Latest Forum Topics / COSCO SHP SG Last:0.135 -0.002 | Post Reply |
CoscoCorp
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louis_leecs
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11-Apr-2008 00:05
Yells: "half cash" |
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to all retail investor,,,,,,when usa recession,,,,cosco will get less contract,,,nevermind still big enought toget new contract,, when steel price up,,,,,shipbuilder like cosco profit margin will reduce so share price drop to 3.81,,,,,,now worst in worst,,,now shipowner can suka suka cancell the deal and no pernalty charge,,,,that mean worst than steer price up,,,cost up still can earn money,,,,,now cancell order mean no single cent income,,,,,o money income,,,,you know what i meant,,,,,i can undestand why fund manager dump heavy today,,,,,i think cosco will drop to penny stock akan datang day if coy director not come to announce to prevent ship owner can suka suka cancell order and no deposite penalty,,,,and how abt if ship built half way or indent alot steel or recruit new work,,,,,tis try of labour cost will affect profit,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,so im total avoid tis cosco at least now,,,,,,,im cannt imagine tomorow and then............. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Naproxen
Veteran |
11-Apr-2008 00:00
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The other day saw Allgreen suddenly 2000 lots buy Q after closing. Then next day it starts going up. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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john9352
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10-Apr-2008 23:53
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I noticed that there is a 1.9 million share transcation at 5:11pm. There are aslo similar high volume transcation for SIA and City Development at about 5:12pm. Does that mean that these shares are going to dive down tomorrow? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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kawaiiboi
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10-Apr-2008 23:46
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hmm analysts checking out shipyards at this point of time? After Financial Controller left, stock price hitting year low.. sound negative to me.... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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hotstock
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10-Apr-2008 23:36
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Next week some analysts going to 3 shipyards for visit. Believe more good news coming | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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787180
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10-Apr-2008 22:18
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jenniferpoo
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10-Apr-2008 22:13
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2 cosco directors ( Zhou Xie Dong & Ang Swee Tian ) purchased from open market today between $2.86 ~ $2.89 |
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Naproxen
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10-Apr-2008 22:05
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Morgan's report was made when Cosco was at 3.36. At 2.85, it already factors in the loss of contracts. Despite these issues, Morgan price target is $6.00. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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aleoleo
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10-Apr-2008 21:42
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I think it might plunge down further ... support at 2.6 ~ 2.7 |
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musante
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10-Apr-2008 21:34
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not to worry... hv a good nite rest........In stock market investment ,,,anything is possible... STI today created (in c/stick chart) a spinning top ......with some gap dwn....... With a little bit of luck tomorrow....who knows.... should it open higher than today's opening point..... and proceed all the way north..... then we'll hv. a morning star or an abandon baby......and we are on track with a bull reversal..... But if it choose the other way round...... then..it's going to be DOOM..!!!!!! So before we lay dwn. to sleep ...do ,,,a little bit pray...hogn.... Good Luck...Cheers....!!!!
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787180
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10-Apr-2008 21:26
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April 9, 2008 Cosco Corporation Order Cancellation: Only Just Beginning Quick Comment: the decline in new orders from dry bulk shipbuilding segment through offshore-related orders this year. However, cancellation announcement of the GM5000 semi submersible hull contract will create doubts in investors? mind and stock could under-perform in the near term. Stock is currently trading at 13x 08e/12x 09e, but our earnings estimates and PT are under review. We believe COSCO(S) could offsetWhat's new: US$292.3 million to build two shuttle tankers and the hull of a semi-submersible production unit; and b) the termination of a US$202 million contract to build a semi-submersible hull for Norway?s Red Flag A.S., as the deposit terms has not been fulfilled. COSCO announced a) contracts totalingPositive: A) Credible customer and 100% deposits for all the offshore projects reduce the probability of future cancellation; B) COSCO(S) has added capacityand capabilities at Nantong, Qidong, and Lianyunjang shipyards to tap growing offshore rigs/production platform demand; be mitigated smaller yards? inability to deliver on their shipbuilding projects. C) shipbuilding oversupply couldwith the cancellation of ship orders andNegative: A) Further cancellations probable ? COSCO(S) has not received down payments for 20% of its existing shipbuilding contracts. We could see further decline in COSCO(S)?s order book should customers choose to let the contracts lapse; concerns on dry bulk ships remain ? book is 56% of the global dry bulk fleet. This could result in overcapacity situation considering current slower global growth outlook and resulting decline in global trade; due to significant increases in steel, equipment, and labor costs. We expect 2% lower margin YoY if steel price increase surprises by 20% per annum. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. B) overcapacityCurrent orderC) shipbuilding margin could decline furtherFor analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+ Praveen K Choudhary Singapore Multi-Industry Praveen.Choudhary@morganstanley.com +65 6834 6744 Xin Jin Ling XinJin.Ling@MorganStanley.com +65 6834 6735 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Rob HartAsia Multi-Industry Team Leader Rob.Hart@morganstanley.com +852 2848 5068 M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H A S I A / P A C I F I C Stock Rating Overweight Industry View Attractive Key Ratios and StatisticsReuters: COSC.SI Bloomberg: COS SP Singapore Offshore & Marine Price target S$6.00Shr price, close (Apr 9, 2008) S$3.36Mkt cap, curr (mn) S$7,55052-Week Range S$8.20-2.57Sh out, basic, curr (mn) 2,237.7EV, curr (mn) S$7,104Net debt/cap (12/08e) (%) (119.4)ROE (12/08e) (%) 61.0Shrs out, basic, per-end (12/08e) (mn) 2,253S'hldr eqty (12/08e) (mn) S$1,393RNOA (12/08e) (%) 135.5e = Morgan Stanley Research estimatesFiscal Year ending 12/07 12/08e 12/09e 12/10e ModelWare EPS (S$) 0.15 0.26 0.29 0.32Prior ModelWare EPS (S$) - - - -EPS, basic, rpt'd (S$) 0.15 0.26 0.29 0.32Prior EPS, basic, rpt'd (S$) - - - -Revenue, net (S$ mn) 2,262 4,375 5,997 7,040ModelWare net inc (S$ mn) 346 587 656 730P/E 37.4 13.0 11.7 10.6P/BV 13.5 5.5 4.3 3.6EV/EBITDA 24.0 7.3 6.4 6.0Div yld (%) 1.2 3.6 4.4 5.4e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates2 M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H April 9, 2008 Cosco Corporation Details COSCO announced a) contracts totaling US$292.3 million to build two shuttle tankers and the hull of a semi-submersible production unit; and b) the termination of a US$202 million contract to build a semi-submersible hull for Norway?s Red Flag A.S., as the deposit terms have not been fulfilled. They received the contract in May 2007. Positive A) Offshore contracts seem secure: project is from a US customer, and the deposit has been secured. Deposits and progress payments for other offshore projects have also been received, reducing the probability of these contracts being cancelled. The recent offshoreB) Increased capacity to leverage on high oil price: Current high oil prices could prompt E&P companies to order more rigs. COSCO(S) has added capacity and capabilities in the offshore segment through investment in newer yards, namely, Nantong, Qidong, and Lianyunjang. C) Oversupply could be mitigated ship orders and smaller yards? inability to deliver on their shipbuilding projects. This could result in better demand/ supply situation. According to Worldyards, newer shipyards might struggle to deliver dry bulk ships and cease operation, resulting in 9% lower supply. with the cancellation ofNegative A) Further cancellations probable: received down payments for roughly 20% of its existing shipbuilding contracts. We could see further decline in COSCO(S)?s order book should customers choose to let the contracts lapse. COSCO(S) has notB) Overcapacity concerns on dry bulk ships remain: Current order book is 56% of the global dry bulk fleet. This could result in overcapacity situation, considering current slower global growth outlook and resulting decline in global trade. C) Downside to margins persists: decline further due to significant increases in steel, equipment, and labor costs. We expect 2% lower margin YoY if steel price increase surprises by 20% per annum. Shipbuilding margin couldCompany Description COSCO Corp (Singapore) Limited is the largest ship repair and marine engineering group in China, with interests in seven mainland shipyards. COSCO (S) is engaged primarily in ship repair operations, but also derives revenue from dry bulk shipping and shipping agency. COSCO (S) is a subsidiary of China Ocean Shipping (Group) Co (COSCO Group), one of the largest shipping groups in China and one of the 10 largest shipping conglomerates in the world. Singapore Offshore & Marine Industry View: Attractive MSCI Country: Singapore Asia Strategist's Recommended Weight: 6.9% MSCI Asia/Pac All Country Ex Jp Weight: 4.9% 3 M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H April 9, 2008 Cosco Corporation Morgan Stanley ModelWare is a proprietary analytic framework that helps clients uncover value, adjusting for distortions and ambiguities created by local accounting regulations. leases (where their use is significant), and converts inventory from LIFO costing to a FIFO basis. ModelWare also emphasizes the separation of operating performance of a company from its financing for a more complete view of how a company generates earnings. For example, ModelWare EPS adjusts for one-time events, capitalizes operatingDisclosure Section The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated by Morgan Stanley Asia Limited (which accepts the responsibility for its contents) and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte. (Registration number 199206298Z, regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which accepts the responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Securities Pte Ltd (Registration number 200008434H, regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which accepts the responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited and/or Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Seoul Branch, and/or Morgan Stanley Australia Limited (A.B.N. 67 003 734 576, holder of Australian financial services license No. 233742, which accepts responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited and their affiliates (collectively, "Morgan Stanley"). 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Morgan Stanley does not assign ratings of Buy, Hold or Sell to the stocks we cover. Overweight, Equal-weight, and Underweight are not the equivalent of buy, hold, and sell but represent recommended relative weightings (see definitions below). To satisfy regulatory requirements, we correspond Overweight, our most positive stock rating, with a buy recommendation; we correspond Equal-weight to hold and Underweight to sell recommendations, respectively. Coverage Universe Investment Banking Clients (IBC) Stock Rating Category Count % of Total Count % of Total IBC % of Rating Category Overweight/Buy 1036 43% 328 44% 32%Equal-weight/Hold 1001 42% 327 43% 33%Underweight/Sell 351 15% 99 13% 28%Total 2,388 754Data include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings. An investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investor's existing holdings) and other considerations. 