CONFIRMED:
Venue: Speaker's Corner, Hong Lim Green
Date: Saturday 11 October from 5 to 7 pm.
Topic: Petition to Singapore Government on Credit Linked Securities.
Speakers:
1. Tan Kin Lian
2. Leong Sze Hian
As a large crowed is expected, it may not be possible for some investors to hear the speakers. The authority allow a loud hailer to be used, but not a powered loudspeaker. I will keep my speech short and give a handout to people who are not able to hear me.
Signs will be put up for the attendees to meet other investors who have invested in similar products, e.g. Minibond, High Notes, Pinnacle Notes, Jubilee Notes. The main purpose of this event is to show a large gathering of investors.
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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crazy_fave
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22-Oct-2008 08:30
Yells: "crazy_fave" |
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1 USD = 1.4868 SGD | ||
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crazy_fave
Member |
16-Oct-2008 07:52
Yells: "crazy_fave" |
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US$1= S$1.4819. | ||
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elfinchilde
Elite |
13-Oct-2008 16:25
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well, i guess this is a bit after the fact, but the px probably revealed the answers. yes, 2.64 remains the support. so the entry today was at the low of 266 where it pinged off (rem what i said that support levels are only a rough guide, the price-vol action determines the exact buy/sell). a 2nd buy signal generated at 278. so rationally a good run for singtel today is to abt 2.97. psych resistance would be 3. so if 3 is broken you can lk to 305. if not, the close likely 297 or so. (note: all the above is for day trade only). personally i don't quite like this counter. haha. |
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ace6868
Member |
12-Oct-2008 22:17
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Elf, you the Best!! Your call that Singtel WILL close at 2.77, was spot on!!.... Just to follow up on Singtel... it broke below 2.70, touched 2.64, rebounded and then closed at 2.77. What does this mean..... do we take 2.64 as its new support or maintain at 2.70 as the support? Pls educate us. Thks.
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sgdividends
Member |
11-Oct-2008 10:47
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Just to share..from a trader guru. Not me...someone else. Source : www.sgdividends.blogspot.com Q: What type of shares should one buy? A: Buy the top two of the best-managed institutions from each of the key sectors of banking, media, telecommunications, healthcare and computer software. These sectors tend to be essential and also have inherent oligopoly power. Q: Is the investing going to be smooth sailing? A: Absolutely not, especially at the initial phase of your buying spree. All your good friends including your dear spouse will think that you are crazy. They will say, "The market is getting lower, this is too dangerous, you can wait". And likely, in the next few days or weeks after buying, the market may indeed go lower, and you will look like a fool.But to want to buy at the absolute bottom is not possible. But to buy near the bottom is possible and can be made highly probable by this approach. Be prepared for some short-term psychological torture. But you need to buy. If not, you will watch and miss the opportunity altogether. Somehow in most cases, you will later look like the wisest man in town for having the courage to buy those shares. View it as short term pain, long term gain. Q: When then should one take profits? A: For shares bought resulting from a market crash due to special events (ie it is a one-off situation), one can take profits when profits are between 30% to 70% within a six months period.However, for shares bought as a result of an economic crisis or economic downturn one should keep them for years. Liquidation should only begin when the bull market is so obvious and in such a great rage that it sucks in all kinds of new retail players. The greater fool theory, unfortunately, always comes into play near the end of a new bull market cycle. Shares should be disposed gradually over a 24-month period as bull markets normally last much longer than expected. Q: After taking profits, what should the investor do with the money? A: Stay in cash until shares are at basement prices again. This strategy implies that when not invested one must hold cash and be patient even if the waiting period is long. In fact, one of the unprofitable "myths" that is frequently encouraged and practiced is that of continued deployment of capital to enhance returns.This approach usually means that when the opportunity comes for acquiring bargain basement shares you will not have the money. Instead you will be among those hurt by lower share prices. Rather, you should build up liquidity for deployment when market liquidity is tightest in order to make big money. Q: How often can a retail investor reasonably be expected to participate in such an investment strategy? A: Assuming a 35-year investment life, one can expect to participate in three to four complete economic cycles, with each cycle of about eight to 10 years, yielding returns of at least 100% over capital. With this approach, transaction costs will be at the barest minimum and any disruption to one''s job will be almost non-existent, as the investor will be doing nothing most of the time. During this period of 35 years, one who is patient and courageous will in addition be rewarded with about five event market crashes, which should yield at least 30% for each event. Therefore this strategy though on a day to day basis does not seem to bear anything, can be very profitable and consistent over the 35 years horizon.Be patient and be prepared, and you will come out tops in the investment arena. If you are not patient and prepared, the stock market will be an expensive place to find out who you are. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
10-Oct-2008 17:31
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"long way to go". hehe, i expect that long way to be a short time. lol. everyday STI falls 100+ points, we easily hit 1800 by next week. just in case ppl are buying upon reading what i wrote: global funds still liquidating; no buying yet. But as investors, what you do need to do: look forward. Right now, when everyone's rushing for the exit, you need to sit down, adn seriously id what can do well in 2010-2012. So that when the time comes to buy (whenever it may be), you aren't caught in a tizzy and are NOT chasing stocks just because of "analysts' recommendations". rationally, it's still the same thing: between unwarranted optimism, and unwarranted pessimism, which are we closer to? The bottom will come when it comes. Meanwhile, there are scalps for the discerning; for longterm investors, you need to judge clearly. and lol. singtel closed at the exact level i called, 277. haha. you'll know market capitualtiobn when the G7 announces a whole host of initiatives, and market still falls. loushare, leong sze han would be a good speaker. those who are invovled, would be good to attend. if you're unhappy, after all, why sit back and grumble? singaporeans need to be more proactive. make yourselves be heard. cheers! |
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loushare
Member |
10-Oct-2008 17:19
