Last Updated : 02 November 2012 at 18:40 IST

 

Positive US non-farm pay roll data pulls Gold prices down by 1.10%

 

  NEW YORK (Commodity Online):  With US non-farm pay rolls staging a comeback to a seasonally adjusted 171K from 148K, against an expectation of 125K, gold prices on the Comex dipped sharply.

Last Updated : 02 November 2012 at 11:35 IST

 

'Spot Gold to find support at $1700/oz MCX at Rs 30800'

 

Source :Commodity Online Research desk

 

AHMEDABAD (Commodity Online):  Bullion in India eased on Friday as USD firmed but moves were muted due to uncertain economic outlook.

“Major support for spot gold is expected at $1700 an ounce and for MCX December gold at Rs.30800. MCX silver December contract is expected to trade in range of 59300-60000. Investors are staying focused on US Non-farm Employment change due this evening for clues on monetary policy.” said  Amrita Mashar, Manager-Research,  Commodity Online.

US Non-farm payrolls data is forecast to have positive impact on USD, but could prove to be bearish for bullion as it will cut expectation for additional quantitative easing.

Meqanwhile, gold traders are most bullish in 10 weeks according to Bloomberg as wave after wave of stimulus Sandys lash against the gold coast.

Eighteen of 27 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect gold prices to climb next week making bullish tone the most prominent since August 24.

Also, “data today may show while U.S. employers took on 125,000 workers in October, that wasn’t enough to keep the jobless rate from rising to 7.9 percent from 7.8 percent, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed byBloomberg.”

Last Updated : 02 November 2012 at 10:15 IST

Gold ebullient most in 10 weeks as stimulus Sandys hit the shores

Source :Bloomberg

  Commodity Online

The Central Banks across the world have developed a penchant to inject stimulus into the economy as the warp and weft of global socio-economic-political fabric is at a risk of getting tattered. And this penchant has got directly translated into an ebullient performance by bullion. Gold traders are most bullish in 10 weeks according to Bloomberg as wave after wave of stimulus Sandys lash against the gold coast.

Eighteen of 27 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect gold prices to climb next week making bullish tone the most prominent since August 24. 

The wave started off with Ben Bernanke opening QE floodgates and channelising $2.3 trillion in greenback in a debt purchase program from December 2008 through June 2011. Recently the floodgates were decided to be left open for unlimited time until the job markets took firm roots. This would mean a monthly dose of $40 billion for the economy in exchange for Mortgage Backed Securities.

This measure comes along with another round of bond purchase program to the tune of $45 billion announced last week.

Also, the Bank of Japan has provided the economy with 66 trillion yen with an additional firepower of 11 trillion yen added to it. It would also provide unlimited loans to banks to boost credit lending.

The European Central Bank or ECB has decided to buy bonds on an unlimited scale. Add to this, the $158 billion subways-to-roads construction plan floated by China and the picture becomes clear. One may even see the froth oozing from the side of the bull's mouth.

“Central banks are all very concerned about a depression, so they’re keeping monetary policies as loose as possible,” said Mark O’Byrne, the executive director of Dublin-based GoldCore Ltd., a brokerage that sells and stores everything from quarter-ounce British Sovereigns to 400-ounce bars toBloomberg  News.

“People are buying gold as a store of value to protect against currency depreciation.” he added.

Meanwhile, gold prices are poised to gain today as “data today may show while U.S. employers took on 125,000 workers in October, that wasn’t enough to keep the jobless rate from rising to 7.9 percent from 7.8 percent, according to the median forecast of economists  surveyed by Bloomberg.”

November tends to be seasonally bullish for Gold: UBS

Source :Commodity Online

  NEW YORK (Commodity Online):  October tends to be a seasonally negative month for gold but  November a seasonally bullish one, said Zurich based Investment Bank UBS in a snippet.

December  gold last traded up $8.00 at $1,720.00 an ounce  on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Spot gold was last quoted up $10.90 at $1,720.50.

“Monthly returns since the mid-1970s show an average gain of about 1.4% in November, the second strongest month in terms of seasonality,” the bank added.

