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ComfortDelGro
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ComfortDelGro
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singaporegal
Supreme |
10-Sep-2007 21:11
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Comfort's TA charts look bearish now. |
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investment
Senior |
01-Sep-2007 05:38
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COMFORT, abn remains a BUY with target price $2.52 (from $2.25) - We raise our target price from S$2.25 to S$2.52 on the back of an increasingly likely merger by year-end (S$0.15) and better economic growth (S$0.12). A strong domestic economy should benefit bus and rail operations. Maintain Buy. - Potential merger may spur the laggard . We believe the much-talked-about potential merger of ComfortDelGro (CD) and SMRT could be announced by year-end, when the Land Transport Review concludes. Assuming a merger of equals, a single operator in Singapore should lead to economies of scale in the bus, rail and taxi operations. We estimate a merger could yield a cash benefit of 15.1 cents per CD share. Meanwhile, a transparent fare hike mechanism and rigorous service quality standards are in place and are being enforced by the Public Transport Council to prevent a monopolist from profiteering. A merger could be a key catalyst for CD and offset its sluggish 2007 performance. - Transporting more heads at home . We believe ridership will increase for Singapore buses (up 4% in FY07) and rail (up 14% in FY07) as the population grows from 4.5m now to 6.5m in 10-15 years. With Singapore's transformation into a global city, the government predicts tourism will show a 6% CAGR till 2015, vs the average 3% CAGR for the past 10 years. Bus ridership in 1H07 has exceeded our FY07 forecasts by 2% while that for rail has almost reached our target. We estimate bus and rail will contribute 21% of FY07 operating profit, or S$77m. However, the taxi operation may stagnate at S$62m due to keener competition and a rise in driver incentives. We expect China (FY07F operating profit of S$52m, up 23% yoy) and Australia (FY07F operating profit of S$17.5m, up 6% yoy) to be the main growth drivers for overseas operations. - Raising target price to S$2.52 . We derive a fair value for CD of S$2.37 on the back of a higher long-term sustainable growth rate of 3% (2.5% previously) as the government has raised its five-year GDP growth rate forecast to 4-6% from 3-5%. We use a target PB of 3.3x, applied to a 12-month BV of S$0.72/share and a sustainable ROE of 17.4%, equivalent to our average FY07-09F ROE. FY07F PB and EV/EBITDA multiples of 2.6x and 6.2x compare well with peers' 4.2x and 7.4x, based on our own and Bloomberg consensus forecasts. Dividend yield is attractive at 5.7% in FY08F. Adding a potential merger benefit of S$0.15 to our fair value results in our S$2.52 price target. |
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Farmer
Master |
28-Aug-2007 12:20
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Agree with jesnigel partially. Actually both are defensive stocks in transport sector. SMRT begins to go regional now given its involvement in ME project. The key is what price to start buying? Anyone can offer opinion? I've sold off my SMRT holding near its all time high cause I think it's over value. Now waiting to collect back at lower price. |
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jesnigel
Member |
28-Aug-2007 11:54
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Dont be impatient. Price is still too high in my opinion. CD stated dividend policy is to pay out 50% of its net profits. This year is exceptional being the last year to pay out their S44 tax credits. I expect their dividend rate to drop a bit next year, depending on their overall earnings. They could also lose their "jewel" NEL to SMRT at the end of the day. I would rather look at SMRT, the jewel in the pure Singapore transport play. Thats what I would call a defensive stock, if you like one. |
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Fairygal
Veteran |
28-Aug-2007 10:39
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Actually I still waiting for less than $1.90 price to get in.......possible? |
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nickyng
Supreme |
28-Aug-2007 10:11
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wah...who say cannot drop fast? lao sai until 1.91 liao..hee..with SHORTISTs flooding the mkt...nobody can tell for sure wan...when in doubt SHORT !! hee... |
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Pension
Elite |
26-Aug-2007 11:27
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this is a defensive stock, cannot move fast and cannot drop fast but usually after cd, it will drop below what the cd can offer. everyone after collected the cd, they will let go their stock and move to another counter which the cd is due soon. It will go up after 2 to 3 weeks. |
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pikachu
Veteran |
26-Aug-2007 11:10
Yells: "Holy Cow!" |
