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Property and it prices - Outlook for 2008
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DnApeh
Master |
22-May-2008 20:22
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Have u tried bank's auction? Sometimes got very good units going for cheap prices. Don't bother about owner's sale.
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jm2212
Senior |
22-May-2008 18:27
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i think one has to make some calculations to make sure he/she can service the loan, so it doesnt really matter if price will be corrected short term. of course bargain hunting and careful selection is still important. | ||||
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AK_Francis
Supreme |
22-May-2008 18:07
Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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Quite high price for prop last yr. Bought alrdy fine, not that bad. Those not, give you a tab, no hassle. The pointers are the prop arms performance such as Citydev, Capld, Kepld etc. AK bought Kepld around Fed this yr, thought price reasonable, but looking at them these few days, seem like not bottom yet. Dumped 10 painfully with some loses, but keep the other half, hopefully this burger foreign prop will bring in profit, in time to come. | ||||
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jm2212
Senior |
22-May-2008 17:58
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few of us pooled together and bought about quite a number of units (at different locations) last year, sold some and kept the remaining, all rented out now. the current price is still above our purchased price, we're ok. we scored well on those commercial properties, they've gone up alot. personally dont think the market will collapse, still optimistic and will continue to look around for some good buy.
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winsontkl
Elite |
22-May-2008 17:37
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Hi All, In the near term, Siam most property counters ... Would like to hear your opinion of Capitaland and Ho Bee.....thanks. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
22-May-2008 01:16
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Hopes that a slowdown in Singapore's property market is temporary are fading as an uncertain economic outlook and a looming housing glut threaten to plunge the sector into a prolonged downturn. Homebuilders such as CapitaLand , Keppel Land and GuocoLand have delayed launching new projects in the moribund market, taking a hit to Q1earnings as they hoped for a rebound later this year. Prospects could be dented further in coming months if smaller developers face financing troubles and have to unload properties at massive discounts. Some have gorged themselves on expensive land acquisitions over the past 2 years. With home prices expected to fall 30 to 40% over the next 3 years, Singapore's developers could be badly hit and analysts may slash their earnings estimates further. "This is the start of a multi-year price correction. Private residential property prices could easily fall by up to 30% by '10," said Barclays Capital economist Leong Wai Ho. Credit Suisse in a report this month saw rents and property prices falling even more steeply by as much as 40%, and downgraded its investment recommendation for the sector to "underweight". Warning signs have been flashing as 1Q08 sales volumes slumped to the lowest in 5 years and price growth slowed for 2 straight quarters, with concerns about a global economic slowdown and the US subprime mortgage crisis scaring off potential homebuyers. Leong said an impending oversupply will worsen the problem, with 66,000 new homes expected to be completed over the next 4 years, against forecast demand for 50,000 in the same period. The 3-month Singapore Interbank Offered Rate - a benchmark for mortgage loans - has fallen to near record lows below 1.3%, but that may not be enough to revive buyers' flagging confidence, economists say. "Negative real interest rates will be at best a cushion, rather than a boost to housing demand in the near term, although they could lift property demand if and when sentiment turns," said Citi analyst Kit Wei Zheng. "The worst is yet to come and price cuts are imminent, as the holding power of property players is weakening and speculative demand is diminishing," said ABN AMRO analyst Fera Wirawan. BNP Paribas has flagged high financial risks for small developers including Bt Sembawang, Low Keng Huat, and Lian Beng , which have almost all their debts due within a year. Even major builders such as Allgreen, KepLand and GuocoLand could face difficulties after steep drops in profit in the last quarter as they launch fewer projects, analysts say. Slower sales and rising costs could raise developers' gearing or debt-to-equity ratio to dangerous levels above 70%, up from the industry average of about 62%. "We identify 3 developers, namely Allgreen, GuocoLand and Keppel Land, that could face some pressures on cash flow," JPMorgan analyst Christopher Gee said in a report, noting that gearing levels could be pushed up to between 80 and 130%. The risk of price falls has been heightened by property speculators buying in recent years with little upfront cash, relying on a deferred payment scheme. The government scrapped the scheme last Oct in a bid to cool down the sector. Analysts expect speculators will dispose of about 700 units on the cheap this year, and another 2,000 next year, as the properties near completion and installments are due. "Forced selling may become widespread next year as speculators with weak bargaining power may not be able to afford the installment payments," said Wirawan. Some developers are still counting on home prices to rise for at least another year, as they see the market in the middle of an upswing even as the US housing market grapples with its worst downturn since the Great Depression. "This is a temporary hiccup. We just had a boom starting in '06 and it's usually a 7-year cycle," property tycoon Kwek Leng Beng, who heads Singapore's No. 2 developer CityDev , told Reuters. The property market will be supported by greater foreign investments as S'pore sees the completion of 2 casino projects and the influx of major events such as Formula 1 races and the Youth Olympics over the next few years, Kwek argued. But Barclays' Leong said his bearish scenario, which calls for a near 1/3 drop in property value, already takes into account any boost resulting from these economic developments. "It's not the worst-case scenario. This is the most likely scenario based on the numbers," he said |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
21-May-2008 21:25
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Quick show of hands... how many of you bought a property in the last year? I was really tempted to do so last year but the spiralling and ridiculous prices made me more cautious. |
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arowana1
Member |
21-May-2008 16:51
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imho, the news on the spiral is juz sensational reporting. how many units are there in a 150 storey tower? out of almost 40 singapore buyers, 20+ backed out. i mean, sinkies are kiasu by nature, so im expecting them to pull out... cityview... i heard 2/3 who took q to buy did not take up the units. dats a higher drop out rate?
