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Yong nam
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wiseguy1269
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12-Aug-2013 07:55
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Go do your research.... Yongnam does have a presence both regionally and globally. I am not going to spoon feed you.
And it is changing from being purely projects based to being an infrastructure player :) |
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wiseguy1269
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12-Aug-2013 07:30
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You guys are newbies or what?
Yongnam's current price already overfactored a no win scenario. Why did you think the price fell from 35cts all the way down to 29cts in the first place? To hope for 24.5cts is just unrealistic thinking. Remember, the reason why Yongnam's price was at 24.5cts was due to the huge warrants overhang which expired in mid dec 2012. I agree that without the myanmar contract, Yongnam is well placed to look for better opportunities with less risk, just like Singtel. |
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EddieLeong
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11-Aug-2013 23:17
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Yongnam will come back up from the lost of contract. As it already negotiate some project on hands. Given now that the airport contract it gone. It can focus more of the construction of MRT lines as well as bid for the train line along Malaysia For the meantime I agree with Rosesyrup that entry below 24.5 (if it ever hit) will be very attractive. |
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Rosesyrup
Veteran |
11-Aug-2013 20:07
Yells: "Get your own opinion, don't follow blindly." |
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Not true. No one has a perfect knowledge of Yongnam's probability of winning the Myanmar contract. Thus some might overweighed the probability and invested more than what he intended if he had known of the true probability. Simply put, without full knowledge of the probability, he took more risk than he intended to.
Furthermore, Yongnam's case is very different from Singtel. For Singtel, the failure to secure Myanmar contract is a blessing in disguise as the contract would required Singtel to outlay huge capital and time but expose Singtel to a very high risk of zero returns. Thus when the announcement of the bidding result was out, SingTel's share price first dive but quickly recovered and closed with respectable gains. Yoma's case is pretty much the direct contrast of Singtel. After the announcement Yoma's share price went straight down, any attempt to recover was dismissed. The reason: The loss of contract simply mean a loss of future revenue to Yoma, there is no blessing in disguise since Yoma's main operation remained in Myanmar regardless of the contract. I expect Yongnam's share price to behave more like Yoma than Singtel, though with very different reason. Without the Myanmar's lucrative contract, Yongnam loses the chance to diversify away risk of shake out in Singapore construction industry. Thus I expect Yongnam's to now be valued at 27.5cents and I advice against entry above 24.5cents so as to provide a 10% buffer range. The stock is expected to trade within this range (1) during most of the shake out period or (2) until there are new contracts*** which provide Yongnam with an opportunity to diversify away risk in Singapore, whichever is sooner. ***Such contracts would have to be lucrative enough- form a major part of Yongnam revenue. Small contracts make no difference. |
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Bigmama
Master |
11-Aug-2013 16:16
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In the first place, I think it is known tha yongnam has little chance of winning the bid. Maybe a good thing that It did not get it just like Singtel and yoma. | ||
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warrenbegger
Elite |
11-Aug-2013 14:23
Yells: "Anyhow Buy Anyhow Die ^_^" |
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1st card- 5 (-5.1m) 2nd card- 6 (2Q so so) 3rd card- 4 (Myanmar deal lost) 4rd card- ? U guess what the next card for blackjack 21 (Next week how? triple lost effect?? Will fund run off???) 5+6+4+ ? = 21??? The odds very poor now... A bit lost hope after so much hopes... Wish u all safe :) |
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dingbat
Senior |
10-Aug-2013 22:49
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LOL. Singaporean firms get no break when it comes to Myanmar despite all the posturing and diplomatic backing our gahmen has shown to them in the UN. The score so far-- Yoma, Singtel, Yongnam , 0 for 3 deals clinched-- epic fail. Wily Burmese junta laughing all the way to the banks. |
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tanglinboy
Elite |
10-Aug-2013 15:00
Yells: "hello!" |
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Thanks for sharing | ||
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Atom99
Member |
10-Aug-2013 14:58
