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Pinnacle
Master |
26-Nov-2007 11:21
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x 0 Alert Admin |
After weeks of consolidation, equity markets are approaching a short-term low. For the STI, expect a technical rebound starting from 3250 to 3316. The upper band of this anticipated technical rebound should be 3475 to 3510. Adopt a trading stance, as the medium term trend remains one of consolidation. Continued concerns about the US economy and the specter of higher oil price should cap STI?s near-term upside at the stated upper band. Inflation is another concern. Driven by rising food and oil prices, Singapore?s October CPI spiked to 3.6%, above DBS Research and market consensus of 2.8%. The market is expecting swift countermeasures as the latest data climbs to a 16-year high. According to a BT article, rising inflation has pushed down the real interest rate dramatically and is expected to drive the property market as buyers and borrowers take on more mortgages, which are costing them very little in real terms. Real interest rates, which a borrower pays after inflation has been factored in, have fallen sharply as prices climb and could turn negative early next year when inflation is projected to hit a high of 5%. Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang said that the Chinese government is committed to an Aug 20 plan for letting the country's investors trade shares on Hong Kong stock exchange. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has affirmed the country's plan for implementing a pilot programme that allows individual Chinese investors to buy and sell shares in Hong Kong. |
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Pinnacle
Master |
26-Nov-2007 10:47
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Immediate outlook: The Straits Times Index?s (STI) fell for the 3rd consecutive week, ending the week at 3,325.89, down 115pts or 3.3% lower week-on-week. Last week, the index found support at its 62% Fibonacci level at 3,322. There is a positive divergence on its on MACD Histogram and its RSI is now oversold. The oversold RSI suggest that there could be a possible rebound this week. In the past 2 occasions, the index found a bottom when the RSI reached the oversold region. Investors however should remain cautious when trading this week. Continue to buy sparingly on dips as the index is still below its 100-day SMA. Medium-term outlook (2-6 months): The index is easing off slightly after failing to break the LT middle band resistance at 3,780-3,850. The index?s bearish Evening Star reversal pattern has successfully identified a top in the current trend. Indicators have also stayed negative last week, suggesting that a stronger base is needed before it can rally further. For now, the index is testing its middle band support at 3,320-3,435. There is a high chance that it could build a strong base around these levels. Long term investors should start to accumulate around these levels. In the longer term, we still expect the bulls to try to push past the 3,906 level and lift the index towards the 4,015-4,226 levels. Support & resistance S2 S1 Last Close R1 R2 3,200 - 3,236 3,320 - 3,345 3,325.89 3,430 - 3,450 3,550 - 3,575 |
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Pinnacle
Master |
26-Nov-2007 10:37
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CIMB ? Last Friday, US equities markets ended a holiday-shortened week on a relatively positive note although for the week, the US market still posted losses, with the DJIA losing 1.5%, the S&P 500 down 1.2% and the Nasdaq off 1.6%. Once again, will the positive end to US equities last Friday inspire Asian and Singapore equities this Monday morning and turn this week into a better week for stocks? We could well see a technical rebound this week for the STI after falling 12% the past 4 consecutive weeks ? assuming we do not get any nasty news! While there are plenty of uncertainties right now, if there are any signs that US consumer demand, the pillar of the US economy so far, has not fallen off the cliff over the near-term, investors may be tempted back into equities. The US National Retail Federation had predicted combined Nov/Dec holiday sales of 4%, the slowest since 2001, when sales were up 1.3%. Investors will be waiting to see how US retailers fared over the Thanksgiving weekend which typically accounts for about 10% of all holiday sales in the US. ? There are also lot of other US macro data releases this week: November?s consumer confidence data (Tuesday), Oct durable goods orders (Wednesday), Oct existing and new home sales (Wednesday and Thursday respectively), revised 3Q07 GDP (Thursday). Oct personal spending & income and Chicago PMI (Friday). The US central bank is also releasing its latest report card on the state of the US economy (Beige Book) on Thursday. While the revised 3Q07 GDP data is likely to show a stronger growth of around 5% from the initially reported 3.9% (thanks mainly to stronger net exports), the latest Beige Book will provide a more up-to-date report card of the US economy. A more upbeat report may lift the US dollar and equities while a more subdued picture of economic