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bsiong
Supreme |
06-Apr-2011 22:20
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Can Gold's Rally Past $1,450 Last?By Alix Steel 04/06/11 - 09:59 AM EDT NEW YORK (TheStreet ) -- Gold prices were soaring to new highs Wednesday on safe-haven buying and as traders re-entered the market. Gold for June delivery was adding $7.60 to $1,460.10 an ounce at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The gold price has popped to $1,462.30 and has traded as low as $1,452.50 while the spot gold price was adding $2.30 an ounce, according to Kitco's gold index. //* Diversify your portfolio, invest in land and get a handsome return of 15-20%pa in 4 to 5 years. //* |
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bsiong
Supreme |
06-Apr-2011 22:06
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Morning Gold & Silver Market Report 4/6/2011April 6, 2011NEW HIGHS FOR GOLD, SILVER Gold and silver hit new highs (record for gold, 31-year for silver) this morning thanks to their safe-haven appeal. Commerzbank analysts explain, The current climate is still favorable for precious metals. Continued unrest in North Africa and in the Arab world and the debt crisis in euro-zone peripherals, coupled with the weak U.S. dollar and still loose monetary policy of western central banks are fueling price speculation. Libyan rebels are unhappy with NATO support (or the perceived lack thereof), as they say they have not given them what they need. The French Foreign Minister says coalition pilots are unable to identify targets on the ground because they are using the same type of equipment, and also said that the coalition is not ready to arm the rebel forces. There is good news out of Japan, as the leakage of radioactive water into the sea has been plugged. However, there is still a need to pump 11,500 tons of contaminated water back into the ocean, as there is no storage space left at the facility. Matthew West of CNBC has pieced together a great article on gold, explaining the bullish sentiment towards precious metals and, also, why gold as a hedge is here to stay. Our own Michael Haynes explains, Gold is the only currency that cant be manipulated politically in the way that currencies, say, can and often are. And all currencies in the end are valued against it. Its been like that for the last 4,000 years. At 8AM (CT) the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:
Diversify your portfolio, invest in land and get a handsome return of 15-20%pa in 4 to 5 years. |
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bsiong
Supreme |
06-Apr-2011 19:35
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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bsiong
Supreme |
06-Apr-2011 19:33
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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x 0
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Gold hits fresh record-highs, silver at 31-yr peak* Gold hits second record in a row as dollar slides * Silver at 31-year peaks * Coming Up: U.S. Midwest manufacturing 1330 GMT By Amanda Cooper LONDON, April 6 (Reuters) - Gold rallied to a second consecutive record high on Wednesday, powered by a slide in the dollar and by investor demand for safe-haven assets, while silver hit fresh 31-year peaks. Unrest across the Arab world and unease over the euro zone's debt finances encouraged inflows of cash into gold, which has risen by more than 2 percent this week. This has more than offset the potentially damaging impact of China's latest increase in interest rates and a less pessimistic take on the U.S. economy from the Federal Reserve. The focus this week is on Thursday's three central bank policy meetings, at which the European Central Bank is almost guaranteed to raise rates, thereby boosting the euro against the dollar, while the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England are expected to hold their fire. Spot gold XAU= was last up 0.6 percent at $1,459.40 an ounce by 1041 GMT, having hit an all-time high of $1,460.40 earlier. Gold has rallied by more than 5 percent in the past three weeks. COMEX June gold futures GCv1 were last up 0.6 percent at $1,461.20, having touched a contract high of $1,461.70. " Six months from here, we think (the strength) is sustainable for both gold and silver, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see a short-term pullback because a lot of this is driven by the euro, which is pretty strong against the dollar," said Standard Bank analyst Walter de Wet. The dollar fell to 14-month lows against the euro, which has been buoyed by signals from policymakers that the ECB will raise rates on Thursday for the first time since July 2008 in spite of the debt crisis in the bloc's weaker economies. [FRX/] NO CHANGE FROM THE FED The minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's most recent meeting, released on Tuesday, did not contain anything to suggest the central bank would end its $600 billion bond buying programme ahead of time. " With gold close to its highs, there could be some reluctance to buy at these elevated levels, especially given the uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy and the expected ECB rate hike tomorrow," said UBS strategist Edel Tully. " While a move to monetary policy tightening is not necessarily gold-positive, the inflation risks spurring the euro zone tightening are supportive of gold," she said. Record-high food prices and oil prices at 2-1/2 year highs have stoked inflationary pressures around the world, adding to the case for owning gold, which can help mitigate the impact of rising price pressures on an investment portfolio. The world's central banks are tackling inflation by tightening monetary policy -- a potential negative to gold, which bears no yield. But most benchmark interest rates, when adjusted for inflation, will remain in negative territory, including those in China, which raised rates on Tuesday for the fourth time since October. [ID:nSGE735004] Reflecting the pick-up in investor demand for gold was the
first inflow of metal into the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the
