November 4, 2011
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bsiong
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07-Nov-2011 15:34
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LONDON (Commodity Online): If real U.S. interest rates remain low, Gold eventually may top $2,000 an ounce, says Deutsche Bank. The bank looks for gold to be the most resilient of the precious metals for the time being, since others with heavier industrial uses are held back when global economic growth is under pressure. “We view tail-event protection such as a break-up of the euro zone as sustaining private-sector demand for gold. Interestingly, despite the strong rise in gold prices this year, gold price gains have under-performed relative to the level of U.S. real interest rates.” the bank says. Deutsche Bank’s analysis shows that since 1970, whenever U.S. real interest rates have fallen below minus 3%, Goldprices have typically risen by an average of 40% year on year. “On this basis, if real rates remain at current depressed levels, it would imply a move above USD2,000/oz is only a matter of time,” Deutsche Bank concludes. |
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bsiong
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05-Nov-2011 12:05
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Closing Gold & Silver Market Report – 11/4/2011November 4, 2011GOLD OUTPERFORMS OTHER METALS, IS INSURANCE AGAINST EUROPEAN ‘TIME BOMB’ Precious metals have been fairly flat today as the news stays the same in Europe and the U.S. Metals gained slightly after the European Central Bank announced it was cutting its rates by a quarter-point. This makes the U.S. dollar stronger, which traditionally supports gold prices. U.S. stocks closed lower today as there was little comfort from the Group of 20 meeting. Investors are still concerned about Greece. Despite the volatility of gold since September, it has still outperformed the other precious metals in the long run, according to financial managers. Poh Huay Imm of Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management, explains, “The spot price has almost tripled in the last five years. Also, the performance of gold since the end of June and the beginning of September this year marked the strongest quarterly gain in spot prices since the early 1980s.” Many wealth management experts noted they would recommend anywhere from 5%- 10% of an investment portfolio in gold. Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Bank Julius Baer, says, “Gold is a good insurance against the “time bomb” in Europe and further debasing of currencies by central banks globally.” Dominic Schnider of UBS Wealth Management adds that gold is for the long term, as “gold is more than a commodity it is a currency.”
At 3:53 p.m. (CT), the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:
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bsiong
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05-Nov-2011 01:14
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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bsiong
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05-Nov-2011 01:12
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 11/4/2011UNEMPLOYMENT TICKS DOWN ITALY TO FOLLOW GREECE After a night of mixed trading, precious metals have dipped after the release of the jobs report. Economists expected an increase of 90,000 jobs, but the numbers missed that point by 10,000. The good news from the report was that the unemployment rate fell to 9.0% from 9.1%. Gold is still near six-week highs, and UBS strategist Edel Tully explains that recent purchases of gold by central banks should be encouraging to investors. Tully wrote, “As gold continues to take its cues from the euro and risk assets, consistent official purchases offers some comfort to investors, as they help provide the yellow metal with underlying support.” There has been some faith restored in the euro zone after Greece nixed the referendum vote on their bailout package, but Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou is still feeling the heat. Papandreou faces a confidence vote today, which could set the tone for further delays in the bailout process. Former hedge fund manager George Soros said, “There’s a real danger of a disorderly default.” When the attention of the financial markets is able to take its eyes off Greece, Commerzbank Chief Financial Officer Eric Strutz says Italy is next. He said, “The whole stability of Europe depends on whether Italy gets its act together.” Italy was forced to accept International Monetary Fund oversight of implementation of austerity measures at the Group of 20 meeting this week. Italy is second only to Greece on the list of highest debt-to-gross domestic product ratio. At 8:01 a.m. (CT), the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:
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bsiong
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05-Nov-2011 01:11
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Nov 4 (Reuters) - Gold fell on Friday after data showed the U.S. economy generated fewer than expected jobs last month but enough to send unemployment to its lowest in six months, which boosted the dollar and other risk-linked assets.
