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It's time to rebound ????
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gnsmj5056
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21-Apr-2013 06:19
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This is taken from from punters gallery forum which supports my earlier posting:
Baker Tech: Charting New Growth Path ( S$0.44, UNRATED)
Jason Saw (+65 6232 3871, jason.saw@sg.oskgroup.com) Lee Yue Jer (+65 6232 3898, yuejer.lee@sg.oskgroup.com) We met up with the management team of Baker Tech (BTL) and came away with a positive view on BTL’s strategic plans. In the mid-term, BTL’s expansion into rig ownership through Discovery Offshore (DISC) will drive EPS growth in FY13-14F. DISC could be eyeing more rigs and BTL might continue to raise its stake in DISC. BTL trades at FY12 excash core P/E of 11.5x and could compress to 6.2x in FY14F. Unrated. Company background: BTL has two distinct business units: i) Sea Deep Shipyard, a wholly owned subsidiary, is involved in the manufacturing of specialised equipments for offshore assets and ii) 20.16% stake in DISC, a pure play rig owner listed in Oslo. DISC has two KFELS A Class rigs under construction, which are expected to be delivered in Jul 2013 and Oct 2013. Focusing on existing rig component business and rig ownership. BTL is looking to expand its existing rig component business with a view to carry out on-site upgrade/maintenance work. Armed with a cash balance of SGD99m (post dividend), we believe BTL could also raise its stake in Discovery Offshore, allowing the company to add more rigs to its existing fleet of two units. Sales of rig equipments should remain steady. BTL’s equipment unit, Sea Deep, has an order book of USD49m. Management is confident to replenish its order book and is optimistic that the current jackup cycle will be longer but the pace of newbuild orders will be lower than the upcycle seen in 2007-08. We estimate DISC to add SGD12m to FY14 net profit. As the jackup market is tight, we believe DISC could easily secure charters for the two KFELS Super A Class rigs before they are delivered. We estimate that each jackup rig can generate an annual net profit of USD24m to DISC. BTL’s 20% stake allows them to recognised USD4.8m (SGD6m) per rig per annum. Valuation: Trades at 11.5x FY12 ex-cash core P/E. Sea Deep can deliver a steady annual net profit of SGD14.6m. Adding that to our estimate of SGD12m net profit from DISC in FY14, this will raise BTL’s FY14F net profit to SGD26m, translating into FY14F ex-cash P/E of 6.2x. Please feel free to comment on the above-mentioned write up.
Thanks and best regards
Vested
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gnsmj5056
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21-Apr-2013 03:49
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Hi 1. For those who are able to attend the AGM, you might want to question on the revenue stream coming from         Discovery Offshore SA(current share price, NOK 13.25) in which BTL has 20% stake.  Background info   Per attached: http://discovery.mwnewsroom.com/Presentations on " Pareto Securities Oil and Offshore    Conference 2012" .   The extimated average income from the high spec jack up rig ( costing USD 230M) can rake in USD 80+M per year(per day rental at USD0.223M)  for average rental of 21 months contract duration. 2. In comparison, Asia Offshore Drilling which have a headstart (look at its share price at NOK 28) using Mod V B class B  jack up rig(each costing USD 50M) already have 3 units built by KFELS . 3. Thus barring unforeseen circumstances, future revenue stream for BTL, in addition to its primary business in Deep Sea etc, from DISC. Offshore looks very promising indeed. Best regards Vested
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hp3000
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19-Apr-2013 22:01
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As this is the 1st time it give so good dividend. The Question is will it be continue to give good dividend or stuck after XD.  |
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RBC1616
Member |
19-Apr-2013 18:44
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Maybe late buying as pple wanted to roll their $$$ at other counter 1st & coming in close to XD? | |||||||
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WanSiTong
Master |
19-Apr-2013 12:47
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Oop! Ex-date is 7/5 and not 5/7.
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WanSiTong
Master |
19-Apr-2013 12:00
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AGM date is 25/4, Dividend Ex-date is 5/7 ! Only left 2 working weeks !! Yao mai jiu kuai !!!
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WanSiTong
Master |
19-Apr-2013 11:50
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Most likely (99.99% )   the dividend will be approved !