world's largest exchange-traded fund, since March 16. [GOL/SPDR]Global holdings of gold in the largest ETFs are down 3.3 percent, or 2.09 million ounces, so far this year, but have risen by nearly 200,000 ounces in the last month alone. Silver has reaped the benefits of investor demand for safe-haven assets and protection from inflation and on Wednesday rose to its highest level since January 1980. Spot silver XAG= was last at $39.50 an ounce, having risen earlier by as much as 0.8 percent to $39.54. Holdings of silver in the world's largest ETF, the iShares
Silver Trust (SLV) are at a record 11,162.45 tonnes, having
risen by more than 240 tonnes so far this year.// |
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bsiong
Supreme |
06-Apr-2011 14:44
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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 Spot gold may hover around $1,452 per ounce for one trading session before climbing towards $1,477, according to Wang Tao, a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. /*--// |
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bsiong
Supreme |
06-Apr-2011 14:41
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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SINGAPORE, April 6 (Reuters) - Gold held on Wednesday near a lifetime high hit in the previous session as lingering worries about inflation and tensions in the Arab world offset China's latest move to raise interest rates. Silver hit another 31-year peak as the metal attracted interest from investors looking for a cheaper alternative to gold as a hedge against inflation. The gold:silver ratio dropped to a 28-year low at 36.93. Spot gold added $2.90 an ounce to $1,453.50 by 0601 GMT -- not far from a record of $1,456.85 hit on Tuesday on rallies in corn and oil prices and a downgrade in Portugal's credit rating that highlighted euro zone debt worries. " Gold is still looking to hit another record. Tensions in the Middle East and North Africa are not solved yet. Secondly, there are new uncertainties in the euro zone. These all will benefit gold," said Ronald Leung, director of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong. " The only thing is that the increase in Chinese interest rates will be a negative factor for a little while." The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust , said its holdings inched up to 1,212.745 tonnes by April 5 from 1,211.229 tonnes on March 31. Spot gold may hover around $1,452 per ounce for one trading session before climbing towards $1,477, according to Wang Tao, a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. U.S. gold futures for June rose $2.50 an ounce to $1,455.0 an ounce. China's central bank raised interest rates on Tuesday for the fourth time since October, underlining Beijing's determination to clamp down on inflation. The increase comes before an expected rate hike by the European Central Bank on Thursday -- which would be the first since the global financial crisis, showing how inflation is rising to the top of the global policy agenda. China's interest rates hike often triggers fears of a slowdown in the country's demand for commodities, including gold and industrial metals, but London copper futures firmed on Wednesday and ignored Beijing's latest move. The 25 basis point rise announced by Beijing was viewed as just the latest step in a tightening cycle which has been going on for some time and was expected to continue. Investors will still focus on the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, which has also spurred buying in silver and pushed up oil prices. Spot silver rose to as high as $39.42 an ounce, its highest level since early 1980, extending Tuesday's gains. " There's buying in silver but we don't really know whether it's coming from China or anywhere else. We can say silver is cheaper to buy compared to gold," said a dealer in Hong Kong. " Silver will go up to $40 and it could rise to $100 in the next few years." Other dealers said India showed some interest in silver during the wedding season, when parents give jewellery, mostly gold, to their daughters. In other markets, the yen fell as the Bank of Japan began a meeting on Wednesday that may signal its readiness to further loosen monetary policy to support the earthquake-hit economy, while Asian stocks were muted after the interest rate rise in China. |
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bsiong
Supreme |
06-Apr-2011 14:30
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Gold advances on escalating Europe debt crisisSINGAPORE (Commodity Online) : Gold extended gains Wednesday as investors remained worried over Europe's debt crisis and uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa.Spot gold was seen trading at $1454.91 an ounce at 12.30 p.m Singapore time while gold for June delivery was seen at $1455.97 an ounce on the comex division of Nymex. Analysts said uncertainty about what may be next in Europe and in oil-rich countries like Libya is prompting investors to buy precious metals, which have the reputation of being relatively stable. They added that Analysts say prices of both metals could continue to increase until there is more clarity about global events. Silver also gained as cash silver was at $39.445 an ounce at the same time, the highest level since 1980. Meanwhile, the gold-to-silver ratio continued its descent as the white metal climbed to its most expensive level versus bullion since 1983. An ounce of gold bought 37.02 ounces of silver Wednesday , compared with an average of 62 in the past 10 years. On Tuesday, Gold for June delivery added $19.50 Tuesday to settle at $1,452.50 an ounce. Silver gained 68.9 cents to settle at $39.183 an ounce. /* /* |
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bsiong
Supreme |
06-Apr-2011 09:33