activities?. (but on the other hand this may mean that the US central bank may cut interest rates more aggressively in the next FOMC meeting (Dec 11)). ? There are also plenty of mth-end macro data releases from around the region. We will get the usual mth-end money and banking stats from the various Asian central banks towards the end of the week. These are likely to show buoyant monetary and bank loans growth around the region. Here in S?pore, the MAS data out on Friday may show loans growth of 13-14% yoy (vs. an average of 11% growth for the previous 3 mths) on stronger property-related lending. And October?s credit card stats will also reflect the underlying strong domestic demand here in S?pore. Perhaps the more important macro data for S?pore is this Monday?s release of October factory output data. October exports data out a couple of weeks ago showed a modest rebound (Oct NODX: +6.8% vs. Sep07?s +2.2%) on the back of stronger non-tech exports (chemicals & lumpy items such rigs) while tech was a smaller drag on NODX. Note that in US$-term, NODX would have risen by over 15% yoy last mth, the strongest in 10 mths. Barring any surprises from the biomed cluster (especially drugs), the consensus forecast is for Oct07 factory output to expand 7.5% yoy (CIMBGK forecast:+8.6%), reversing September?s -2.8%. ? Elsewhere, M?sia (Wednesday) & P?pines (Thursday) will report their 3Q GDP this week. Both countries are expected to report strong numbers on the back of sustained domestic demand ? just as Taiwan, HK and S?pore who all reported good 3Q GDP growth the last 2 weeks. But these 3Q GDP figures may not lift investor?s sentiment this week given the current cautious mood about the outlook for the near term. ? The bottom line is that there is plenty of external and local macro news for investors to ponder over this week. If the news flow is positive, crude oil prices may break the US$100 a barrel level and prices for other commodities may rise further!! If so, the risk of consumer spending slowing in an environment of higher costs may have increased. So good macro news may actually be bad news for holders of equities?! Confused? Get ready for another nail-biting week ? if you have any nail left by now. 
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Pinnacle
Master |
26-Nov-2007 09:57
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STI up by almost 2.5%! Hope this is sustainable. Dec normally is a good month.
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Pinnacle
Master |
26-Nov-2007 09:51
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Singapore's Straits Times Index rises 2 pct on financials SINGAPORE, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Singapore's Straits Times Index <.STI> rose more than 2 percent during early trade on Monday, as financial stocks tracked Wall Street's Friday gains. The STI stood at 3,392.61 points at 0143 GMT, driven by a 3.3 percent rise in Singapore Exchange |
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Pinnacle
Master |
26-Nov-2007 09:13
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STOCKS NEWS ASIA-Markets rise after Wall St rebound Asian stocks rebounded on Monday after four straight weeks of losses, with investors buying beaten-down banks as well as some of the region's top exporters, encouraged by a robust start to the U.S. holiday shopping period. Last Friday, also known as Black Friday, marked the first official day of the shopping season in the United States, where more than 147 million shoppers flocked to stores over the four-day Thanksgiving holiday. But the average consumer spending fell, a retailers' group said on Sunday. [ID:nN25365410] "A better Black Friday, which lifted U.S. stocks, boosted sentiment and the market is likely to show a strong rebound," said Choo Hee-yeop, deputy general manager at asset management strategy department of Korea Investment and Securities. At 0026 GMT, Tokyo's Nikkei average <.N225> had climbed 0.7 percent, while MSCI's measure of other Asia Pacific stocks <.MIAPJ0000PUS> put on 1.2 percent, recovering from last week's 4.7 percent drop -- its fourth-straight weekly decline. The MSCI index, while still up 29 percent this year, has fallen about 13 percent from the Nov. 1 peak, on growing worries that a deep U.S. housing slump and credit losses suffered by major U.S. banks could hurt the region's top export destination. Elsewhere, South Korea's KOSPI <.KS11> gained 1.9 percent and Australia's key S&P/ASX 200 index <.AXJO> added 1.6 percent. Investors bought major exporters on hopes that U.S. consumers will remain resilient, sending Canon Inc <7751.T>, Sony Corp <6758.T> and Hyundai Motor <005380.KS>, all more than 1 percent higher. Banks, hit hard by fears of credit losses, were also in favour with gains seen nearly across the board. Australia's Macquarie Group Major miners were on the rebound after the recent selloff, with BHP Billiton U.S. stocks rose in Friday's abbreviated trading session, pushing the blue chip Dow <.DJI> and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> both up nearly 1.5 percent. |
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Pinnacle
Master |
26-Nov-2007 08:29