The Swiss bank continued that, “this coincides with the most active period for physical markets,  particularly in India. Despite this year’s general disappointment with Indian gold demand, we still expect a further continuation of  the seasonality trade and therefore expect stronger gold prices in November, especially once we get the U.S. election out of the way. A President Obama re-election would be particularly supportive, not necessarily because he remains in office, but because the market uncertainty will be removed.”

Then participants can focus on the Dec. 11-12 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, with  UBS economists expecting the Fed to announce that Operation Twist will be replaced with a fourth round of quantitative easing, UBS concluded.

 

 

 

Three factors to impact Gold in November  

Source :Commodity Online

LONDON (Commodity Online):  The outcome of the US Presidential elections due on November 6, India festival season and whether Greece meets the requisite conditions for Eurozone aid will have major impact on gold prices in November, according to a note by Sharps Pixley, London.

In November, Europe will strive to keep Greece within the Euro zone and the Troika will have to decide if Greece meets the prerequisite conditions for a Euro 130 billion aid. The October Euro zone economic sentiment indicator came out at 84.5, slightly better than expected. Still the German Chancellor Merkel and the IMF Managing Director Lagarde both warned of the fragile global economy and the untenable debt levels in major economies.

Gold-backed ETF holdings are still at a record high level while there are signs that physical demand has increased in India and China. The Indian peak festival seasons which include Dussehra and Diwali and the marriage seasons may help to bolster gold prices from October to early next year.

After briefly climbing below $1700 recently, US Gold futures is rebounding to $1720 levels on Wednesday as uncertainty over global economic recovery, Eurozone crisis, central bank buying, festival demand in Asia continues to support prices.

For Comex Gold December, a bullish reversal looks emerging, with support having retained support levels near to $1700 in the past two months, according to Sreekumar Raghavan, Chief Commodity Strategist at Commodity Online. Gold could move higher but face resistance at $1750-60 levels. 

 

Last Updated : 01 November 2012 at 09:50 IST 

Positive China may curtail Gold, negative Greece to underpin

Source :Bloomberg, BBC   

 

LONDON (Commodity Online):  The north wind is finally catching on the Chinese sails, it seems as the Purchasing Manager's Index has stood in line with forecasts at 50.2 in October. This may spark a drop in gold prices, reports suggest. But the Eurozone crisis may underpin the prices and prevent it from going down beyond solid support levels.

A figure above 50 in PMI means economic expansion. Chinese industrial production, exports and retail sales rose in September facilitating the climb.

“We might see (gold) prices come off on improving data”, said Alexandra Knight, an analyst at National Australia Bank Ltd toBloomberg News. “Investors probably overreacted to central bank announcements for further stimulus. They were a bit too optimistic at the time, and we’re starting to see an unwinding of that.”

Meanwhile, as the news sets in December gold on the Comex is at $1721.95/oz, a marginal gain of 0.16% or $2.75 as of 9.21 am IST, Thursday. Silver for the same month is at $32.370, a gain of 0.17% or $.05.

However, the positive news from China may get eclipsed by negative news from Greece. In order not to lose a vote on the new round of austerity measures for Greek people, the coalition government there has postponed a vote on the same.

The austerity package envisages spending cuts for the 2013 budget, labour market reforms, and privatisation of state assets. Responding to this, a two-day general strike is in the offing next week.

" The central aim and demand of the unions is the rejection [by parliament] of unacceptable, destructive and coercive measures imposed by the troika [the European Commission, IMF and ECB]," the GSEE union, one of the principal participants in strike said and was quoted by  BBC.

The Greek economy is forecast to shrink 4.5% next year as per reports and if turns out to be true, by the end of 2013 the economy would have shrunk by a cumulative 22% since 2008.

 

Jim Willie CB - Golden Haarp & Allocated Gold Exposure

U.S. stock index futures pointed to a higher open for Wall Street as New York and a large chunk of the East Coast deal with power and transport problems amid the devastation left by the megastorm.

The dollar, meanwhile, edged lower. The dollar index, a measure of the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, fell 0.2% to 79.733. A weaker dollar tends to boost gold and other commodities priced in the currency. Silver futures rose 39 cents to $32.21 an ounce. Palladium futures rose $12.70 an ounce to $608.86, while platinum gained $17.90 to $1,571.50.