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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fFor your reading pleasure...... the writer's prediction is $1639..... Fibonacci Gold  John Townsend, The TSI Trader 3 April 2011  We will begin with a simple weekly chart of the World Gold Index (XGLD) and employ a diagonal support trend line and three horizontal lines identifying price breakout levels. No doubt you will notice that price movement has been subdivided into three completed stages, each separated by a new break higher through a horizontal resistance line. And, current price is contemplating a move higher that would take it into a fourth stage of the up leg. This first chart gives us a general concept of the shape, size, stages and elapsed time of this massive up leg in gold. This will be important to keep in your mind as the following charts will add considerable visual complexity to this price history. I am going to present three charts that have taken various Fibonacci measurements into consideration and identified their location on the gold price chart. This first chart observes the Fibonacci relationships of price movement. Measurements are taken from price movement that results in a low, a high or a breakout. The second chart observes the Fibonacci relationships of lows, highs and breakouts measured in terms of time. The third chart attempts to consolidate and simplify the most significant details of the two preceding charts. This chart details both Fibonacci price movement and time on a single chart and offers a possible future outcome for price movement within a specified time frame.  Each Fibonacci measurement uses the base price of $681 which was the price of gold when this up leg began in October 2008. I have retained the white horizontal lines that subdivide price movement into three complete stages, though admittedly you will have to look carefully to find them. They are identified as Level 1, Level 2 and Level 3. Level 1 concluded with a bullish breakout that rallied 38.2% while Level 2 concluded with a breakout that climbed 23.6%. Price is presently at the Level 3 horizontal resistance level and should it breakout and also rise 23.6%, gold would be taken to somewhere around the $1639 area. I found it interesting that most lows (but not all) were in Fibonacci relationship with a high that followed it. Also, literally every time price reached the diagonal trend line it turned out to be a significant Fibonacci price level for either a future local high or a return to the trend line. Finally, the Level 2 and Level 3 price levels were each affirmed with a Fibonacci relationship.  This next chart considers various price landmarks and their Fibonacci relationships observed in terms of time. Unlike the previous chart that uses the $681 price of Day 1 as the basis of all observations, this chart notes the Fibonacci time relationships that exist using many different starting points, each of which is associated with either a low, high or breakout of a resistance level. My impression of this Fibonacci time data is that it may be an even stronger determinant of significant price turning points than we observed in the previous chart of Fibonacci price data. This suggests to me that gold does indeed has strong cyclical and seasonal characteristics. Nearly every significant low, high and breakout had a Fibonacci time relationship with another price landmark that followed. I was truly amazed at the intricate time relationships I found and I am sure I did not find them all.  This final chart is my attempt to synthesize the preceding charts, simplify and offer an hypothesis on future price movement. But rather than use the previous model that included significant consideration of the horizontal price levels that separate the three concluded stages, I decided to take a fresh look at price action and made some interesting discoveries. Here I have subdivided price movement into four stages which are identified using four different colored rectangular borders. Each stage has a singular similarity - that being significant price action occurring at the Fibonacci 61.8% level of the rectangle, as measured from the baseline price of $681 to the top of the rectangle. We note that the height on one rectangle become the identified break out level within the next rectangle. And, each rectangle is separated by a drop in price movement that rejoins the long term trend line before beginning the next rectangle. Future price movement suggests the current rectangle will top at $1639. Various Fibonacci 50% time relationships are illustrated. If the February 2010 low is of large scale significance, it would be the 50% midpoint of gold's beginning in October 2008 and somewhere around May 23, 2011. Also, if gold should break out this week within the fourth rectangle that would correlate nicely with the breakout within the first rectangle, as the midpoint of this time frame is the beginning of the third rectangle. Finally, we are presently at the 50% mark of the time frame contemplated for the current fourth rectangle. If you have comments, questions or new insights about the Fibonacci relationship of the current gold up leg and want to share them with me, just send me an email. John Townsend tsiTrader@gmail.com /* |
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bsiong
Supreme |
06-Apr-2011 09:04
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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x 0 Alert Admin |
NEW YORK (TheStreet ) -- Gold and silver prices reversed earlier losses and soared Tuesday as disappointing U.S. economic data sent investors into metals as protection against global uncertainty. Gold for June delivery settled up $19.50 to $1,452.50 an ounce at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The gold price traded as high as $1,455.50, a record, and as low as $1,431 during Tuesday's session, while the spot gold price was rising more than $18, according to Kitco's gold index. Gold was moving higher in after-hours trading on the release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's last meeting on March 15. |
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bsiong
Supreme |
06-Apr-2011 08:58