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Although, I have not invested in mini bonds and other structured products, I empathize with many retires, would-be retires, aunties and uncles who were led to buy those difficult to understand financial products. Whenever one's saving account has reach tens of thousands dollars, they will be invited to a special rooms or counters to give you a special feeling as though you are their prefered client. I wonder those less than 40-yr old "bankers" will feel remorse when they see their clients' saving for their old-age gone. Below is something that is worth to take note. Speaker's Corner, Saturday 11 October, 5 - 7 pm |
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iPunter
Supreme |
10-Oct-2008 15:45
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The best time to invest in stocks is in the midst of a severe recession... when the mere mention of the word 'stocks' makes most people shiver all over... We are not at that stage yet... there may be a long way to go.. Maybe when the big guns of G7 meet today, there may be another 'biggest 1-day rise in a decade'...  |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
10-Oct-2008 13:44
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http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/10/market-capitulation.html --something for people to consider. hullo ace, i don't like singtel personally cos it's one of the counters used to control the STI. so very rapid fluctuations. quick scalp:personally, ithink that the risk/reward not worth at this point (i assume you mean intraday/overnight). ocbc if you can get at 610-612 to run to 640, stop loss 599. 620's now not worth a scalp: they've lidded this counter at 645 with with 502 lots currently. singtel: 277 likely cap for today. if 270 breaks, realistically, say hello to the 230s support zone. fyi only. above is strictly the rapid data only. i seriously don't think a scalp is worth now. caveat applies. longer term, let them find their own support first. |
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ace6868
Member |
10-Oct-2008 12:40
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Elf, what's your take on Singtel & OCBC? I'm looking at picking some up to hold for long terms (6- 12 mths) or good for a quick scalp? | ||
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elfinchilde
Elite |
10-Oct-2008 12:31
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ha. i put the fault of this fall solely on the americans. if they hadn't overleveraged, they wouldn't be forced to fire-house sale asian assets. and if the dang bailout had passed the first time, you can be sure the mood would be something different today. american stupidity, indeed. a good wake-up call, though. for those who think markets keep chionging up. and how FA is important in such times. because in the next years, what will be left standing, but companies with solid book value? all the ramps on speculative counters (that have absolutely no fundamental value) done by the BBs will likely stay dead til the next bull run. which, by cycles, should be about 7 years away. GDP at 3% is an overestimate, actually. remember i was discussing with a friend a couple of months ago. we had calculated it to be around 2.5%, top-end estimate. |
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crazy_fave
Member |
10-Oct-2008 09:02
Yells: "crazy_fave" |
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1 US$ = S$1.4771. 1. Singapore economy in recession. 2. Full year Sing GDP estimated at 3%. 3. MAS eases monetary policy.
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Livermore
Master |
08-Oct-2008 12:42
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Trend lines can be a leading indicator.
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elfinchilde
Elite |
08-Oct-2008 00:09
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edit: oh, and sometimes, esp for smaller companies, it's a board struggle: they may be forcing out the other person by shelling their own stock, to the point that the unwanted shareholder has to sell. so always be careful if you're vesting in something which two or more parties are fighting for control in. Men with egos are dangerous creatures. 
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elfinchilde
Elite |
08-Oct-2008 00:05
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yups livermore. get the basics right, the rest will come later. am always very wary of those who come in with a small amount, want to take shortcuts, and expect to be able to fly. there are no shortcuts in the market. it's really a longterm commitment to patience, discipline and consistency. separately: saw on another thread about margin calls and sudden tankings. Essentially, especially in bearish conditions: if a stock has faced drastic selldown in the days prior, key shareholders that are leveraged on margin may face margin calls--ie, their margin % falls below the 130% level. When that happens, forced-selling is effected by the brokerages (assuming you can't raise cash/stocks to fill up the margin requirement). ie, they sell your stock to whatever buyer there is. In bearish conditions, the buy queue tends to be thin (reference kepcorp notably, and sembcorp yesterday). When this is coupled with key shareholders having to sell their stock (a large quantity), what you get is the scenario of a vicious cycle: Stock is down. Margin calls ensue. Stock is sold down; large lots are force-sold. Further margin calls (for other players) occur. Stock is sold down further, buyers get scared and disappear. It's all made worse when shortists enter the picture, and when even people who are not on margin panick and sell. Kinda like a death spiral. So a veritable stock meltdown occurs. All this can occur in a single day. That's why you can see your stock suddenly plunging 40+ cents in a few hours, or less. (as kepcorp did). |
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crazy_fave
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06-Oct-2008 18:59
Yells: "crazy_fave" |
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1 US$ = S$1.4634. | ||
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iPunter
Supreme |
06-Oct-2008 00:06
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When we say 'price', we don't mean any particular price in a narrow sense... |
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Livermore
Master |
05-Oct-2008 23:09
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There are many indicators such as RSI, MACD etc etc but the most powerful indicator is actually price. I feel what's important is basic chart understanding of learning to draw trend, support and resistance lines. Even if you don't use all the indicators available, as long as you able to draw trend, support and resistance lines, it is really good already. In my opinion, they form the basic foundation.
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SupremeA
Veteran |
05-Oct-2008 10:58
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But empirical evidence shows otherwise. Markets take time to react to news, cos pl dun stare at market al day like us and cos of the transaction costs
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iPunter
Supreme |
04-Oct-2008 21:20
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All the FA (ie. all the experts' views) in the whole world is reflected in the actual price action in |
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