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Ferrochina
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Livermore
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09-Aug-2007 11:07
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Look at the BIG PICTURE ahead not the small tiny pixel you see........ |
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hfchang
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09-Aug-2007 10:26
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I just don't understand why people tend to look at a single negative report, but have totally ignore 4 other positive reports... Daiwa - $3.42 UOB Kay Hian $2.90 DBS - $3.46 JP Morgan - $3.35 CIMB - $2.51 All these are not small little brokerage house.... If you can't decide what to do, take a simple mathematical calculation on all of them... you will be able to cover all angles on what will be the outlook for Ferrochina. Average (3.42, 2.9, 3.46, 3.35, 2.51)= Target price of $3.128 Therefore, a strong buy call... |
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Livermore
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09-Aug-2007 02:02
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Here are FerroChina result from its presentation slides: 1. First half revenue increased by 27.8% 2. Second quarter revenue increased by 14% 3.Second quarter net profit down 37.1% 4. First half net profit down 8.3% |
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amateur99
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08-Aug-2007 19:36
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EastonBay, below is the CIMB report yesterday.. FerroChina (S$2.23) - 2QFY07 results - Production delays and higher costs Below expectations. annualised consensus and our estimates, due to lower revenue (down 10.6% qoq as commercial production of its upgraded first galvanising line was delayed), higher freight costs, reduced export rebates and higher financial expenses related to the its RCPS. 1H07 net profit was 29% of our full-year estimate of S$541.2m.2Q07 net profit of Rmb74.1m (-37.1% yoy) was below 2Q revenue rose 14% yoy but fell 10.6% qoq, first galvanising line was delayed. Part of the line had to undergo further adjustments while awaiting the delivery of new equipment. Commercial production is expected only in 3Q with full contributions in 4Q. Meanwhile, gross margins remained relatively constant at 9.3%.as the planned ramp of its upgraded Expense review. the deadline for export rebate reductions. But the situation has eased since. Higher financial expenses in 2Q are expected to fall as the majority of RCPS holders have converted. There would also be one-off rebates in 3Q on HRC purchases in 2Q which could be positive for margins.2Q freight costs rose dramatically as steel producers rushed to beat Completion of Superb Team acquisition targeted for Oct 07. disclosed that the Superb Team exercise is awaiting the necessary regulatory approvals and is expected to be completed in Oct 07. Meanwhile, consolidated group capacity is on track to hit 2.3m mt by end-FY07 and 3.5m mt by end-FY08.Management Planning for contingencies. value-added steel exports, management is cognizant of the possibility of export quotas and duties that can be implemented overnight without prior warning. We understand that management has been actively seeking suitable new manufacturing sites in the region. We suspect it could be looking at countries such as Vietnam, which offers low costs and high literacy.Given the Chinese government?s policy of restricting low Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform. and 30% for FY07-08 respectively after factoring in delays in production capacity, higher costs and the expected completion of the Superb Team acquisition in 4Q. Our target price of S$2.51 has been cut from S$3.10 following our earnings downgrade, still based on 9x CY08 P/E. As potential upside is expected to track that of the market, we downgrade the stock to Neutral.We have reduced our forecasts by 56% |
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Livermore
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08-Aug-2007 12:33
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Read the presentation slides available online very carefully. Revenue did not decrease but increased. If you read their report, you will know why result was "not within" expectation. From reading their report, you can make a guess how their results will be in the third quater and in the future. I don't really look at target price but this morning I received 4 or 5 reports on FerroChina and the lowest target price was $2.51. The other targte prices were way above this. |
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EastonBay
Master |
08-Aug-2007 09:09
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Just found this from SGX web. They might get a lot of questions on why the px spiralled down so much yesterday. The Board of Directors of FerroChina Limited is pleased to announce the setting up of an online Q&A at Shareinvestor.com today in conjunction with their The management will take questions from investors on the forum from now till 14th August (Tuesday) and will reply on 21st August (Tuesday). All investors are welcomed to participate in the online Q&A. Investors may now post questions to the management at: 1H FY2007 results announcement. http://www.listedcompany.com/ir/ferrochina/web/qa.cgi |
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EastonBay
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08-Aug-2007 08:47
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amateur, "lowering target price from 3.10 to 2.51 due to lower revenue. "... that's a little wrong. In fact Ferrorchina's revenue increased. Rev grewed 14% yoy. It's the profit margin that has lowered due to the fall in price of galvanised steel price (what they sell) and larger proportion of outsourced production as they could not meet all the demand. Besides, A&G expenses is also higher. Livermore, correct me if I'm wrong. Thanks. |
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Livermore
Master |
08-Aug-2007 07:35
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Watch this stock 5 years from now. Sometimes attending result briefing is quite different from reading reports in the news. You get a feel of where the company is heading in the future. After reading their presentation material, it is quite obvious why results so called came "below expectations". As someone once said, "operating cash flow" is the heart of the company. |
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punter2006
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07-Aug-2007 20:19
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No More Ferro left,...this is bad considering the price down everyday...today is getting out of hand, I think it had hit a strong wall, sinking real fast, very soon will touch 1.90....sad... |
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amateur99
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07-Aug-2007 17:47
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CIMB downgrade from outperformed to normal and lowering target price from 3.10 to 2.51 due to lower revenue. |
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Livermore
Master |
13-Jul-2007 12:33
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FerrooooooooCHINA!!! Hold forever.... |
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Livermore
Master |
11-Jul-2007 07:41
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Hi EastonBay, We are looking at Asia being the centre of world economic growth. I see much more benefit in holding for the long term despite market having moved up a lot. Focus on your individual stocks and not so much on the STI though if STI drops by say 70 - 80 points, everything goes down as well. |
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EastonBay
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11-Jul-2007 00:00
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Livermore, thanks for your wisdom and sharing... your stock A happened to be my COSCO. Sold yesterday when I finally broker 4+ (at 4.12) in the morning, only to find out that it closed at 4.26 yesterday and 4.38 today!!!! I sold because I wanted to pull back some capital. Luckily I still have some more COSCO left. Won't sell the remaining until the company 'cannot grow significantly". Thanks! |
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Livermore
Master |
10-Jul-2007 20:37
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I just wish to find stocks which I see value in the long term rather always buy sell buy sell (big headache) . You sell one share and then you have to look for another and looking for another good stock is not that easy. Sometimes when you just sold stock A to "realise" your profit, you start looking for another stock. Before you know it, stock A continues to rise. I used to a trader just like most of us here. When I lost out on so much gain being a trader, I decided to change my style of investment to one of long term. It might not be so easy making good profits by trading as it is hard to concentrate when you put in big positions and when you are working. When you a full time trader, things are different. You can make much more profit by just holding then "going in and out" so many times........ |
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Livermore
Master |
10-Jul-2007 20:25
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If I think the companies cannot grow significantly, I could hold if it becomes a dividend stock and collect dividends or sell and put my money in a a new fast growing company. If the company's future going forward is not so bright and the stock is expensive, I could sell. I am currently not holding any "trading stocks". For oil related stocks, I shall hold "forever"........... |
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EastonBay
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09-Jul-2007 23:14
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Livermore, I believe in taking a long term view for fundamentally sound stocks and have benefitted by holding without TP e.g. SGX. have two questions though. Does it mean you'd never sell your counters? When will you consider selling those stocks and what criteria? For myself: I hold 2 category of stocks. one as mentioned above, hold forever and collect dividend (the absolute value of dividend grows years after years because of the price appreciation. As a percentage of my initial investment, it's FAT!) Second catogory: trading stocks which I hold for 3-12 months. |
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Livermore
Master |
09-Jul-2007 21:12
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Cheers EastonBay! To share with all, try not to focus so much on target price. If you believe in the long term growth of the company, just buy and HOLD....... |
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EastonBay
Master |
09-Jul-2007 17:17
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Livermore is one very very happy man...  Ferrrooochinnnna! (me not vested, unfortunately)
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97399739
Member |
09-Jul-2007 16:59
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6 July 2007; DBS Group Research Target Price for Swiber - $3.48 Swiber now trading at $3.00 9 July 2007; DBS Group Research Target Price for Ferrochina - $3.46 Will Ferrochina hit $3.00 in the next few day? |
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97399739
Member |
09-Jul-2007 15:03
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DBS Group Research Target Price - $3.46 |
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