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keppel Corp
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elfinchilde
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04-Jan-2007 20:48
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keke, giantlow, i presume you, like me, learnt that through experience eh? ;) btw, i noticed a gandalf somewhere. wonder if we can induce him/her to join the Fellowship. haha. :P |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
04-Jan-2007 20:45
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brandon, you sound like an expert. I'll be listening closely to you from now on. still very impressed by your genting trade. :) agree with you and singaporegal abt market sensitivity. Expecting the DOW/STI to drop further tonight/tomorrow. Market's overbought and a lot have taken, or are waiting to take profit. Also, from what i know, at least one category of the big boys have completed (or will tmrw complete) their final sells, and will then be sitting out the market. So might be a bleed tomorrow and week aft. Only hope the small retail investors don't get caught. Elf has locked in profits and divested the last of her trading positions today already. Good luck to those still vested. :) |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
04-Jan-2007 20:33
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yep. it means people are perking up to sell. TA and FA both don't look good. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
04-Jan-2007 20:32
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yes. giantlow. if you are able to, short genting tomorrow. but do it as a day trade (mustn't be too greedy). dang. mebbe i should open a margin acct. hehe. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
04-Jan-2007 17:47
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hi febregas, TA = technical analysis. ie, using all those charts and indicators (like chaikin oscillator, accumulation/distribution, RSI, MACD) to try and predict the movement of a stock based on its trend. It's more of a mathematical picture of a stock. FA= financial analysis. ie, prediction of a stock performance based more on its actual fundamentals--like its net tangible assets (NTA), net asset value (NAV) etc. But there's a fine line between the two, really. note that sometimes FA and TA will clash, in which case, you need to decide buy or sell. margin--i'm assuming you mean margin accounts? if so, they're what let you leverage a greater amt to invest in, and to short counters. If you mean margin of profit (haha), then it's entirely what you're comfortable with when selling or buying a stock. :) how to do TA: read singaporegal's article on the home pg. Also, the research section in sharejunction; they'll give you a good initial guide. the rest can be picked up from courses, books or plain ol' experience. good luck! btw, don't get caught up in current sentiment. Always make your own mind up. :) |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
04-Jan-2007 15:32
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hm...ok ipunter...for me this was not really a TA call but a FA (or tarot, if you wanna call it that since it's more sentiment i'm reading). I divested in 1st few mins yesterday at 1.45, even tho charts read upward trend. look at the volumes: they're very erratic. Large vols on some days. there's some manipulation. initially expected the drop to 1.39 but i'm thinking to previous levels now; prob 1.32-1.33. could prob go in then for long term divvy play. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
04-Jan-2007 15:17
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whee...ipunter's back! missed ya. :) nope, no professional. just a 'beginner' like bunbun. Just trying to make a living. haha. wanna hit financial independence by 35... |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
04-Jan-2007 15:14
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arghh...i was soo tempted to short this counter...but i don't have a margin account. dang. haha. congrats brandonharrist, excellent trade, hats off to you man! |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
04-Jan-2007 14:50
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hm...jackjames, relax. can still go down a bit more...plus, vols are low. for whatever reason, it doesn't appear to be on the watchlist of the big boys, at least, not yet. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
04-Jan-2007 14:47
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hm...in reply to ipunter's post: i believe in taking profit when you're comfortable with the profit level, rather than waiting for some recommended target to be hit. i'm more of a psychological analyst; if i can suss out the FA reason behind the TA trend, i'll move accordingly. If i believe levels are unsustainable, i'd out, even if the market appears to be moving up. (since it could very well crash the moment your eyes move away from the screen) 'cos if you look at it long term, that you'll be in the market for the next 25, 30, 40 years, then really, be it short or long term holdings, what's the rush? For me, i prefer small consistent profits per trade, rather than a few spectacular sizzles (which may very well end up as fizzles haha). so yea bunbun, for me, it's greed i havta control too. :) |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
04-Jan-2007 14:26
