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IndoAgri
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niuyear
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12-Jun-2009 11:36
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Wow, the following bloomberg news said that when Crude oil hit $76.00, it will drop 30% next few months !! This means have to becareful with those stocks that are oil-sensitive! - I copy/paste the news- June 11 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil is set to drop more than 30 percent in the next three to five months, New York-based broker Bay Crest Partners LLC said, using Elliot Wave analysis. Crude’s 61 percent rally this year is a “corrective, counter-trend” movement that will dissipate before prices exceed $76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, Bay Crest said. Oil will slump to between $48 and $50 a barrel, and then potentially drop further to $25, the broker said. “This whole rally which people are taking as the start of a new bull run is just a corrective move that will fail between $72 and $76,” Bay Crest’s director of technical research Christian Bendixen said in an interview from New York. “We’re very confident we’ll sell off to at least $48 to $50.” Bay Crest predicted on March 24 that crude would rise to a “$72 to $76 resistance area.” The $76 a barrel threshold is equal to 38.2 percent of the drop from $147.27 to oil’s four- year low of $32.40 on Dec. 19. The importance of the 38.2 percent level is based on the ratio, known as the golden mean, between numbers in the Fibonacci sequence. In Elliot Wave theory, prices follow either impulsive moves that describe an underlying trend, or corrective moves that work against it. Oil’s plunge from its record high of $147.27 a barrel last July to $32.40 in December was an impulsive move, and the subsequent recovery has been corrective, Bay Crest said. Oil futures for July delivery rose to a seven-month high of $72.30 barrel in New York trading today. Once the corrective phase ends at $76, the impulsive move will resume and take prices towards $50 to $48, a “confluence of support” that includes a major low in 2007, Bendixen said. ‘Three Waves’ “Major corrections happen in three waves,” Bay Crest’s Bendixen added. “A sell-off to $48 opens the door to $25 by the end of this year or March 2010.” Oil is unlikely to fall below $25 a barrel as “there’s a massive area of long-term support at that level, which prevailed in the 1990s,” Bendixen said. Crude will begin a “new cyclical uptrend” once the move towards $25 has been completed, he said. The wave theory was developed in the 1930s by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott and used by former Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Robert Prechter in his recommendation to sell equities before the October 1987 crash. Elliot’s theories held that markets swings, or waves, follow a predictable structure. The pattern is determined by the collective psychology of the people buying and selling. To contact the reporter on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net Last Updated: June 11, 2009 07:53 EDT | ||
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Singer88
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12-Jun-2009 09:39
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Getting ready for action. | ||
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niuyear
Supreme |
10-Jun-2009 10:00
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The Hindu News Update - Tues 9 June 09
Though Crude palm oil futures recover on fresh buying
New Delhi (PTI): Crude palm oil futures recovered by 1.10 per cent on Tuesday afternoon trade on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) as traders indulged in creating fresh positions on expectations of rise in spot demand.
At 1200 hours on the MCX, palm oil for the most-active May-month contract rose 1.10 per cent to Rs 361.20 per 10 kg, with a trading volume of 39 lots.
The oil for delivery in the July-month contract rose 0.17 per cent to Rs 361 per 10 kg. The contract recorded business of 14 lots.
Marketmen said fresh buying by traders and speculators on expectations of a pick-up in demand in the spot markets, mainly pushed up the crude palm oil prices at the futures market.
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Agri. & Commodities
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divearse
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09-Jun-2009 23:13
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All the palm oil play should be long term, anyone dare to say oil price will be low in the future? we all know the oil is gonna surge upon recovery. Question is there a recovery? At least all the people who invested in the recent rally do, so it only make sense that oil and energy related should be a long term play, it will be a gradual but steady long uptrend. Sorry shortist...Indo Agri should be a decent palm play, same as First Recource and Kencana. GAR? Hmmm too many corporate surprises...Anyway I have been accumulating evertime thre is a dip... | ||
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Singer88
Member |
09-Jun-2009 22:48
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Is time to wake up. | ||
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niuyear
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05-Jun-2009 16:43
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CNN - 4 JUNE Oil prices surged, along with the underlying stocks, after Goldman Sachs boosted its 2009 crude forecast to $85 a barrel and issued a 2010 forecast of $95 per barrel. Bank shares advanced as well, lifting the 24-share KBW Bank (BKX) index by 4.8%. |
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dealer0168
Elite |
20-May-2009 18:48
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It rally bc of oil price up. | ||
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niuyear
Supreme |
20-May-2009 15:47
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DBS vickers's target price is 1.35 (buy call 1.170) and now, this has traded beyond that! | ||
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syrix11
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15-May-2009 16:00
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SINGAPORE: Commodities player First Resources has posted an 82 per cent drop in its first quarter net profit to S$8.6 million. Revenue for the three months to March fell 41 per cent to about S$61 million due to lower selling prices for crude palm oil and palm kernel. Sales volume of crude palm oil also fell, which more than offset an increase in the sales volume of palm kernel. Looking ahead, First Resources said the fundamentals of the palm oil industry are improving as inventory levels in Malaysia and Indonesia are declining due to lower production volumes and increased consumer demand. The firm, which expects the import of palm oil into major markets to remain strong, believes it will be able to record credible performance in future quarters. |
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