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Asia Stocks Week Ahead-Still shaky, but steadier Asian stocks could see some support in the sessions ahead after four straight weeks of declines, but investors are likely to remain easily spooked by further bad news in the credit market. Regional equity markets have turned tail since surging to record highs in late October and early November, falling more than 20 percent in some cases. "I think the big falls are behind us, but I'd be reluctant to expect a return to those bull market conditions," said Tim Rocks, regional equity strategist at Macquarie Securities. "If you get into Fed officials' speeches that cause investors to reassess those (rate cut) expectations that we've currently got, then I do think we'll have to fall further." U.S. debt markets have priced in the prospect of an interest rate cut at next month's Federal Reserve meeting, with more easings in 2008. Worries that a deep U.S. housing slump and tight credit would hit U.S. consumers have cast a shadow over the health of the U.S. economy, Asia's top export destination. Early in the new week, the main focus will be on how U.S. consumers fared during 'Black Friday', the start of the holiday shopping season in the United States. This year's holiday sales are forecast to rise at their slowest pace in five years, according to the National Retail Federation. MSCI's measure of Asia Pacific stocks excluding Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> has fallen nearly 14 percent from its November 1 record high, but is still up 28 percent this year, almost four times the gains for MSCI's key global stock index <.MIWD00000PUS>. -- FACTORS TO WATCH (FOR WEEK STARTING NOV 26) ** For Asian company earnings, see [ASIA/EQTY] ** Key U.S. earnings/data (for Wall Street report, see [.N]) Tuesday - Nov consumer confidence - Fed Philadelphia President Charles Plosser speaks on "The Economic Outlook and Central Bank Policy" Wednesday - Oct durable goods, existing home sales, building permits (revised) - Fed Dallas President Richard Fisher gives general remarks on the Fed and regional economy Thursday - Q3 real GDP, corporate profits (preliminary); Oct new home sales - Earnings: Dell "People seem to be looking for a reason to buy. If sales are good on 'Black Friday' in the United States, this could really change the atmosphere of the market," said Takashi Ushio, head of the investment strategy division at Marusan Securities Co Ltd. The Nikkei, which plumbed a 16-month low on Nov. 22, is expected to range from 14,500 to 15,500 if the U.S. sales are good. The strength in the yen, however, will continue to be a concern. Thursday - Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association announces production, export data for October -- ** IN KOREA (for Seoul report, see [.KS]) "This downward trend will continue throughout next week. But stocks with low valuations will be going up, with IT, telecom and automobile companies likely to remain on focus," said Won Jon-hyuck, an SK Securities analyst. Tuesday - North-South defence minister talks (day 1/3) Wednesday - Oct industrial output (0430 GMT) - Samsung Tech Forum Thursday - Oct service sector output (0430 GMT) -- ** IN HONG KONG (for Hong Kong report, see [.HK]) The benchmark Hang Seng Index <.HSI> could test 25,000, below its 100-day moving average, and marking a 22 percent loss from its peak set in October, analysts say. "The market is still not stable," said Kingston Lin, associate director at Prudential Brokerage. "I don't think the bottom has been reached." Monday - Oct external trade data Wednesday - Earnings: Wharf (Holdings) |
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Blastoff
Elite |
26-Nov-2007 07:51
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STI should move north today given 181.84 increase in DOW. Let's see... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Pinnacle
Master |
25-Nov-2007 19:49
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The market normally perform pretty in well in Dec. Let's hope this year the trend is not broken. |
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DnApeh
Master |
25-Nov-2007 16:28
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Hi singaporegal. you time your holidays very well leh. |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
25-Nov-2007 16:25
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Hi mirage, I can't see any bottoming out yet from the charts you posted. In any case, it is extremely dangerous to do bottom fishing. It is almost always a mistake to try to time the market because it is nearly impossible to predict that accurately. It is better, in my opinion, to follow the trend. I believe we can all take a break from trading until next year..... I don't see the bull coming back until then. |
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mirage
Veteran |
24-Nov-2007 22:04
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Hi, SingaporeGal, TA Gurus, SJ Forumers, From the following 1 year charts, any views, has the STI bottom out, is it on a trend reversal, is it time to do some bottom fishing? From this point onwards, any prediction, come 31st January 2008, what will STI be like? Best Regards, mirage. 