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WanSiTong
Master |
19-Apr-2013 10:07
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AGM will be held on 25/4 (Thu), by the time it will be confirmed. http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_3EB0880960FA961948257B44002B9747/$file/Baker2013.pdf?openelement
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gnsmj5056
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14-Apr-2013 10:11
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Hi 1.Can anyone give comments on the doubts expressed that maybe the 10c dividends may not be approved ?     Some people are buying into this counter due to the attractive dividends( I am one of them) because when they look into SGX -   the BTL(568) comes with CD(cum dividends).. 2. Regarding the COO dumping shares and is still dumping .. my hypothesis is he is now - 65/66 years old and maybe calling it a day. BTL appears to be not paying very high salary for their top executives but giving them performance shares and/or warrants. Therefore he could be cashing out this 'make up' to the low salary he is getting. 3. Next earnings announcement (1Q2013) seems to be on 25 April 2013 as per Bloomberg:    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BTL:SP   Thanks and best regards Vested  |
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WanSiTong
Master |
03-Apr-2013 15:38
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WanSiTong
Master |
03-Apr-2013 10:18
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cheong arrrrrrrrrrrrr !! | |||||||
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WanSiTong
Master |
02-Apr-2013 09:14
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Slow but steady.... ,1 day up half a cent !!   TP not too far away !
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tea444u
Master |
30-Mar-2013 12:24
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52.5 cents coming....   a lot of wind here... got one even saying wont reach 42 cents liaw??? wwhat was that about???
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nqing87
Veteran |
30-Mar-2013 01:41
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Thanks for sharing:D good luck to those vested.. 
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qwertyuiop00
Veteran |
30-Mar-2013 01:22
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actually, take a look at recent announcements by baker, COO has been dumping shares in the market, in thousands, ever since the day it shot up to 48.5c, which i believe is the main cause for it to drop back to 0.415/0.42. so until the COO has completely dumped the shares in the market, price will most likely remain stable and not shoot up so soon yet, but from what i see, it definitely wont reach the 0.42 level anymore. vested, since last year when it won the case against sembmar. was already predicting baker to give special div since 1 yr ago. my comments might seem a bit biased, since i'm vested but anyway, i target at least 0.6 before XD. if it doesnt hit 0.6, i will still sell off before XD, cos i believe it should drop more than the dividend payout after XD
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nqing87
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30-Mar-2013 00:12
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lol if the price after CD is same as during CD, i wont mind getting vested a while to get the dividend lol.. but i think if they are going ahead with the 10 cents dividend, i think when XD, the price will plunge likely, in normal sense..
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Octavia
Elite |
29-Mar-2013 23:49
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I find it  more prudent  to analyse the fundamental aspect of the company  over the scenarios. The NAV of this stock is 36.6c(31Dec12)  based on its latest finanical report.I think based on the current price of 45c is fairly priced with CD.I believe it may move a tad higher closer to the XD date subjected to market sentiments as well.The worrying part is how fast  the price  can climb back  to before the XD for this small cap stock.I am more confident for other big cap stocks like SPH,bank counters or Venture.For this after the XD,the price might just stagnant there for ages ending up a zero sum game...lol
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nqing87
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29-Mar-2013 23:08
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i was questioning if market is smart to predict the dividend months ago, not at the moment when news release.. when the news of dividend release, it shot up to 48.5 cents.. i was expecting it to rise after the release of this news and it happen.. it wasnt about the rise, rather it's about the drop back to it's original level, which i didnt expect it so.. the rise is probably to account for the 10cents news, but the fall makes not much sense to me, and that's why it leads me to think probably the dividend not confirmed yet, that's why people stand at side line right now after the initial euphoria.. of course sometimes got insider news and rumours which propel a stock up even before the news release.. so probably there are 2 scenario, 1 is that market already factor in the dividend months ago when somehow ppl have the insider news, and push the price to 40+cents, before the dividend news, and makes the 48.5 cents after news release just a temporary blip.. 2nd is as what i said earlier, that is maybe ppl not sure if they going to 100% approved the dividend.. in the case where ppl haven factor in the dividend, then i thought it is free money.. get the dividend, then sell it after CD (and pray that u dont make a loss of around 10cents when selling)..
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Octavia
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29-Mar-2013 22:49
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That is your perception what you want the market to behave.But it doesnt work this way. How to explain why before the announcement of 10c CD the stock price was 42c and it shot up to 48.5 and retreated to a low of 41.5?Are you going to  shout at  the market for being stupid?  
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nqing87
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29-Mar-2013 22:20
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hmmm so that's how it works even if they said recommend dividend for approval? this was what was written on the document: " The Directors are pleased to recommend a tax exempt (one-tier) first and final dividend of 1.5 cents per share (2011: 1 cent per share) and a tax exempt (one-tier) special dividend of 8.5 cents per share (2011: Nil) in respect of the financial year ended 31 December 2012 for approval by shareholders at the next Annual General Meeting to be convened."   Base on what this statement said, there wouldnt be any legality wrong for them to retract the 10 cents dividend if they decided to.. it's not like they saying they will give the dividend.. if it is really approved and that they are liable to give, then it wouldnt really make sense for baker to remain stagnant around this price, unless people have already foresee 10cents dividend months ago.. is market so smart that they can predict 10cents dividend accurately mths ago? 
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