Higher Bharti-MTN involvement likely? — We think the 30th September extension to the Bharti-MTN exclusivity negotiation window raises the deal probability. Perceptions like MTN shareholders (SH) wanting a higher price, and potential regulatory/technical on a Bharti GDR are rising, and SingTel’s direct and higher involvement could help.
How could SingTel get involved? — (1) Commit as buyer of Bharti GDR to be listed on JSE at a fixed price to those not wanting it, hence crystallising all cash offer – more attractive to MTN SH?; 2) Bharti makes preferential allotment of shares to SingTel first for cash and then improves offer to MTN SH to all-cash. Regulatory approvals/exemptions needed but not insurmountable.
How much could SingTel invest? — “Stock” portion of deal is US$5.7bn (S$8.2bn) per current terms, a ceiling to SingTel’s involvement, we think. A 1.8x net debt/EBITDA implies S$3.1bn of borrowing capacity, inadequate if SingTel goes all the way. Equity raising/value for price fears could then dominate in the short-term.
Longer term positive for SingTel though — Locking in longer term growth potential should enhance SingTel’s “growth and yield” attraction. Our analysis suggests accounting for Bharti-MTN cross-holdings (vs. headline workings) is deal EPS accretive to Bharti now, but EPS neutral to a 16% higher cash offer.
Our view on Bharti-MTN outcomes and probability — (1) Bharti walks away: 10% probability; (2) Deal announced with small changes to current terms: 30%; (3) Materially higher (all-cash?) offer with significant help from SingTel: 50%; (4) Bharti goes alone with significantly higher cash offer: 10%.
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SingTel
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Singtel Bullish???
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erictkw
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01-Oct-2009 10:43
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Bharti, MTN call off merger talks on South African objections
Bharti Airtel and MTN Group called off merger talks for the second time in two years, after the South African government said it couldn’t accept the terms. Singapore Telecommunications, Southeast Asia’s biggest phone firm, owns about 30.4% stake in Bharti Airtel, India’s leading mobile operator. Bharti asked for an opportunity to revive the deal after the deadline for exclusive talks ended today. The deal “needed an approval from the government of South Africa, which has expressed its inability to accept it in the current form,” the companies said in an e-mailed statement. India’s largest wireless company said on May 25 it offered 86 rand ($16.1) in cash plus half a Bharti stock for each MTN share for a 49% stake, while Africa’s largest mobile-phone company and its shareholders would acquire 36% of the New Delhi-based operator. Bharti said at the time the combined value of the deal may exceed US$23 billion ($32.5 billion). The deal would have been the world’s biggest cross-border transaction this year. The decision to scrap talks will set back the operators’ efforts to create a company that would have helped them trim costs and challenge Vodafone Group Plc in Africa and India, where the world’s biggest mobile-phone company has been targeting growth. Bharti is facing increasing competition at home from Vodafone and Japan’s NTT DoCoMo Inc. and MTN has aimed to expand outside the continent. “It will be a huge setback” to Bharti’s aim of becoming a global player, Romal Shetty, executive director for telecommunications at KPMG’s Indian unit, said before the announcement. “The ability to leverage things will reduce, it will take time.” The South African government wants MTN to remain a South African company with local management, Communications Minister Siphiwe Nyanda said in Johannesburg today. “It would be sad if we saw this entity move into the hands and management of foreign nationals,” Nyanda said. “Its management must remain South African.” Any possible delays with the deal would not be because of the South African government, he added. |
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AK_Francis
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01-Oct-2009 10:41
Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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Wat a contrast, Stel up a ct, whereas Starhup down 14cts now? Alamah, jsut changing my Stel MIO hmline plan n changing back to no TV plan again, kana $ 54 penalty somemore. My wife alrdy use to Starhup cable, moreover, she is computer illterate. D moral of d story is, check your family total mobile usage cost before doing any changes when d old plan due. As d counter will not advise u one, they got perks for every contract secured loh. Cheers. |
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erictkw
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01-Oct-2009 10:26
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Singapore Telecommunications won the bid for rights to Barclays Premier League matches for three years starting August 2010, it said in a statement to the stock exchange today. The deal also includes rights for mio TV, as well as internet and mobile, according to the statement. |
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i780samsung
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30-Sep-2009 08:39
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EPL out yesterday ... today perhaps on Bharti-MTN
Media Statement SingTel bids for broadcast rights to EPL Singapore, 29 September 2009 -- announced that it has submitted a bid for the broadcast rights to the English Premier League matches (August 2010 - May 2013). The bid is consistent with the company’s strategy to bring attractive content to SingTel customers for their entertainment.