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So how? tommorow can go in? |
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nickyng
Supreme |
24-Aug-2007 11:50
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wah..co-ordinated attack by BBs on this burger har? XD drop 11cts ??? even dividends abt 8cts+ niah leh...???? looks like my SHORTISTs comrades in actions! hee..... this burger is a CASH COW right? wonder keep so much $$ for what?? hee... |
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tanglinboy
Elite |
22-Aug-2007 22:42
Yells: "hello!" |
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Thanks singaporegal! |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
22-Aug-2007 22:01
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Hi tanglinboy, Charts are looking good. MAY have bottomed out. I still maintain a wait and see approach for another day or so. |
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investment
Senior |
21-Aug-2007 21:57
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ComfortDelgro Corporation
To benefit from new developments at Punggol
At the Singapore National Day Rally speech, Singapore?s Prime Minister unveiled the new face of heartland living in Singapore which will be represented by Punggol 21+ : the revamped version of Punggol 21. A waterway will be built in Punggol and new high-rise housing will be built on both sides of the waterway. With more housing, ridership, particularly for the North East Line (NEL) would benefit. Already, ridership for the NEL has been increasing by the mid-teens percentage pa for 2-3 years. The recent Apr-Jun07 yoy growth is even stronger at 20.1%. With the recently-announced development plans at Punggol, we believe ridership on the NEL could continue to increase at a high rate. Our sensitivity analysis shows that a 5% ridership growth for the NEL could :
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raise CD?s net profit by 1.0%; and ?
raise SBST?s (a 75%-owned subsidiary of CD) net profit by 5.5%. This assumes the existing infrastructure and staff can cope with the higher ridership. If NEL ridership can be sustained at 20% growth, then CD?s and SBST?s net profit could potentially increase 4% and 22% respectively. BUY CD.
Our target price of S$2.91 comprises a) S$2.70 value based on current land-transport ownership structure, which factors in a DCF valuation of the Singapore bus, rail and advertising operations (using 2.5% terminal growth rate and WACC of 6.9%) and PE valuation for the other businesses; and b) S$0.21 based on the assumption of restructuring of the Singapore land transport system to one-operator running all rail and bus services. |
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tanglinboy
Elite |
21-Aug-2007 21:10
Yells: "hello!" |
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Hi singaporegal, Has this bottomed out yet? The price seems stable now and has hit rock bottom already. |
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Fairygal
Veteran |
21-Aug-2007 14:23
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Think the BBs are back. 18 Mill lots done at 2.07 pm. |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
21-Aug-2007 11:19
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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TA charts look somewhat better than it was a couple of weeks back. But better to wait for price trend to establish itself. |
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Fairygal
Veteran |
17-Aug-2007 11:09
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Coming divvy is very attractive, XD on 24 Aug, so I think there is some upside to it next week. On the whole, it's good for the long term. |
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KiLrOy
Master |
17-Aug-2007 09:46
Yells: "I buy only what I can see." |
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Did anyone took advantage of the thin bid/sell volume and enter at 1.82/1.83 just now? This one pays good coming dividend so at the price, even after XD if it hovers at 1.90+, I believe there will still be gains. I believe this is singaporegal early favorite counter when she first started in SJ (true?). |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
03-Jul-2007 21:41
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Comfort seems to have slightly bearish TA charts. |
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bensonho
Member |
15-Jun-2007 21:57
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when stock is not moving it a good sign,especially comfort is blue chip,so dun worry,im still holding my 10lot bought@1.53 last year and will keep holding,if u trust me by end of the year end rally it will shoot up 2.80 to 3.00.compare to sats and sia engineering remember,it is very quiet seem nobody want it see wat the price nw |
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tomwong
Member |
15-Jun-2007 21:52
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Hi ! like to hear from members what do you think of this stock? seems not moving very much between $2.20... |
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