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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors Post Reply Rate topic
TradeChancellor Veteran	10-Aug-2012 18:21        TradeChancellor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	An SMU Prof during a seminar 1 or 2 months ago  said one sentence that i felt sum up everything: " How can you have a monetry union without a fiscal union?" Means everyone has the same currency, spending as they like, but nobody to control that spending. And because its the same currency, a big spender who does not spend within the means will drag a prudent spender down. The solution is to have someone such as Germany control member spending, but who likes to be controlled? Who likes to be told how much i can spend? chartreader      ( Date: 10-Aug-2012 18:11) Posted: The euro zone is a flaw from the very beginning in my opinion :-) ... Now more and more people realized the flaw. UK is definitely smart to see this from the very beginning.  TradeChancellor      ( Date: 10-Aug-2012 18:07) Posted: To see the seriousness of the EURO problem  vis-a-vis the US, the FOREX rate seems to offer an interesting perspective. The EUR/USD  is now about $1.2274... The 6-year low is $1.1876, about 400 pips  away from that low. Taking a longer frame, the 9-year low is $1.1640, about 600+ pips away from today's price...A worsening EU economy and government ambivalence may push it towards that 6-year low, perhaps even 9-year low
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chartreader Senior	10-Aug-2012 18:11        chartreader About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The euro zone is a flaw from the very beginning in my opinion :-) ... Now more and more people realized the flaw. UK is definitely smart to see this from the very beginning.  TradeChancellor      ( Date: 10-Aug-2012 18:07) Posted: To see the seriousness of the EURO problem  vis-a-vis the US, the FOREX rate seems to offer an interesting perspective. The EUR/USD  is now about $1.2274... The 6-year low is $1.1876, about 400 pips  away from that low. Taking a longer frame, the 9-year low is $1.1640, about 600+ pips away from today's price...A worsening EU economy and government ambivalence may push it towards that 6-year low, perhaps even 9-year low
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iPunter Supreme	10-Aug-2012 18:09        iPunter About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Ah sifu, you are getting the picture... As it is, no one can really tell what the market is doing.   If it is in a major downrend, then the present run is but merely a retracement.       If a bull run is already in progress, then a correction would be 'healthy'.             However, since no one knows the size or magnitude of a retracement or correction,                   it is always a dicey game to play, no matter what the major trend is, since retracements                       and corrections can be really big (eg, 20%, 50%, 62%, or even 100%, or more)... chartreader      ( Date: 10-Aug-2012 17:53) Posted: Bro iPunter, may be I misunderstood your earlier statement:  " If the market is already high, chances of a bull run are slim" My argument was we haven't even had a bull run yet :-), so how can it be over. We're still in the back and forth mode. But now after reading your clarification, I think what you mean is since we're in the early stage (the back and forth mode), the current rally leg may just be too extended without a correction first.
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TradeChancellor Veteran	10-Aug-2012 18:07        TradeChancellor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	To see the seriousness of the EURO problem  vis-a-vis the US, the FOREX rate seems to offer an interesting perspective. The EUR/USD  is now about $1.2274... The 6-year low is $1.1876, about 400 pips  away from that low. Taking a longer frame, the 9-year low is $1.1640, about 600+ pips away from today's price...A worsening EU economy and government ambivalence may push it towards that 6-year low, perhaps even 9-year low
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chartreader Senior	10-Aug-2012 17:53        chartreader About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Bro iPunter, may be I misunderstood your earlier statement:  " If the market is already high, chances of a bull run are slim" My argument was we haven't even had a bull run yet :-), so how can it be over. We're still in the back and forth mode. But now after reading your clarification, I think what you mean is since we're in the early stage (the back and forth mode), the current rally leg may just be too extended without a correction first.
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chartreader Senior	10-Aug-2012 17:41        chartreader About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes of course  Not all VIPs, uncle, aunties win or lose money in the casino right? Some of them win, but some of them lose, though if you read Genting financial report, you get a clue that winning from the VIPs are more difficult This is what Genting said in the 1Q 2012 report:    " However, overall revenue for first quarter of   2012 was affected by lower win percentage and business volume in the premium player business  when compared to first quarter of 2011." Some VIPs in the casino (or professional in stock market) have a better edge that the other VIPs, uncles, aunties. ragmop15      ( Date: 10-Aug-2012 17:28) Posted: not really.. there are also BBs who lose money... isnt it?  chartreader      ( Date: 10-Aug-2012 17:25) Posted: A retailer by itself can't move the market, so there needs to be " many" that get attracted in before the market can move. Think this way - a casino, if nobody comes there - can it still make money? Whom the casino makes money from? Many uncles, aunties, and a few VIPs ... Likewise the market - many uncles, aunties, and a few professionals.