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erictkw
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29-Sep-2009 09:58
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From Kim Eng Research Team - 28 Sep 09 Telco Sector Update (Gregory YAP 64321450) Previous day closing price: StarHub $2.16, SingTel $3.14 Recommendation: StarHub Hold (upgraded), SingTel Buy (maintained) Target price: StarHub $2.20, SingTel $3.51 StarHub has underperformed so far StarHub has underperformed SingTel and M1 since July on concerns over the 2010-2012 BPL bid (see Figure 1). This is in-line with our expectation when we downgraded it to Sell in August. Since then, the market has speculated on two options that could lessen the impact, e.g. joint bidding and content sharing. With the bid submission dateline on 29 Sep, we discuss these options and recommend a trading strategy. We rate the probability of a joint bid as low First, Premier League is unlikely to accept it due to its maximum revenue priority. Second, SingTel and StarHub are fiercely competitive and are unlikely to agree. If anything, SingTel is more likely to bid aggressively even if it does not win just to spoil the show for StarHub, as Optus did with Telstra with the Aussie NBN, as every dollar it spends subsidising the loss-making pay TV business is a dollar taken away from competing against SingTel in mobile and broadband. Also, there is the risk that ESPN, the third likely bidder, could snatch away the rights by bidding aggressively if SingTel/StarHub bid conservatively. Content sharing more likely to be a post-bid event There is precedent for content sharing in Australia, where Optus broadcasts FoxTel’s Sports Channels, which includes BPL among other sports. But this is more likely to be a post-bid event to be negotiated between the winner and the resellers, assuming that Premier League allows it. This means it should not affect the current bidding process. Every US$50m increment reduces profit by 10% StarHub last won the BPL rights in 2006 for US$150m although that has never been confirmed. Our current forecasts assume US$200m for the next round. By our estimates, every US$50m increment in the cost will depress FY10 earnings by 10% if StarHub wins the bid. The best recommendation depends on the outcome Given the many possibilities, the best trading strategy depends on the outcome. We think there will be a relief rally if StarHub wins, just as it did in 2006 (see Figure 2), with the damage of the cost to be assessed later. In any case, it is unlikely that StarHub will be able to reveal the actual cost due to non-disclosure constraints. If StarHub loses to SingTel, the stock will likely be hit as concerns will mount that it will start to lose revenue from Sports Pack subscribers switching to SingTel. If ESPN wins, StarHub should be able to maintain status quo as it will still be able to show BPL games on Channel 23. Fundamentally, we upgrade the stock to a Hold for the dividend yield of over 8%. As for SingTel, we think the stock merits a Buy even if it has to pay a high cost for the BPL rights as it will infinitely strengthen its Mio TV offerings especially since it already has the rights to the UEFA Champions League. This should lead to higher subscriber gains. |
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erictkw
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28-Sep-2009 11:48
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DJ MARKET TALK: SingTel +0.3%; EPL Bid, Bharti-MTN News Soon 0220 GMT [Dow Jones] SingTel (Z74.SG) outperforming as defensive plays shine in falling market; shares +0.3% at S$3.15 vs STI off 0.9%, resistance at 30-day moving average of S$3.17. Company set for potential near-term news on two fronts; Bharti-MTN deal, English Premier League (EPL) rights bidding. Macquarie, who has Neutral rating, S$$3.16 target price, expects Bharti-MTN deal update by Wednesday; "we view the transaction as negative for SingTel's shareholders due to the complex shareholding structure and are concerned about a potential expansion in the holding discount." Citi meanwhile, who has Buy rating, S$3.30 target price, says "what Bharti-MTN could mean is too big an overhang to ignore and there is little visibility on what the eventual deal structure and price would mean for Bharti or Singtel." Citi also notes EPL bids due tomorrow, believes SingTel favors solo bid but joint bid with StarHub (CC3.SG) also possible. "Unless bidding is exorbitant (we think unlikely), we think any sharing/win would be positive to SingTel." (KIG) |
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erictkw
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23-Sep-2009 12:54
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Morgan Stanley says SingTel may raise stake in Bharti
Singapore Telecommunications (STEL.SI) could maintain a 25% stake in the combined entity created as a result of a potential merger between India's Bharti Airtel (BRTI.BO) and South Africa‘s MTN (MTNJ.J), Morgan Stanley said in a report on Wednesday.
