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YING LI
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jasonfaxingliu
Senior |
27-Nov-2009 09:36
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tks... may be we should look at 2010 where most invester is optimistic about the share market. | ||||
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novicetrader
Senior |
27-Nov-2009 09:04
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Fair Value S$1.17. It may take some time to reach this price due to the current market sentiments. Look at the DJI. It is at an all time high but the trading volume is low. Hence there is caution in the air. |
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jasonfaxingliu
Senior |
26-Nov-2009 14:12
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potential to go up? what is the target price? | ||||
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soularis
Member |
26-Nov-2009 12:01
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tks... looks good :) | ||||
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novicetrader
Senior |
26-Nov-2009 09:56
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You can also refer to my posting in this forum dated 20th November. | ||||
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novicetrader
Senior |
26-Nov-2009 09:54
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Phillip Securities Research (MICA (P) 146/01/2009) Yingli International Real Estate Ltd Successful Placement to raise S$154mil 18 November 2009 Yingli announced that they have successfully raised S$154.5mil through a placement of 253.2mil new ordinary shares at S$0.61 each to institutional investors. The issue price represents a discount of 15.5% to S$0.7217, which is the VWAP of the shares traded on 16 November to the time of trading halt on 17 November 2009. The 253.2mil placement shares represent approximately 13.3% of the existing share capital and approximately 11.7% of the enlarged issued and paid up capital of the Yingli after the placement. Funding details 85% of the funds raised will be used to develop the new Da Ping project with the remaining as general working capital purposes. To recap, Yingli announced the acquisition of the 28,200sqm plot of land in Chongqing through a government land auction for RMB 851.6 million. Yingli intends to develop the Da Ping project into a 370,000sqm of integrated development, with high-end residential, hospitality, as well as high-grade retail component. Valuation We view that the successful placement serves as a testament of the company’s appeal to the international investment community. Financially, we add in the net proceeds of S$147mil into our RNAV model and adjust for the enlarged share capital. Thereafter, we reduce the target price from $1.270 pre-placement to S$1.170 post-placement to account for the increased number of shares. We maintain our BUY rating. Key Financial Data (Financial Y ear Ended 3 1 D ec) Revenue 245.9 86.7 -64.74% 167.2 1200.4 2586.0 Gross Profit 78.1 26.0 -66.63% 84.0 444.6 1162.2 Fair value gain on investment 834.7 (50.5) -106.04% 12.8 662.8 21.5 Profit before taxation 897.5 355.4 -60.40% 59.3 907.5 774.0 Net Profit attributable to 680.1 357.4 -47.44% 38.3 616.2 535.8 Gross margin 31.74% 30.03% -1.71% 50.2% 37.0% 44.9% EPS (basic) RMB 0.314 0.165 -47.44% 0.019 0.294 0.251 NAV RMB 0.366 0.595 62.70% 1.013 1.298 1.546 FY07 FY08 %chq FY09F FY10F FY11F (1 RMB = S$0.203) Source: Phillip Securities Research Recommendation: BUY Previous call: BUY Price Previous close S$0.620 Fair value S$1.170 Share price return 88.7% Share Statistics Shares (mil) 1909.3 Market Cap. (S$ mil) 1193.3 Trailing PER 18.5 Forward PER 159.3 P/BV 5.1 52-week Price Range 0.055-0.915 52-week PB Range (X) 0.46 – 7.59 Listing Bourse SGX-Main Board Major Shareholder Newest Luck Holding 48.54%; Leap forward Holdings 26.69% Price Chart 0.050 00.1.51 00.2.52 00.3.53 00.4.54 00.5.55 00.6.56 00.7.57 00.8.58 00.9.59 8/04/2008 8/06/2008 8/08/2008 8/10/2008 8/12/2008 8/02/2009 8/04/2009 8/06/2009 8/08/2009 8/10/2009 Company Profile Yingli International Real Estate Ltd. develops commercial and residential properties. The company specializes in inner city renewal projects Analyst Brandon Ng Chenhao �� +65-6531 1792 FAX +65-6536 4435 �� brandonngch@phillip.com.sg Web www.phillipresearch.com Ref No: SG2009_0060 Singapore • China Property Sector • Update Yingli International Real Estate Limited 18 November 2009 2 Exhibit 1: RNAV Revised Net Asset Valuation In RMB mil Interest Development Properties for investment International Financial Centre 100% 3179.0 Jingong Restaurant Project 100% 1326.0 Lu Zu temple 100% 2234.6 San Ya Wan 80% 473.3 New Yuzhong 100% 2654.4 Total value 9867.2 Development Properties for sale International Financial Centre 100% 210.3 Jingong Restaurant Project 100% 156.9 Lu Zu temple 100% 234.3 San Ya Wan 80% 121.0 New Yuzhong 100% 415.8 Total value 1138.2 Book value of current investment properties as of FY2008 1279.9 Cash and receivables 124.3 Less liabilities (776.8) RNAV 11632.9 RNAV (S$) 2359.1 Net proceeds from share placement (S$) at S$0.28 per share dated 25 Aug 2009 28.7 Net proceeds from share placement (S$) at S$0.61 per share dated 18 Nov 2009 147.0 RNAV per share (S$) 1.172 Source: Company, Phillip Securities Research Exhibit 1: Da Ping Project Source: Company Yingli International Real Estate Limited 18 November 2009 3 Financials P rofit model (RM B mil) 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E Balance sheet (RM B mil) 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E Revenue 86.7 167.2 1200.4 2586.0 Investment in subsidiary 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cost of Sales (60.7) (83.2) (755.9) (1423.9) Property, plant and equipment 3.7 3.3 2.8 2.2 Gross Profit 26.0 84.0 444.6 1162.2 Investment properties 1279.9 1292.7 2147.5 2169.0 Non current assets 1283.7 1296.1 2150.3 2171.2 Other Income 539.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 Reversal of depreciation of investment p 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Development properties 105.6 1073.1 2092.7 2138.0 Selling expenses (7.2) (8.4) (60.0) (129.3) Land for development 572.7 940.7 887.7 887.7 Administrative expenses (22.7) (8.4) (60.0) (129.3) Trade and other receivables 24.2 11.0 22.6 119.0 Fair value gain on investment properties (50.5) 12.8 662.8 21.5 Amounts owing by a shareholder 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Finance costs (4.7) (20.8) (79.8) (151.0) Amounts due by related party 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating expenses (125.4) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash at bank- restricted 18.2 20.0 22.0 24.2 Profit before taxation 355.4 59.3 907.5 774.0 Cash and cash equivalents 82.0 633.4 528.7 963.7 Current assets 802.6 2678.3 3553.7 4132.5 Taxation 0.2 (17.8) (272.2) (232.2) Net P rofit 355.6 41.5 635.2 541.8 Deferred taxation 190.7 181.1 172.1 163.5 Minority Interest (1.9) 3.2 19.0 6.0 Bank borrowings 269.3 1113.5 2046.2 2208.2 Net P rofit attributable to shareholders 357.4 38.3 616.2 535.8 Non-current liabilities 459.9 1294.7 2218.3 2371.6 Trade and other payables 208.1 435.6 522.0 333.3 Amounts owing to holding company 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EPS (basic) RMB 0.165 0.019 0.294 0.251 Amounts owing to related party/ Directo 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 EPS (diluted) RMB 0.163 0.019 0.292 0.249 Provision for taxation 68.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 EPS (basic) (S$) 0.034 0.004 0.060 0.051 Bank borrowings 28.2 26.9 111.4 204.6 EPS (diluted) (S$) 0.033 0.004 0.059 0.050 Current liabilities 316.8 462.5 633.4 537.9 Share capital 2637.7 3503.8 3503.8 3503.8 Other Reserves (1977.6) (1977.6) (1977.6) (1977.6) Retained/ profits/ loss 626.2 664.4 1280.7 1816.4 Minority Interest 23.3 26.5 45.5 51.5 Growth & margins (%) 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E Total equity 1309.5 2217.1 2852.4 3394.2 Revenue growth -64.7% 92.8% 617.9% 115.4% Gross profit growth -66.6% 222.6% 429.2% 161.4% Total equity and liabilities 2086.3 3974.3 5704.0 6303.7 Net profit growth -47.4% -89.3% 1511.0% -13.1% NAV RMB 0.595 1.013 1.298 1.546 NAV S$ 0.121 0.205 0.263 0.313 Key R atios 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E Gross margin 30.0% 50.2% 37.0% 44.9% ROE (%) 34.4% 2.2% 24.7% 17.4% Net profit margin 412.2% 22.9% 51.3% 20.7% ROA (%) 18.8% 1.3% 12.7% 8.9% Net debt/equity (%) 15.1% 22.0% 56.3% 42.0% Cash flow statement (RM B mil) 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E Profit before taxation 355.4 59.3 907.5 774.0 Depreciation for PPE 0.9 1.8 2.1 2.4 Depreciation for investment 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Fair value gain on investment properties 50.5 (12.8) (662.8) (21.5) Other operating cash flow (487.4) (1190.9) (1365.0) (571.3) Cash flow from operations (80.6) (1142.7) (1118.2) 183.7 Acquisition of PPE (0.9) (1.3) (1.5) (1.8) Increase in investment properties 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net proceeds from disposal of assets a 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Acquisition of Subsidiaries (157.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash flow from investments (145.8) (1.3) (1.5) (1.8) Valuation 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E P/E basic (X) 18.5 159.3 10.4 12.2 Proceed from issuance of shares after a 555.2 866.1 0.0 0.0 P/B (X) 5.1 3.0 2.4 2.0 Bank loans obtained 0.0 843.0 1017.1 255.2 Repayment of bank loan (262.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other financing cash flows (6.1) (13.7) (2.0) (2.2) Cash flow from financing 287.1 1695.4 1015.1 253.1 Total cash flow 60.7 551.4 (104.7) 434.9 Source: Company, Phillip Securities Research Yingli International Real Estate Limited 18 November 2009 4 Ratings History Yingli International Real Estate Limited Rating Date Closing price (S$) Fair value (S$) Remarks BUY 18 November 2009 0.620 1.170 Update BUY 28 September 2009 0.895 1.270 Update BUY 17 September 2009 0.690 0.950 Initiation BUY >15% upside from the current price HOLD Trade within ± 15% from the current price SELL >15% downside from the current price Phillip Research Stock Selection Systems We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation 5 |
