Pierre Lassonde - This Gold Bull Market is Far From Over

Will Kim Jong-Il's death hit Asian gold prices?21 December 2011 

The bank’s Asian economist says there is little near-term risk of an immediate rise of military tensions between North Korea and South Korea, which could be why gold didn’t react. If the North Korean power transition is more difficult than it was when Kim Jong-Il assumed power, then it could lend some modest support to gold, the bank said.

Further, recent demonstrations in Russia, questioning the fairness of recent parliamentary elections, may also supportGold  prices.

“Although geopolitical risk traditionally has a secondary influence on gold, an uncertain transition of power in North Korea and civil unrest in Russia, as well as uncertainty about how the West will deal with Iran’s nuclear program, have the potential to support gold prices,” HSBC concluded.

 

Closing Gold & Silver Market Report – 12/21/2011

Gold steady as Europe debt worries persist

Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 12/21/2011

Strong dollar rally will crush gold and stocks in 2012 amidst severe deflation

By Clive Maund
Last week saw a severe breakdown in the Precious Metals sector that is now viewed as marking the start of a bearmarket, and that means the  onset of a deflationary episode that is likely to prove more serious than that we witnessed in 2008, because it will involve countries going bust rather than " just" banks and large corporations as was the case in 2008.

At first glance gold's 3-year chart still doesn't look too bad, with its price in the vicinity of a still rising 200-day moving average, but last week it broke below this average for the first time since 2008, which is in itself a serious warning, and ominous developments on the charts for  Silver  and the Precious Metals stocks indices, strongly suggest that  gold is in the process of completing an important top area, which looks like it is taking the form of a bearish Descending Triangle.

Momentum as shown by the MACD indicator, is now firmly in negative territory, and failure of the important support level at the lower boundary of the suspected Descending Triangle will  Lead  to a severe decline as shown.

The dollar  broke out above an important resistance level, negating a potential Double Top, as we can see on its 6-month chart below, although the breakout is not as yet by a decisive margin. This has opened up the possibility of  another strong upleg by the dollar, which is of course what we would expect to see if deflation strikes.

How far could the dollar rally?  The 5-year chart gives us a good idea - it could run swiftly to the 88 - 89 area during a major deflationary episode.

If the PM sector is signalling a major deflationary episode, then we should see signs of topping action in the broad stockmarket, and we do. A large Head-and-Shoulders top is completing in the S& P500 index, and with the index high in the Right Shoulder we are believed to be at an excellent point go short, buy bear ETFs etc

Let's stand back a moment now to consider the  larger implications  of all these developments on the charts.  The breakdowns now occurring across the PM sector are an indication that the forces of deflation are set to assert themselves and come to the fore. These forces have always been there, lurking in the background since the first major deflationary convulsion back in 2008, and  their intent is to cleanse the world economic system of the dross of the gargantuan debt and derivatives overhang that is bringing the world economy to a dead stop.

The key point to understand here is that  these forces may be kept at bay for a while but they cannot be stopped  - and creating even more debt and derivatives in an effort to stave off their impact, which is what central banks and governments have been doing since 2008, simply creates a more disastrous situation later on. Thus the accelerated ramping of the money supply and the maintenance of " zombie banks" and the propping up of bond and stockmarkets is an open invitation to disaster on a massive scale.

There is also a widespread assumption that that the entrenched powers that be, Goldman Sachs, the Republican Party etc are unassailable and immortal - that's what the Tsar of Russia and his family thought before they were summarily shot by the Bolsheviks in 1918. Nothing is forever.

2012 is going to suck - it probably won't be as bad as the movie " 2012" , but it's going to suck. Prepare yourselves as best you can


Source:  clivemaund 

London Trader - There Are Tremendous Silver Shortages

Silver isn’t there, there are people who purchased SLV to own physical silver, but all they have is shares that aren’t backed by the physical silver.  Read More

 

China gold turnover surges 77% after price crash, huge demand pushes up premiums

Last week's price drop has stimulated demand from Europe and the Middle East and Asia with GoldCore and other dealers confirming still robust demand and little or no selling of bullion.

Gold bar premiums in Singapore and Hong Kong rose from last week, as demand is expected to increase during the upcoming Chinese New Year holidays and buying interest has returned after last week’s price drop.  Premiums in India have also increased.