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wangerism Veteran	10-Aug-2012 17:29        wangerism About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	bull ran already...   iPunter      ( Date: 10-Aug-2012 17:19) Posted: Sifu, you are talking about the final phase of a bull-run, where any newbie can just whack       on any  stock and become rich. Whereas I am referring to the start of a bull-run...  chartreader      ( Date: 10-Aug-2012 16:55) Posted: Sorry la friend ... but I have a different view on this. My own experience in 2007, an end of bull market only happen when: - when all/most participants has reached a " mania" state - all stocks have been fried to crisp - starting from the blue chip, move to 2nd liner, 3rd liner, till pennies - everybody wants to trade for a living because making money in stock is so easy ... You look around nowadays - any of these signs happening or not? Despite central banks all over the world pumping money, most cash remain in the sideline. People is very cautious because economy outlook is very gloomy. They prefer to park their money in money market, bonds, or dividend/yielding securities. Risk aversion is just so high and risk taking is so low. I happen to have a friend who became a full time trader some 3-4 years back and recently was just back to his old job. He told me that even the local big boy struggle to float because after they pumped stocks, there wasn't much success to gain participants. They just incurred trading costs, but can't get back much return because not enough participants to distribute. Look at the financial report of the investment banks where proprietary trading used to be a significant source of profit for them. Their profit from trading is dwindling, why? Most people still avoid stocks! Gross, the bond guru from Pimco, even pro-claimed the dead of the equity cult. The stock market globally pretty much didn't move anywhere in 2011 - 2012, they just moved back and forth. China is near it's all time low and Europe just slightly recovered. How can we be near the end of bull market? It's more likely we're in the early stage where a base is being built by the back and forth. What has happened, will happen again ... my friend :-)
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ragmop15 Member	10-Aug-2012 17:28        ragmop15 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	not really.. there are also BBs who lose money... isnt it?  chartreader      ( Date: 10-Aug-2012 17:25) Posted: A retailer by itself can't move the market, so there needs to be " many" that get attracted in before the market can move. Think this way - a casino, if nobody comes there - can it still make money? Whom the casino makes money from? Many uncles, aunties, and a few VIPs ... Likewise the market - many uncles, aunties, and a few professionals.
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TradeChancellor Veteran	10-Aug-2012 17:27        TradeChancellor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	yup :) and i believe that a bull run may be delayed for a while if a Euro member state leave or war in the mid east involving iran/US/israel chartreader      ( Date: 10-Aug-2012 17:16) Posted: Yep ... that's why I said we're in the early stage where there is a lot of " back and forth" where the market is building the base. I won't be surprise if market correct by few hundred points from where we're today. We'll only see the run after this phase is over, and it will go to overdrive mode when it's very close to the end of the run. tio bo?  TradeChancellor      ( Date: 10-Aug-2012 17:10) Posted: We are not in a bull actually... if u look at the charts we have been side ways since 2nd week of august last year, exactly 1 year ago... only Jun this year then we have a mini uptrend, the mini uptrend has been for 2months+ only.
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chartreader Senior	10-Aug-2012 17:25        chartreader About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	A retailer by itself can't move the market, so there needs to be " many" that get attracted in before the market can move. Think this way - a casino, if nobody comes there - can it still make money? Whom the casino makes money from? Many uncles, aunties, and a few VIPs ... Likewise the market - many uncles, aunties, and a few professionals.
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iPunter Supreme	10-Aug-2012 17:19        iPunter About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Sifu, you are talking about the final phase of a bull-run, where any newbie can just whack       on any  stock and become rich. Whereas I am referring to the start of a bull-run...  chartreader      ( Date: 10-Aug-2012 16:55) Posted: Sorry la friend ... but I have a different view on this. My own experience in 2007, an end of bull market only happen when: - when all/most participants has reached a " mania" state - all stocks have been fried to crisp - starting from the blue chip, move to 2nd liner, 3rd liner, till pennies - everybody wants to trade for a living because making money in stock is so easy ... You look around nowadays - any of these signs happening or not? Despite central banks all over the world pumping money, most cash remain in the sideline. People is very cautious because economy outlook is very gloomy. They prefer to park their money in money market, bonds, or dividend/yielding securities. Risk aversion is just so high and risk taking is so low. I happen to have a friend who became a full time trader some 3-4 years back and recently was just back to his old job. He told me that even the local big boy struggle to float because after they pumped stocks, there wasn't much success to gain participants. They just incurred trading costs, but can't get back much return because not enough participants to distribute. Look at the financial report of the investment banks where proprietary trading used to be a significant source of profit for them. Their profit from trading is dwindling, why? Most people still avoid stocks! Gross, the bond guru from Pimco, even pro-claimed the dead of the equity cult. The stock market globally pretty much didn't move anywhere in 2011 - 2012, they just moved back and forth. China is near it's all time low and Europe just slightly recovered. How can we be near the end of bull market? It's more likely we're in the early stage where a base is being built by the back and forth. What has happened, will happen again ... my friend :-)    iPunter      ( Date: 10-Aug-2012 16:20) Posted: A bull market will most likely exist only when the market       has been very pengsan for a long period of time eg. years.         If the market is already high, chances of a bull run are slim...
