SG O& M: CS has sector report. Note that valuations more attractive, but downside risks remain. While valuations have come down from recent peaks, believe that they are not sufficiently attractive to be positive on the entire sector given macron uncertainty and a tightening of credit. believe earnings are increasingly at risk with a potential slowdown in orders.
Believe most stocks are pricing in a mild-2001 type US recession on a P/B basis. House has downgraded Sembcorp Marine and STX OSV to NEUTRAL and believe they have the largest risks to orders and earnings expectations. Remain comfortable on stocks close to meeting order expectations or are close to trough valuations, including O/p-rated Keppel (top pick), Sembcorp Industries and Yangzijiang. Cosco Corp (U/p) remains as least preferred.
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Sembmarine
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krisluke
Supreme |
20-Sep-2011 23:12
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Credit suisse could perhap be upset about a call on containers (new construct) made earlier this year. But do think twice, samsung was heard of recession in shipyard industry becos of poor economy factor and new contracts. The call made by cs was invalided, thus resulting downgrading smm from BUY to neutral. Any sparks of new contracts news or exercise of options in the month of oct may change their opinion.... I hope so 
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krisluke
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20-Sep-2011 23:05
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From my post made at 22:36 today... ... There could be two possible ways sembmar may cross the $3.86 then hopefully $4.00 1. Strait times cross 2850 in high vol towards 2865 2. Sembmar Director continue to argue about PPL ownership against Baker Marine |
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krisluke
Supreme |
20-Sep-2011 23:01
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Pivot: 2865 Our preference: Short positions below 2865($3.86 for smm) with targets @ 2650 & 2570 in extension. Alternative scenario: Above 2865 look for further upside with 2930 & 3000 as targets. Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50% Key levels 3000 2930 2865 2781 last 2650 2570 2400 |
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krisluke
Supreme |
20-Sep-2011 22:57
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US stocks rise despite Italy downgrade20 Sep 2011 21:41
NEW YORK - US stocks opened higher on Tuesday, lifted by gains in European equities as investors ignored Italy's credit rate downgrade. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 31.18 points (0.27 per cent) to 11,432.19 in the first five minutes of trading. The broader S& P 500 advanced 4.23 points (0.35 per cent) to 1,208.32, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 8.50 points (0.33 per cent) to 2,621.33. 'With European equity markets rising despite a credit rating downgrade of Italy by Standard & Poor's, US stocks are finding some support,' Charles Schwab analysts said in a client note. -- AFP |
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krisluke
Supreme |
20-Sep-2011 22:36
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" The U.S. President, Barrack Obama announced new deficit plan and proposed to raise taxes by $1.5 trillion on wealthy people and corporations, where the Presidential proposal aims to raise taxes on individuals who make more than one million dollars. In addition, Obama's plan includes $580 billion in cuts in Mandatory benefit programs, adding $48 billion in Medicare and $72 billion in Medicaid and other health programs. Another $1 trillion in cuts will be added from withdrawing military forces from Iraq and Afghanistan." So... Whaz can really boost the oil price 1. economy outlook 2. reduction in crude inventory 3. korea and north korea war game 
now... I could think of none... |
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krisluke
Supreme |
20-Sep-2011 22:28
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GoldThe long bearish bar that took the metal from 1811.00 levels to areas below 1785.00 zones signaled that yesterday's caught breakout above the falling wedge pattern was a false breakout. We have three major technical factors that prevent us from suggesting possible bearish resumption as follows: 1. The metal is very close to the important Fibonacci level of 76.4% for the upside rally from 1702.00 to all-time high of 1920.00. 2. RSI 14 is very close to oversold areas. 3. The proposed Elliott sequence is still valid as 1702.00 provides floor for the IM wave. Therefore, it is better to stay aside until clearer signs appear to pinpoint the upcoming big move. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1702.00 and key resistance now at 1855.00. The general trend over the short term basis is to the upside targeting 1694.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1430.00 remain intact with weekly closing. Support: 1761.00, 1755.00, 1745.00, 1728.00, 1715.00 Resistance: 1785.00, 1800.00, 1807.00, 1815.00, 1825.00 Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is staying aside until an actionable setup presents itself to define the upcoming big move