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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SINGAPORE, April 6 (Reuters) - - Gold firmed on Wednesday and held near a lifetime high hit in the previous session as inflation fears lingered after crude and corn rallied to new peaks, while silver edged down, having risen to its strongest level in more than three decades. FUNDAMENTALS * Spot gold added $1.65 an ounce to $1,452.25 an ounce by 0028 GMT, not far from a record of $1,456.85 hit on Tuesday. Spot silver eased 11 cents to $39.12 an ounce, having rallied to $39.29 on Tuesday, its highest since early 1980. * U.S. gold futures for June rose $1.5 an ounce to $1,454.0 an ounce. * The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust , said its holdings inched up to 1,212.745 tonnes by April 5 from 1,211.229 tonnes on March 31. MARKET NEWS * U.S. corn futures edged lower in early Asian trading on Wednesday after racing to a record high in the previous session, spurred by thin U.S. supplies. * The Japanese currency extended its decline early in Asia on Wednesday, hitting fresh 11-month lows against the euro and the Australian dollar and looking to deepen its losses as technical support levels threaten to give way. * Brent crude jumped to a 2-1/2 year peak above $122 a barrel on Tuesday, gaining for a fourth straight day as conflict and unrest in Africa and the Middle East more than offset China's latest interest rate hike. |
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bsiong
Supreme |
06-Apr-2011 08:55
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Gold chart (last 500 hrs)  /* |
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bsiong
Supreme |
06-Apr-2011 08:47
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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April 5, 2011
GOLD & SILVER PRICES SOARING TO NEW RECORDS There is no shortage of uncertainty in today's markets and uncertainty causes investors to run to gold and silver. Gold settled at a record high and you can take your pick as to why. Perhaps it was new peaks in oil and grains revving up fears of inflation. Perhaps it was yet another downgrade of Portugal's credit rating. Axel Merk, portfolio manager of the $600 million Merk Mutual Fund said, What it shows is that big money continues to believe gold will go higher...because Bernanke wants to grow at any cost." Perhaps it is Ben Bernanke. It does appear that every time he gives a speech downplaying inflation, inflation fears go up. Bill Gross, the head of PIMCO, told CNBC that it is naive of Bernanke to think this inflation threat will just pass.The emerging and developing world is different these days. Theyre less wage-sensitive and theyre more commodity-sensitive, Gross said. In other words, citizens are demanding more for their money and theyre reflecting that in the form of higher commodity prices. To expect that to revert over the next several years is a little pollyannaish. Radioactive fish are now being discovered outside of the Japanese nuclear plant as the power company had been forced to dump radioactive water into the ocean.I fear we are far from finished with this story. At 4PM (CT) the APMEX precious metal prices were:
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bsiong
Supreme |
06-Apr-2011 01:07
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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 Gold, Silver Prices Pop Higher NEW YORK (Apr 5) Gold and silver prices were reversing earlier losses Tuesday as U.S. data disappointed. Gold for June delivery was up $17.90 to $1,450.90 an ounce at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The gold price has traded as high as $1,452, a record, and as low as $1,431 while the spot gold price was rising $14.70, according to Kitco's gold index. Silver prices were up 45 cents at $38.94 an ounce. Gold and silver were soaring after the U.S. reported that activity in the services sector slowed in March. The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing report fell to a reading of 57.3 from 59.7 in February. The dip was larger than expected. The U.S. dollar slipped slightly which gave gold and silver prices a bounce. Precious metals had been losing steam as China's central bank raised key interest rates by 25 basis points taking the deposit rate to 3.25%. With inflation at 4.9%, real interest rates are still at a negative 1.65%. Although momentum might be lackluster for now, as money is worth less in banks, precious metals will continue to make an attractive alternative. " You get a knee-jerk reaction," says Anthony Neglia of Tower Trading, " [silver] might trade down ... and then the fear of inflation ... is going to bring those buyers back into silver." Silver could be subject to this same kind of trading on Thursday when the European Central Bank is expected to raise rates. |
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bsiong
Supreme |
06-Apr-2011 00:37
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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x 0 Alert Admin |
WOW..... next gold tgt 1460.....   /* |
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bsiong
Supreme |
06-Apr-2011 00:28
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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MUMBAI (Commodity Online): Gold came off highs around $1440 yet again, mimicking moves similar to the overnight floor trades as the US dollar rushed higher after falling to five month lows against the Euro amid bearish moves in equities and a surge in safe haven demand on heightened nuclear concerns after Tokyo Electric Power Co. or TEPCO has, as an emergency measure, dumped low-level radioactive water from its unstable nuclear power plant at Fukushima into the Pacific Ocean. Equities dropped in Asia following this and DOW futures also came off their highs in early Asian trades, currently down by 31 points on the day. Meanwhile, inflationary worries in China prompted the country's central bank to raise its base lending and deposit rates by a quarter point on Tuesday, according to media reports. The one-year deposit rate will rise by a 0.25% to 3.25%, while the one-year lending rate will rise 0.25% to 6.31%, with both hikes to take effect from April 6. Dollar appreciated from 1.4232 yesterday to 1.4165 right now. In other economic news, the private-sector activity across the Euro zone saw slower growth in March, according to the final reading of the Markit purchasing managers index released today. The index dropped to 57.6, down from a four-and-a-half year high of 58.2 in February but above a preliminary reading of 57.5. A reading of more than 50 indicates growth in activity, while a reading of less than 50 signals a contraction. Euro zone retail sales also fell month-on-month in February and were almost flat in annual terms, aggravating the downward pressure on the single currency. The European Union's statistics office Eurostat said today that the retail sales in the 17 countries using the euro fell 0.1% month-on-month in February for a 0.1% gain in year-on-year terms. The market participants are eying the release of the last FOMC meeting minutes later on today and the dollar gains are likely to exacerbate from here on. Gold should find some support around $1427-1430 levels and a bounce from hereon would push up the metal yet again. The COMEX futures are currently quoting at $1433.30, up 30 cents on the day. /* |
