Midland Holdings’ chief analyst

Buggle Lau

private housing

colin taN

property@mediacorp.com.sg

It is a pity that after several days of heated oratory ahead of Polling Day, there has been little debate, if any, on the private housing market. After all, a condominium is one of the 5C’s besides cash, car, credit card and country club membership that many Singaporeans aspire to have.

Colin Tan is head, research and consultancy, at Chesterton Suntec International.

Almost all of the discussion on housing has been focused on the public housing sector. This is expected as there is more political mileage to be gained from a vigorous debate on it. While private housing is not exactly a hot button issue, it does not mean that the majority is happy with the current state of affairs, based on the many letters and opinions covered by the media so far.

Under the present buoyant housing market conditions, many potential upgraders, not just those living in HDB flats but those living in older private estates, have had their housing aspirations put on hold. However, the sentiment here is less extreme. It is one of disappointment and exasperation rather than anger or discontent.

It is a shame that there is little debate on private housing because in a small place like Singapore of some 712 square kilometres, our property markets cannot be strictly compartmentalised into high-end private, mass market private and public housing and dealt with separately with different policies for each segment.

As we have seen since 2007, what happens in one sector invariably affects other segments — all the more so when the various segments are open for investment buying and as the proportion of housing sales by investors — as opposed to owner occupiers — increases over time.

Establishing stability or reducing price volatility should be sought for all segments. There should not be a separate playground [CASINO] for the rich and famous.

We cannot look at London, New York or Tokyo to get an idea of what property prices in Singapore would be like in the future.

In these cities, when property prices get too high for locals, they relocate to the outskirts. In tiny Singapore, if we were to do this, we would have to cross the borders and find ourselves in a different country.

Because of this, housing prices here cannot reach the dizzy heights as we have seen for those in London, New York or Tokyo — the affordability of homes to locals will always act as a constraint.

If we have policies that allow prices in one segment to rise unchecked, I am very sure they will backfire.

On Wednesday, it was reported that property stocks fell on fears that a possible raising of the household income ceiling for HDB build-to-order (BTO) flats could cool demand for mass market private properties. The Government had indicated that the S$8,000 income ceiling for families buying a flat from HDB could be raised to S$10,000 after the General Election.

If this comes to pass, there will definitely be more demand for BTO flats, but will it mean less demand for mass market housing? I doubt so, as most of these potential buyers are already out of the market for private housing as they cannot afford the prices demanded by developers. This is why they are clamouring to get into the public housing market.

At the moment, if you have been tracking the profile of buyers, most of the buying of mass market projects are by investors – both local and foreign.

Given the low interest rate environment, I cannot see a let-up in buying from these investors.

Of late, the buying and showflat attendances may have been affected by the electioneering but I expect normal business to resume after Polling Day.

The only threat is more policy measures to cool the market.

But what could be more severe than the sellers’ stamp duty measures implemented in mid-January?

An interest rate hike?

Not likely, because the Monetary Authority of Singapore has stated that a blanket rise will have repercussions on other sectors of the economy.

Maybe a more creative way of raising the cost of housing loans?

We shall see.

Although global policies should be consistent, regulation and supervision must also cater to domestic context and circumstances to be effective.

Mr Ravi Menon,

MAS managing director

Regulatory consistency needed to avert crisis repeat

Christopher Howells

christopherh@mediacorp.com.sg

Speaking at a conference organised by the Singapore Management University (SMU) yesterday, central bankers and academics said that leveraging by so-called “shadow banks”, such as hedge funds and investment banks, had made it difficult to track money globally.

Mr Ravi Menon, managing director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, called for greater global consistency in regulation.

“This high degree of interdependence means that governments in major economies can no longer act in isolation. Regulatory policies must be globally consistent to minimise the risk of arbitrage.

Supervisory actions must be internationally coordinated to maximise their effectiveness,” he said.

Mr Menon added that regulators used to worry about institutions that were too big to fail but now they are more worried about those too interconnected to fail.

This is because cross-border bank lending has exceeded 40 per cent of world gross domestic product.

He stressed, however, that although global policies should be consistent, regulation and supervision must also cater to domestic context and circumstances to be effective.

