It is PTT mandatory offer but u are not obligated to sell to them, only idiots will sell to them, the wise will sell unless the current price is 0.80 or below.

Wow!!! Just cant imagine, OCBC Research put Fair Value at $4.66, yet there are forumers tat think it is only worth dirt-cheap at below $1.

Most probably, if there is another crisis of a much bigger magnitude than the financial crisis or something worse than swine flu.

But I do hope, for the sake of humanity, such crisis does not occur.

From OCBC-Research

 Coal play Growing energy demands. According to the International Energy Agency, global demand for energy is expected to grow by more than half over the next 25 years. In the near term, energy needs will be driven by transport and power generation. Limited supply, combined with pressing demand, will continue to support energy prices. Riding on the back of overflowing demand, Straits Asia Resources (SAR) has been enjoying robust demand and healthy prices for its coal output.

More upside, limited downside. SAR is sheltered from volatile coal prices in the spot market as its prices are locked in six to 12 months forward. Contracts for 2008 delivery have been fully priced at US$70.5/ton, while the initial 53% of its 2009 contracts have been priced at US$110/ton, implying a hefty 56% increase in selling prices. The company believes that it has more room for upward revision of prices. Nevertheless, we have assumed a conservative blended price of US$90/ton for FY09, and believe that downside risk to our forecast is limited. Furthermore, even in the worst case scenario that coal prices drop 65% to US$37, SAR will still be able to break even given its low cost of production.

Taking a larger slice of the pie. SAR’s coal mines in Indonesia’s Sebuku Island and South Kalimantan produced 3.4m tonnes (Mt) of coal in 2007 and they are on track to more than double the total output to over 9Mt in 2008, all of which has been fully priced and committed. Recognising the insatiable global appetite for energy, the group is acquiring coal interests in Madagascar and Brunei. This expansion will not only increase its coal reserves substantially, it will also lift SAR to a global platform with a geographically-diversified portfolio of assets.

Supply lagging demand. Thermal coal remains one of the cheapest forms of energy - unit prices are approximately one-third the cost of crude oil. Coal’s cost appeal will continue to attract users from developing nations such as China and India. With demand expected to outpace supply, SAR will continue to enjoy strong pricing and bargaining power. We like SAR for its low production cost, order book visibility and pre-determined pricing which limits downside risk. Using a DCF valuation with 11% WACC and 1% terminal growth rate, we derive a fair value estimate of S$4.66. We maintain our BUY rating on SAR.

Hahaha... I wished u good luck & not missed the coal-fired rocket.

Of course, i too would be happy if it really can come down, so I can accumulate some more.

The moment, u said "I think", tats the emotional side taking control of u, the nemesis of TA.

Remember, a true TA practitioner is non-emotional, but mechanical, act on wat the charts tell them.

Wat u think is high can also get higher, wat u think is low can also get lower, so no point being emotional, just act & trade according to wat the chart tells u & set  cut-loss point.

Always remember "Cut-losses short, let profits run with trailing stops"

dealer0168      ( Date: 19-May-2009 22:28) Posted: Haha..... emm actually Mr Rich Tan is right. Just remember to cut lost when required. But just to highlight commodities stock will only rally well in good economy. N in current economy there are many doubts, and we will be seeing See-Saw type of stock price for this share. So what we can do is sell when the price is high & buy when it is low. But just to share my view, emm i still think $1.30 is still quite high.  So i may enter when price is lower  instead.......Cheers.

The reason is mentioned below, read & decipher lah:

Summary: Thailand’s PTT International (PTT) has made a S$0.807/share cash offer for Straits Asia Resources Ltd (SAR). The offer is a result of it purchasing Straits Resources Ltd’s 47.1% stake in SAR as part of a strategic alliance. The offer is priced 4.5% below SAR’s last transacted price and 7.9% below its six-month VWAP, and values SAR at a modest 2.2x FY09F PER and 1.2x FY09F NAV. This undervalues SAR’s strong fundamentals and earnings growth potential, in our view. We believe that the takeover offer is largely procedural since PTT has articulated its intention to retain SAR’s listing status on the SGX-ST. We do not expect investors accept the offer, especially given SAR’s generous dividends and robust prospects. We maintain our BUY rating and S$1.15 fair value estimate on the stock. SAR will be appointing an independent financial adviser to provide a recommendation in connection with the offer.

Lacklustre takeover offer. PTT International (PTT), one of Thailand’s largest energy companies, has made a mandatory takeover offer for Straits Asia Resources Ltd (SAR) at S$0.807/share. The offer is a result of it purchasing Straits Resources Ltd’s 47.1% stake in SAR as part of a strategic alliance. The offer price was derived from SAR’s 20-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP) prior to 20 Mar 09, but falls 4.5% below SAR’s last transacted price and 7.9% short of its six-month VWAP. In addition, it values SAR at a modest 2.2x FY09F PER and 1.2x FY09F NAV – far lower than the 11x PER price tag that Chinalco and Alcoa forked out for their stake in mining company Rio Tinto just a year ago. We are of the view that the takeover offer undervalues SAR, and do not expect investors to accept the offer. SAR will be appointing an independent financial adviser to provide a recommendation in connection with the offer.

No intention to privatise SAR. PTT’s takeover offer for SAR appears to be a procedural obligation as a result of it crossing the 30% ownership level. It has articulated its intention to retain SAR’s listing status on the SGX-ST, and added that it currently has no plans to introduce any major changes to SAR’s business, redeploy its fixed assets, or discontinue the employment of its employees. As such, the takeover offer will probably result in a change of SAR’s effective ownership with no major changes to the group’s strategy or management.

Good dividends and earnings prospects provide little incentive to accept offer. SAR’s shareholders may reap better returns in the long term by holding on to their shares, given the group’s generous dividends and robust outlook. SAR’s dividends yielded a generous 11.5% return in FY08, and we expect FY09 yield to increase to 17.8% on the back of higher earnings. Earnings are expected to more than double in FY09 thanks to higher coal prices secured during the commodity boom in 2008.

Sound fundamentals, maintain BUY. PTT’s takeover offer puts an end to months of speculation over SAR’s privatisation. It also rules out any acquisition by Noble Group Ltd (previously reported to be one of the interested bidders) or other strategic investors in the near term. We maintain our BUY rating and S$1.15 fair value estimate for SAR and do not expect PPT to raise its offer price. As for Noble, our BUY rating and S$1.33 fair value estimate remains intact.  

u are right...what do u thk it the reason?

then what do you thk is the market pricing this at 1.3??

so if PPT dont buy does this means the counter are fundamental lousy.

pray tell me, i am learning.