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bsiong
Supreme |
06-Apr-2011 00:25
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Morning Gold & Silver Market Report 4/5/2011April 5, 2011APMEX CEO MICHAEL HAYNES ON CNBC What does a million dollars worth of gold look like? Please take a look at this informative interview where Mr. Haynes explains that Middle America is just now discovering that the standard three asset classes of stocks, bonds and cash do not provide the risk management necessary in todays environment of global economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, currency fluctuations, US dollar devaluation and inflation. At the American Precious Metals Exchange our customer are not traders, they are long term holders of precious metals. Gold can provide the protection your portfolio needs as an antidote to the sea of uncertainty we face in todays global economy. Speaking of uncertainty and inflation: China raised their interest rates once again as they continue their efforts to restrain inflation. This move did surprise after several analysts had predicted they would pause in their tightening. At 8AM (CT) the APMEX precious metal prices were:
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niuyear
Supreme |
05-Apr-2011 22:17
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This means that even US$ hits new high, GOLD and silver will hit high also. Reversal of the norm whereby US$ up, gold down. US$ is set to recover.
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bsiong
Supreme |
05-Apr-2011 19:33
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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It is not the end of gold rally: JP Morgan ChiefLast Updated : 05 April 2011 at 13:00 IST BEIJING (Commodity Online): J.P. Morgan China managing director Jin Ulrich, said to Reuters, that it is not the end of gold rally. Gold is seen as an alternative to paper currencies, he said. Increasing political uncertainties and rising prices would keep gold as a hedge. June delivery gold on the Comex in New York rose $4.10, or 0.3 per cent, to close at $1433. Yellow metal has jumped 27 per cent in the past year. Gold rally was termed a bubble when skeptics yelled at gold way back in time, when prices stood at $250 an ounce. This continued for a while and kept on amassing followers even as gold broke through $1,000, $1,200 and now $1,400 an ounce, according to Frank Holmes in IB Times. The director is also bullish on China, but cautious on investment risks brought forth by social tensions. In the proposed five year plan, the country plans to build 36 million units of houses for low-income communities. Additionally, it may spend $400 billion to develop its power grid and another $750 bn to build its high-speed rail network. The country would import coal and copper in large quantities and would also import corn and soybeans. The director pointed out that Chinese fundamentals remain strong. /* |
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bsiong
Supreme |
05-Apr-2011 19:11
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Last Updated : 05 April 2011 at 15:00 IST Jim Rogers: Dollar will be debased gold and silver to hit new highsDaily Bell: We've interviewed you before. Thanks for spending some time with us once again. Let's jump right in. What do you think of the Chinese economy these days? Jim Rogers: There is some overheating and inflation, which they are wisely trying to cool especially in urban, coastal real estate. They have huge reserves so will suffer less than others in any coming downturn. Daily Bell: Is price inflation more or less of a problem? Jim Rogers: More. At least they acknowledge inflation and are attacking it. Some countries still try denying there is inflation worldwide. The US is even pouring gasoline on these inflationary trends with more money printing instead of trying to extinguish the problem. Daily Bell: Is China headed for a setback as you suggested last time we spoke? Jim Rogers: Did I say a setback or a setback in real estate speculation? I think you will find it was the latter. Yes, the setback in urban, coastal real estate is under way. Daily Bell: They are allowing the yuan to float upward. Good move? Jim Rogers: Yes, but I would make it freely convertible faster than they are. Daily Bell: Will that squeeze price inflation? Jim Rogers: It will help. Daily Bell: Why so many empty cities and malls in China? Does the government have plans to move rural folk into cities en masse? Jim Rogers: That is a bit exaggerated. China has been overbuilding ever since I have been visiting. There is at least eventual demand for much of it, but that does not preclude some bankruptcies in the future. Daily Bell: Is such centralized planning good for the economy? Jim Rogers: No. Centralized planning is rarely, if ever, good for the economy. But the kind of construction you are describing is at the provincial level not the national level. Daily Bell: The Chinese government is worried about unrest given what is occurring in the Middle East. Should they be? Jim Rogers: We all should be. There is going to be more social unrest worldwide including the US. More governments will fall. More countries will fail. Daily Bell: Are they still on track to be the world's biggest economy over the next decade? Jim Rogers: Perhaps not that soon, but eventually. Daily Bell: Any thoughts on Japan? Why haven't they been able to get