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Anouncement of the award of tender for Myanamr Airport projects are as follows: 1) Yangon International Airport - Pioner Aerodrome Services consortium ( Backup- Yongnam consortium -- I would take it as if Pioneer Aerodrome Services did not take up the offer or for other reasons not able to fulfill its req't then Yongnam would be next in line to take over) 2) Hanthawaddy Int'l Airport - Incheon Airport consortium ( All Korea company) ( Backup - Yongnam ) 3) Mandalay Int'l Airport - Mitsbishi - Jalux consortium |
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bottega
Member |
07-Aug-2013 15:59
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Yongnam Holdings (YNH SP) BUY Price/Target: S$0.31/S$0.45 Market Cap: S$392.8m Earnings hit by one-off provisions Analyst: Brandon Ng Tel: +65 65906615 What’s New · Yongnam Holdings (Yongnam) reported a 28.6% yoy decline in net profit to S$8.6m for 2Q13, mainly due to a one-off provision of S$5.1m for the quarter. The company had to recognise this provision as one of its clients, Alpine Bau GmbH, the main contractor for MRT Downtown Line 2, had became insolvent in the quarter. Excluding this, net profit would have risen 13.3%yoy to S$13.7m. · Revenue grew 47.5% yoy to S$115.1m as the company recognised revenue from ongoing projects such as Singapore Sports Hub, National Art Gallery and Suntec City Convention Centre. Gross profit increased 8.9% yoy to S$22.4m but gross margins fell to 19.4% in the quarter as compared with 26.3% in 2Q12, as the company booked more contributions from the lower margin structural steel works segment. · Management highlighted that Yongnam may not be able to collect the S$5.1m legally from the insolvent Alpine Bau GmbH but is working with the Land Transport Authority (LTA) on the next best course of action. Currently, there are six contractors bidding for this Downtown Line project. Outlook · Management remains optimistic that the construction projects pipeline remains healthy and that there are currently about S$1.32b worth of contracts up for grab in 2H13. The LTA has also started awarding main contractors for the construction of Thomson Line projects with Samsung C&T Corporation winning the contract for a sum of $285m, and Shanghai Tunnel Engineering Co. Ltd for a contract sum of approximately $421m. Orderbook for Yongnam stood at S$266.0m as at 30 Jun 13, of which 44% is expected to complete in 2013. · As for the potential contract on the Yangon/ Hanthawaddy International Airport project, management is still waiting for the Myanmar government to make a decision although the results should have been announced last week. Valuation/Recommendation · We will be reviewing our earnings forecast and recommendation. | ||
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2gether
Member |
07-Aug-2013 10:28
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Thanks Rosesyrup.. for your comments and analysis.. kind a like your fair advice.. keep up!
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Dclas0827
Member |
07-Aug-2013 09:34
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cc Rosesyrup: Thanks for yr thoughts. I am still vested in this comp. To me, stable and will not really bust despite bad economy in nx few years. As for the Myanmar contract,if Yongnam clinch it, it will be a bonus. If didn't , still have plenty of overseas market for them to explore in future. |
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Rosesyrup
Veteran |
06-Aug-2013 18:33
Yells: "Get your own opinion, don't follow blindly." |
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Sorry for the spam. For some reason, the format is kind of messed up. Send me an email if you need a more tidy format. My apology. | ||
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Rosesyrup
Veteran |
06-Aug-2013 18:30
Yells: "Get your own opinion, don't follow blindly." |
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Hi, I have recieved a number of emails from different users in the past few hours. Since they were asking more or less similar questions, I thought it would be better if I post the answers here. 1) "Do you mean that if I enter at 28.5cents, I would certainly make a profit?" ANS: NONO, no one can gurantee you a profit in stock market. My sentence of " Before the result of the Myanmar contract is out, 28.5cents remains a good price to bet" simply means that 28.5cents present a cheap price to bet that Yongnam be awarded the Myanmar contract. Put it another way, at 28.5cents you stand to gain more if the contract is secured, than to lose if Yongnam did not get the contract. Thus there is still a chance that you might make a loss-if the contract was not awarded to Yongnam. 2) There are a number of emails citing positive points about Yongnam and most supported their claims with Kim Eng's high TP of 46.5 cents My advice for these emails would be: If you are comfortable and confident about your (positive) views about Yongnam, please stay true to it. There is no gurantee that my views are whole and completely correct. You might be right and managed to make a big gain out of this counter- who knows. As for Kim Eng's high TP, it is inconvience for me to comment much about it. Nevertheless, if I were the investor, I would look for the underlying assumptions made by the analyst. Things to look out for include: Did the report consider all significant points (e.g. Gov's attempt to improve construction efficiency), weightage given the impact of each points, the reasonableness of such weightage. 