Gold Pulls Back after False Move but Remains above Pivot

Daily Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

No change: “A previously rare occurrence has popped up 3 times since June. That is, gold has traded in a double inside day AFTER an outside day. Before June, one had to look back to 2009 to find this pattern. The pattern is a function of volatility contraction and the plethora of orders on each side of the narrow range is conducive to false breaks. One can envision a spike to a new high (above 1790.55 and maybe 1802.80) following Fed minutes tomorrow before gold reverses and declines sharply.” Gold rallied to a new and has pulled back in order to satisfy the ‘false break’. Still, 1763.25 defines the trend (above is bullish and below is bearish).

LEVELS: 1736.05 1750.90 1763.25 1791.49 1802.80 1819.05

Last Updated : 08 October 2012 at 17:35 IST

 

Gold may wait till Q2 2013 to break $1900/Oz: BNP Paribas

 

Source :Commodity Online

 

  NEW YORK (Commodity Online):  BNP Paribas things gold prices may wait till second quarter of 2013 to break $1900 an ounce level.

It looks for gold to average $1,795 per ounce in the fourth quarter of this year and $1,865 in the first quarter of 2013 and $1,900 in the second, says BNP Paribas in an updated forecast.

The French bank looks for  gold to continue working its way high over the next year, with monetary policy likely to be the key influence.  Prices rose sharply since mid-August on expectations for more Federal Open Market Committee easing followed by actual accommodation.

“The  FOMC commitment to open-ended quantitative easing is taking it one step further than previous instances of QE, as there is no timeline for the end of bond buying. This is most definitely positive for gold.  On the other hand, inflationary pressures have subsided, particularly in China, and should have less sway on gold prices,” says Anne-Laure Tremblay, senior precious metals strategist at BNP Paribas.

“We continue to believe that the direction of the gold price will be tightly linked to monetary easing.  In the next 12 months, we expect gold to trend higher.  The outlook beyond this timeframe will greatly depend on economic conditions, and particularly on any improvement in the U.S. job market,” BNP Paribas concluded.

Last Updated : 08 October 2012 at 12:35 IST

 

MCX Gold, Silver to be in red for Monday US markets closed

 

Source :Commodity Online Research

 

  AHMEDABAD (Commodity Online):  Gold and Silver opened this morning on a negative note and is expected to trade in the negative territory for the entire session for the day.

“For today US markets are closed on account of Columbus Day. So I also expect less volume and price movement in bullions.” said  Ankush Jain, Manager-Research (metals-energy),  Commodity Online. However, the electronic trading is on, on the Globex platform of CME.

“Techincally on daily charts Gold December contract is now having good support at Rs.31020 and resistance at Rs.31180 for the day. Meanwhile in Silver December contract is having support at Rs 61000 and Resistance at Rs 61800.” he added.

Traders are advised to take a short sell position in MCX Gold December around Rs.31130 with stop loss of Rs.31200 for the target near Rs.31050. For MCX Silver December contract traders are advised to take a short sell position around Rs.61500 with stop loss of Rs.61800 for target near Rs.61200 and Rs.61000.

Gold prices were trading flat on the Asian markets in the morning as dollar firmed up with investors speculating that the US job data may not be portraying a robust picture of the economy as previously thought. This caused a rush to secure greenback in droves.

There were reports that former CEO of General Electric, Jack Welch expressed lack of confidence in the US job data even alleging manipulations by authorities. It is unclear if this influenced the investors in precious metals.

Last Updated : 06 October 2012 at 13:35 IST

 

Gold aims for $1800 levels next week as China return

 

Source :Commodity Online

 

  Gold will rise above the $1,800 area, citing upward momentum and China’s return to the markets after this week’s holiday, which might spur additional buying

 

  NEW YORK (Commodity Online):  Global gold prices may try to reach $1,800 an ounce next week with Chinese market participants returning from a week-long holiday. This is after the yellow metal missing its chance to break $1,800 an ounce level this week.

Global gold prices were down on Friday and mixed this week. The most-active December gold contract on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled $1,780.80 an ounce, up 0.39% on the week.

