
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Haha.. this is really a disappointing counter.. Dun bother to get in unless it goes below 1.2! |
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