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Blastoff
Elite |
21-Nov-2007 08:14
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DOW up by 51.7. Hopefully STI will follow...Let's see. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Pinnacle
Master |
20-Nov-2007 21:53
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SE Asia Stocks-Markets down, but off lows on Fed rate cut talk Southeast Asian stock markets mostly fell on Tuesday, dented by fears of further fallout from the credit crisis, although speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve would cut rates helped indexes off their lows. Singapore's benchmark Straits Times Index <.STI> made the best recovery, managing to claw a 0.8 percent to 3,438.27 points, having been stuck in the red for much of the session. Thai stocks <.SETI> were down 0.1 percent at 829.97 points at 0913 GMT, having touched a low at 812.17 points. Indonesian shares <.JKSE> were off 0.8 percent at 2624.86 points, recovering from an earlier trough at 2551.029. Malaysia's index <.KLSE> was down 0.6 percent to 1371.70 points, trimming some earlier losses. Philippines' index <.PSI> dropped 2.9 percent to 3540.61 points. Vietnam <.VNI> slid 1.5 percent to 983.52 points. Earlier in the session, Southeast Asian shares followed declines in global equity markets after Goldman Sachs earlier downgraded biggest US lender Citigroup <C.N>, reigniting fears that losses from the global credit crisis may widen. This led to speculation that the Fed would hold an emergency meeting to cut rates. Although unsubstantiated, it gained momentum in markets and was cited in broker reports. "Until now, no-one can ascertain the actual quantum of damage that the subprime issue will bring," said OSK Research head Kenny Yee in Kuala Lumpur. "All this volatility in the US will translate itself into regional markets." Banks -- among the hardest hit by resurgent credit concerns -- rebounded. In Singapore, United Overseas Bank <UOBH.SI> gained 2.1 percent to S$19.60. DBS Group <DBSM.SI>, Southeast Asia's biggest bank by assets, rose 1 percent to S$19.60. In Malaysia, broadband telecom firm TIME dotCom <TCOM.KL> and mobile phone firm DiGi.Com <DSOM.KL> both fell after the government said it would withdraw some of the wireless broadband spectrum to reduce competition. DiGi stock sank 4.6 percent to 24.80 ringgit. TIME dotCom fell 0.6 percent to 0.895 ringgit. In Indonesia, shares of its two biggest mobile phone companies, PT Telekomunikasi Selular (Telkomsel) and PT Indosat Tbk <ISAT.JK> slid, after its anti-monopoly agency said it found Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings [TEM.UL] had breached competition law and ordered it to divest its shares in one or other of the two firms. Indonesia's largest telecommunication firm PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk <TLKM.JK>, which owns 65 percent of Telkomsel, dropped 3.4 percent to 10,100 rupiah. Indosat, Indonesia's second-biggest mobile phone firm, dropped 4.8 percent to 8000 rupiah. In Bangkok, Thailand's top banks dropped on concern the spreading credit crunch in the US would further hit profits. Top bank Bangkok Bank <BBL.BK> dropped 1.7 percent to 117 baht. Number two Krung Thai Bank <KTB.BK> slipped 2.8 percent to 10.30 baht. Fifth-ranked Bank of Ayudhya <BAY.BK> slid 6.5 percent to 24.30 baht. BankThai <BT.BK> fell 3.3 percent to 1.75 baht. The four Thai banks have a combined $715 million of collateralised debt obligations (CDOs). "Due to global credit woes, shares in banks <.SETB> should be hit further by selling, especially four banks which have CDO investments," said Thanachart Securities analyst Saengtham Jaranachaikul. |
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Pinnacle
Master |
20-Nov-2007 21:51
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Singapore market closed in mixed. Should have a better day tomorrow if DJ can maintain its positive index.
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Pinnacle
Master |
19-Nov-2007 20:12
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A bad start to the week.
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Manikamaniko.
Master |
19-Nov-2007 06:35
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A bear market that lasts and lasts and lasts is not unusual too... But money can be made my many in such a market ... with shorting trades...  |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
18-Nov-2007 19:49
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Hi mirage, Thanks for posting so many pics for me. From the bollinger band, the STI index has cut below the lower band. That's a bad sign. Another bearish sign is the low trading volumes in the market. Not many people are willing to put in money into the stock market. December is also generally a slow month for the stock market. I don't think we will see much of a recovery until next year. |
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KiLrOy
Master |
16-Nov-2007 21:38
Yells: "I buy only what I can see." |
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The market has been inching southward day by day. While it's doing that, I am taking time to reflect on my own portfoilio and also reviewing the fundamentals (look at the EPS and NAV of each stock vs the price) of each of the stocks owned and see if those stocks that has now turned undervalue which is worth buying in more. I am also starting to look at the daily chart for the technicals for a buy signal however bearing in mind, the bigger picture trend which is currently down trend. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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zhenxian
Senior |
16-Nov-2007 20:06
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Hopefully next week will be better. How long do you think this "bearish" trend will last? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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