Spot gold fell 0.3 percent to $1,758.34 an ounce by 1337 GMT, but was set for a gain of 1 percent this week. The U.S. Labor Department said 80,000 workers were added to non-farm payrolls in October, below forecasts for a rise of 95,000, but the U.S. monthly employment report also showed the jobless rate fell to 9.0 percent from 9.1 percent, its lowest in six months. " Gold would benefit from the idea of a euro zone break-up. We don't think this is going to happen, but it's certainly not a zero-probability event," said Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Lewis. " The risk for us is we start to see more euro weakness over the next few months, that is probably our main concern," he said. U.S. stocks opened down, Treasury prices edged higher and the dollar rose nearly half a percent against a basket of currencies on the back of the uncertain outcome of Greece's sovereign debt crisis. Gold's inverse relation to the dollar makes it more profitable for non-U.S. holders of the metal to sell it. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou faces a knife-edge confidence vote later on Friday, with the fate of the nation's bailout in the balance. Meanwhile, Italy agreed to allow the International Monetary Fund and the European Union to monitor its progress in achieving structural reform as yields on Italian debt stayed near levels believed to be unsustainable for Rome's existing finances. The European Central Bank delivered a surprise rate cut on Thursday citing slowing growth and raised the chances of the euro zone entering a mild recession towards the end of the year. RATES HELP With the prospect of rates in the euro zone set to ease further, gold should gain more competitive advantage over assets that bear yields or dividends which can suffer in an environment of loose monetary policy. Real interest rates, those which strip out the headline rate of consumer inflation, are in negative territory in more than half of the Group of 20 richest nations, Reuters data shows. " There are still more rate cuts to come and the interest rate environment looks pretty constructive towards gold and risk aversion and equity risk premia, which are rising rapidly, continue to be constructive," said Deutsche's Lewis. " So on the margins, we hold the view that gold would benefit from tail-event protection," Lewis said, referring to events that are considered to be unlikely, such as the breakup of the euro zone, but that nonetheless should they come to pass, would favour an asset such as gold. According to the U.S. options market, traders are increasing their bets on the price of gold moving lower in the near term, as evidenced by a rise in holdings of put options. Open interest in put options at $1,550 has more than doubled to over 13,000 lots, accounting for more than 13 million ounces of gold, in the last six weeks. However, the bullish bets put on in September that the gold price would have hit $2,000 or more by Nov. 22, the date of the upcoming options expiry, have only been modestly scaled back and most open interest in call options is centred at $2,000, according to data from exchange owner CME Group. Adding to the firmer tone of the gold market was more evidence of central bank purchases of the metal. Data from the IMF this week showed Thailand, Russia and Bolivia bought gold in September. Thailand bought over 15 tonnes, making it the third largest official purchaser of bullion this year. The price of gold hit a record $1,920.30 an ounce in September before subsiding to current levels. " Gold's price correction in late September probably encouraged more buying, but we do not think price is a very significant factor for central banks who decide to increase their gold holdings - after all, they were also willing takers even when prices were near all-time highs in August," said UBS strategist Edel Tully in a note. " As gold continues to take its cues from the euro and risk assets, consistent official purchases offers some comfort to investors, as they help provide the yellow metal with underlying support," she said. Silver was down 0.5 percent on the day, trading around $34.27 an ounce, platinum was off 0.4 percent to $1,627.74 an ounce and palladium flat on the day at $652.97. (Reporting by Amanda Cooper Editing by Jason Neely) |
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bsiong
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05-Nov-2011 01:09
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Nov 4 (Reuters) - Gold cut losses on Friday, moving counter to the dollar, which fell after U.S. jobs data showed employment rose less than expected in October.
The non-farm payrolls figure was 80,000 jobs last month, lower than a consensus forecast of 95,000. Spot gold was at $1,754.60 an ounce at 1241 GMT, down 0.4 percent on the day, but up about $2 from levels seen before the report was released. (Reporting by Maytaal Angel editing by Jason Neely) |
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bsiong
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05-Nov-2011 01:07
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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* Gold faces resistance zone of $1,762-$1,773 * Coming Up: U.S non-farm payrolls Oct 1230 GMT By Lewa Pardomuan SINGAPORE, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Gold ticked lower on Friday after rising more than 1 percent in the previous session, but prices held near their highest in six weeks due to the uncertainty surrounding the euro zone debt crisis and the prospect of a Greek exit from the euro. Greece's abrupt call for a referendum, just days after a deal was struck to save the debt-stricken country from defaulting, ignited panic in global financial markets. But intense European pressure has forced Greece to seek political consensus on a new bailout plan instead of holding a referendum after EU leaders raised the prospect of a Greek exit from the euro to preserve the single currency. Gold fell $4.26 an ounce to $1,758.39 an ounce by 0753 GMT, but headed for its second week of gains. Gold jumped to as high as $1,767.40 on Thursday, its strongest since Sept. 22 -- still below a record around $1,920 hit in September. " It's not all plain sailing in the Aegean," said Nicholas Trevethan, a senior metals strategist at ANZ Bank in Singapore. " Direction will depend on the no-confidence vote in Athens. If Papandreou keeps his mandate, that may well trigger another round of buying, not only in gold but in other commodities as well." Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou bowed to cabinet rebels and agreed to step down and make way for a negotiated coalition government if his Socialists back him in a confidence vote on Friday, government sources told Reuters. In the physical market, jewellers were on the sidelines as prices stayed near Thursday's highs, but speculators could be tempted to cash on gold's recent gains. Some dealers expected to see the arrival of scrap from Indonesia ahead of a religious holiday on Monday. " Buying interest has died but we expect some scraps to come out," said a dealer in Singapore. " I guess prices are still attractive to sell such as for the Indonesians." U.S. gold GCcv1 was down 0.28 percent at $1,760.20 an ounce. " Whether Greece will break free from the euro zone, we don't know. I think gold is really supported by the euro zone (crisis)," said Ronald Leung, director of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong. " I think sentiment is more or less still bullish because of the Greek problem and the banking sector is also not good. People are still packing their money into safe-haven assets," said Leung, who pegged resistance at $1,800. Gold jumped to a record in September on worries the debt crisis in Europe would spread, although gains had been trimmed by recent a sell-off in equities, which forced investors to cash in on bullion to cover losses. The Nikkei rose nearly 2 percent on Friday, as Greece appeared ready to abandon a proposed referendum that threatened a plan to contain Europe's debt crisis, but the benchmark still logged a weekly loss in a week plagued by concerns about Europe. Investors also turned their attention to the U.S. non-farm payrolls data later in the day, which could offer clues as to the whether the U.S. Federal Reserve might launch more stimulus measures to boost a sagging economy. Economists expect the U.S. Labor Department to report an October nonfarm payrolls gain of 95,000, according to a Reuters poll. The euro slipped to $1.3798 from late U.S. levels, after having topped out at $1.3855 on Thursday, near its 55-day moving average and a 38.2 percent retracement of its steep fall from its Oct. 27 peak around $1.4250. In the energy market, Brent crude held steady above $110 on Friday, after rising more than a $1 in the previous session as Greece backed away from a referendum and a rate cut by the European Central Bank raised hopes for an easing of the region's debt crisis. |
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bsiong
Supreme |
05-Nov-2011 01:05
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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SINGAPORE, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Gold ticked lower on Friday after rising more than 1 percent in the previous session, holding near its highest in six weeks due to the uncertainty surrounding the euro zone debt crisis and the prospect of a Greek exit from the euro. FUNDAMENTALS * Spot gold fell $6.21 an ounce to $1,756.44 an ounce by 0014 GMT, but headed for its second week of gains. Gold jumped to as high as $1,767.40 on Thursday, its strongest since Sept. 22 -- still below a record around $1,920 hit in September. * U.S. gold GCcv1 edged down 0.39 percent to $1,758.5 an ounce. * Intense European pressure forced debt-stricken Greece to seek political consensus on a new bailout plan instead of holding a referendum after EU leaders raised the prospect of a Greek exit from the euro to preserve the single currency. * The Group of 20 is considering injecting billions of dollars into the world economy through the International Monetary Fund to increase global liquidity, G20 sources said on Thursday. MARKET NEWS * The Nikkei share average rose more than 1 percent in early trade on Friday, catching up with U.S. gains after a Japanese holiday, on optimism that Greece will abandon a proposed referendum that threatened to undermine a plan to contain Europe's debt crisis. * The euro gained against the dollar and yen in volatile trade on Thursday as optimism that Greece will forego plans to hold a referendum on its bailout package trumped a surprising interest rate cut by the European Central Bank. |
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bsiong
Supreme |
04-Nov-2011 08:06
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Closing Gold & Silver Market Report – 11/3/2011 November 3, 2011
Could Gold Be in for a Record Rally? A story in Bloomberg by Debarati Roy, indicates that gold could be headed to record prices by March, according to those with the most accurate record of forecasting gold prices. These forecasts are driven by a stagnating global economy and a long drawn out European debt crisis. Futures contracts may rise by 12% to $1950 per oz by the end of the first quarter using median estimates compiled by Bloomberg. These forecasts come from 8 of the top 10 analysts tracked by Bloomberg over the past eight quarters. “There is a loss of trust in the entire financial system and urgent need for safe-haven investment,” said Ronald Stoeferle at Erste Group Bank AG in Vienna, the second most- accurate forecaster in the past three months. “The environment for gold is just perfect.” If you are frustrated trying to determine whether Greece is going to accept a bailout or not, you are not alone. The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), the euro zone’s temporary rescue fund, is clearly frustrated as well. The EFSF was set to issue a $4.1 billion dollars offering, but will now wait until at least next week. A fund spokesman said there is just too much volatility and uncertainty surrounding Greece. There needs to be some conclusion as to whether there will be a bailout or not. At 4PM (CT) the APMEX precious metals prices were:
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bsiong
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04-Nov-2011 08:04
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Gold rises 1.5 percent on ECB rate cut, Greece fears(Reuters) - Gold rose 1.5 percent on Thursday, boosted by a surprise interest rate cut by the European Central Bank and safe-haven buying as Greece's teetering government added uncertainty to the future of the European Union. Bullion is on track for its biggest gain in ten days, after data showed that U.S. service-sector growth slowed in October. Also supporting gold was financial uncertainty related to the demise of the now-defunct U.S.futures brokerage MF Global Holdings. Even though gold has recently moved in sync with riskier assets, the metal -- a traditional safe haven -- rose as Greece's government backed away from a proposed referendum on staying in the euro and, as European leaders talked for the first time of a possible Greek exit to preserve the single currency. " It feels like we are back to square one with questions about Greecebacking out of the rescue plan and its possible ejection from the EU. Expect the safe-haven angle to keep the entire precious group trading higher," said Miguel Perez-Santalla, vice president of Heraeus Precious Metals Management. Spot gold was up 1.5 percent to $1,763.69 by 12:42 p.m. EDT (1642 GMT), set for its third consecutive day of gains. U.S. gold for December futures was up $35.80 at $1,765.40. COMEX gold options floor trader Jonathan Jossen said there were heavy trading of bullish option strategies, including out-of-the money calls and bull call spreads, with $2,000 being a popular strike price and most of them expiring in December. Gold held gains after the ECB cut interest rates by a quarter point to 1.25 percent in a surprise move on Thursday and President Mario Draghi said the euro zone could subside into a " mild recession" in the latter part of 2011. But the rate cut effect was likely to be short lived, Ole Hansen, senior manager at Saxo Bank, said, " because it's happened on the back of an increasingly murky situation in Europe