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Latest Forum Topics / FSL Trust    Last:0.043 --  Post Reply
FSL Trust - starting to see value in it
nickyng
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12-Jun-2010 16:17     
 
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 Alert Admin 		both are risky !!

holywolf50      ( Date: 12-Jun-2010 00:28) Posted:

wow nicely written.. i kinda agree with what you say.. they have 23 ships and i dont feel that the 2 ship will significantly impact the cashflow. the drop in the price is way too much.. i personally feel this shipping trust is way better then rickmers.



investor      ( Date: 11-Jun-2010 22:30) Posted:



There is no doubt that the technical trend is down, but from a fundamental point of view, it does not make sense for FSL to trade at suc a price.

First, their cash flow is approx US$16.3m per qtr. They paid out approx US$ 8m or more in dividend, approx US 1.5 cents per share, and they reduce their loan by approx US$8m last qtr.

THey have 23 ships, and if the 2 ships are permanently out of action ( which should not be the case), they will stand to lose about US$3.7m or so per qtr, which means that ehy will still have positive cash flow of US$12.6m

Assuming they continue to pay the bank US$8m per qtr, they still have aprox US$4m to pay out as dividends. Although DBS Vickers has downgraded the stock, they still have a dividend projection of US 3.9 cents for the whole year, which translates to a yield of  14.7 % !

ALso, they are in the process of completing an acquisition, using the funds of US$28m from a previous placement, which according to the CEO should yield 15 % or so on cost of funds deployed.

AT 0.37 cents, the price is comparable to Rickmers, and yet Rickmers recently cancelled the purchases of some ships and the penalty to them is US$65m !

It does not make sense for FSL to trade at the same price as Rickmers.

NAV of FSL Trust is approx 0.80 cents sing. ( I think)

SOme food for thought. Caveat Emptor. DO your own homework. Sentiment is obviously bearish, and as people imagine the worst scenario.

Not a call to buy/sell.

 
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investor
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12-Jun-2010 15:46     
 
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Apologies - the  statement ' huge appreciation of assets' should be 'huge depreciation of assets'.

 
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investor
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12-Jun-2010 15:41     
 
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A bit of  accounting here - First, FSL Trust is a business trust. This is a new entity incorporated, probably under MAS guidelines, just like City Spring is a business trust.

A business trust may show a loss in their Profit/Loss every year or just a nominal amount of profit, due to the huge appreciation of their assets, BUT their cash flow is huge, and under present guidelines, if you are registered as a business trust, you are allow to distribute dividends from your cash flow, even though you may show an ACCOUNTING loss. This is not allow for normal companies that are not registered as a business trust, ie  you cannot distribute divs in excess of your accounting P/L. (Please correct me, if I am wrong)

WHen you buy a business trust, like FSL or CitySpring, think of it like as if you are buying a property, you take a loan, the rental is enough to cover your interest, principal repayment, and at the end of the day, you may likely pay the loan at the end of the loan period, you still have the property.

However, in the case of Shipping trust, the ships (in the case of FSL, they are quite new), their lifespan may be 20-30 years ( I am not sure how long), and you have to ensure that the return, ie the yields are sufficient to compensate you for holding on. That is, are the approx 14 % yield (it may vary) enough for you to buy this stock - what happens after 20-30 yrs, when their ships depreciated ?, etc. 

As FSL is generating US$16.3m cash per qtr, their total cash flow is US$65m per yr, or US$50.2 m, less the revenue from the 2 ships, they can theoretically pay their US480m debts in 9.6 yrs, without distributing dividends to shareholders. (Currently they are paying down their debts by US$8m per qtr, ie US$32m per year)

If nothing happens the next few years, as they pay down their debt, the interest cost per year becomes lower and lower, and they probably can pay higher divs down the road.

BUT then, nobody pays off their loans without distributing dividends, as this would be unpalatable to shareholders.

In the case of REITS, they do not pay off their loans at all !, and the loans just get rollover.

Again, investing in Shipping trust, business trust, Reits, is a matter of looking at the risks vs returns, vs the returns that you are getting from the bank interest (which is very safe, but miserable returns).

Again, Caveat emptor - Not for the faint hearted. Not a call to but/sell.
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soloman
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12-Jun-2010 15:16     
 
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No - I just  came to know this stock through its current problems

But from the past postings, many people are trapped as its price plunge very fast ..............

They do not like to talk now , understandable.................