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if i may combine bunbun's and giantlow's posts: the 'compulsion' to trade actually comes from greed, or herd instinct. that you see everyone making profit, so you rush to join in since you want to make it too. that's why it's so hard to get out, i guess. which is why we tend to cling to our losers in vain hope. and giantlow, there was some other post somewhere abt the PE ratio (can't find it): what i meant was target price: 'cos most target price is calculated based on PE ratio, NAV etc. mathematically that's fine, but if you think about the _idea_ of it, how are such ratios and premiums derived, but from sentiment? I mean, why does the construction industry have one ratio, and others have others? in that sense, sometimes, i think FA is just an extrapolation of TA, a prediction. which is why, i think one common mistake investors make is to look at 'target price, recommended: BUY' and just jump in. dunno, what do the ppl here think? btw, thanks for that correction abt PE ratio, much appreciated. and yes, always feel free to disagree, that's how we learn. :) |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
04-Jan-2007 14:17
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hey punter, glad to see you back too! :) himalayans? wow. market-wise, timing's gonna be everything now. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
03-Jan-2007 22:47
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oops..apologies for the repeated post; comp hung and didn't know if msg got through so i refreshed the page. advances vs declines was higher yea, but unchanged was quite significant too. SPC...relax la...don't think it's hit bottom yet. some change coming tho. will be watching this counter. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
03-Jan-2007 22:44
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hahaha, yes giantlow, good advice! will definitely be heeded by this elf. :) the charts are actually favourable, but when you look at the insane vols, and the RSI/Williams (the latter's more accurate act, since it's a trending market), i'm smelling manipulation and irrational exuberance all over the market. but heh, mebbe i'm just a coward. :) |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
03-Jan-2007 22:37
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i actually locked in most of my profits in nov 'cos was going for long hols (and didn't trust market haha); so holding only a few trading positions now. just divested ho bee (bought 1.28, sold 1.45). left allco reits and macqinf. might keep the latter as long term counter though; has good divvy yield. Plus, it hasn't made its run yet, tho its TA is wishy-washy. how abt you, if you don't mind sharing? |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
03-Jan-2007 22:32
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i actually locked in most of my profits in nov 'cos was going for long hols (and didn't trust market haha); so holding only a few trading positions now. just divested ho bee (bought 1.28, sold 1.45). left allco reits and macqinf. might keep the latter as long term counter though; has good divvy yield. Plus, it hasn't made its run yet, tho its TA is wishy-washy. how abt you, if you don't mind sharing? |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
03-Jan-2007 22:25
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hm yea...me too.. that was what i meant when i asked when the bull will stop running, btw. questions over its sustainability. thinking of divesting all holdings (the trading ones) act. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
03-Jan-2007 22:14
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em...singaporegal...am i reading rightly, or is the market _too_ high? the vols are a little troubling....too suddenly high for my liking.. would any other experts like to comment? :) |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
03-Jan-2007 19:28
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heh heh. pikachu, that's why FA has the EPS (or PE) ratio. I mean, imagine it, if a co has a PE ratio of 5x, what that means is that if the co's actual value is 20c, you pay $1 for it. Now the qn is, would you in real life pay $1000 for something htat's only worth $200? so to me, the 80c extra is sentiment. which is why, i trust TA more, personally. student....hm...sometimes, 'normal' behaviour kills.. haha. i mean, if i were to extend the metaphor from ipunter (where's he, btw...), if the stock market is a beast, then investors must necessarily take one of two positions: hunter, or hunted. To be the latter requires only herd mentality. But of course, we can't always stay on the sidelines. hehe. join in, yes, but gotta know when to cash out, accord to your risk appetite. :) good luck to all vested! |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
03-Jan-2007 19:20
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hmm...something related to the topic qn, perhaps another big boy that retail investors might like to watch out for: private equity/hedge funds. these are the new kids on the block, but they're flush with money and they move fast. Things to note about them: 1)Lots of liquid cash 2)they're looking to invest in asia 3) they regard SEA as one entity. the last is impt, since most of these fund managers can't differentiate s'pore from malaysia or thailand, for instance. What this implies is Chaos Theory in action--a butterfly flapping its wings in New York creates a storm in Shanghai. Or in local context: bird flu breaks out in Vietnam causes a stock market collapse in s'pore. You cannot track their movements save by TA volume/related charts, since they're not answerable to legal authorities here (to the best of my knowledge). Gotta watch out for these big boys in 2007. |
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