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Ezra
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joshconsultancy
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05-Nov-2007 11:15
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musicwhiz5, correct me if i am wrong. The bonus issue is in substance a share split. Both result in increase in outstanding shares and no dilution in substance, right? 
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Pinnacle
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05-Nov-2007 11:15
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yes, true in certain sense. But perception in their business do not change overnight since Erza has make known of their direction sometimes ago. It need a more shaking news to cause the price to pluge this much. |
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musicwhiz5
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05-Nov-2007 11:00
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Past performance cannot act as a guide for future performance, this is my belief. I never take what happens in the past (i.e. uptrend after 1:5 bonus) as an indication that the same thing will occur again. As I have said often before, share prices move in tandem with business fundamentals and earnings expectations. Currently, Ezra faces a lot of uncertainty in trying to fund its new acquisitions and it is also moving into a new business area (i.e. fabrication) which it may not be familiar with. The market should therefore discount its growth prospects by an appropriate % to reflect this increased uncertainty. I will think that a price below $2.50 offers a margin of safety, but this is just my estimate of intrinsic value based on core recurring EPS. As for short-term price fluctuations, who cares ? Mr. Market has mood swings more often than not, let's not be bothered by his moods, but seek to take advantage of them instead. Cheers. |
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Pinnacle
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05-Nov-2007 10:51
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musicwhiz5. You are right. Its a bonus issue, so should not cause a big sell down ley. In 2006, the bonus share caused a hugh uptrend. What happen now? |
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musicwhiz5
Senior |
05-Nov-2007 10:26
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Hi all, kindly read the announcement on April 9, 2007 carefully. This is a bonus issue of 1:1, not a share split of 1 share into 2 shares. Regards. |
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stockwhizz76
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05-Nov-2007 10:12
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cool... hopefully the stock split will make it more attractive to investors then. |
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mediacraze
Member |
05-Nov-2007 10:08
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Yup... Share split 1 to 2. 
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stockwhizz76
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05-Nov-2007 09:59
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it's a one to two split? |
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Pinnacle
Master |
05-Nov-2007 09:12
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A sharpe drop in price. Share split, the price also drop in half. |
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joshconsultancy
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30-Oct-2007 20:50
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hello all, ezra is splittin share is "in substance". Based on Jiutian and goldenagri, i would say the increase volume to come will create some upward momentum. While stock lasts this wk!! 
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Pinnacle
Master |
25-Oct-2007 14:21
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If you shorted SPC this morning, you will be laughing all the bank to the bank already. |
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nickyng
Supreme |
25-Oct-2007 14:18
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wow..gd for u..i think OIL counter cheonging soon siah...Marine related too..hee...wonder shld i SHORT STX ??????!?! yo yo up n down 20-30cts siah :P |
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Pinnacle
Master |
25-Oct-2007 14:15
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ChinaOilField? Cut loss long time ago. But Erza covered my loss. Just now make a bit of kopi $$$ out of SPC.
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nickyng
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25-Oct-2007 14:12
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hi pinacle, just curious...u still holding to ur ChinaOilField huh??? the current price dont look favourable to u siah :P waiting eagerly to SHORT STX..hee |
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Pinnacle
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25-Oct-2007 13:56
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CLSA - EZRA SP - BUY, 8.50 tgt *We are increasing our target price for Ezra by 16% to S$8.50. *There are 2 drivers for the increase in target price: 1)The addition of options for 7 new deepwater AHTS and MFSV, which we expect the company to exercise before year end. With these 7 new vessels Ezra's fleet will grow from 24 vessels currently to 45 in FY10, adding 183% in horsepower capacity by 2010. As a result, we believe that revenues from business can grow by 41% annually for the next 3 years. 2)We doubled our revenue expectations from the Vietnamese yards to S$180m in FY09 on the back of Ezra obtaining its first big contract. Moreover, revenues from the Vietnamese yard can increase significantly in the next few years as the yards will have the capacity to generate S$450-600m in revenues per year. *Risks to our view include delays in vessel delivery and a weakening US$dollar. *Ezra remains my top pick in the space and currently holds 22% upside to my TP and the potential for a special dividend in FY08. BUY. |
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Pinnacle
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18-Oct-2007 17:38
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Had make some kopi $$$ here to cover my loss on other counters. Net off, what a day of wasted effort. My broking firm must be laughing to the bank as either way, they make $$$ out of our trades. |
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yokoosi
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18-Oct-2007 10:18
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Anyone care to explain? At this price level and with such returns, wouldn't we be better off if we invest in high div stocks like SPH, SMRT, etc.? |
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musicwhiz5
Senior |
18-Oct-2007 10:02
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According to my preliminary analysis, Ezra is over-valued at current levels based on recurrent core earnings. Will be doing a more in-depth analysis and review soon, but it appears even forward PER is very demanding at current market prices. Thus, I conclude there is insufficient margin of safety for investment at today's price levels. Disclaimer: This is my personal opinion, not an inducement to buy/sell. |
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stockwhizz76
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18-Oct-2007 09:20
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not related to musiczwhiz5. not much push from Ezra today. |
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Pinnacle
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18-Oct-2007 08:33
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Record oil rally stalls as OPEC mulls actionNEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil's record rally stalled on Wednesday after an OPEC minister said the group could not rule out another output hike and may call an early formal meeting next month in Saudi Arabia. U.S. crude settled down 21 cents at $87.40 a barrel -- its first loss in seven sessions -- after touching a fresh record $89 earlier in the day. London Brent crude fell 42 cents to $83.13 a barrel. Oil prices have climbed more than 10 percent since last week on fears of a winter supply crunch, a weakening dollar, and rising tensions between Turkey and Kurdish rebels in Iraq. Nigeria's oil minister told Reuters Wednesday that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries could call a formal meeting November 17 when ministers meet in Saudi Arabia for a heads of state conference, nearly three weeks earlier than planned. He added he could not rule out a production hike. "There will be a meeting of ministers, initially informally, but there may be a formal meeting," Minister Odein Ajumogobia said. "We are still a month away and it depends what transpires before then." OPEC's next scheduled formal meeting is scheduled for December 5 in the United Arab Emirates. The group already has agreed to boost output by 500,000 barrels per day starting November 1. U.S. Energy Secretary Sam Bodman said Wednesday that high oil prices were of "great concern" to the administration of President George W. Bush. The United States' economy is already facing headwinds from the meltdown in the subprime mortgage market, and experts said soaring energy costs could worsen the economic outlook. "Given the long-term risks of security-related disruptions to the global oil market, it would be very wrong to write off oil-induced recessions as a thing of the past," said Gilles Moec, an economist at Bank of America. Oil's rally earlier in the day to $89 a barrel was propelled by news Turkey's parliament granted its troops permission to launch an attack against Kurdish rebels inside Iraqi territory, despite international pressure. The tensions dimmed hopes for a recovery in Iraqi oil exports via Turkey, which have been sporadic since 2003. But traders say the greater fear is the risk of further unsettling the Middle East region, source of a third of the world's oil. Surging oil prices, also driven by an inflow of investor money, have approached their $90.46-per-barrel inflation-adjusted peak of 1980, the year after the Iranian revolution and at the start of the Iran-Iraq war. U.S. petroleum consumption already has showed signs of slowing, with demand growth running just 0.2 percent over last year, according to the latest government data. But experts said the slowdown was being offset by continued strong growth in demand from China and other developing economies. Further tempering oil's rally on Wednesday, U.S. crude stocks and refined fuel stockpiles rose more than expected last week, according to a government report. But inventories of crude in the United States remain about 4 percent below last year, while gasoline and distillate stocks remain about 7 percent below last year. |
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