With Thai Bev/TCC Assets’s vote against the capital reduction, F& N shareholders are left with accepting his S$8.88 offer to realise returns or run the risk of F& N’s share price collapsing (without the backing of a capital reduction) if they let his offer lapse.
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ThaiBev
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up or down on debut?
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jingsze91
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04-Oct-2012 17:17
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wonder how will be tomorrow.. | ||
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skk888
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04-Oct-2012 16:56
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heavy support at .40. | ||
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skk888
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04-Oct-2012 00:15
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No problem. Good luck to both of us!
I'm holding a couple more times than you. Sweat. Btw remember to plan your own price to exit.
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jingsze91
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03-Oct-2012 23:31
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thanks for such thorough explanation. i have feelings that it shld be sucessful too. I think im gonna just hold on or average it out and pray hard it goes thru! | ||
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skk888
Veteran |
03-Oct-2012 23:22
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It depends on your financial situation. If you can afford to lose (though you may not lose), you can try to average it down. I think the indication that other forumers told u is a pretty good guide, but u can limit it to 15% , 12% or whichever suits you. If not, then don't. There are times that you may lose, or have to hold on longer than necessary, even after you average it down. Dollar Cost Averaging is usually not applied well, because of psychological factors. It proposes that one buys less at the first entry, and then increase the volume in the subsequent entries, so that the average at the end is averaged down further. Yes! There's always a possibility that it will be unsuccessful. So it depends on your risk appetite. If that F& N offer lapses, F& N and ThaiBev share prices will drop (though cash will still remain in F& N books). But ThaiBev's boss and his wife, who own the TCC Assets, are pretty aggressive in gaining control and I personally feel there's a more than 50% chance that it will be successful. The latest filing on substantial shareholders showed that they increased their F& N further last Friday. I've a feeling that they are betting their entire fortune on this... Haha..
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jingsze91
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03-Oct-2012 23:04
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yes bought using cash at 0.43. do u think i shld enter more at this low price? not sure how much will it rise to even if the sucessful takeover? any possiblities the takeover will be unsucessful? | ||
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skk888
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03-Oct-2012 22:55
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the result will be known in a month or so... if you can hold for a month or two then you can consider holding till then..
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skk888
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03-Oct-2012 22:52
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Your unrealized loss is nearing 10%.. It depends whether you can hold.. btw you bought using cash? If you can hold, I think it has the potential.. but cant' then probably have to drop it.. I entered more today.. hoping for extraordinary gain for the co after the successful takeover |
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jingsze91
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03-Oct-2012 22:48
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not much. 20 lots only. but am afraid my holding power cant last long. i know this share has potential so it will be a waste if i let go now | ||
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shadowmoon
Veteran |
03-Oct-2012 22:42
Yells: "Henshin" |
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How many lots u purchased? Rem the 20% rule i recommended.
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jingsze91
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03-Oct-2012 22:28
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devastated.. seeing it drop day by day. any sugesstions and explanation why is this happening? do i enter more lots or not? | ||
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shadowmoon
Veteran |
03-Oct-2012 22:09
Yells: "Henshin" |
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Singapore maybe in possible technical recession. Market sentiment is not quite in favour to THbev at this stage also. But I will make a possible scoop for more of THbev share.....when suitable time arise. This stock got its attractive valuation that worth look into. Anyway HAPPY Trading to all. Cheerio.
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shadowmoon
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03-Oct-2012 22:03
Yells: "Henshin" |
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Similarly thinking as i mentioned b4. This quote was from Mr skk888 link (that share my view): Next possibility was to keep the profit majority for themselves.... For this, is quite possible also. But as i mentioned in F& N Forum, its nature for ppl to be greedy & want more. N everything is possible. Happy trading to all.....Cheers. Let continue watching how the whole saga move
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skk888
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03-Oct-2012 21:32
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http://sbr.com.sg/food-beverage/news/2-possible-reasons-behind-thai-bev-and-tcc-assets-nay-vote | ||
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sanuks
Veteran |
03-Oct-2012 21:12
Yells: "Dont jump on moving train, you will hurt yourself - JIM ROGE" |
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shadowmoon, i have the same thinking also, as it dips further, will accumulate some..... read this F& N capital reduction debatable
FRASER & Neave's (F& N) extraordinary general meeting may be over, but the debate over the results of the voting for the proposal to reduce the issued capital by a third against payment of $8.50 for each share cancelled has not ended. F& N's board has said the result would have been very different if Thai Beverage with its over 30 per cent stake had supported the proposal. To expect the Thais to do so would seem strange in that it would have meant taking a haircut of 38 cents on each of 146 million shares they bought at $8.88. Even the board's expectation the Thais would have supported the resolution in the belief that as a foreign shareholder they would prefer to take a capital repayment albeit at a 38 cent loss per share on a third of their 438 million shares rather than just a dividend has proven to be wrong. More inexplicable is the refusal to read the signals that most minority shareholders were not prepared to take $8.50 on a third of their shareholding and then replace it by buying at $8.88 per share, plus commission, on the temporary odd lot market. The company's announcement on SGX.net on Sept 28 suggests that adjusting for the votes of the Thais the other shareholders would have voted 90.94 per cent in favour of the capital reduction is a bit difficult to follow without seeing the calculation. |
