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Fellowship of the Shares
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huatah
Veteran |
21-Jan-2008 09:04
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tks elf.. noted on Ellipsiz. read zhuge_liang posting too.. will take my position by month end.. hope to sell off on rally.. as for Jade.. wif the announcement on today. wat do you think? |
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baseerahmed
Master |
21-Jan-2008 07:44
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elfinchilde : thanks for the encouragement : ) |
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Sporeguy
Elite |
20-Jan-2008 23:34
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Hi Elfin, how do you arrived at 1.7 for golden agri ? Study w%, formation of w at the bottom signal a buy. so 1 more leg to go. Study stoch, formation of extra leg to the bottom w (i.e 3 legs) is the signal to buy gar. also 1 more leg to go. I think 1.75 will be the support. As for 1stRes, only Stoch indicates a buy on Thur as quicker stoch cut the slower stoch from bottom. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
20-Jan-2008 21:15
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hey, huatah, in light of zhuge_liang's post on ellipsiz, have read the AR of the co. the following is the FA perspective k. NAV has actually increased from FY 06 to 07, from 44.9c to 48.1c. However, FY 06 to 07 shows a 44% decrease in EPS. Notably, the 2H FY07 is a startling 63% drop from 1HFY07. If so, assuming the trend follows (since macro view is bad), would expect the 1HFY08 EPS to read 0.8 or less (0.62 lowest estimate, given their profit guidance). so expect EPS range about 0.6-0.8. PE ratio ave about 30x. Hence fair value on feb 14th would be in range of 18c-24c. Take ave, means ellipsiz support should be 21c. but note company facing strong headwinds. may not be sustainable for the year. Based on FA, would recommend a cut. dovetails with TA. note that recent buy-in was cos of atlantis mgmt: they bought under some obligation (????--see sgx announcement). so wouldn't expect any rebound to be longlived. esp if they sell out again. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
20-Jan-2008 20:07
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hell it, kid. you are what you are. :) may just be an x. ie, balanced. haha. ok, time for dinner. byebye! :) prepared for market tmrw? expect swings. down up down! wheee. heehee. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
20-Jan-2008 19:55
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but j's are supposed to be orderly and methodical and routine-based! you just jump in even when your hands are tied up! :P or is it the part abt liking neat ends and closures? p's are spontaneous, can't do deadlines, and very spur-of-the-moment. :P |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
20-Jan-2008 19:50
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hey eldarchen...the rebound is mainly technical in nature. cos the 3,000 support is relatively strong. so traders enter counters at STI 3,000 and run at STI 3,100-3,150. which accounts for the volatility in esp the blues. Some have started bottom-fishing; eg, sgx's volume was extremely high these few days. but remains to be seen if it's a genuine turn in trend or just a bear trap. dow is just resting above its 12,000 support. technically, it is a bear market already, since it has given up its gains of the previous year by falling below 12,200. and well, FA-wise, everything is just holding up because of expectations of fed rate cut. but really, how long can that hold up a sinking market for? we need the US companies to fully write off all their debts before you have a genuine clear view of what lies ahead. japan's nikkei is in bear market territory. they've got to park their funds somewhere. likely the beginning of bottom fishing. not quite sure if it's a wise idea for retailers to follow so soon tho. pre-rate cut rally is expecting at least 50 pts, but pricing in 75 pts. so you can expect a buy on rumor sell on news scenario by end this mth. personally, am staying out of trading for this period; too volatile. focus on bottom-fishing good stocks for long term holding may be better (or haha, ok, i'm just too much of a coward to trade now. hehe). |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
20-Jan-2008 19:37