 



kingster      ( Date: 12-Jun-2010 14:35) Posted:

have u shorted alot of FSL?? Smiley

soloman      ( Date: 12-Jun-2010 08:44) Posted:

FSL HAS DEBTS OF APPROX US$480 MILLION

ITS RATINGS HAD BEEN CUT ALSO .........................................
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kingster
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12-Jun-2010 14:35     
 
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 Alert Admin 		have u shorted alot of FSL?? Smiley

soloman      ( Date: 12-Jun-2010 08:44) Posted:

FSL HAS DEBTS OF APPROX US$480 MILLION

ITS RATINGS HAD BEEN CUT ALSO .........................................



lsj840428      ( Date: 12-Jun-2010 01:51) Posted:

have u checked their current assets and current liabilities, every year distribute dividend, but the amount of dividend paid out more than what they have earned for the year ?????? Not too sure about it.........initially wanted to buy, but after looked at the amount of dividend paid and net profit earned for the relevant financial year, find it a bit weird...........all in all, dont know how they generate cash flow to distribute dividend........as quoted saying by warren buffett, "you are at risk when u dont know what u r doing" so decided not to vest for the time being............
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soloman
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12-Jun-2010 08:47     
 
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 Alert Admin 		ARE YOU VESTED IN FSL ??????????????????

investor      ( Date: 11-Jun-2010 22:30) Posted:



There is no doubt that the technical trend is down, but from a fundamental point of view, it does not make sense for FSL to trade at suc a price.

First, their cash flow is approx US$16.3m per qtr. They paid out approx US$ 8m or more in dividend, approx US 1.5 cents per share, and they reduce their loan by approx US$8m last qtr.

THey have 23 ships, and if the 2 ships are permanently out of action ( which should not be the case), they will stand to lose about US$3.7m or so per qtr, which means that ehy will still have positive cash flow of US$12.6m

Assuming they continue to pay the bank US$8m per qtr, they still have aprox US$4m to pay out as dividends. Although DBS Vickers has downgraded the stock, they still have a dividend projection of US 3.9 cents for the whole year, which translates to a yield of  14.7 % !

ALso, they are in the process of completing an acquisition, using the funds of US$28m from a previous placement, which according to the CEO should yield 15 % or so on cost of funds deployed.

AT 0.37 cents, the price is comparable to Rickmers, and yet Rickmers recently cancelled the purchases of some ships and the penalty to them is US$65m !

It does not make sense for FSL to trade at the same price as Rickmers.

NAV of FSL Trust is approx 0.80 cents sing. ( I think)

SOme food for thought. Caveat Emptor. DO your own homework. Sentiment is obviously bearish, and as people imagine the worst scenario.

Not a call to buy/sell.

 
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soloman
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12-Jun-2010 08:44     
 
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FSL HAS DEBTS OF APPROX US$480 MILLION

ITS RATINGS HAD BEEN CUT ALSO .........................................



lsj840428      ( Date: 12-Jun-2010 01:51) Posted:

have u checked their current assets and current liabilities, every year distribute dividend, but the amount of dividend paid out more than what they have earned for the year ?????? Not too sure about it.........initially wanted to buy, but after looked at the amount of dividend paid and net profit earned for the relevant financial year, find it a bit weird...........all in all, dont know how they generate cash flow to distribute dividend........as quoted saying by warren buffett, "you are at risk when u dont know what u r doing" so decided not to vest for the time being............


investor      ( Date: 11-Jun-2010 22:30) Posted:



There is no doubt that the technical trend is down, but from a fundamental point of view, it does not make sense for FSL to trade at suc a price.

First, their cash flow is approx US$16.3m per qtr. They paid out approx US$ 8m or more in dividend, approx US 1.5 cents per share, and they reduce their loan by approx US$8m last qtr.

THey have 23 ships, and if the 2 ships are permanently out of action ( which should not be the case), they will stand to lose about US$3.7m or so per qtr, which means that ehy will still have positive cash flow of US$12.6m

Assuming they continue to pay the bank US$8m per qtr, they still have aprox US$4m to pay out as dividends. Although DBS Vickers has downgraded the stock, they still have a dividend projection of US 3.9 cents for the whole year, which translates to a yield of  14.7 % !

ALso, they are in the process of completing an acquisition, using the funds of US$28m from a previous placement, which according to the CEO should yield 15 % or so on cost of funds deployed.

AT 0.37 cents, the price is comparable to Rickmers, and yet Rickmers recently cancelled the purchases of some ships and the penalty to them is US$65m !

It does not make sense for FSL to trade at the same price as Rickmers.