3) "Should I start shorting?" This is your personal investment decision, I am in no position to tell you what to do. However, FOR MYSELF, I have no plan of shorting yet as currently the counter display high volatility-dangerous. 4) "Since you said that the construction industry is going to need more machinery, then should I move to invest in firm that rent construction machinery?" Again, this is your personal investment decision, I am in no position to tell you what to do. However, FOR MYSELF,probably not. The reason being the few constuction firms that are ultimately left, would be expect to face a large and continuous stream of contracts. The heavy requirement of machineries would most probably means that construction firms are better off buying them than leasing them. Also, the machinery rental industry itself might also experience a shake out of its own- instead of the current machinery owned, higher technology machineries might be needed. 5) "Rosy, you sounded as if there is a apocalypse in the construction firm (I think you meant industry). Any safety spot to reccomend?" Yup, I have divested my construction counters and I have no plan to look at them for at least the next 2 years. I am currently looking at STI components blue chips as these counters are often the first to rise in time of economy certainty. Still, I advise great cautious in selecting them as some like SIA and SMRT could be overvalued! Flattered to know that there are people who review my points, hope I answered yours questions. Good luck, regardless of what positions you hold. | ||
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Rosesyrup
Veteran |
06-Aug-2013 18:29
Yells: "Get your own opinion, don't follow blindly." |
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Hi, I have recieved a number of emails from different users in the past few hours. Since they were asking more or less similar questions, I thought it would be better if I post the answers here. 1) "Do you mean that if I enter at 28.5cents, I would certainly make a profit?" ANS: NONO, no one can gurantee you a profit in stock market. My sentence of " Before the result of the Myanmar contract is out, 28.5cents remains a good price to bet" simply means that 28.5cents present a cheap price to bet that Yongnam be awarded the Myanmar contract. Put it another way, at 28.5cents you stand to gain more if the contract is secured, than to lose if Yongnam did not get the contract. Thus there is still a chance that you might make a loss-if the contract was not awarded to Yongnam. 2) There are a number of emails citing positive points about Yongnam and most supported their claims with Kim Eng's high TP of 46.5 cents My advice for these emails would be: If you are comfortable and confident about your (positive) views about Yongnam, please stay true to it. There is no gurantee that my views are whole and completely correct. You might be right and managed to make a big gain out of this counter- who knows. As for Kim Eng's high TP, it is inconvience for me to comment much about it. Nevertheless, if I were the investor, I would look for the underlying assumptions made by the analyst. Things to look out for include: Did the report consider all significant points (e.g. Gov's attempt to improve construction efficiency), weightage given the impact of each points, the reasonableness of such weightage. 3) "Should I start shorting?" This is your personal investment decision, I am in no position to tell you what to do. However, FOR MYSELF, I have no plan of shorting yet as currently the counter display high volatility-dangerous. 4) "Since you said that the construction industry is going to need more machinery, then should I move to invest in firm that rent construction machinery?" Again, this is your personal investment decision, I am in no position to tell you what to do. However, FOR MYSELF,probably not. The reason being the few constuction firms that are ultimately left, would be expect to face a large and continuous stream of contracts. The heavy requirement of machineries would most probably means that construction firms are better off buying them than leasing them. Also, the machinery rental industry itself might also experience a shake out of its own- instead of the current machinery owned, higher technology machineries might be needed. 5) "Rosy, you sounded as if there is a apocalypse in the construction firm (I think you meant industry). Any safety spot to reccomend?" Yup, I have divested my construction counters and I have no plan to look at them for at least the next 2 years. I am currently looking at STI components blue chips as these counters are often the first to rise in time of economy certainty. Still, I advise great cautious in selecting them as some like SIA and SMRT could be overvalued! Really, really, really flattered to know that there are people who review my points, hope I answered yours questions. Feel free to contact me at Rosesyrup123@yahoo.com, if you have more to share. Good luck, regardless of what positions you hold. | ||
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Rosesyrup
Veteran |
06-Aug-2013 12:22
Yells: "Get your own opinion, don't follow blindly." |
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Sorry, forgotten to reiterate the following message: " Before the result of the Myanmar contract is out, 28.5cents remains a good price to bet."