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krisluke
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20-Sep-2011 22:27
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Gold is fluctuating sharply today after opening the session at $1778.65 per ounce, where the metal is affected by the worsening and deepening debt crisis, but on the other hand the strong dollar forced downside pressures on the metal to trade lower. The yellow metal after the opening of $1778.65 per ounce, recorded a high of $1790.00 and a low of $1769.40, and is currently trading around $1787.50 an ounce. Gold could recover some of the losses seen yesterday, amid rising demand for havens and worsening outlook in Europe. Yesterday, we expected the metal to cover the opening gap however we expected the metal to incline in General during this week, as the worsening debt crisis, the downbeat growth outlook and the faltering recovery should boost demand for havens. In general, investors are anxious and terrified regarding a Greek default, which could reflect huge impact on the euro zone, the common currency and global growth, where confidence returned to be weak and pessimism dominates the market again raising demand for havens today. The metal's movement is limited around the opening level however we expect gold to incline today amid the worsening outlook of the euro area, especially after the rating agency, Standard & Poor's downgraded Italy credit rating by on notch to A from A+. S& P's cut Italy's credit rating with a negative outlook on fear the weakening growth and the 'fragile' government will not be able to cut and handle the second largest debt in the euro area, according to the statement from S& P yesterday, raising doubts that Italy in spite of the several moves taken by Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian Prime Minister, to cut spending and apply austerity measures, the country could fall into a debt crisis as Greece and could fail to prevent the contagion of the crisis from expanding within the Italian economy, where the shiny metal could advance today as demand for safe havens surges. Moreover, the Greek finance chief, Evangelos Venizelos is to continue the emergency teleconference with international lenders today, as the minister said yesterday that he has held 'substantive' discussions with the European Union and International Monetary Funds officials regarding the next tranche and the new bailout. Furthermore, the U.S. President, Barrack Obama announced new deficit plan and proposed to raise taxes by $1.5 trillion on wealthy people and corporations, where the Presidential proposal aims to raise taxes on individuals who make more than one million dollars. In addition, Obama's plan includes $580 billion in cuts in Mandatory benefit programs, adding $48 billion in Medicare and $72 billion in Medicaid and other health programs. Another $1 trillion in cuts will be added from withdrawing military forces from Iraq and Afghanistan. Silver declined slightly today after opening the session at $39.64 per ounce, however, the metal is moving within narrow range, after recording a high of $39.66 and a low of $39.13 and is currently trading around $39.52 an ounce. Among other metals, platinum declined sharply after opening the session at $1809.00, recording the highest at $1810.00 and the lowest at $1769.00 and is currently trading below the yellow metal around $1777.00 per ounce. |
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krisluke
Supreme |
20-Sep-2011 22:25
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Oil starts the day with heavy fluctuations after strong losses Crude oil is fluctuating heavily this morning and choppy mixed trading is evident with oil currently recovering the early losses in Asia. Fears over growth and the debt crisis in the euro area are weighing on the sentiment and affecting crude especially after Asian markets suffered the news of Italy’s downgrade. Crude oil futures for November settlement rebounded to trade around $86.33 higher by 0.61% recovering earlier losses where it set the low of $85.25 after opening the day at $86.01 a barrel. The downside pressure was evident in Asia with heavy losses across the board, where deepening debt woes in the euro area remained the biggest concern. In a late statement last night from Standard & Poor’s the rating agency cut Italy’s debt rating by one notch on concerns that growth is weak and the fragile political framework will prevent the nation from cutting the second biggest debt load in the euro area. Asian markets took the news bearishly amid rising signs of economic softness and financial markets strain, fueling losses across the board. Japanese shares declined strongly after the long weekend where the Nikkei 225 index slumped 1.61% to close at 8721.24. Fears over the outlook are evident and the mixed trading is merely ideal after the opening gap seen this week on Monday. Crude oil was rather resilient in the past period to the market pressure partly on its own fundamentals and pressure affecting supply, yet now with the growing pressure on the demand side and deeper expectations of slowdown crude is confined below the strong $90 a barrel resistance stronghold. We still see the session to remain with high volatility with the start of the two-day FOMC