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soularis
Member |
25-Nov-2009 20:03
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can you post one writeup from any brokerage? tks | ||||
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novicetrader
Senior |
25-Nov-2009 17:25
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Have faith in this counter. There has been so many writeups and recommendations about this counter. Can't be wrong. Buy, hold, meet your target price... sell. |
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soularis
Member |
25-Nov-2009 16:08
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china govt make statement cos worried about asset bubble | ||||
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ray.chan
Member |
25-Nov-2009 11:59
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Price suddenly went down. Anyone know the reason??? | ||||
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risktaker
Supreme |
24-Nov-2009 09:32
Yells: "Sometimes you think you know, but in fact you dont" |
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Dont mess with Zhuge liang :) TP: 0.82 - 0.98 |
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risktaker
Supreme |
23-Nov-2009 12:53
Yells: "Sometimes you think you know, but in fact you dont" |
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Last Christmas present :) hehe. Enjoyed
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chris168
Senior |
23-Nov-2009 10:55
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If you believe the growth story and it being the proxy in Chongqing. I hope not another Midas though I am vested at 0.625. I sold Midas, lost $200 brokerage fees and switch to YL.
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risktaker
Supreme |
23-Nov-2009 10:24
Yells: "Sometimes you think you know, but in fact you dont" |
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I cannot reveal the TP :) Its still a buy @ 0.70 :P Huat ah 8888 --- See the power of Super BB Zhuge Liang
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blackstreams
Senior |
23-Nov-2009 10:20
Yells: "virtus; patiens; felicitas" |
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Now its 0.65-0.655. Its moving now. 
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risktaker
Supreme |
23-Nov-2009 09:46
Yells: "Sometimes you think you know, but in fact you dont" |
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This only the beginning. :) Accordingly to Zhuge Liang
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j3r0m3
Veteran |
21-Nov-2009 13:00
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From a TA pt of view, you might see that the price touching 0.59 for the briefest of moments before rebounding. As blackstream has mentioned, its definitely going to go sideways to flush out the contra players. (God bless them) So with this in mind, likely to have to wait til tuesday (24/11) and beyond to have any real significant upward movement. Reason why its range trading is because of accumulation or just "pumping" up the vol to remain in the top 30 vol page. BBs like to pass from left hand to right hand and back... |
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blackstreams
Senior |
20-Nov-2009 22:22
Yells: "virtus; patiens; felicitas" |
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johntanyg, the stock ended today at 0.63(b)-0.635(s) with more or less the same demand and supply at both ends. Think u can see there are two camps, the bulls (risktaker and yours truly) and the bears (tankuku and aleoleo). I am firmly bullish for the reasons I have stated previously but do decide whether you wish to be a bull or bear. Remember that bulls make money, bears make money but it's those who sit on the fence who get slaughtered. Read up on the financial accounting reports and analyse based on what your principles are. I believe the fundamentals are not as weak as the bears are trying to make them out to be - all property related firms lost money over the past few quarters, even capitaland, so I reject the bears' arguments. All the best.
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risktaker
Supreme |
20-Nov-2009 10:14
Yells: "Sometimes you think you know, but in fact you dont" |
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relax ah :) Watch carefully and you will see how strong is Zhuge Liang | ||||
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johntanyg
Member |
20-Nov-2009 09:48
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wa liew... how the heck does shortlist work anyway? pls advise the pattern n how u experts manage to notice it? how does it work? pls advise. n how come genting n golden agri so hot no one shortlist? i mean what is a favourite candidate counter for shortlisting? yr advise is much appreciated. thks |
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