where we are receiving Greek news every five minutes." " Gold has started to revert back into its role as a safe-haven play and this (rate cut) is not changing that," Hansen said. " Also it's indicating that we're going to see lower rates for longer in the future and that is obviously the main supporting factor for gold." Bullion extended gains as the U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said service-sector activity growth in October slowed to its weakest in three months. SAFE HAVEN OR LIQUIDITY? Gold has been rangebound in the past week or so, with the threat of a potentially disastrous Greek default burnishing gold's safe-haven appeal while fears of a liquidity crunch in case of a default have kept gains in check. " Our fear is that weakness in equities can and perhaps may ignite selling in gold as margin calls once again return to the fore. Should equities continue to falter, gold shall follow," said independent investor Dennis Gartman. U.S. stocks rose 1 percent as the Greek vote over a euro-zone bailout was put into question, with sentiment also lifted by the ECB rate cut. .N Asian physical buying has slowed due to high prices and the euro zone uncertainty. Gold traders in India, the world's biggest consumer of bullion, slowed purchases after the peak festivals of Dhanteras and Diwali last week, though wedding season demand may pick up in coming weeks. Spot silver rose 0.8 percent at $34.48. Platinum climbed 2.6 percent to $1,637.99, and palladium gained 1.8 percent to $658.47. (Additional reporting by Amanda Cooper in London and Rujun Shen in Singapore editing by Marguerita Choy) |
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bsiong
Supreme |
03-Nov-2011 22:47
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Gold targets $2350 as Wave 5 begins, $1680 criticalBy David Banister That pullback to $1531 qualifies as a Fibonacci retracement of the 34 month rally from $681 to $1920, and would also qualify for a price low for a 4th major wave correction. My initial targets for the Gold pullback were $1480-$1520 if the $1650 area was violated. Most recently we have seen Gold run up to 1681 which is another Fibonacci resistance zone a few times and then back off to the low $1600’s. With the recent push over $1681, we can now confirm the 4th wave is over at $1531 lows and that the 5th wave is likely in the very early stages, but beginning to build steam. I will say that we want to make sure the $1650-$1680’s areas are defended by Gold on any pullbacks in order for this forecast to remain valid. During this 5th wave up, eventually we should see the $2380 ranges in Gold, but it will not take place overnight. In the next few months I am looking for Gold to attack the $1900 range, possibly even by year end, and then in 2012 attacking the $2000 plus ranges. With all of the Macro events in Europe changing on an almost daily basis, the whipsaws in both the precious metals and equities markets are difficult to forecast and trade for most investors. Gold has about three years left in a 13 year bull cycle if I’m right. Below is the updated weekly chart of Gold. You can see prior lows as they related to oversold indicators, and where we just came off the 1531 lows and its Fibonacci pivot along with the oversold indicators below. |
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bsiong
Supreme |
03-Nov-2011 22:39
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 11/3/2011 November 3, 2011
The Greek Government Could Be Heading for Collapse – Precious metals prices are moving upward as stocks are set to open flat. The European debt crisis took a strange turn several days ago when Greece said it had to think about accepting 50% forgiveness on its debt and an additional $130 billion euro loan. Now, it has turned even stranger, after defections from the ruling party have left Prime Minister Papandreou without a majority. There is the beginning of a groundswell to force Papandreou’s resignation. The latest Greek development is fueled by tensions between the prime minister and the finance minister. Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos is gaining support in opposing a referendum on whether to accept the bailout offered by the European Union. The opposition party believes that Greece must stay within the European Union. The finance minister has always favored austerity measures, but 60% of the Greek population views the deal as negative. This could lead to the total collapse of the government. Stay tuned as events might unfold quickly. In a surprise move, the European Central Bank just announced it is reducing its main interest rate to 1.25%, as its concerns about the debt crisis have trumped its concerns about inflation. Markets will now be looking to new bank President Mario Draghi for any hints that further interest rate cuts might be in the future. Gold and Silver prices jumped up a notch on the news. At 8AM (CT) the APMEX precious metals prices were:
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bsiong
Supreme |
03-Nov-2011 22:38
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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* ECB cuts rates by a quarter point * Euro rises vs dollar (Updates prices, comment after ECB decisions) By Susan Thomas LONDON, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Gold rose on Thursday in volatile markets that were lifted by a surprise interest rate cut by the European Central Bank, but a worsening euro zone debt crisis kept gains in check. Gold has been rangebound in the past week or so, with the threat of a potentially disastrous Greek default burnishing gold's safe-haven appeal while fears of a liquidity crunch in case of a default have kept gains in check. A surprise interest rate cut from the ECB boosted gold, stocks and the euro. But the rate cut effect was likely to be short lived, Ole Hansen, senior manager at Saxo Bank, said, " because it's happened on the back of an increasingly murky situation in Europe where we are receiving Greek news every five minutes" . Speculation that Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou would resign is widespread, a move that would mean a new government and a reversal of plans for a plebiscite that could lead to a disorderly default by Greece on its bonds. The threat of a Greek default and exit from the euro hung over a meeting of G20 leaders after France and Germany made it clear that Athens must decide urgently whether it wants to stay in the 12-year-old currency bloc. Spot gold was up 1.2 percent at $1,758.7 at 1326 GMT, off an intraday high of $1,763.90, from $1,737.70 late on Wednesday. U.S. gold GCcv1 was up 1.8 percent at $1,760.20. " Gold has started to revert back into its role as a safe-haven play and this (rate cut) is not changing that," Hansen said. " Also it's indicating that we're going to see lower rates for longer in the future and that is obviously the main supporting factor for gold." Gold in euros rose to an intra-day high of 1,281.16 euros. " I think in the way gold has been behaving over the past couple of weeks it seems that people prefer to buy euro/gold which makes sense because of all the problems there," Standard Bank analyst Walter de Wet said.