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ragmop15 Member	10-Aug-2012 17:19        ragmop15 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	may i ask when will you not consider this as a bull? based on the description you have given earlier..the opposite will be true for a bear market. since 2007 till now do you think we already experienced the opposite? how to determine the bear has already ended and the bull has started? thanks chartreader      ( Date: 10-Aug-2012 17:16) Posted: Yep ... that's why I said we're in the early stage where there is a lot of " back and forth" where the market is building the base. I won't be surprise if market correct by few hundred points from where we're today. We'll only see the run after this phase is over, and it will go to overdrive mode when it's very close to the end of the run. tio bo?  TradeChancellor      ( Date: 10-Aug-2012 17:10) Posted: We are not in a bull actually... if u look at the charts we have been side ways since 2nd week of august last year, exactly 1 year ago... only Jun this year then we have a mini uptrend, the mini uptrend has been for 2months+ only.
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TradeChancellor Veteran	10-Aug-2012 17:16        TradeChancellor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	My take is what the public retailers think is not important... its whats the BBs think and do is most important.... because BBs = 80% of market
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chartreader Senior	10-Aug-2012 17:16        chartreader About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yep ... that's why I said we're in the early stage where there is a lot of " back and forth" where the market is building the base. I won't be surprise if market correct by few hundred points from where we're today. We'll only see the run after this phase is over, and it will go to overdrive mode when it's very close to the end of the run. tio bo?  TradeChancellor      ( Date: 10-Aug-2012 17:10) Posted: We are not in a bull actually... if u look at the charts we have been side ways since 2nd week of august last year, exactly 1 year ago... only Jun this year then we have a mini uptrend, the mini uptrend has been for 2months+ only.
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rotijai Supreme	10-Aug-2012 17:12        rotijai About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	a lot of sifu must be hoping the public thinks a like.. :D
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TradeChancellor Veteran	10-Aug-2012 17:10        TradeChancellor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	We are not in a bull actually... if u look at the charts we have been side ways since 2nd week of august last year, exactly 1 year ago... only Jun this year then we have a mini uptrend, the mini uptrend has been for 2months+ only.
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chartreader Senior	10-Aug-2012 16:55        chartreader About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Sorry la friend ... but I have a different view on this. My own experience in 2007, an end of bull market only happen when: - when all/most participants has reached a " mania" state - all stocks have been fried to crisp - starting from the blue chip, move to 2nd liner, 3rd liner, till pennies - everybody wants to trade for a living because making money in stock is so easy ... You look around nowadays - any of these signs happening or not? Despite central banks all over the world pumping money, most cash remain in the sideline. People is very cautious because economy outlook is very gloomy. They prefer to park their money in money market, bonds, or dividend/yielding securities. Risk aversion is just so high and risk taking is so low. I happen to have a friend who became a full time trader some 3-4 years back and recently was just back to his old job. He told me that even the local big boy struggle to float because after they pumped stocks, there wasn't much success to gain participants. They just incurred trading costs, but can't get back much return because not enough participants to distribute. Look at the financial report of the investment banks where proprietary trading used to be a significant source of profit for them. Their profit from trading is dwindling, why? Most people still avoid stocks! Gross, the bond guru from Pimco, even pro-claimed the dead of the equity cult. The stock market globally pretty much didn't move anywhere in 2011 - 2012, they just moved back and forth. China is near it's all time low and Europe just slightly recovered. How can we be near the end of bull market? It's more likely we're in the early stage where a base is being built by the back and forth. What has happened, will happen again ... my friend :-)    iPunter      ( Date: 10-Aug-2012 16:20) Posted: A bull market will most likely exist only when the market       has been very pengsan for a long period of time eg. years.         If the market is already high, chances of a bull run are slim...  chartreader      ( Date: 10-Aug-2012 16:11) Posted: We're in the early stage bull market lah ... Singapore cheong arrrh
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TradeChancellor Veteran	10-Aug-2012 16:46        TradeChancellor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The important support is at 20ma ~3016-3022 region....3035 also important as that is support at the gap down point
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wangerism Veteran	10-Aug-2012 16:36        wangerism About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	huat ah!   Sgshares      ( Date: 10-Aug-2012 16:28) Posted: STI is strong ... risktaker      ( Date: 10-Aug-2012 16:08) Posted: Ok la chiong ah ......
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Sgshares Elite	10-Aug-2012 16:28        Sgshares About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	STI is strong ... risktaker      ( Date: 10-Aug-2012 16:08) Posted: Ok la chiong ah ...... Bopanha      ( Date: 10-Aug-2012 16:03) Posted: Mari kita rakyat Singapura, sama sama menuju, bahagia, Chita chita kita yang mulia, berjaya Singapura! Semua kita bersatu, dengan semangat yang baru, Mari-lah kita berseru, Majulah Singapura. Cheong arh Singapora!
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