I received a bad surprised from the big drop as well as I have not look at the stock market for quite a while. The only consolation I have is that I have a few lots.

Q4 earnings for SPC is good as refining margin is between $7-$8 (estimated at $7.7) and crude was averaging USD90+. First shipment of crude from Oyong was sold at USD$93.30 while the second shipment of crude was sold at a higher price. EPS for Q4 should be between 30-35cts while dividend is estimated at 45cts. There will also some losses such as a weaker US currency.

Moving forward into 2008, RM is likely to be lower especially for 1st half but we will also continue to see higher contribution from upstream business. There is also a good chance that SPC will expand its upstream business in a big way. While crude is likely to continue its downward trend (I say at most USD75), the price will almost certainly rebound to new high (just a matter of when). The key reason for this is due to decreasing oil supply as major oil field in the world continues to dry up. Actual oil supply in 2007 has decreased while oil demand has increased. At the same time despite all the media about alternative energy, there is no significant breakthrough and development in these area. I expect the Fed to move to hyperinflate the economy and hence any recession is likely to be shortlive and oil is likely to hit new high.

When all this worry about US economy is over, my take is that oil and gold will be the big new story.