BUYERS SCARCE Asian physical buying has slowed due to high prices and the euro zone uncertainty. Gold traders in India, the world's biggest consumer of bullion, slowed purchases after the peak festivals of Dhanteras and Diwali last week, though wedding season demand may pick up in coming weeks. " The price volatility noted during the actual festival, last week, kept demand at the consumer level under pressure," RBS said in a note. " Local sales of 22-carat jewellery were sluggish and buyers were seen purchasing lighter pieces than historically."
Spot silver was 1.2 percent higher at $34.68. Holdings of the iShares Silver Trust , the world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, edged down 4.07 tonnes from a day earlier to 9,776.14 tonnes by Nov. 2. Platinum was up 2.5 percent at $1,635.99 from $1,596.25 and paladium was up 3.1 percent at $667 from $646.88. (Additonal reporting by Amanda Cooper and Rujun Shen Editing by William Hardy) |
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bsiong
Supreme |
03-Nov-2011 22:36
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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* Euro steadies, but vulnerable to falls * Spot silver falls nearly 3 pct * Coming Up: ECB rate decision By Susan Thomas LONDON, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Gold fell on Thursday, under pressure from a vulnerable euro and turmoil hitting financial markets on the possibility of Greece exiting the euro zone. Gold has been rangebound in the past week or so, with the threat of a potentially disastrous Greek default burnishing gold's safe-haven appeal while fears of a liquidity crunch in case of a default have kept gains in check. " The feeling we get from the market is that people prefer not to take large positions at the moment because of the uncertainty, and it's similar in all the markets too," Standard Bank analyst Walter de Wet said. France and Germany, angered at Greece's shock move to call for a referendum on its latest bailout plan, told Prime Minister George Papandreou on Wednesday that Athens would not receive EU aid until it decides whether it wants to stay in the euro zone. Chaos over Greece's role in the euro zone battered equity markets and hit the euro, swamping any residual support from the U.S. Federal Reserve's soothing comments less than 24 hours earlier. Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,733.5 at 1019 GMT, off an intraday high of $1,739.49, from $1,737.70 on Wednesday. U.S. gold GCcv1 was up 0.3 percent at $1,735.50. " The strong demand that we've seen, with gold at $1,650 up until last week, is not there any more," De Wet said. " I think in the way gold has been behaving over the past couple of weeks it seems that people prefer to buy euro/gold which makes sense because of all the problems there." Gold in euros was trading at around a one-month high of $1,257. The prospect of a hard Greek default and euro exit hung over a meeting of G20 leaders beginning in Cannes on Thursday. Eyes are also on the European Central Bank, which will meet on Thursday and is expected to hold interest rates steady. " In light of today's ECB and G20 meetings, uncertainty looks set to remain elevated. In this context, we think gold is best positioned as it is likely to attract further safe haven inflows," Credit Suisse said in a note. " Prices could test the $1,750 mark in the coming days." Reuters market analyst Wang Tao said spot gold could drop to $1,705 an ounce during the day. The euro steading after earlier falls, but remained vulernable to further losses against the dollar. BUYERS SCARCE Asian physical buying has slowed due to high prices and the euro zone uncertainty. Gold traders in India, the world's biggest consumer of bullion, slowed purchases after the peak festivals of Dhanteras and Diwali last week, though wedding season demand may pick up in coming weeks. Premiums in Hong Kong and Singapore were steady in the range of $1 to $1.50 an ounce over spot prices, little changed from a week earlier.