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Additional information on recommended securities/instruments is available on request. © 2008 Morgan Stanley M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H Industry Coverage:Singapore Offshore & Marine Company (Ticker) Rating (as of) Price (04/09/2008) Praveen K Choudhary Cosco Corporation (COSC.SI) O (09/17/2007) S$3.36 Labroy Marine Limited (LABR.SI) O (10/10/2007) S$2.83 SembCorp Marine (SCMN.SI) O-V (11/01/2007) S$3.73 Stock Ratings are subject to change. Please see latest research for each company. The Americas 1585 Broadway New York, NY 10036-8293 United States Tel: +1 (1) 212 761 4000 Europe 20 Bank Street, Canary Wharf London E14 4AD United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) 20 7 425 8000 Japan 4-20-3 Ebisu, Shibuya-ku Tokyo 150-6008 Japan
Cosco Corporation Order Cancellation:
Only Just Beginning Quick Comment:
the decline in new orders from dry bulk shipbuilding
segment through offshore-related orders this year.
However, cancellation announcement of the GM5000
semi submersible hull contract will create doubts in
investors? mind and stock could under-perform in the
near term. Stock is currently trading at 13x 08e/12x 09e,
but our earnings estimates and PT are under review. What's new:
US$292.3 million to build two shuttle tankers and the hull
of a semi-submersible production unit; and b) the
termination of a US$202 million contract to build a
semi-submersible hull for Norway?s Red Flag A.S., as
the deposit terms has not been fulfilled. Positive: A) Credible customer and 100% deposits for all the offshore projects reduce
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nickyng
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10-Apr-2008 21:06
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divy only 4cts meh ??? chunbo ??? got the followng from SGX leh...
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spurs88
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10-Apr-2008 20:21
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The director Mr Zhou went into the market to pick up some of iys own shares today at $2.89. What better way to dispel all the rumours! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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henrytan
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10-Apr-2008 20:11
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Why the heavy sell down? Why does contract is being cancelled? When business is good, shipping companies does not mind to build more ships. But when economic is going down, what happens? Factory orders drop, shipping business will also be affected. Therefore, there are more fear of more cancelling of contract. And in view of U.S. recession, it will definitely affect world demand. The next-in-line countries that suffer from U.S recession will be Asia who export most of our goods to them. When this take place, commodity prices will fall sharply. |
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hotstock
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10-Apr-2008 19:26
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It is giving 4c dividends which CD till 18 Apr 08. This dividend should provide some support right? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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wacko111
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10-Apr-2008 19:04
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time to go in? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Ping009
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10-Apr-2008 18:51
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Thanks for your consolation. But i am not too optismistic Dow will turn green tonight looking at all the negative news... Sigh.. |
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musante
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10-Apr-2008 18:41
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Within your contra period ...... its tough to predict....... But ...in my opinion...... Should STI goes back north in red.... And should Cosco can get back into abv. 2.90.....and then shoot abv.3.00 thereafter.......... You'll stand a very good chance.... To achieve...Good Luck... Cheers....!!!!
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Ping009
Member |
10-Apr-2008 18:30
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You guess with this piece of news will prevent major selldown again tomorrow? Me bought 5lots at 2.99 today. wonder if i can pull out within the contra period. anyone can advise? Sure will have sleepless night liao.. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
10-Apr-2008 18:28
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Cosco said on Thu that rising steel prices would not hurt its margins after its shares tumbled more than 15% on market talk it may face more order cancellations. Cosco President Ji Hai Sheng told Reuters that one of its core businesses -- which buys steel for the construction of new ships -- was affected by steel prices, but only accounted for 20% of the company's total turnover. South Korea's POSCO, the world's fourth-biggest steelmaker, raised its prices by as much as a fifth on Thu as it sought to pass on soaring raw material costs. "No, we do not have any further clients cancelling contracts," Ji said. Ji said that given the large number of shipbuilding contracts already in the bag, the firm would focus more on offshore rigs. "We signed a lot of contracts for new ship buildings, a lot of these slots have been taken up," he said. "Now we will concentrate on offshore (rig) building." He declined to comment on whether this year's order book would surpass last year's US$6.5 billion, but said he expected most deliveries to be on time. |
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