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shadowmoon
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02-Oct-2012 21:37
Yells: "Henshin" |
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thk it will drop some more b4 proceeding up. Will top up some more at about 0.370. If this pt is hit. |
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sanuks
Veteran |
02-Oct-2012 21:14
Yells: "Dont jump on moving train, you will hurt yourself - JIM ROGE" |
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vCarlsberg Returns to Thailand After Heineken’s APB DealCarlsberg A/S (CARLA), the world’s fourth- biggest brewer, is returning to Thailand after a seven-year hiatus, following Heineken NV’s successful bid to expand in Southeast Asia. Carlsberg is teaming up with Singha Corp. to distribute, market and sell its brands in the country, it said Sept. 28. Thailand, with a population of about 67 million, is one of the few Southeast Asian nations where the Copenhagen-based brewer has a negligible footprint. The joint venture with the maker of Leo beer gives Carlsberg a partner that controls almost 60 percent of the country’s beer market. Heineken got approval to take control of Asia Pacific Breweries Ltd. (APB) on Sept. 28 after buying out its venture partner for S$5.6 billion ($4.6 billion), giving it full ownership of operations across Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand. It was the culmination of a two-month tussle with Thai billionaire Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, who offered to buy Singapore’s Fraser & Neave Ltd., the owner of a 40 percent stake in APB. “When you’re looking for high growth, Thailand and China are two very crucial markets,” Gerard Rijk, an analyst at ING Groep NV in Amsterdam, said in a telephone interview. Thailand and China, the biggest beer market by volume, will be the leading areas for growth, Rijk said. Carlsberg operates in China through a venture with Chongqing Brewery Co., of which it owns about 30 percent. Retail beer sales in Thailand may reach $3.52 billion, compared with $36 billion in China, according to market researcher Mintel International. Thai SettlementHeineken said last week it wants to benefit from expansion in the “international premium segment” in Asia, which encompasses higher-priced Carlsberg and Heineken brands. The Danish brewer, which also sells brands including Tuborg and Kronenbourg 1664, has stumbled in Thailand before. A joint venture formed in 2000 with Chang Beverages Pte, owned by Charoen, failed to develop as planned and led to Carlsberg removing executives representing Charoen from the board of Carlsberg Asia in 2003. Carlsberg said at the time it was “not happy with the value” of assets Chang wanted to add to the joint venture. The dispute ended in 2005 with Carlsberg paying $120 million to divide their assets and settle a legal dispute. Charoen, 68, controls Singapore-traded Thai Beverage Pcl (THBEV), one of the companies that spurred Heineken to offer to buy out its partner F& N from APB. Singha and LeoCompanies owned by Charoen began buying shares in F& N and APB in July, threatening Heineken’s control over APB and sparking a bidding war. Heineken finally increased its bid to S$53 a share from S$50 to win backing for its APB bid. APB traded at S$34.69 on July 16 before the process began. With Singha, Carlsberg gets a partner with 59 percent of the Thai beer market in 2011, compared with the 31 percent share of Charoen’s ThaiBev, according to data from Euromonitor International. Singha, founded by its parent company Boon Rawd Brewery Co. in 1933, already has three breweries as well as water and soft-drink production sites. Singha and Carlsberg said the partnership will allow them to “strengthen the premium portfolio in Thailand.” The Thai brewer sells Singha beer as well as Leo, the biggest brand in the country, and both brands have been gaining market share compared with ThaiBev’s Chang since 2006. Carlsberg, which also said it could expand Singha sales outside Thailand, will compete with Heineken (HEIA), which had a 4.3 percent brand share in the country last year in the international premium segment. Seeking Growth“The deal gives Carlsberg a good foothold in the Thai market and fits with the company’s strategy to exploit growth options in the Asian markets,” Mikkel Petersen, senior equity adviser at Nordea Bank AB in Copenhagen, wrote today. “If Carlsberg plays its cards right in Asia, the shares may have additional growth potential.” Heineken rose 0.8 percent to 46.77 euros at 11:24 a.m. in Amsterdam trading, extending this year’s gain to 31 percent. Carlsberg advanced 1.5 percent to 521.5 kroner in Copenhagen, bringing the year’s increase to 29 percent. Competition could benefit both companies, Rijk said, as more brewers in the market make it easier to promote a growing genre of beer to consumers. Heineken and Carlsberg, as well as beermakers such as SABMiller Plc and Anheuser-Busch InBev NV (ABI), are trying to offset sluggish growth in Europe with emerging-market sales. Thailand’s Finance Ministry forecasts economic growth will reach 5.5 percent this year, while Europe continues to grapple with a financial crisis. ‘Key Platform’Carlsberg reported net revenue of 63.6 billion kroner ($11 billion) in 2011, a 6 percent increase excluding acquisitions, disposals and currency fluctuations. Revenue at its Asia unit rose 15 percent on the same basis to 6.8 billion kroner, and it said it would invest in capacity expansion as it sees the region as a “key platform for growth.” Carlsberg has trailed Kirin Holdings Co., Asahi Group Holdings Co. and Heineken in deals in emerging markets, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. While the Singha partnership gives it access to a fast- growing region, it doesn’t fully control the business, increasing the risk, Rijk said. “The Singha tie-up is a good move, but joint ventures could be less successful if not executed well,” Rijk said. “There’s a risk you lose attention from your partner on the ground, perhaps when a bigger competitor comes in.” To contact the reporter on this story: Clementine Fletcher in London at cfletcher5@bloomberg.net |
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cheng987
Senior |
02-Oct-2012 15:25
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Hoping to come to 50 cts .Target price 60 cts by CIMB. Good Luck | ||
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francisd
Veteran |
02-Oct-2012 14:43
Yells: "BUY LOW SELL HIGH" |
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Holding quite steady today, I can see that there are BUY UPs all the way and many to go..... Waiting for my TP .45cents. Cheers. |
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skk888
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02-Oct-2012 13:55
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Entered @ .40 . Waiting for good news from successful takeover of F& N later this month. |
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