| Latest Forum Topics / Others |
 Post Reply
|
|
things every retail investor/trader should know
|
|
|
elfinchilde
Elite |
30-Sep-2008 10:40
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
may i add that what buy calls i'm having is strictly for longterm (think 3-5 years) and on fundamentals only. also, in strikes. caveat applies as usual. update for the list: no go yet for sembcorp, sembmar, SPC as well. trillions in sovereign debt, but they can afford to spend a couple of billions every month in Iraq. No one created that debt but themselves. and c'mon lah, 700bil is cheap compared to the carnage that has happened, and will follow in the months to come. credit freezes up, decent businesses can't get loans, mortgages go unpaid, more unemployement, etcetc. (this is for the US). The bailout, like i wrote in my blog, isn't about correcting fiscal damage: the broader agenda is the damage it causes to US image globally. ie, the bailout is a bailout of foreign confidence in the US. that is something you cannot put a price on. They've bombed big time. and why? because all the republicans were scared to vote yes, since McCain had stated a no. Notice how the chief culprit for this mess, Greenspan, has remained silent throughout. lol. In any case, may also be good: once and for all, send the world into a deep recession, and from there, we can recover. edit: is there any others that i should be updating? |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
Farmer
Master |
30-Sep-2008 10:28
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Caution! Today is month and quarter end, FMs will definitely do a window dressing to smooth-out their portfolio. My view is sell into strength if you need to or take profit before market close today. 
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
|
|
|
Arbitrager
Senior |
30-Sep-2008 10:13
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Hi bros.. since a long time i m active at sharejunction. can really feel the jittery in the market. everyone is expecting the 700b bailout to be passed. 2 reasons y its not being passed, firstly its a ultra big moral hazard for the lawmakers to pass this bill as earlier the main street were asking the lawmakers to pass a $150b bill to improve the social healthcare in US for all ppl and they rejected it for the reason "NO MONEY". and now those fat cats in wall street in deep shit they created, they asking for $700b bailout plan to help them out which will be proven useless to savage the situation. (Estimated it need at least $1tri to buy out all trash in the mkt) Wat make you think its wise for the lawmakers to pass thru it. if they were to pass thru it eventually, the next bomb you will see is the default in personal credit. Secondly, US is already in trillions of sovereign debts. How the US lawmakers going to finance this bailout? by printing more fiat money and adding more sovereign debts to finance this futile effort to bailout these failing banks. The last thing we wan to see is the default in US govt. Its going to be a bottomless pit if they keep pumping in money to brace the stock market. What they are doing is not really solving the underlying problems. We are also starting to see banks failing in europe side and it just the beginning.. Do maintain cautious and this market is going to wash out many investors in the mkt. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
elfinchilde
Elite |
30-Sep-2008 09:47
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
eyes sharp for bargains today, peeps. eyes sharp for bargains. so many, don't know what to buy. am hurriedly going through ARs and charts now. lol. update the list: as of right now: not yet for capland, no touching china plays (sure to tank when HSI opens), if STE doesn't dip further it's a buy. UIC is lkg very attractive but i'd like lower (NAV 179), SGX KIV, commods no go. OCBC not yet. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
elfinchilde
Elite |
29-Sep-2008 16:09
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
they're killing yl as expected. ref my post on 25th saying "which also means we can expect concerted effort to push down yl's px tmrw and mon". note there's no support for yl below 89 as from depth data now. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
|
|
|
elfinchilde
Elite |
28-Sep-2008 23:49
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
hehe. nice timing, baseer. :) especially with the "if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is." just updated my blog, in light of the relationship managers article in the straits times today. http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/09/relationship-managers.html kinda freaked out because they were giving buy calls for commods funds. >~< . it's two pretty long posts though. i've basically given the main reason why RMs don't know much about what they are recommending in one post. and in another, why right now, for me, i really would not choose to buy a commods fund. http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/09/case-against-commodities-now.html do take a look if you folks have time, if you are curious to know how i combine FA and TA for a market read. may be helpful to the n00bs. 
alternatively, if you're considering buying a commods fund right now, pls. Just listen to an alternative elfin view before you make up your mind. No harm done having more perspective. It won't take you 10 min.
of course, do make up your own minds after reading. i'm not saying i'm definitely right. 