NAV of FSL Trust is approx 0.80 cents sing. ( I think)

SOme food for thought. Caveat Emptor. DO your own homework. Sentiment is obviously bearish, and as people imagine the worst scenario.

Not a call to buy/sell.

 
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lsj840428
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12-Jun-2010 01:51     
 
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 Alert Admin 		have u checked their current assets and current liabilities, every year distribute dividend, but the amount of dividend paid out more than what they have earned for the year ?????? Not too sure about it.........initially wanted to buy, but after looked at the amount of dividend paid and net profit earned for the relevant financial year, find it a bit weird...........all in all, dont know how they generate cash flow to distribute dividend........as quoted saying by warren buffett, "you are at risk when u dont know what u r doing" so decided not to vest for the time being............


investor      ( Date: 11-Jun-2010 22:30) Posted:



There is no doubt that the technical trend is down, but from a fundamental point of view, it does not make sense for FSL to trade at suc a price.

First, their cash flow is approx US$16.3m per qtr. They paid out approx US$ 8m or more in dividend, approx US 1.5 cents per share, and they reduce their loan by approx US$8m last qtr.

THey have 23 ships, and if the 2 ships are permanently out of action ( which should not be the case), they will stand to lose about US$3.7m or so per qtr, which means that ehy will still have positive cash flow of US$12.6m

Assuming they continue to pay the bank US$8m per qtr, they still have aprox US$4m to pay out as dividends. Although DBS Vickers has downgraded the stock, they still have a dividend projection of US 3.9 cents for the whole year, which translates to a yield of  14.7 % !

ALso, they are in the process of completing an acquisition, using the funds of US$28m from a previous placement, which according to the CEO should yield 15 % or so on cost of funds deployed.

AT 0.37 cents, the price is comparable to Rickmers, and yet Rickmers recently cancelled the purchases of some ships and the penalty to them is US$65m !

It does not make sense for FSL to trade at the same price as Rickmers.

NAV of FSL Trust is approx 0.80 cents sing. ( I think)

SOme food for thought. Caveat Emptor. DO your own homework. Sentiment is obviously bearish, and as people imagine the worst scenario.

Not a call to buy/sell.

 
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holywolf50
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12-Jun-2010 00:28     
 
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wow nicely written.. i kinda agree with what you say.. they have 23 ships and i dont feel that the 2 ship will significantly impact the cashflow. the drop in the price is way too much.. i personally feel this shipping trust is way better then rickmers.



investor      ( Date: 11-Jun-2010 22:30) Posted:



There is no doubt that the technical trend is down, but from a fundamental point of view, it does not make sense for FSL to trade at suc a price.

First, their cash flow is approx US$16.3m per qtr. They paid out approx US$ 8m or more in dividend, approx US 1.5 cents per share, and they reduce their loan by approx US$8m last qtr.

THey have 23 ships, and if the 2 ships are permanently out of action ( which should not be the case), they will stand to lose about US$3.7m or so per qtr, which means that ehy will still have positive cash flow of US$12.6m

Assuming they continue to pay the bank US$8m per qtr, they still have aprox US$4m to pay out as dividends. Although DBS Vickers has downgraded the stock, they still have a dividend projection of US 3.9 cents for the whole year, which translates to a yield of  14.7 % !

ALso, they are in the process of completing an acquisition, using the funds of US$28m from a previous placement, which according to the CEO should yield 15 % or so on cost of funds deployed.

AT 0.37 cents, the price is comparable to Rickmers, and yet Rickmers recently cancelled the purchases of some ships and the penalty to them is US$65m !

It does not make sense for FSL to trade at the same price as Rickmers.

NAV of FSL Trust is approx 0.80 cents sing. ( I think)

SOme food for thought. Caveat Emptor. DO your own homework. Sentiment is obviously bearish, and as people imagine the worst scenario.

Not a call to buy/sell.

 
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investor
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11-Jun-2010 22:30     
 
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There is no doubt that the technical trend is down, but from a fundamental point of view, it does not make sense for FSL to trade at suc a price.

First, their cash flow is approx US$16.3m per qtr. They paid out approx US$ 8m or more in dividend, approx US 1.5 cents per share, and they reduce their loan by approx US$8m last qtr.

THey have 23 ships, and if the 2 ships are permanently out of action ( which should not be the case), they will stand to lose about US$3.7m or so per qtr, which means that ehy will still have positive cash flow of US$12.6m

Assuming they continue to pay the bank US$8m per qtr, they still have aprox US$4m to pay out as dividends. Although DBS Vickers has downgraded the stock, they still have a dividend projection of US 3.9 cents for the whole year, which translates to a yield of  14.7 % !