meeting that investors expect might unveil new stimulus measures from the Federal Reserve to stimulate growth, which surely will reflect positively on oil in the coming days if seen to test the mentioned $90 areas again in an attempt to break higher. Slowing U.S. growth remains a big problem for crude, where slowing demand from the world’s biggest consumer is strong downside pressure on black gold, especially when combined with dollar strength. Investors are focusing on the U.S. for now with as we said a pending decision from the Fed and hopes for the officials to take more measures to support growth, which already started to weigh on the dollar and supported the recovery from early intraday lows for crude. The USDIX is currently trading bearishly and down nearly 0.3% at 77.10 from the early high of 77.45. We still have confidence data from the euro area amid the focus on Greece and Italy followed by housing and inventory status data from the United States that will surely keep crude fluctuating till the end of the session attempting to sustain the upside momentum to recover some of the heavy losses recorded in the past two sessions. |
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krisluke
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20-Sep-2011 22:23
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As shown on the chart, oil dropped to breach the 86.50 ascending support of the wedge formation, the awaited breakout finally materialized. Currently, stochastic is clearly oversold, however, it crossed over positively within oversold area, therefore we might see a pullback to retest the breached support area, before resuming the downside move over intraday basis. Trading back above 88.00 shall threaten the reliability of the breakout. The trading range for the day is among the major support at 80.00 and the major resistance at 88.50. The short-term trend is to the downside with steady daily closing below 100.00 targeting 65.00. Support: 85.20, 84.50, 83.50, 83.00, 82.00 Resistance: 86.20, 86.50, 87.00, 87.50, 88.00 Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above we recommend selling oil around 87.00 targeting 85.10 and 83.00. Stop loss with four hour-closing above 88.00
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krisluke
Supreme |
20-Sep-2011 22:04
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BakerTech: Accounting treatment of 15% indirect stake in PPL Shipyard now in focus. The point of contention is whether a JV agreement signed in 2001 is still in force. This affects the expected cash payout to co’s sh/h after the sale of its PPL stake for $116.3m to a consortium which includes Yangzijiang. As of yet, the issue has not been resolved. Both SembMarine and former shareholder PPLH enjoyed equal board representation and voting rights but SembMarine has argued that the 50-50 voting split was moot after it increased its stake to 85% in 2003. On BakerTech’s books, the accounting treatment of PPL Shipyard changed from an “available-for-sale” asset to a JV in 2010 after legal proceedings commenced which affect the way BakerTech views PPL Shipyard in terms of ownership. |
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krisluke
Supreme |
20-Sep-2011 22:03
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SG O& M~~~ A veri brief sector report from credit suisse.
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eplepl
Master |
20-Sep-2011 17:07
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hey richman, have you sold your holding ?
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seanpent
Elite |
20-Sep-2011 16:29
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testing $4 as soon as tomorrow ? | ||||
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seanpent
Elite |
20-Sep-2011 16:19
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technically, very laggard ? heading back to $4, then $4.25 anytime soon ? |
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rotijai
Supreme |
19-Sep-2011 23:40
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master krisluke.. even kepcorp isnt annoucing new contracts.. i guess everyone's holding up..
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krisluke
Supreme |
19-Sep-2011 23:35
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 Sembawang Shipyard... ... SMOE .... ..... Jurong Shipyard ..... .... OR EVEN PPL
PLSSsss Announce NEW contracts... ... Resistance @ $3.86 Veri Veri Strong Support @ $3.60 .... .... ..... |
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marubozu1688
Veteran |
19-Sep-2011 22:47
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SembMar will drop further if $3.65 support is broken. http://mystocksinvesting.com/singapore-stocks/sembcorp-marine/sembcorp-marine-sembmarine-watch-this-3-65-support/ |
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krisluke
Supreme |
18-Sep-2011 18:14
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bryansng
Senior |
18-Sep-2011 01:19
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then im waiting for $8 :P
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Richman
Veteran |
17-Sep-2011 21:09
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Then I will be very happy... Hahaha... 
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