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Courage Marine--- A courageous play
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BullRun
Elite |
09-Jun-2006 22:47
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shplayer, don't need to get so excited by tracking the day to day BDI. It need at least to hit 3000 before CM can have better performance for Q3. |
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shplayer
Elite |
09-Jun-2006 15:13
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BDI today 2631 vs 2599 yest...looking strong. |
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BullRun
Elite |
09-Jun-2006 10:39
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rogue_trader, Agreed!! Anything is possible in stock market but we should be realistic in our expectation. Just like GMG that moved up from 2c to 7.5c recently. How u define a good and bad stocks? To me CM is a good stock now if the price is 10c, an average stock at 14c and a bad stock if it is trading at 20c! Do u know why UniFiber and Hi-P PE are at extremely high?? Do u know why ppl willing to pay 6c for GMG?? I aslo only predict and not meant to offend any people, I posted just to share my views and ask for comments! I based on facts and information available to make my forecast and it will definitely be a lot better than imagination and hopes!! |
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rogue_trader
Master |
09-Jun-2006 09:44
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Hi BullRun, Maybe it will be a dream for CM to hit $0.24 a year from now, but nothing is impossible if the big boys want to push this up right? Like what I had mentioned somewhere is this forum, all this is irrational investor sentiments. Does good stocks really go up or bad stocks go down? Take a look at UniFiber and Hi-P. Their PE is extreme high. But they can hit a high price that people thought it was a dream too. For me, I only predict and no meant to offend any people in this forum. But if you think you will be spot-on for CM, you are coz I am not a 100% accurate stock analyser, I just said what I felt, saw or read... Have a nice day. Hopefully STI can go into greener pastures today.. |
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BullRun
Elite |
08-Jun-2006 22:04
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see 3 to 5 years ahead when investing in stock market, u are not play future here! In stock market, look for capital again and not dividen. It is amazing to think that dividen for 07 will be the same as 06 since profit for CM drop like crazy. Imagine some one bought the share at 21c and today trading at 15c. That is around 25% losses already...so have to wait 3 or more years to collect dividen to cover up the losses!! Asked so many questions and all avoid to answer.....I stick to my forecast, CM price will continue to drop. 24c in 1 years time will be a dream....unless DBI index move like the Natural Rubber index. Don't follow blindly, if u really like to track DBI index day by day then I suggest u look at the rubber index instead...recorder high again today!! PPl see that already make tons of money and will make more while u looking at the DBI that is not moving and largly showing Down Trend! |
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shplayer
Elite |
08-Jun-2006 14:36
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BDI is now 2599. |
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joekoh
Member |
08-Jun-2006 13:34
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For 2006, the dividend for Couragemarine was $20.80 per 1000 shares. It should be about the same for 2007. Rogue_trader is right - use spare cash for dividend gain. Oil price will not remain high forever to adversely affect freight rate. Remember, the saying, "the early bird catches its worm" |
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rogue_trader
Master |
08-Jun-2006 13:21
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I predict CM will go up during Oct - Nov, but go up from what pricing must see how many supporters for this counter. If look from another side of view, can treat this counter as an instrument to park spare cash for the dividends. CM got few ships only, so profits or losses minimum. But management team over at CM quite good (as of now). And if there a fair level of support, my prediction for this counter in 1 year time from now should be around $0.24. No vested interest as currently suffering from baby-sitter syndrome. |
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BullRun
Elite |
06-Jun-2006 22:03
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shplayer, No. I disagree, unless you look at day to day variations. If you can even see what can happen to a company in the next 6 to 12 months, u better don't put your money there!! Agreed that everyone has different strategies, preferences and methods to read the market and this is why some ppl lose BIG and some ppl make good profit! Parameters we look at should be the same when looking at the same company. For example, do u think CM can still enjoy a freigth rate of 16% above market rate? Can CM maintain 90% loaded when there are ample spare capacity going around? Is DBI able to move up in the short term as China economy cool down? Can CM vessesls still be operational by the time DBI moved to a higher level or do they need to be send for scrap (most of their vessels are already very old)? All these parameters should be looked!! I still hold my view that CM share price will only continue to weaken over the next 2Q especially after Q3 result is out. |
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shplayer
Elite |
06-Jun-2006 20:53
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Bullrun, I think you will agree with me that the only thing certain about the market is uncertainty. All players/investors in the mkt has one common goal...To make money. Everyone has different strategies, preferences and methods to read the market trends to achieve their goal of making money.....which may be different from yours or mine. As long as they make informed decisions when they commit themselves financially, I think they should come out better most of the time. If they come out better off with decision based on parameters different or even contrary to mine, I am glad for them ....perhaps there is something I can learn from it. Afterall, we are all in the same boat..i.e. to make money....isn't what this is all about. Having said that, I still hold my views expressed in my earlier threads...and I suppose you too... as it is still too early for the outcome to be determined.....CM is still on my radar screen..... |