Demand from China ahead of the Lunar New Year in late January should help support prices. While demand may not be on the massive scale seen last year – demand will likely be very high again which makes  Gold  well supported at these levels.

Reuters report that Societe Generale points out in a note this morning that turnover on the  Shanghai Gold Exchange was at record levels yesterday morning. " After an average daily turnover of 6.5 tonnes during November, volumes have averaged 11.5 tonnes daily since the 12 December, when gold had dropped below $1,700," Soc Gen said.

This means that  average daily turnover on the SGE is up a significant 77% from levels seen in November  suggesting that China’s influence on the gold market may be reasserted  in the coming days.

Goldman Sachs gave a three-month price view on  Gold  of $1,785 an ounce in a note today, a six-month view of $1,840 and a 12-month view of $1,940.

As long as cheap money and “bail outs” remain the misguided ‘grand solution’ implemented by politicians and bankers in Europe and internationally, gold’s bull market appears very sound.

As each solution fails, a bigger ‘bazooka’ is proposed and now comes the ‘nuclear bazooka’ of a multi trillion dollar bailout of Europe by the ECB, aided by the IMF and the Federal Reserve. Who will bail out Japan, the UK and the US from their coming debt crises?

An unsustainable mountain of debt will not be solved by creating more debt no matter how complex or what complicated structure is used.

Debt write downs, bankruptcy and a planned downsizing of our banking system and the gradual deleveraging of our financial system remains the real solution to this crisis.

Unfortunately, this remains taboo amongst many politicians and many of the so called experts that helped create the current financial and economic crisis.

Source:  goldcore

    By Rujun Shen	



    SINGAPORE, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Gold rose to a one-week
high on Wednesday, extending gains from the previous session, as
upbeat economic data from the United States and Germany boosted
market sentiment and a weaker dollar lent support.	


    The euro edged higher, riding on a sharp rise in German
business sentiment and strong demand for Spanish debt, with
investors watching the European Central Bank's first offer of
three-year loans to banks that many hope will help the region's
banks lower their funding costs.  	


    On the chart, spot gold pierced above the 200-day moving
average, seen as a key support since 2008 until a week earlier
when prices plunged. 	


    " The rebound in gold today is related to the currency
market,"  said Dick Poon, manager of precious metals at Heraeus
in Hong Kong. " But we don't see much fresh buying from investors
as the year end nears." 	


    Poon said gold could rise towards $1,650 by the end of the
year, but the thinning trading volume could lead to great
volatility in prices.	


    Spot gold rose as much as 0.8 percent to a one-week
high of $1,627.65 before easing slightly to $1,625.85 an ounce
by 0339 GMT. It rallied 1.3 percent in the previous session.	


    U.S. gold gained 0.6 percent to $1,628.	
    	


    Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's biggest
gold-backed exchange-traded fund, remained unchanged for a third
consecutive session at $1,279.975 tonnes by Dec 20. 	


    " What surprised me is holdings of gold ETFs are still
holding up despite the recent sell-off, which is a good sign," 
said Dominic Schnider, head of commodity research at UBS Wealth
Management.	


    But gold is unlikely to visit its historical high any time
soon as uncertainties around the euro zone debt crisis and
global growth have created a liquidity crunch that hurts gold's
sentiment as much as it hits riskier assets.	


    " Gold is not the asset of choice on a search for liquidity.
It gives you comfort against currency risks, inflation,
sovereign debt problems, but not liquidity crunch." 	


    Spot platinum hit a one-week high of $1,441.50 and
eased to $1,435.50, up half a percent from the previous close.
Spot palladium rose 0.7 percent to $627.29. 	


    Barclays Capital suggested that in the first quarter
investors build length in markets where fundamentals are most
supportive, including copper, platinum group metals and gold.	


    " Across the metals sector and arguably for commodities as a
whole, supply constraints look tightest in the PGMs,"  it said in
a research note, adding that the deteriorating output in South
Africa and Russian palladium stockpiles that are widely believed
to be near exhaustion would trigger a drop in platinum and
palladium supply next year.	


  

  

Closing Gold & Silver Market Report – 12/20/2011

Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 12/20/2011