the economy moving after 30 years? Will the earthquake finally jump-start the economy or is that an erroneous application of the broken-windows fallacy? Jim Rogers: It has been 20 years. They refused to let people fail and go bankrupt. They constantly propped up zombie companies. The earthquake will help some sectors for a while, but there are serious demographic and debt problems down the road. Daily Bell: The Japanese were going to buy PIGS bonds. What will happen now? Does that only leave China? Jim Rogers: Obviously the Japanese have other things on their mind right now. I think we are getting closer and closer to the point where someone in Europe is going to have to take some losses, whether it's the banks or the countries, but somebody has to acknowledge that they are bankrupt. The thing that the world needs is for somebody to acknowledge reality and start taking haircuts. Daily Bell: Are you more optimistic or pessimistic about the EU these days? Last time you told us the world needed the euro a big market with breadth and depth. But you weren't sure it was going to last. Any new insights? Jim Rogers: I didn't say that the world needed the euro, I said it would be good for the world we need something to compete with the US dollar. On paper the euro would be a great competitor. However, as I have said before, it is a political currency rather than an economical currency, and I would suspect that this pushes the euro closer to a moment of truth. The Germans are now in control and they will be able to make everybody toe the line. The Germans expect to hold the euro together during this period of pain, and I hope they can. As I have said before, the world needs something to complete with the US dollar. I would expect the euro will survive this particular round of problems, and this will be good for the world and the euro in the long run. Daily Bell: Is Germany taking the proper hardline stance toward Greece and Ireland? Is austerity the only solution or should bank bondholders finally have to take the haircut you mentioned? Jim Rogers: Either way, if people start having to acknowledge their losses then that's going to lead to more austerity. And I don't think you are going to see people rushing in to invest or lend to the Greeks if they have just lost lots of money on their bonds or their bank stocks or whatever it happens to be. It will certainly cause problems. I don't think anyone will pull out of the euro this time around, but some might be thrown out. Merkel seems to think she can hold the euro together but that's going to require some stern German discipline and losses. If that is her plan the euro could emerge as a real competitor to the dollar and have a great future. I am a bit skeptical of that last statement, but I do own the euro still. Daily Bell: Any more thoughts on the American Tea Party, which just scored some political gains? As we recall you were critical. Any further insights for us on the American political situation? Jim Rogers: Well it appears that America does seem to understand, at least on paper, that there are staggering problems. We still haven't seen much action. I haven't seen anybody cut any spending in a serious way. We are still bankrupt and the situation is getting worse, not better. Now, usually when you have this kind of situation it usually leads to social unrest and more political backlash, I suspect it will this time too. Daily Bell: What about the wars America is prosecuting and its military stance generally? Affordable? Supportable? Jim Rogers: Well it is certainly not affordable. America has got troops in over 100 countries and it is just making enemies and not helping America's standing in the world. As for supportable of course not! How can anybody justify America now getting involved in Libya? I mean if America is going to support opposition to everybody in the world we don't like, America is soon going to be totally bankrupt, even more bankrupt. Why are we supporting the guy in Yemen and not the guy in Libya? I can see absolutely no intellectual, philosophical, or even political justification for what we are doing. Daily Bell: Can the US sustain the war in Afghanistan for another three years? Will it have success in Westernizing that country? Jim Rogers: No, look at the size of Afghanistan I don't think the guys in Washington have a clue how big it is. Sure, we can stay there for three years and spend huge amounts of money, human lives, and we are making our situation worse not better. So we can stay there, but it is only driving us further and further into problems. Daily Bell: Is Pakistan being destabilized as a result? Jim Rogers: It's been destabilized. We are making more and more enemies in Pakistan every day and this is giving more psychological support to the enemies. They have someone else to rail against, more reasons to rail against the US. Pakistan seems to be more and more unstable. They have nuclear weapons they have a lot of people who don't like the US, and they have a lot of people who don't like India. Pakistan is one of the ten largest countries in the world population wise, and it's in a very strategic area, I hope it's not going to happen I hope they're not going to destabilize further, but this is how big wars start. People aren't worried, and then all of a sudden, everybody's in over their head. Daily Bell: Some say the US is trying to surround China. Is there more military tension between the US and China these days? Is that a bad thing? Jim Rogers: I don't know there's more military tension between China and the US these days. The US is in Pakistan, but the Pakistanis have been allies of the Chinese for a long time. If Pakistan is becoming more destabilized, then they are not going to be an ally of the US against China I assure you. No one in Pakistan is going to say, let's support the US against China. Everybody knows the US is becoming weaker and weaker geo-politically and militarily. If Venezuela and Colombia went to war tomorrow, there's nothing the US could do. We're over-extended in every way. I think our real position is even weaker than it appears. We may be talking a good game, but China is developing on it's own, and since I don't see that they are doing anything