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BullRun
Elite |
06-Jun-2006 18:19
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The Key point that I wanted to bring across here is that CM price will not move much since it had already drop to 14.5c now. As I mentioned earlier, I expect the price to continue drift downwards nearer to Q3. Many questions the I brought up was not answer.....can CM still enjoy freight rate that is 16% about market rate for Q2 and beyond?? Will CM continue to enjoy 90% usage rate for thier vessels?? How is the high oil price going to affect CM??...many many other more!!! |
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shplayer
Elite |
06-Jun-2006 16:42
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Despite the market gyrations and general downtrend of the past week CM price have held its ground and actually gone up to 15cts. BDI has recently trended above 2500. Well done waterfish, guestship and yonger!!!!! |
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BullRun
Elite |
01-Jun-2006 19:25
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rougue_trader...agreed, price might not have any big movements for the time being, it will onlt continue to drift lower very slowly...much slower than the rest of the China stocks. guestship....agreed, this counter is only suitable for long term. Don't invest if you don't have money to hold long long term! Why hold long term where there are many better opportunties around? |
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guestship
Member |
01-Jun-2006 19:06
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I have made some investment today for long term... |
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rogue_trader
Master |
01-Jun-2006 17:53
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Not for contra players, pricing might not have any big movements for the time being. |
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yonger
Member |
01-Jun-2006 09:26
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buying......now... |
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BullRun
Elite |
30-May-2006 22:38
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shplayer, I not vested either. Let not comare courage with NOL. They are in different business sector. There are better company list in sgx for you to do your comparsion. You can find out more about the management from the annula report or prospectus. Look at which companies they work for in the last 20 over years and then find out what happen to those companies and you will know their capability better! DBI only tell half of the story. As I mentioned earlier, can CM still manage to secure freight rate that is 16% higher than market rate? Also, can their vessels remain untilised for 90% of the time as in Q1? What will happen if freight rate remain at lower leve for the next few years instead of months? Their ships are old and may not have time to wait for the next upturn in freight rate!! So, I would really like to wait for another 6 months to see how well they can ride through the bad time! |
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shplayer
Elite |
30-May-2006 21:28
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Bullrun, I am not invested in CM at this point in time. I did buy some when they annonced their FY2005 results and exited before XD...and made some beer $$ from it. However, what attracted me to CM is their business model. Yes, older ships require more repairs and maintenance but this seems to be under control with their ability to source second hand spares from scrap yards in Taiwan and China. This is certainly reflected in their Cost of Sales for 1Q 06.....26% increase YoY but with, I believe. 3 more vessles (33% more). Also gross profit is still a healthy 49% despite higher fuel costs..compare with NOL GP of 18% for the same period.. Also, if you look at the Admin expenses and non operating expenses, this has decreased YoY despite additional ships => good cost control.Net profit is a healthy 42% of revenue..... Yes, I do not know too much about the mgmt except from published material...apprec your inputs if you have more insights in this area. Like you, I do not think it is the right time to get in now....to give more time to monitor DBI and to assess mgmt performance.....and that its is better to wait till the 3Q result is out.....but I will not be too adverse to 'bottom fishing' if/when oppotunity arises. But, certainly, at this time, CM remains on my radar screen. As to whether I think CM should invest in more ships, I think the mgmt should be able to assess if they need to increase capacity to meet customer demands. At this time, they do not seem to be in a great hurry to invest their cash. |
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BullRun
Elite |
30-May-2006 19:36
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shplayer, serously do you think CM should invest the cash to buy more ship when the DBI is heading downward with no sign of recovery?? In fact, in situation like this, it may be wise for them to scrap some of their older ships to reduce maintainance cost. Be careful when u look at CM result. Their freigth rate only drop 30% instead of 46% that the DBI had experienced in Q1. Will they be able to maintian this rate when the current contract expire?? So even if DBI maintain at current level, CM may still face additional margin pressure. Yes, teh 4 key management have an accumulated experience of more than 110 years. Do some research to understand them better. It seemed to me that U don't know them enough! Closed 14c today. I predited 14c few weeks back and ppl think I'm crazy. My guess is that THE WORST IS YET TO COME! |
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shplayer
Elite |
30-May-2006 13:34
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Waterfish, Good luck.....monitor the DBI, bear in mind Co. has lots of cash to buy ships....and their model of buying old 20-25 years ships for cheap is a sound model which has worked for them. When new ships come into the mkt, creatiing excess capacity, ship owners will try to reduce their fleet and sell their older vessels. This will be an opportunity for CM to buy them cheap. Also, take heart that DBI, although it has plunged from 2004/5, is still @ about 2400-2500. Over the past 10 years, except for 2004/5 peak, DBI seldom breached the 2000 level. Also, top 4 key management have an accumulated experience of more than 110 years, unlike some other shipping Cos which is a golden parachute for sidelined politicians. |
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