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yea, i fully agree with simck. best not to do any trading; the markets are too volatile except for intraday charts and longterm charts (ie, at least 3 mths). eheh, luostock, can i charge for this? :P baseerahmed, thanks for doing the TA! you're good. :) and no prob abt 'cutting into my domain', no such thing; i welcome the chance to learn and compare techs too! FA for indoagri, wilmar, firstres and golden agri (gar): firstres and gar are actually on my watchlist for the year. better for charting and value-for-dollar-invested is better than wilmar. note wilmar has been affected by its china export market (the requirement for license), so may be better to avoid it, esp since it has run up a lot since last year. longterm for the commodities sector is uptrend; as they are a necessity and the current boom cycle. they'll track the px of crude oil, so that is your proxy. the higher crude oil goes to, the more ppl will be driven to find other alternatives. crude oil is currently on a retracement, hence these tandem plays as well. it may be better to sit and hold these counters rather than trade them, since longterm is uptrend, esp in light of current global/US economic turmoil. techs: wilmar: on longterm downtrend, has potential to go lower, with the usual tech rebounds in between. support at ~4.36 and then again at ~4.0--with this latter being the strong support: if it breaks this, cut. may rebound to abt 4.8 level. firstres and gar: these have ran up very rapidly in the previous weeks, so no surprise that a tech downturn occurred. be forewarned that mid-term (ie for ~next mth) reads downtrend tho, via MACD. ~1.7 should be a good level to collect gar, ~1.4 for firstres (give provisions for a drop to 1.2). upside for firstres unknown yet, since too new to do much techs on; but upside for gar shd be to ~2.3 once the uptrend resumes (2.18 first resistance). indoagri: just beginning a downtrend. shd be able to manage a ~10c drop tmrw. first support at ~2.4, which it is just resting on. think it may actually not hold. sudden severe selling since 10th jan; don't know why. perhaps profit taking. Next two supports are at ~2.06, and at 1.84. Steep falls/rises to be expected since this is a volatile counter with large intraday range. note: all above just my reading. not liable for any of your losses/gains. also pls take note that current market climate is VERY volatile; hence long term techs may not actually work, since a change in macro factors would just sweep all the charts aside: techs work on basis of a continuity in the macro trend. once the macro changes, the techs necessarily change. hence, follow the trend, esp if you're a short term trader. g'luck! :) |
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simck001
Senior |
20-Jan-2008 16:07
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Looking at the current situation, the best advice is do not look at any of the counters. Do not do any TA. Do not monitor any of the indices. Do not listen to any of the financial news. Chop off those itchy fingers. Tied your hands. Switch off the computers. Unsubscribe the newspaper. Just go for holidays, shopping, movies, exercise or anything except trading. |
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baseerahmed
Master |
20-Jan-2008 15:46
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Admin, Kindly remove my post of today at 11.36 and 15.12 for sake of neatness .tks : ) |
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baseerahmed
Master |
20-Jan-2008 15:42
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Attempting my maiden post on TA in SJ. Pls give this "L Driver" a wide berth. This is by no means as of cutting into the domain of our most respected elfinchilde. In fact this "Pri 3 pupil" looks forward to her critical appraisal of this humble reply. Its all in the name of fine tuning and learning TA and sharing ideas/thoughts. I too am looking forward to elfinchilde's posting which will be more meatier with her thorough analysis with TA, FA combined with 'backroom' street-smart information. Luostock : apologies for using ur query for my learning purposes. appreciate ur tolerance and understanding. thanks in advance : ) ------------------------------- Ok, here goes : Caveat Emptor (all based on eod 180108, only ' dry bone' analysis based on charts alone .. and general knowledge of a lay man ..) Golden Agri seems to be on uptrend despite yo-yoing. ma50 looks like a strong support. long term uptrend looks to be intact. 1.84 seems to be a strong level. if this support fails the next level could be 1.69 in immediate short term : based on w% and rsi ..have potential to run up to resistancelevel at 2.19 FirstRes Is this First Resources(EB5) ? Short chart history. Therefore fewer details. But anyway , looking patternwise , last 2 days bullish, with hammer earlier. Think has potential to push up to 1.95 level if all goes well. IndoAgri Looks like ma50 is a support line.Think might bounce off from support 2.40 to first resistance 2.70 and even to next resistance level 3.00 will not enter right now, but will give time to rsi,w% to firm up. Wilmar Had a good run from late Nov, but was brought down recently. Feel like it had come full circle and think 4.02 is the strong support. Has potential to move upto 4.66 or 4.86 in short term. Will wait for confirmation from rsi and other indicators to. Potential seems to be there. ------------------------ *posted this in good faith, not vested in any counters *for informational and entertainment purposes, and not as advice for financial decisions or investment Caveat Emptor |