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Rosesyrup
Veteran |
06-Aug-2013 12:17
Yells: "Get your own opinion, don't follow blindly." |
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No joke really. Without the Myanmar contract, The FUNDAMENTAL PRICE of this thing is only worth around 27.5 cents. The reason for such hopeless valuation is due to: 1) Construction indsutry expected to be faced with declining contracts 2)Labor cost expected to rise steeply 3) Although Yongnam remains the market leader, there is still a need to value Yongnam at near liquidation state. Reason being, government policies (such as those mentioned above) would cause more " Alpha Bau" (inefficient and small companies) to go bust. Since the construction companies are closely linked, you could imagine the impact of such bankrutcy to the survivors' profitability and most important survival (real cash flows). Present value comes from future value. The reason for maintaining a premium above its book value is due to the possible chance of Yongnam surviving the upcoming government policies which are expected to start in Sept. Right now the only good news for the firm is: " Should it survived the shake out, it would face much lesser competition, higher profit margin, and so profitability. Reason being many competitors, who can adapt to changes, will be taken out in this ordeal. The ones who would remained, are those who reached the Japanese level of efficiency- that is capable of taking on many contracts with little but skilled manpower, and many machines." |
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dingbat
Senior |
06-Aug-2013 11:56
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One report says half empty, the other says half full. All about perceptions. Thanks for posting that lewfys. |
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lewfys
Member |
06-Aug-2013 11:45
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2Q13 results within expectations. Results were mostly within expectation, including a one-off SGD5.1m provision for the Alpine Bau MRT project, which hit bottom line. Excluding this item, net profit would be up 13% yoy and 19% qoq. Despite ongoing speculation about Myanmar contract wins, we are positive on the strength of its core business and see Yongnam as a key beneficiary of an unprecedented infrastructure boom in the region. Recent share price weakness represents an opportunity to accumulate, maintain BUY. Higher revenue, lower margins. Revenue for the quarter was up 48% yoy, on higher recognition on ongoing projects, such as Singapore Sports Hub, National Art Gallery, Suntec City, and a Belt Conveyor Structure in Malaysia. However, gross margins were lower at 19% partly due to a higher percentage of structural steelwork (61%) which has lower margins. Going forward, we expect this to improve from better-priced new contracts as well as more revenue from strutting. Expecting major project wins over next few months. Current orderbook stands at just SGD266m, of which 57% is for higher-margin strutting work. This is a very thin orderbook by Yongnam’s standard. Management is in the midst of renegotiation for several major contracts, we believe centering on pricing. Around SGD60m of our FY13F revenue assumes new contract win recognition. Myanmar contracts yet to be announced. There were no further updates on Myanmar, with both the Yangon and Hanthawaddy airports yet to be officially awarded, despite ongoing market speculation. Management remains optimistic they are front-runners for both airports. Current share price in our opinion, does not price in a win at this moment. Maintain BUY. We treat the SGD5.1m provision as a one-off, as believe there is a possibility of write-back later on. Excluding that, we trim our FY13-FY15F earnings 2-3% mainly on lower margin assumptions. Our SOTP TP isSGD0.465 (assuming 50% chance of winning Yangon). Maintain BUY. Source: Maybank Kim Eng Research - 6 Aug 2013 |
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Blanchard
Senior |
06-Aug-2013 11:07
Yells: "Winners cry..... Losers smile....." |
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Wonder what does Maybank Kim Eng say? Any revised TP? | ||
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