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teeth53
Supreme |
21-May-2008 16:47
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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This is what i mean...sharing my thought (tot). delaying it due to reason is private equity fund has yet to consolidate those deals, might be "all CASH out". Yet another story said 2-thirds backed out buying World's tallest condo in US after US sub-prime crisis took a bad turn for the worst. ....Hit badly by many Singaporean buyers pulling out. Does not sound upbeat to me, in my own tot. |
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teeth53
Supreme |
21-May-2008 16:36
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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http://business.asiaone.com/Business/My%2BMoney/Property/Story/A1Story20080520-65958.html More news Just FYI: Pre-sold projects lend support as developers undergo correction.......interested, read on...... ended of it, it mentioned factoring in this a 20 % correction for high - end segment and 13% for mid -end segment and for mass market, a 5% correction. |
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teeth53
Supreme |
21-May-2008 16:25
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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Meanwhile hot on the news in Straits Times paper main back page, Money page H18. It read this way. Heading South ? for Bank see plunge in home prices in the next teo years. New homes, rising vancancy rates, unsold condos and fewer rental deals cited as reason. Some developments where sub-sale units - those bought and resold before completion - have fallen in prices. six myhs ago City Dev and other give zero commissions to agent, now it give 1 to 5 %. whem Developer reach out to agent, U know it is painful $$$ (no choice). The pain is coming from slower growth in home rents and prices as the effect take it toll from US sub-prime mortgage crisis on amrket sentiment in S'pore. So think CD chief will have to wait a little longer then he like to.......or another word those who think 1 2 sell their property choice home, better do so.... then wait it out. Pen ur tot. thk Qs |
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teeth53
Supreme |
21-May-2008 15:43
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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Got this in turn from Pikachu, refer to Property Bubble ? (SJ) forum. #1. There was no demand for housing when the boom started. The vacancy rates on existing housing were above New York, London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and other major urban market levels. A Singapore property boom made no sense at all. #2. Singapore GDP...nice impressive numbers. But the growth was 99% construction related. There is no economic growth when the construction boom ends and those numbers are subtracted from the total. #3. The existing luxury housing vacancy levels in Singapore were adequate to fill the needs of Singaporeans and any possible influx of new senior executives for the next 5 years. Thus, there was no demand for executive luxury housing in the market. #4. Value for money on Singapore property for foreign investors is not good when compared to other projected growth economies. (several factors are weighed including psf, quality of workmanship, size of economy, projected growth of economy, lifestyle and culture of the market.) #4. The targeted future population numbers of Singapore are pie in the sky and completely without substance. Singaporeans are not having kids and the demand for jobs in Singapore will be service led lower paying jobs to supply the planned tourism developments. Non of these new inhabitants will be buying or renting condo's, especially in the high-end. And tourists visit, they don't buy or rent. #5. Singapore is not a supply/demand driven economy. It is a small, managed economy. Thus, the property development plans were lofty, risky, and not based on future real supply/demand realities. #6. There is a lack of real, transparent, objective information available in the Singapore market about the Singapore market. This leads to investors belief in hype and speculation rather than economic principles. #7. Global money supplies and markets are taking a beating and will continue to take a beating. The second call on the sub prime products happens this June so more big losses are expected. This will stall or even damage the Singapore economy. We expect distress sales in the property market to start soon. The high-end rental market is non-existent and the higher % of all unit sales were high-end investment property, speculator driven. |
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teeth53
Supreme |
19-May-2008 10:23
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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Hi HLJ, In deed, there are people's who tot buying choice property can make ton of money (speculating), now they who cannot roll off their payment will have to lose ton of money by insisting not to let go when there is a slim chance, for whatever reason....Due to lack of sustaining and contiunous progress payment, worst still if one have to borrow from bank. Just sharing my tot.