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baseerahmed
Master |
20-Jan-2008 15:12
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testing |
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Eldarchen
Member |
20-Jan-2008 12:35
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Oh also forgot to add in, what about CNY and pre rate cut rally? Sigh even my trader friend got caught both ways, short also get caught, long also get caught ...... |
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Eldarchen
Member |
20-Jan-2008 12:26
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Eh just curious , Any idea why the index did a hard rebound for 2 days straight, same for regional markets, weird thing is though selling volume is high , japan pension funds went in. Same for HK, did a rebound as well. I mean - no one should be stupid enough to go in - in light of all the negative news and such. So question is, is there something cooking ?? Seems like bush stumilus plan didn't bring a huge rally, is that the reason for the 2 days of rebound or is it something else? I keep hearing rumors of a rate cut ..... So is it time to sell on rally and go into put warrants or ?? |
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baseerahmed
Master |
20-Jan-2008 11:36
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Attempting my maiden post on TA in SJ .... Pls give this "L Driver" a wide berth ... This is by no means as of cutting into the domain of the most respected elfinchilde, if fact this ' Pri 3 pupil ' looks forward to her critical appraisal of this reply , all in the name of learning ta and sharing ideas ... I too am looking forward to elfinchilde's posting which will even more meatier with her thorough analysis with TA and FA combined with 'backroom', street-smart information ..... this just an attempt to gauge my level of understanding of ta .. Luostock : apologies for using ur query for my learning purposes . appreciate ur tolerance and understanding . thanks in advance : ) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Ok, here goes : Caveat Emptor all based on eod 180108, only 'dry bone' analysis ..all based on charts alone .. and general knowledge of a lay man ... Golden Agri seems to be on uptrend mode despite yo-yoing ...ma50 looks like a good support ...long term uptrend seems to be intact .. 1.84 seems to be a strong support level ..if this support fails the next level should be 1.69 in immediate short term , ...based on w% and rsi ...have potential to run up to resistance level 2.19 FirstRes is it First Resources(EB5)? short chart history .. therefore fewer details of its behaviour ... but anyway ..looking at chart patternwise ... last 2 days bullish, with hammer earlier ... think has potential to push up to 1.95 level if all goes well.. IndoAgri looks like ma50 is a support line ...think might bounce off from support 2.40 to first resistance 2.70 and even to next resistance level 3.00 will not enter right now but will give time to rsi, w% to firm up Wilmar had a good run from lateNov, but was brought down recently .. feel like it had come full circle and think 4.02 is the strong support ... has potential to move upto 4.66 or 4.86 in immediate short term ... will wait for confirmation from rsi and other indicators ... potential is there ... * posted this in good faith , not vested in any counters * for informational and entertainment purposes, and not as advice for financial decisions or investments Caveat Emptor |
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huatah
Veteran |
20-Jan-2008 10:47
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Hi elf.. many tks for your analyst. previously.. never learnt and dun noe wat's cut losses.. so.. had myself to blame. Jade and Ellipsiz.. will throw should there b any short term rally or tech rebounce. as for PO, NOL and YZJ, will perform DCA when opportunity arises and as per your kind advises. Deeply appreciate your help and I hope these finding didn't has u spent too much of your previous rest time during weekend. Cheers.. we chat on again. |
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Luostock
Senior |
19-Jan-2008 23:10