Spot silver dropped almost 3 percent to $33.25, before regaining some lost ground to trade at $33.88. " With the uncertainty on QE3, and lack of physical demand from industrial users, silver is going neither here not there," said a Shanghai-based trader. Holdings of the iShares Silver Trust , the world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, edged down 4.07 tonnes from a day earlier to 9,776.14 tonnes by Nov. 2. Platinum was $1,596.24 from $1,596.25 and paladium was $650.97 from $646.88. (Additonal reporting by Amanda Cooper and Rujun Shen Editing by Alison Birrane) |
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bsiong
Supreme |
03-Nov-2011 22:34
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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* Gold likely rangebound, Europe eyed * Spot silver falls nearly 3 pct * Spot gold could fall to $1,705 -technicals * Coming Up: ECB rate decision By Rujun Shen SINGAPORE, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Spot gold inched lower on Thursday, tracking the downbeat sentiment in riskier assets as investors remained worried about the euro zone's debt crisis ahead of a Group of 20 summit. Gold has been rangebound in the past week or so, with the threat of a potentially disastrous Greek default burnishing gold's safe-haven appeal while fears of a liquidity crunch in case of a default have kept gains in check. France and Germany, angered at Greece's shock move to call for a referendum on its latest bailout plan, told Prime Minister George Papandreou on Wednesday that Athens would not receive EU aid until it decides whether it wants to stay in the euro zone. A Group of 20 summit is to take place on Thursday and Friday, with Europe's debt crisis expected to dominate the talks. " There are too many things to watch out for," said Ronald Leung, a physical dealer at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong. " People are waiting for more news on euro zone and how the economy fares." Gold may remain in a range between $1,700 and $1,750 in absence of news that could point to a clear direction, traders said. Spot gold lost 0.6 percent to $1,727.29 an ounce by 0738 GMT, snapping two consecutive sessions of gains. U.S. gold GCcv1 was flat at $1,728.50. Spot gold could drop to $1,705 an ounce during the day, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao. Asia's physical gold buying slowed as high prices and uncertainty around the euro zone's debt crisis pushed market participants to the sidelines. Asian shares, the euro and commodities fell on Thursday as fears that Europe's debt crisis could unleash financial chaos prompted investors to shed riskier assets in favour of the relative safety of the dollar, ahead of a rate decision by the European Central Bank and the G20 summit. The ECB was expected to hold interest rates steady, after the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it was mulling the possibility of buying more mortgage debt to spur a struggling recovery but offered no new stimulus, to the disappointment of some gold investors. The previous two rounds of quantitative easing by the Fed, dubbed as QE1 and QE2, helped propel gold on its record-setting rally from 2009. Spot silver dropped as much as 2.8 percent to $33.25, before regaining some lost ground to trade at $33.41. " With the uncertainty on QE3, and lack of physical demand from industrial users, silver is going neither here not there," said a Shanghai-based trader. Holdings of the iShares Silver Trust , the world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, edged down 4.07 tonnes from a day earlier to 9,776.14 tonnes by Nov. 2. |
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bsiong
Supreme |
03-Nov-2011 08:44
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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November 2, 2011
TO LEAVE OR NOT TO LEAVE, THAT IS THE QUESTION Precious metals continue to rise as the dollar fades, making it more affordable for investors to buy gold. Even though the Federal Reserve came out with positive comments on the U.S. economy, it did not deflect investors’ attention from the fact that the growth outlook for 2012 was cut and jobless claims were predicted to be at 8.6%. It looks as though this news is what drove investors to precious metals as a safe haven against the many different “what ifs” circulating in the world now. As usual, when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks, the markets move, and gold started moving forward. Now, rates are at zero, and the inflation rate in the U.S. is at 3.9%. This puts real interest rates at a negative 3.9%, making the return on a dollar at 96.1% instead of 100%. Ross Norman, CEO of SharpsPixley, said, “U.S. news has been sidelined, and the focus has been on Europe,” but he still believes the U.S. dollar is a strong contender. “There seems to be a ping-pong in terms of what is moving gold. …Normally [the Fed would] be a big mover, but investors are still really focused on Greece and the euro.” Observers are in a wait-and-see mode as to whether Greece will be staying with the euro or go back to their drachma. Vasilis Serafeimakis, senior executive at Avinoil, one of the largest oil and gas distribution companies in Greece, has pushed for the drachma, saying, “If we had our own currency, we could at least print money. And what is the worst thing that happens if we do this? I don’t get a Christmas gift from one of my bankers.” At 4 p.m. (CT), the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:
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bsiong
Supreme |
03-Nov-2011 08:42
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Gold rises on deepening euro zone crisis