ALso, they are in the process of completing an acquisition, using the funds of US$28m from a previous placement, which according to the CEO should yield 15 % or so on cost of funds deployed.

AT 0.37 cents, the price is comparable to Rickmers, and yet Rickmers recently cancelled the purchases of some ships and the penalty to them is US$65m !

It does not make sense for FSL to trade at the same price as Rickmers.

NAV of FSL Trust is approx 0.80 cents sing. ( I think)

SOme food for thought. Caveat Emptor. DO your own homework. Sentiment is obviously bearish, and as people imagine the worst scenario.

Not a call to buy/sell.

 
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soloman
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11-Jun-2010 20:44     
 
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 Alert Admin 		This one can go below 30 cts .....................
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nickyng
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11-Jun-2010 14:57     
 
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 Alert Admin 		who care if 3rd ship being seized or not.....hee...as long as opportunity to SHORT ! short and make $$ then run ! :P not say 36cts...even 26cts oso possibl e :P

Jackpot2010      ( Date: 11-Jun-2010 14:53) Posted:

wanted to but didn't bcos i m a long guy - wasted man!. How come drop like dead to historic low 36c - was a 3rd ship seized? U see if 2 ships seized, then all creditors being alerted will act simultaneously. It will be suspended soon.....

nickyng      ( Date: 11-Jun-2010 14:30) Posted:

did any1 SHORT as advice few days earlier when their 2nd ship got seized ?!?! hee....36.5cts...GOSH!! :)


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freeme
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11-Jun-2010 14:56     
 
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 Alert Admin 		yes.. just wait until it hit near 34 then consider
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Jackpot2010
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11-Jun-2010 14:53     
 
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 Alert Admin 		wanted to but didn't bcos i m a long guy - wasted man!. How come drop like dead to historic low 36c - was a 3rd ship seized? U see if 2 ships seized, then all creditors being alerted will act simultaneously. It will be suspended soon.....

nickyng      ( Date: 11-Jun-2010 14:30) Posted:

did any1 SHORT as advice few days earlier when their 2nd ship got seized ?!?! hee....36.5cts...GOSH!! :)

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ianong
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11-Jun-2010 14:33     
 
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2 ships seized, just how serious is it? How many ships FSLT has?? Anyone can advice? Tks!
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nickyng
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11-Jun-2010 14:30     
 
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 Alert Admin 		did any1 SHORT as advice few days earlier when their 2nd ship got seized ?!?! hee....36.5cts...GOSH!! :)
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lowchia
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10-Jun-2010 23:17     
 
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Today, FSL Trust managed to hold onto its support at $0.39 despite of high selling volume of 3.62 million shares traded.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days.  Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

In addition, 3 bearish patterns such as 2 falling window and 1 separating lines over this week has affirmed to this bearish thinking.

Both RSI & MACD indicators are bearish as MACD line perform a “cross down” and RSI at oversold region.

Important Resistance of FSL Trust: $0.42

Immediate Support of FSL Trust: $0.39

FSL Trust already fallen pass all the 200/100/50days MA.

We would not encourage anyone to buy this counter at all.

FSL long term charts shows nothing but just a “reverse bathtub” which is very bearish.

But in case where people who are already vested and not willing to cut loss then we would suggest monitoring the support at $0.39. Average down at the $0.39 if this support can hold at least for few trading days. But important note is that the trading volume must be back to normal before entry.

SEE CHARTS AND ANALYSIS FOR GOLDEN AGRI

People who are not vested really need to keep out of this stocks....i see the chart and i almost faint liao.

This counter can fight with raffles education loh and i got friends got trap in this stock. :(
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soloman
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10-Jun-2010 19:17     
 
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DBS VICKERS

PRICE TARGET : 36 CTS



soloman      ( Date: 10-Jun-2010 18:33) Posted:



THIS ONE STILL GOING DOWN ...................

ANYONE HOLDING THIS STCOK CARE TO SHARE .....................................
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soloman
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10-Jun-2010 18:33     
 
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THIS ONE STILL GOING DOWN ...................

ANYONE HOLDING THIS STCOK CARE TO SHARE .....................................
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178investors
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09-Jun-2010 22:25     
 
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ipo-ed in usd, subsequently i think move to sgd.



soloman      ( Date: 09-Jun-2010 22:12) Posted:

THE STOCK PRICE HAS COLLAPSE ..................

soloman      ( Date: 09-Jun-2010 22:11) Posted:



IS THIS SHARE IN SING DOLLAR OR US$ ?
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