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HLJHLJ
Veteran |
19-May-2008 01:30
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Hi Teeth53, Indeed, it all depends on demand and supply. Spore property and STI seem to be holding quite well in this imminent recession. I've seen few recessions before and normally STI and spore property saw worst fates. I'm scratching my head as well. Hope it won't buckle later on if things get worst. Not sure myself. Personally, I think property is a big committment, so must really think thrice before committing. I think the best time to go in is when everybody is dazed and negative like the days during Sars, financial crisis etc. Other than that, think thrice. To some, it can be a lifelong committment if mistakes were made. Stocks investment is better is it is not a big lump sum one. It can be broken in smaller portions over time. Can cut loss easily etc. I think we should buy property to stay, unless we have spares for a 2nd one. If 2nd property is a burden, don't do it. Chinese has a saying "Once a mistake is made, it becomes a thousand year regret". How true.
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teeth53
Supreme |
17-May-2008 14:02
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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Hi HLJ, Many is high mobile and at anytime move if it see that they cannot make $$$ here. While those cannot move will make end meet regardless of...... Back to REITS and property: Reit market may see mergers and privatisation as it matures (in ST paper page-S40 Sat May, 2008). there are " 3 to 5 Reits in Singapore that seem obvious" for acquisittion or privatisation, delaying it due to reason is private equity fund has yet to consolidate those deals, might be "all CASH out". Does not sound upbeat to me, in my own tot. Yet another story said 2-thirds backed out buying World's tallest condo in US after US sub-prime crisis took a bad turn for the worst. ....Hit badly by many Singaporean buyers pulling out. Yet few day back CDL Chief Mr Kwek Leng Beng, he said Prospects wise, still sound and remain upbeat about the property scence in Singapore. Q? is how long this will hold out, this Q, next Q or next year... is a Question of supply and demand |
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HLJHLJ
Veteran |
17-May-2008 09:15
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I'm am a new member. Just my opinion on Singapore property. I think it is too expensive compared to last time. However, people are buying on IR, F1 potentials, population going to 5.5M as well as more immigrants working in Spore. We must note that if all these factors go away or diminish due to weaker economy, then reality will step in. I think the ultimate factor is still the economy and the increased in population. But the bottom line is if economy is no good, people will not come to stay here. Majority are here to make ends make. If there is nothing to be made here, they will go elsewhere. |
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AK_Francis
Supreme |
16-May-2008 09:29
Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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Heng dumped half of Kepld, with losses, though will be collecting div on 21 May. | ||||
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teeth53
Supreme |
16-May-2008 09:05
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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On the same page...CDL Chief. Mr Kwek Leng Beng is waiting for his right time to venture further into property investment, he's one of the panellist at the Financial Times Asia Property Summit and he said Prospects wise, still sound and remain upbeat about the property scence in Singapore. Q? is how long this will hold out, this Q, next Q or next year... is a Question of supply and demand. |
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teeth53
Supreme |
16-May-2008 08:49
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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Just FYI: Friday May 16, 2008. (contagion effects...keynote speech held at Financial Times Asia Property Summit) On today Straits Times paper, it published on Page (Money page - H28) it said Further drop in new home sales and launches in April 2008. Prices also show signs of weakning as buyers adopt a more cautious stance. New home sales falling to their lowest level in at least 10 months. Sales volumes and median prices also dipped, according to monthly figures released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA). Yet...on same page published, it mentioned US sub-prime crisis is hurting Asian property: GIC as according to report by news agency. Reuters. |
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teeth53
Supreme |
30-Apr-2008 09:35
Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life " |
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On today Straits Times paper, it published on back Page (Money page - H24) is said CapitalCommercial Trust (CCT) is deferring its planned redevelopment of Market Street carpark into a $1.0 bil - $1.5 billion premuim office building dut to volatile market and rising cost in building construction..office tower. Now, a decision was announced, a decision will be made not earlier than mid 2009. |
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