* Euro bounces but vulnerable to Greek events * Coming up: Federal Reserve statement 1630 GMT (Updates prices) By Susan Thomas LONDON, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Gold rose on Wednesday on demand for the metal as a safe haven investment away from market turmoil as the euro zone troubles deepened and business surveys showed the severe impact the crisis has had on manufacturing in the region. The dollar is also under pressure ahead of the outcome of a Federal Reserve policy meeting later in the session. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for non U.S. buyers. Greece's Prime Minister George Papandreou shocked markets on Tuesday with a call for a referendum on a European Union 130 billion euro bailout package. He faces a grilling on Wednesday from the leaders of Germany and France. Adding to the gloom, business surveys showed the downturn in euro zone manufacturing in October was even deeper than previously reported. " There is more of a risk aversion type dynamic developing because of all the complications around Europe and with the Greek referendum on the cards," Standard Chartered head of metals research Dan Smith said. " All these things will bring some doubts about the political and macro outlook." But in positive news, U.S. private employers added more jobs than expected in October, and more were added in September than originally reported, while a separate report showed planned layoffs dropped sharply last month. U.S. gold GCcv1 rose 1.9 percent to $1,744.3 an ounce at 1457 GMT. Spot gold rose 1.4 percent to $1,742.9 at 1413 GMT, from $1,718.95 on Tuesday. The euro gained against the dollar on Wednesday after three days of losses, as investors took a breather from selling the single currency to square up positions and focus on the possible outcome of a Federal Reserve policy meeting. U.S. Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke will hold a news conference later in the day at the end of a two-day policy meeting. The Fed looks set to take a breather from monetary stimulus measures, even if financial market turbulence heightens the chances of action later. " Over the next few days, we think gold prices are likely to remain more resilient as the market should benefit from safe haven demand and its reasonable evaluation," Barclays Capital said in a note. Gold has risen by more than 20 percent so far this year and is heading for its 11th year of gains as investors seek an alternative to the dollar and protection against rising inflation expectations. G20 PRESSURE Investors will also closely watch the rate decision by the European Central Bank due on Thursday, just as a Group of 20 summit is to take place and likely to pressure Europe on the debt crisis solution. Investor interest in gold continued to pick up this week, reflected in inflows of metal into exchange-traded funds. Holdings of gold in the major exchange-traded funds (ETF) tracked by Reuters have risen by over 800,000 ounces this month, marking their first monthly increase since July. In ETF flows on Wednesday, gold holdings were up by just over 11,000 ounces after an inflow into the COMEX Gold Trust. Last month, global holdings of gold in ETFs rose by 852,000 ounces to 67.907 million ounces, more than offsetting the 444,000 ounces outflow in September and the 297,000 ounces outflow in August. " They have been trending up for the last week or so. Investors are coming back in to those two (gold and silver) because of the weaker macro environment," Smith said. " It's also a good time of the year for physical demand for gold as well as we head into the end of the year because of the Indian wedding season." The bulk of the inflows were into European-based funds, rather than their larger U.S. counterparts, which analysts have said is reflective of the anxiety among investors in the region over the impact of the euro zone debt crisis on monetary policy, inflation and growth. Silver rose more than 3 percent to $34.24 an ounce from $33.27 previously. Platinum rose 1.6 percent to $1,607.49 an ounce from $1,582.65, and palladium was $647.47 from $631.50. (Additional reporting by Amanda Cooper) * Euro factories decline deepens in Oct |
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bsiong
Supreme |
03-Nov-2011 00:10
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Gold - Recovery and Resurrection LINK Gold is coming to life again - and looks poised to move higher in the weeks and months ahead. Having fallen precipitously from its all-time high just over $1,923 an ounce in early September to a recent low near $1,540 in early October, a peak-to-trough correction of some 20 percent, gold has been, of late, range-bound, trading between $1,640 and $1,680. Having moved to the top of this range and even slightly higher, I sense gold is just now resuming its long march upward, a march that could, before long, carry the price to the $1,850 region and perhaps even to its historic peak of $1,923 by the end of the year. The Safe-Haven ParadoxIronically, Europe’s continuing sovereign debt crisis - a situation that should promote fear-driven demand for gold - has, in recent weeks, weighed heavily on the yellow metal’s price. In addition, a sharp reversal in speculative positions on futures exchanges and other derivative markets has contributed to gold’s two-month consolidation. Ordinarily, investors and analysts might expect Europe’s impending economic and political disaster to send gold prices rocketing skyward - but this has not yet been the case. Instead, it triggered “safe haven” demand for the U.S. dollar and boosted the greenback’s exchange rate against the euro to gold’s detriment. With flight capital and hot money going into the U.S. dollar as a safe haven from Europe’s woes, dollar-denominated hard assets like gold and other commodities have been under pressure, in large measure due to the behavior of institutional traders and speculators, many of whom have reduced their “long” positions or “shorted” gold in derivative “paper” markets. Gold’s Fortunes Set to ImproveI have no doubts that the recent downward pressure on the gold price arising from the U.S. dollar’s “apparent” strength - and I stress “apparent” - will prove to be temporary. Indeed, in recent days, with demand suddenly surging for investment-size bars and gold exchange-traded funds, it looks like safe-haven gold demand may finally be picking up even as the flow of funds into the dollar continues. ” In any event, gold’s fortunes are set to improve in the weeks ahead: If Europe’s debt crisis subsides, the dollar will no longer benefit from its safe-haven role. If it continues to worsen, investors, particularly in Europe, are likely to accelerate their rush into physical gold, buying bullion coins, small bars, and ETFs, as they did in mid-2010 when Euro-angst was, like now, at a feverish pitch. But, either way, as traditional physical demand continues to grow, especially in Asia and from central banks in that region and elsewhere, gold is increasingly going into stronger hands that are less likely to sell even at much higher prices. Short-term trading in derivative markets may, at times, produce a great deal of gold-price volatility but, in my book, it does not affect the