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Hi elfinchide, bought Golden Agri at 1.80 and FirstRes at 1.33 on thurs which closed at 1.86 and 1.47 resp. The next morning, the prices went downhill, no time to monitor, sold them at 1.81 amnd 1.38 resp. but closed at 1.90 and 1.55. Should have waited Elfinchilde, what is yr opinion on Golden Agri, FirstRes, IndoAgri and Wilmar using TA and FA. Thanks in advance. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
19-Jan-2008 14:33
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hm. dow close last night wasn't good. forget any tech rebound on fed cut already...i'm keeping in cash and hoarding gold. urgh. need to stop itchy fingers. >~< huatah, as per request, pls take only as technical opinion fyi (and don't take it that i'm cursing your counters!! :P): bottomline: don't throw good money after bad. sometimes it's better to take loss and cut rather than hope for rebound. DCA only works for blues and good fundamentals, rem that... jade: current px 21.5. support at 18/18.5, then again at 16. be careful of drop below 16, cos thereaft it's a steep drop to support of 8c. vital signs for long term doesn't look good: long slow downtrend on decreasing vol; signals loss of BB interest in this counter (on plus side, also signals that may not drop that much anymore)--hence likely to remain stagnant for some time to come. wld advise to cut on rally, if any. if a rally does occur, may go to 27-29c. strong resistance is at 30. ellipsiz: (-_-")...you bought at 54 (i assume around oct 5th), why didn't you cut at 49c...stock's been downtrend since oct...long steady decline which is what traders are most afraid of...does appear to be slightly rebounding; but it's a downtrend still--has broken all supports so can't tell what it can drop to...would actually recommend an immediate cut for this counter. jade at least is speculative, and it's the same folks playing it; so you know they may run it up again sometime. NOL: very high vol; may be bottoming out soon. not yet tho. broke aug 17 low of 3.7 which is a bearish sign. should find strong support at 2.87 however. (note jan 16 it rebounded off 2.88 low). May be worth a try to DCA at this px, but go in bit by bit in case it goes below that. if you can reduce your buy px to below 4.1, you'll have a chance at running with slight loss/no loss/slight profit. 3.8 then 4.1 will be the resistance. May not be so in this Q tho. NOL's uptrend takes at least 1 mth to hit the peak. yzj: ah...our fav baby. 1.39 is the support (1.36 aug 17 low); appears to have found some stability for now; altho long term doesn't look like ended downtrend yet. Watch it these few days and see. if can maintain above 1.40-1.45 on increasing buy vol, can consider starting to DCA on this. your run date would likely be in 3Q of the year tho: beijing olympics. buy on rumor sell on news. alt see if CNY can produce a surprise rally. don't get your hopes up tho. resistances along the way at approx 1.7, 1.85, 2.05. will be a tough climb... stx po: was very attracted to play this counter, but too volatile for the elf. haha. note that its intraday range is quite large, so this is actually a good trader's counter. note that long term it has actually formed a lower high, lower low formation alr, so may be good to run on any rally. 3.7 is abt the highest it can reach; first resistance at ~2.94. i'd put its upper peg at abt 3.36 only tho; in light of current market. beware that it is still far from its aug 17 low, which means may have the potential to drop to 1.73. short term williams is oversold and rising up; so do try to run on rally, unless you're prepared to hold long term. advsct: seems like another ellipsiz....may rebound short term to abt 81, but long term is a deepening downtrend...take care..if break aug 17 low of 70.5, consider just cutting. apologies to be the bringer of bad news yea....pls note that i'm just reading what the charts say; and on the plus side, i'm often wrong! :) fyi only, usual caveat emptor applies. |
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Manikamaniho
Senior |
19-Jan-2008 13:01
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This is a rather interesting and serious topic... |
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harryp
Veteran |
19-Jan-2008 11:33
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To save the hassle of finding souls for the newly clone human beings, it is easier if the religious bodies get together and made an agreement that in each gene there resides a soul. Then spread this new teaching to their believers. As there is no soul theory for the Buddhists, the migration of karmic debt should have no problem with clones. |
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