that threatens the US militarily, I am perplexed with this question. Politicians may be railing more and more about China, but that's a verbal encirclement of China, not a military one. China is the richest country in the world now and we are the largest debtors in the world. That accounts for verbal attacks. Pressuring China militarily won't change the equation. Daily Bell: Where is gold headed? Silver? Jim Rogers: Everything I have told the world about gold and silver is going to continue to happen. Eventually gold will be a couple of thousand dollars an ounce, and probably much higher, as currencies become more debased, who knows how high. Silver will definitely reach new highs. As I have said, the US dollar is in serious trouble, and will be debased a great deal in the future, and eventually will be problematical itself. So gold and silver will be measured by the US dollar but I hope there will still be some sound currencies no matter what happens. Daily Bell: What are some of the best little known investments these days? Jim Rogers: I am still optimistic about the future of agriculture, but I don't know about how little known that forecast is at this point. Daily Bell: Do you still believe commodity price inflation generally is a big trend? Jim Rogers: I don't believe in " belief." I only like to invest in things that I think I know. People who fall in love with their investments or believe in them, usually have problems. I think commodity prices are going to continue to go much, much higher. In several years, we are going to continue to see shortages of things to develop and there continues to be very little investment in productive capacity of anything. Agriculture is continuing to turn into a disaster and I continue to encourage people to understand that those shortages are going to get worse, and that there is going to be more social unrest around the world, and that more governments are going to fall around the world. People don't go into the streets if the price of copper makes new highs but when the price of rice and wheat and sugar go through the roof, everybody knows it instantly at the same time and everybody is unhappy instantly, and at the same time. So that's where you have serious problems developing and shortages, and that's why agriculture is a great place to invest. There are plenty of ways to invest in agriculture. There are going to be shortages of food and this will continue. As I said before, my portfolio is in commodities and currencies on the long side. Daily Bell: What about oil? Give us your take on Peak Oil. Is it real? Does it exist? Jim Rogers: I don't know if there is Peak Oil or not. I do know that known reserves of oil are in decline. That is a very simple statement. Is there a staggering amount of oil out there in the world? We don't seem to know where it is, though we hope we find it soon and that it is accessible. The price of oil and all energy is also going much higher. Daily Bell: Any comment on water shortages? Is potable water the next big investment? Jim Rogers: I don't know if we discussed water last time but I have discussed it many times. There are huge shortages of water developing. We have wars developing east of the Red Sea over oil, and we are going to have wars west of the Red Sea over water. Northern India has a staggering water problem and so does northern China. Southwestern part of the US has big water problems. If you can find a way to invest in water, you are going to be extremely successful and rich. You shouldn't own water, though, because if you own water the politicians are going to snarl and sneer and say you are capitalizing on God's-given-right to water, you filthy capitalist. If you are lucky, they will hang you in the public square. If you are unlucky, it will be worse. But if you can transfer water or clean water or provide water, they will build a monument to you in the public square, and you will be extremely rich. Daily Bell: Will the IMF have success in replacing the dollar with the SDR, as it wishes to? How long will it take? Jim Rogers: I can see if something dramatic happened tomorrow or if people are desperate, but I don't see SDRs working at all. It's an unofficial creation of bureaucrats and those types of things rarely work. Currency unions have never worked in history, and this could be the potential problem with the euro, it's a currency union, so I don't see something as artificial as SDRs working on a temporary basis or in the short term. Daily Bell: What trends are you emphasizing in your public speaking these days? Jim Rogers: I'm speaking but I am not sure people are listening. They haven't been listening to the rise of China or the problems with the US dollar and more and more currency turmoil. People don't listen about how inflation and commodity prices are going to continue to skyrocket. The things I have been talking about for several years are right and they continue to be right. I talk about more and more social unrest and there is going to be more social unrest. Look what is happening in Libya, Tunisia and Egypt. I talk about these things, and they turn out to be right, but people do not want to accept them, so unfortunately you have opportunities from this but once everybody thinks the same way, there's no opportunities left. I still see what has been happening, will continue to happen. Eventually everybody will know how to spell commodities. Eventually everybody will know how to find China on a map or even the Pacific Ocean on a map, but in the meantime, that is still years away. Daily Bell: What do you think of these color revolutions taking place? We think that there is considerable interference by the West and especially America. Comments? Jim Rogers: Well, as I have said, there is going to be more social unrest and I have been saying this for several years now. You can call it a " color revolution" or whatever you want, but basically when the price of rice and sugar and wheat goes up, people get unhappy. People will put up with a lot of things but eventually they go into the streets and especially when they have had their expectations aroused. The people that revolt are the people that have been led to think that things are going to get better