Mr Andrew Sheng, chief advisor to the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said, “Finance has created a life of its own. It has become very abstract, very virtual and we can create liabilities as if there’s no tomorrow, because we can leverage this.

And the result is, of course, that we now have a crisis of fiat money, money created by the shadow banking system, global credit creation, with no global institution to maintain the hard budget constraint. And the reflexivity between credit creation globally drives interest rates lower and lower and then creates that asset bubble.”

Participants also noted that the rebalancing in the global economy is still ongoing, with the right recipe of regulation, capitalisation and minimising risk still to be addressed.SINGAPORE — Experts have called for a global central bank and financial authority to monitor and regulate markets to help avoid a recurrence of the 2008 to 2009 worldwide crisis.

India boosted borrowing costs this week for the ninth time since mid-March of last year as rising prices force nations to tighten monetary policy at the risk of slowing growth. The South-east Asian nation’s economy may expand 5 to 6 per cent this year, easing from a decade-high of 7.2 per cent last year, according to the central bank. BLOOMBERG

fOreign labour  should not be  cheaper  than  Singaporeans 

Productivity growth is key to higher incomes: RP

Neo Chai Chin

chaichin@mediacorp.com.sg

SINGAPORE

In a press statement, the RP said: “Mr Lim clearly does not get it. Productivity growth is the key to higher incomes. Economic growth achieved merely by increasing inputs rather than using those inputs more productively is of little benefit to Singaporeans.”— The Reform Party (RP) yesterday defended its proposals on national policies and also issued a strong response to Trade and Industry Minister Lim Hng Kiang’s recent comments that limiting the number of foreign workers here would curb economic growth.

PM’s apology does not excuse actions of PAP Govt: Jeyaretnam

SINGAPORE

He said he accepted Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s apology to Singaporeans two days ago, just as Mr Lee had “magnanimously” accepted his apology earlier for mistaking the content of a condolence letter sent when his father J B Jeyaretnam died in 2008.

But Mr Lee’s apology “still does not excuse the actions and policies of this Government of the last five years”, said Mr Jeyaretnam, 52.— Vote “real competition” in the form of 15 to 20 Opposition candidates into Parliament and put a Jeyaretnam back into the House, Reform Party secretary general Kenneth Jeyaretnam said in a rally speech yesterday.

SDP fighting election ‘on policy alternatives, not apologies and tears’

Cheow Xin Yi

cheowxinyi@mediacorp.com.sg

In the good old days, before (there was) Internet, maybe PAP can cool you for 24 hours

... but (today), you’ll spend your whole day at the SDP website.

Dr Ang Yong Guan,

SDP candidate for Holland-Bukit Timah GRC

WP cries foul over last-minute leaflet sent by PAP

NG JING YNG

jingyng@mediacorp.com.sg

With minutes to go before midnight — just in time before Cooling Off Day kicked in — the WP posted a statement to rebut the allegations in the leaflet that the party was against home upgrading.

The WP statement added:

“This is misleading and mischievous.

It was distributed just before the close of the campaign period, leaving little time for WP to respond and set the record straight.”

The newsletter, which was seen by

Mr Giam had said in his post: “HDB flats should remain no-frills public housing.

There is no need to provide posh condo look-alikes.” The leaflet also cited a media report last month, which quoted Mr Giam saying that the high prices of Housing and Development Board (HDB) flats were due to the past PAP’s assets enhancement policy in the past 20 years.

This  is  the  INFLATION  DEVIL  ? ? ? ?

It  drOve  the  cOst  Of  lIvIng  sky hIgh  ? ? ? ?

O V E R H E A R D :

beware!  when  PR  CASH  OUT  and retUrn  hOme  ? ? ? ?

many  PRs  avOId  cOnversIOn  tO  cItIzenshIp  ? ? ? ?SINGAPORE — The Workers’ Party (WP) is crying foul over a leaflet sent by the People’s Action Party’s (PAP) Nee Soon Group Representation Constituency (GRC) team to the residents yesterday.Today, cited a blog post — dated Oct 20, 2009 — by WP East Coast GRC candidate Gerald Giam under a headline “WP’s Housing Policy — it will reduce the value of your homes!”