The Comex December futures peaked at $1,798.10 an ounce on Thursday, their strongest level since Feb. 29. Spot gold has been as high as $1,795.90, its strongest level since last November.

Comex gold dropped just shy of hitting the $1,800 an ounce mark this week, as profit-taking set in following an as-expected September U.S. employment report.

Dan Pavilonis, Senior commodities brokers with RJO Futures said, “Gold was a bit whipsawed by the jobs data, but looking toward next week, gold will rise above the $1,800 area, citing upward momentum and China’s return to the markets after this week’s holiday, which might spur additional buying.”

 

Last Updated : 07 October 2012 at 12:05 IST

 

Epic Debate: It is Jim Rogers Vs. Marc Faber on China

 

Source :cnbc

 

Jim Rogers reply that he is bullish on China and he believes that China is about to become the greatest country in 21st century. “I only buy China when it collapses” he said, and added that he bought into Chinese assets thrice: 1999, 2005 and 2008 November when there were collapses. 

 

Commodity Online
While the investment gurus Jim Rogers and Marc Faber agree on certain points in a  CNBC TV debate, there are instances where they disagree.

For example China: Marc points out that China’s bench mark stock index the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index was at 6100 in 2007 even as it is currently at 2086 levels these days how would Jim Rogers be able to maintain that he is bullish on China?

Jim Rogers reply that he is bullish on China and he believes that China is about to become the greatest country in 21st century. “I only buy China when it collapses” he said, and added that he bought into Chinese assets thrice: 1999, 2005 and 2008 November when there were collapses.

“But there is a huge difference when one says that China is going to be the greatest country in 21st century and one should buy Chinese stocks” Jim Rogers stressed. “But I do buy Chinese stocks and would buy more if China collapses.” he said. And I buy them for my daughters one day they may say that, “old man was a smart guy.”

Marc Faber meanwhile is bullish on Russia, as per Jim Rogers.

On US’ QE initiatives, Jim Rogers said that the biggest problem with authorities is that, “they think they know what they are doing” which actually may not be the case.

On Romney and Obama, Jim said, “they are both the same” to which Marc Faber agreed.

Jim Rogers mentioned that he is long on commodities and currencies and short on stocks. “If money printing continues by central bankers, bond markets would collapse and interest rates would shoot up.” he added.

 

Friday, October 5th 06:48 PM IST

Last Updated : 05 October 2012 at 14:55 IST

I will never sell my Gold: Marc Faber

Source :The Nation




  Commodity Online

What Marc Faber says the world listens to!

The investment guru is unbeatable as he buys into real estate properties in Thailand, his latest obsession. He considers Thailand to be a good place to invest even as he is worried of certain aspects of the Thai economy.

But it would surprise us all when he says that he will never sell his gold.

He was speaking at an  interview  given to The Nation and when asked about the prospect of gold as a safe haven asset, he said that the level of gold prices could still be very low.

“Because I look at the increases in government debts over the past 10-20 years. I look at the increase in international reserves over the past 10-20 years, increase in the quantity of money. And I look at wealth creation. I will never sell my gold.” he said.

He is of the opinion that the role of USD would diminish and he personally do not trust dollar for “one second” as it is getting printed on and on.

He owns dollar because “currencies like the euro are probably even worse.” He also spoke of a systemic collapse of the global economy “ maybe in three, five, 10 years, nobody knows.”

He also said JP Morgan has trillions of dollars in derivatives and “nobody knows how to value this garbage.”

As an investor, it gets really difficult to predict the future, he added.

Gold Inches Towards 1800

Daily Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

“A previously rare occurrence has popped up 3 times since June. That is, gold has traded in a double inside day AFTER an outside day. Before June, one had to look back to 2009 to find this pattern. The pattern is a function of volatility contraction and the plethora of orders on each side of the narrow range is conducive to false breaks. One can envision a spike to a new high (above 1790.55 and maybe 1802.80) following Fed minutes tomorrow before gold reverses and declines sharply.” Gold rallied to a new high but, like the EURUSD, the rally was steady and gold closed near the highs. This suggests additional upside. 1763.25 is still the near term pivot.

LEVELS: 1736.05 1750.90 1763.25 1791.49 1802.80 1819.05