and then their expectations are not met, and that's when they go to the streets. So you are going to see more governments fall, more countries fall. Daily Bell: You told us last time that the West was not handling the economic crisis (which began in 2008) very well. Are you more or less optimistic now? Jim Rogers: The situation continues to be bleak, in the US especially. The politicians continue to dole out staggering amounts of money and the people who receive that money think they're better off. But the overall situation is worse. America's debt continues to skyrocket the money train continues at a high rate, leading to more inflation and higher prices, and to eventually to more currency turmoil and eventually higher interest rates. Somebody is going to have to take some losses, just as in Europe. The idea that the solution for too much debt and consumption is more debt and more consumption is ludicrous. It's embarrassing. Maybe the Europeans are starting to understand it and maybe they are going to do something about it, or be forced to do something about it, which is more likely. In Portugal they are saying, they are not going to cut spending, well eventually somebody is going to have to face reality. In China, they realize they have an inflation problem and they are trying to do something about it let's hope they do. They still have a blocked currency, which in my view, is part of the problem. But to their credit, they do continue to open the currency more and more, every month, every quarter, and they know they have to. There are serious problems developing in India with their central bank and numerous other countries. Thailand, Australia, Korea, South Korea are all victims of the US central bank and the UK central bank easy-money policies. Staggering amounts of money are flooding into these countries, and there is no way in their power that they can stop this inflation or the subsequent price inflation. The situation continues to get worse for them. Daily Bell: Bernanke and the Fed and other central banks have apparently issued into the world's economy something like US$20 to US$50 TRILLION in loans, pump-priming etc. What happens when the velocity of money increases and all that money starts to circulate? Jim Rogers: It's already happening prices are going higher. Now the blame game starts and the government will blame it on draught or crop failure or whatever. Politicians will do and say anything to avoid explaining that inflation is a monetary problem. Their reactions are always the same and it's always astonishing to me. As President Ford said, " there is no problem" and even if there is, it's not his problem. Well there are always people who are in denial then the problem gets worse not better. Daily Bell: Bernanke recently went on the record as saying he was 100 percent certain that he would know when and how to withdraw excess dollars from the world's economy so that it didn't cause price inflation. Do you believe him? Jim Rogers: Again, I don't believe in belief, and you can never be 100% sure of anything, but I will go on record as saying, I'm a 100% sure in saying Mr. Bernanke is wrong again. Daily Bell: Is the stress getting to Bernanke? Is he becoming unbalanced? Jim Rogers: I don't know that he was ever balanced in the first place. He's never been right about anything. If you go back to the people who have been doing research on Mr. Bernanke's projections and statements, they'll tell you he has never been right about anything. He's always been unbalanced, if you ask me. You might find a time or two when he was right about something, but generally he doesn't have a clue. Daily Bell: Is Bernanke actually trying to ruin the dollar so that the IMF can usher in a world currency? Jim Rogers: No, he's not that smart. The IMF is not that smart. They are not smart enough. That's a conspiracy theory that assumes these people could work together. No, he actually believes in what he is doing and he believes he's going to save us all. Daily Bell: We asked you this before. What will the world look like in 10 years? Jim Rogers: There will be many different governments and many different political parties and unfortunately more destruction from civil wars and outright wars. The world will still be in a state of turmoil and perhaps it will be much worse. I could be wrong but you should at least examine the possibility that I might be right. What I would encourage everybody to do is to figure out ways to protect themselves. Most people have insurance policies, like fire insurance, car insurance, health insurance and you hope you never have to use them. But I would hope that everybody takes out some kind of insurance policy for their money, in case I might be right and hope that I am dead wrong and then it's unused money. But if I am right, at least it's some protection. Daily Bell: Any new books or articles in the works? Jim Rogers: No, I have been interviewed periodically, probably too much. My agent would like me to do an autobiography, but I cannot imagine that the world wants an autobiography of Jim Rogers. I am resisting if nothing else. I am not that interested in doing this, so if I'm not interested I doubt anybody else would be either. Daily Bell: We'd be interested in such a biography! Any final thoughts? Jim Rogers: I have a new index, with CITIC, a huge Chinese company, in partnership with BBVA, a huge European bank. The three of us are in it together. It's called, RGREI, Rogers Global Resources Equity Index. It offers diversity of choice for the people wanting to invest in natural resources. Daily Bell: We'll be sure to check into it. On behalf of all of our readers we thank you for sharing your views with us and for your important work and great books. Jim Rogers: Thank you. /* |
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05-Apr-2011 19:01
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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(Reuters) - Gold prices eased a touch to a session low at $1,431.35 an ounce on Tuesday after China's central bank said it had raised its lending and deposit rates by 25 basis points, their second increase this year. /*/* |
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