long-term price trend. What governs the price of gold over the long term are the market’s real-world supply and demand fundamentals - and these have been decidedly bullish . . . and are becoming even more so. Hence, my long-standing long-term forecast of higher gold prices over the next several years. Robust Physical DemandWhile speculative pressures have pushed gold lower, physical demand has remained quite firm - not just from European’s seeking a safe haven - but, even more so, from Asian markets, particularly India and China, where investors and consumers are taking more gold for reasons that have little to do with the world political and economic situation. India, for example, is now celebrating (this year beginning on Wednesday, October 26th) the Diwali “festival of lights.” Considered an auspicious time to buy gold - investment-grade jewelry, small bars, and coins - Indians are showing no reluctance to acquire gold at what are historically very high rupee-denominated prices. Our friends in the Indian bullion community expect continued strong physical demand in the months and years ahead - reflecting growth in personal income, particularly in the agrarian and rural communities that traditional buy and hoard gold, as well as worrisome domestic inflationary pressures. Not to be understated, India’s central bank purchase of 200 tons of gold in 2009 was an official endorsement of the metal’s role as a reliable store of value and savings asset that many private households are now following. Chinese gold demand is also robust, due to income growth, rising wealth, and also inflation fears. Higher gold prices, rather than discouraging demand, have attracted new investors to the market. And, the central government has been pro-active in promoting investor access to gold by encouraging the development of physical and futures exchanges and retail gold distribution through banks and other retail outlets across the country. Sticky GoldNot counting official purchases by the People’s Bank of China, Chinese consumers and investors are now the world’s biggest end-market for gold. And, this is long-term “sticky” demand, much of which is unlikely to come back to the market anytime soon, perhaps not in our lifetimes, even as the metal rises to a multiple of today’s price. In addition to solid private-sector physical demand, the official sector has been an increasingly important buyer. Russia and China have been most prominent, buying fairly regularly and stepping up acquisitions whenever the price dips as it has in the past couple of months. The list of central banks buying gold this year includes South Korea, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Thailand, Bolivia, and Colombia. With both the U.S. dollar and the euro looking tarnished and risky to central bank reserve managers, official-sector gold acquisitions have likely increased in recent weeks at lower price levels where purchases could be made discretely without any noticeable affect on gold-price volatility. And, this too, is sticky gold that is unlikely to return to the market any time soon. What few gold pundits realize is that the amount of physical gold available in the world gold market - the “free float” - is shrinking, thanks not only to Chinese and other Asian buyers, but also due to renewed interest and accumulation of gold by a growing number of central banks. For central banks, the holding period may be measured in decades if not longer. As a consequence, future demand will have a much more high-powered affect on the price of gold - and this is one of the reasons we expect much higher prices in the years ahead. |
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bsiong
Supreme |
03-Nov-2011 00:05
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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Gold, silver witness correction, may resume upward trend |
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bsiong
Supreme |
02-Nov-2011 22:50
Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health" |
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November 2, 2011
SAFE-HAVEN APPEAL RETURNS ON MANY CONCERNS In overnight trading, precious metals prices have rebounded on a multitude of developing stories that have strong macroeconomic implications. Gold holdings have risen on the news. According to Dan Smith, head of metals research with Standard Chartered, " There is more of a risk aversion-type dynamic developing because of all the complications around Europe and with the Greek referendum on the cards. … All these things will bring some doubts about the political and macro outlook. … It's also a good time of the year for physical demand for gold as … we head into the end of the year.” The overall feeling in Europe continues to be shock and awe over Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou’s decision to call a referendum vote. A meeting with other EU leaders, including French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, is set for later today. According to Erik Nielsen, global chief economist at UniCredit Bank, “Given the state of markets and world affairs in general, it is clear that the leaders will work hard at sending a positive message of cooperation and solidarity. … But, frankly, it is difficult to be too optimistic.” In the U.S., the main focus will be what is said at the conclusion of the Federal Reserve meetings this afternoon. The general presumption is that a QE-like program will be initiated, most likely in mortgage-backed securities. However, most domestic economic news has pointed to a healthier economic outlook. After Fed Chairman Bernanke’s previous statements of a faltering economy, most economists want to know if he still feels the same way. The eighth largest bankruptcy filing in U.S. history, MF Global, continues to send shock waves through the stock markets. The collapse had a direct correlation to its exposure to European debt, with a projected shortfall of clients’ moneys of about $700 million. The books have not yet come under federal review, and there are differing opinions as to what will be found. The U.S. government still has its own debt crisis that is passing just under the radar, but it could quickly come to the forefront as signs are pointing to the congressional “super committee” not coming up with solutions to reduce the deficit.
At 8:03 a.m. (CT), the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:
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