cheers! |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
baseerahmed
Master |
28-Sep-2008 22:53
|
|
x 1
x 0 Alert Admin |
Some Rules Never invest in anything you do not understand. You cannot be right if the market is telling you you are wrong. The market is always right. Do not just look at returns. Consider always the risk. In fact try to exaggerate the risk a bit before making the decision. There are a lot of risks hidden in the income statements, the balance sheet and their footnotes and there are a lot of risks inherent in every sector of the economy. Run with a winning postion. Get rid of losing ones. Remember that no one has ever beaten the market consistently. Warren Buffet lost money in 1999 while the NASDAQ was an all time high. If it sounds too good to be true, it invaribly is. Never invest before you figure out what your objectives are. The market has always paid more for those who stuck with it in the long run than for those who tried to outsmart it. What is perfect for your neighbour is not necessarily even good for you. Remember that in the best of markets there are stocks making new lows. Do not try to rationalize every dog in your portfolio. Dogs do not become lions. Do not wait for this surprise, much as you desire it. Keep your ear to the ground. Some new company with a better idea may be speeding by. Stay informed. Your broker does not know better.There is no virtue, nor profits in ignorance. The overwhelming evidence suggests that professional investment advisors do not earn their fees in extra profits in your portfolio. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
elfinchilde
Elite |
25-Sep-2008 16:36
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
ah, ok. thanks, guys. basically that means shortist has to pay the higher of the two pxes + 2 bids lah. lkg at the yl sell queue, shouldn't be a problem for them then. which also means we can expect concerted effort to push down yl's px tmrw and mon. haha. if sellers are smart, they'll redraw sell queue and force the shortists to buy up higher. cos current queues for yl are atypically large. i see false queues all the way..... which also means those false queues need to be extremely careful on tues, because if you short to the shortists then and fail to deliver, the penalty under new SGX's ruling is $50,000. note: am personally not vested in the counter. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
|
|
|
rogue_trader
Master |
25-Sep-2008 15:48
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
T+3 closing or T+4 (10.30am or 11.00am, there a certain timing), sgx will take the higher of the 2 prices and add 2 bids. In the case of absence of sellers @ that "added price", sgx will keep on adding 2 bids to match a seller. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
AK_Francis
Supreme |
25-Sep-2008 15:30
Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
T+3 closing price is the ref. T+4 1130 am is the final call price. If T+4 1130 price is higher than T+3 closed, then penalty is shortist is to pay the higher price plus 2 bids higher. If by T+4 1130, the stock price is lower than T+3 price, then shortist need to cough out T+3 closing price plus 2 bids higher to buy in. Its up to CDP, as u are the accused, 4 bids higher u ought to pay as well, as u dun know when CDP files in the buy in.. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
SmartBear
Member |
25-Sep-2008 15:28
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
ahhhh... elf.... now i know who u tokin about |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
rogue_trader
Master |
25-Sep-2008 14:02
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Buy-in is T+4. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
|
|
|
elfinchilde
Elite |
25-Sep-2008 13:51
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
buy in is T+3 i believe....(perhaps the more experienced shortists can shed light). in any case, lkg at yesterday's BUSD data, appears the shortists had gotten wind of it earlier; there was sudden massive buys btwn 1400 to 1436 hrs. so i wouldn't think more than 500 lots got caught actually.... |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
jchongll
Member |
25-Sep-2008 10:31
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
yl price seems struggling along $1... yet to see the spike... really hope your prediction come true... 
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
elfinchilde
Elite |
24-Sep-2008 17:39
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
here we go: http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/09/explanation-of-sgxs-new-ruling.html i've read and explained the short selling rules, for those who are still puzzled. my sources tell me yl today will be enforced with the penalty. let's see if it's real. if so, the lifting of the TH will be a good opp to unload for the longterm. I'm waiting to see the vol of ppl caught. 
follow it and see how high it spikes to though. 1.47 will be the near term resistance. may spike beyond that, because there was an extraordinary vol sold before the TH today; lots of 100s. which is atypical for this baby. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
jchongll
Member |
24-Sep-2008 17:22
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
elfin...thats hell lot of valuable information!!!!   ok.. at least i can save a bit of loss when SGX un-halt this counter tomolo... better than nothing... 
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
elfinchilde
Elite |
24-Sep-2008 17:06
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
yl is actually an old bribery case from more than a year ago; but just that it now is awaiting court decision after the official kena for corruption in other cases. yl is being blamed for 'substantially offering a discount to market price", but then, EVERYONE does that. look at the HPL case involving the lee family. same also wat. besides, it's normal for property owners to offer discounts of 7% or so on soft launches to VIPs; up to 15% is also regular practice in the global industry. so let's see if they can worm their way out. odds are in their favour actually, assuming they didn't do more hanky panky, or that the discount wasn't something ridiculous like 50% or whatever. The Chinese govt can be unpredictable though: if they decide to make a case of yl, then you can expect it to be indicted. But rationally, if you look at it closely: it's not yl they're after, but the official. the funny thing to me is naked shortists today on the counter. it was being played. then they surfaced the rumors (which was actually an old thing), double shorted, and now i think they're major screwed if the TH doesn't lift by today. SGX has every right to ask for penalty then on naked shorts, since the buying in is tues.
so it all depends on SGX's mercy now, whether they want to enforce the rules, or let these ppl go. Apologies if the above sounds harsh, but i think everyone should know that i've always been against shortists, for the same reason that i do not believe in contra: bad money management. you do not play with money you do not have. cheers! FA-wise tho, yl's NAV is abt 53c. THey have new shares coming up which will dilute it; offer px of 92c. 2012 has convertible notes, tho at a px of 2.71. But longterm that means dilutory, coupled with slower growth on the horizon. so run on any bounce, really. FA-wise, i wouldn't hold this counter. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
jchongll
Member |
24-Sep-2008 16:30
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
yes... i am sitting on the fence now... but still holding yanlord (from last time).... now trading halt.. what does this symbolises? i want to get out if possible... :( |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
elfinchilde
Elite |
24-Sep-2008 13:31
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/09/yanlord-for-day.html those in yl to be careful. serious case, this one. fundamentally, i wouldn't touch this counter. now technically to see if its backer will support it. if not, there's byebye to yl as it relegates to the range play ranks of cosco and yzj. jchongli, no hurry to touch stocks now. longterm or shortterm, today's not a buy day. local BBs are out and about. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
jchongll
Member |
24-Sep-2008 12:36
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
wow... elfin, you have a blog!!! will go there to support!! :) haven been touching stocks for the last few weeks cos out of town... but market really bad... haiz.. pss: thanks elfin for your analysis previous round... |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |