Last Updated : 12 September 2012 at 07:35 IST

‘Gold underpinned by buying from two of three main camps’

Source :Commodity Online

  The first category of gold buyers is mainly responsible for pushing prices higher aggressively while the third category takes the other extreme wherein they tend to come in and support the market on dips.

NEW YORK (Commodity Online):  Gold lately has been underpinned by buying from two of the three main camps, said Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) in a commodity research note.

There has been buying from the speculative community and from what the bank refers to as ‘quality’ buyers such as exchange-traded funds and the official sector.

However, physical buying has been lacking, with U.S. August coin demand below the same period a year ago and Indian demand still hurt by high gold prices in rupee terms.

“The first category of buyers is mainly responsible for pushing prices higher aggressively while the third category takes the other extreme wherein they tend to come in and support the market on dips,” the Zurich based bank added.

“The second category somewhat takes the middle ground--buyers in this bucket can push prices higher (typically ETFs) and/or help provide a price floor (usually the official sector). With buying from two of the three main camps, we do think that the current gold strength has credibility and further upside,” UBS said.

“But we still reserve a small degree of cautiousness for its longevity given the third component is missing and question how long the likely QE (quantitative easing) impact persists,” the Swiss bank concluded. 

Closing Gold & Silver Market Report – 9/11/2012

UBS sees gold leaping to $1,850 within a month

Gold Nears Objective from August Breakout

Daily Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Gold is nearing the objective defined from its breakout in late August. To review, “The alternate gold count was confirmed today with the trade above 1640.80. Using the triangle measuring technique…objectives for gold are 1703.56 and 1754.26.” The former was reached and exceeded but the latter level is in line with the 1760 area, which served as a pivot in December 2011 and February 2012. Expect a reaction above 1750.

LEVELS: 1705 1714 1723 1750 1761 1790

Closing Gold & Silver Market Report, 9/10/2012

Mid-Day Gold & Silver Market Report – 9/10/2012

Last Updated : 10 September 2012 at 10:35 IST

'Gold likely pricing in more monetary stimulus this week'

Source :Commodity Online

  Bad jobs news is good news for gold as stimulus is apparently the possible outcome this week.

  NEW YORK (Commodity Online):  Friday’s lower-than-expected United States payrolls report is giving gold a boost but yellow metal market are likely to pricing in more monetary stimulus this week, said George Gero, vice president of global futures at RBC Capital Markets and precious metals strategist.

“Bad jobs news is good news for gold as stimulus is apparently the possible outcome this week, with bonds moving up in price with the euro hitting higher levels referring to this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting where some sort of monetary stimulus is increasingly being expected by market participants,” Gero added.

“Gero points out that open interest in the last 12 sessions on Comex moved to roughly 444,000 from roughly 386,000 contracts. It turns out the funds were right,” he continued.

“Open interest counts the number of active trading positions in the market. The options open interest also increased to over 1.2 million. The bears are really on the defensive,” he noted.

“If open interest continues to rise, particularly in the far distant contracts such as June 2013 contracts then we have less weak holders as well,” Gero concluded.

Last Updated : 10 September 2012 at 20:50 IST

Jim Rogers: End of Bull Market in Commodities long way away

Source :CNBC.com

 

  “These guys have been saying the same old garbage for a long time. It’s not a game-changer – it’s(ECB bond-buying program) good for the market for maybe a month. The debt keeps going higher and higher and eventually we’ll all going to pay a terrible price.”

 

  Commodity Online

While Carl Weinberg, chief economist, High Frequency Economics argues that the European Central Bank proposed Outright Monetary Transactions or OMT is something of such a small scale that it would not affect commodity markets in a big way, Jim Rogers has approved of it.

“Rogers, famed as a long-term commodities bull, said there was no reason to correct this stance.”  CNBC.com  reported.

“The bull market in commodities will end someday – but some day is a long way away,” Rogers was quoted by the CNBC as saying.

“Commodities have been correcting for a while. Now everybody knows they’re throwing money into the market, and history tells you that when they do this the way to protect yourself is to own real assets whether it’s silver or rice. If the world economy gets better, I own commodities because there’s shortages developing. If it doesn’t they’re (central banks) all going to print money. It’s the wrong thing to do, but it’s all they know to do.” CNBC.com quoted further.

According to him, the markets would pay a terrible price irrespective of the ECB bond-buying program:

“These guys have been saying the same old garbage for a long time. It’s not a game-changer – it’s good for the market for maybe a month. The debt keeps going higher and higher and eventually we’ll all going to pay a terrible price.”

The market rally that is staged now would only be a short-term phenomenon, according to him.

“It’s not an opportunity to make money for me. This is not good for the market and it’s not going to last. Every three or four months they (euro zone politicians) have a summit and they say: Ok guys, everything is ok now. The market goes up. But we’re getting a little tired of this and the market is getting a little tired of this,”  Rogers argued in CNBC on Monday.

The “Bond King” - Buy Gold, Not Bonds

When central banks starts writing checks & printing money in the trillions of dollars, it's best to have tangible gold. Read More

 

Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 9/10/2012

Gold And Silver Are Breaking Out - Are You Ready For New All Time Highs In These Metals?

The target for this pattern is to a ratio of 0.385 or over 50% higher, which would bring Silver back close to $50 Read More

Last Updated : 07 September 2012 at 20:55 IST

US Labour data and the birth of QE3 Gold bull

Source :etf securities

The US needs employment growth of 100,000 just to maintain “stability” in the job market. The indication from the recent Fed statements and speeches is that consistent non-farm payroll numbers below 150,000 are likely to trigger another round of QE. 

 

Commodity Online
With “operation twist” coming to an end in the next few months, US employment data indicating a stagnating US labour market and Europe’s politicians still far from a comprehensive solution to the region’s problems, the likelihood of another round of US quantitative easing is increasing, a report from ETF Securities indicated.

US employment and growth data have become key barometers of the likelihood of further Fed easing as the Fed has made clear that with inflation now under control, its focus is increasingly skewed towards the second objective of its double mandate - job creation.

The US needs employment growth of 100,000 just to maintain “stability” in the job market. The indication from the recent Fed statements and speeches is that consistent non-farm payroll numbers below 150,000 are likely to trigger another round of QE.

Labour Department data for Friday said US Nonfarm payrolls increased only 96,000 last month as against an expected rise of 125,000. The unemployment rate declined to 8.1 percent from 8.3 percent, but the drop is largely attributed to people giving up looking for work.

If non-farm payrolls and other growth indicators such as the monthly ISM manufacturing surveys do not start to show substantial and sustainable improvement, a new round of QE seems increasingly likely. With some form of QE3 getting closer and Europe financial and sovereign risks still high, there are good reasons to believe the gold price has the potential to move higher in the coming months.

While the rising expectation of another round of QE3 is the most likely catalyst for the next leg of the gold bull market, the lower probability, but high impact risk of a full-blown Euro crisis could also be a catalyst for the gold price to break higher.

Key dates to watch:  Chinese industrial production data on 9 September, the German constitutional court ruling on ESM on 12 September, the U.S. FOMC monetary policy announcements on 13 September and the Eurogroup's decision on Spanish debt purchase on 15 September. 

Closing Gold & Silver Market Report – 9/7/2012