“We do not expect the Bharti-MTN transaction to have material dilutive impact to SingTel's EPS (earnings per share),” analysts at the U.S. investment bank said.
“Indeed, if the Bharti-MTN transaction goes through and SingTel increases its stake in the new entity using debt (which is very likely), we see room for slight EPS enhancement.”
SingTel, Southeast Asia's biggest phone firm, owns about 30.4% stake in Bharti Airtel, India's leading mobile operator.
SingTel has said in the past it will remain a significant shareholder after any deal, though some analysts have expressed concerns that its stake in the combined entity could fall below 20%.
Bharti Airtel's planned tie-up with South Africa's MTN faces scrutiny from regulators and politicians. It said on Tuesday the deal would comply with the laws in both countries and any required waivers would be sought when appropriate. (nDEL347844)
Bharti Airtel's statement came shortly after the Indian market regulator amended takeover regulations by bringing depositary receipt holders with voting rights on par with shareholders.
Morgan Stanley said the latest change in takeover regulations in India creates uncertainties about the deal, but if the transaction goes through, it expects SingTel could borrow to increase its stake in the combined entity.
SingTel could enhance its earnings-per-share compound annual growth rate (CAGR) by 200-300 basis points assuming a 25% stake in the new entity, the research report said.
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erictkw
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23-Sep-2009 10:19
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DJ MARKET TALK: MS Upgrades SingTel To Overweight; S$3.65 Target 0104 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Morgan Stanley upgrades Singapore Telecom (Z74.SG) to Overweight from Equal-weight, raises target price to S$3.65 from S$3.25. Broker says key reasons for upgrade are continued positive newsflow from emerging market affiliates, long-term opportunity for Australian arm Optus, expectation that Bharti-MTN deal will not materially dilute SingTel earnings. "Related newsflow has overhung SingTel stock; however, if SingTel increases its stake in the new entity using its debt capacity, we see room for slight earnings enhancement." Says stock looks attractively valued following its underperformance vs market year-to-date. Adds stock's FY10 PE ratio of 12.6x is undemanding given company's high quality diversified exposure to mobile sector in emerging markets. Shares last +0.9% at S$3.21. (KIG) |
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el7888
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22-Sep-2009 13:02
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aircraft
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18-Sep-2009 18:17
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what happen to singtel, no power | ||||||||||||||
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erictkw
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15-Sep-2009 13:16
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SingTel to sell INQ’s social networking phone: Update
Southeast Asia’s biggest telecom operator, Singapore Telecommunications (STEL.SI), said on Monday it would start to sell a social networking phone model, the INQ Mini 3G, targeting young customers. The deal is a milestone for INQ Mobile, a unit of Hong Kong’s Hutchison Whampoa (0013.HK), who so far has sold its phones through Hutchison’s operators in different countries. “One of the biggest operators has chosen us. This is confirmation that we are serious,” INQ’s Chief Executive Frank Meehan told Thomson Reuters. INQ is benefiting from its early move to make reasonably priced phones for connecting to social networks and the Internet in general — a move large handset makers like Nokia (NOK1V.HE) and Motorola (MOT.N) are only now following. “Operators are not looking at only differentiating at the top-end, but now they look at many different price levels,” Meehan said. SingTel said it would unveil pricing details for the phone later in the week when the model goes on sale in Singapore, and the firms are in talks to offer the phone through SingTel’s Australian subsidiary Optus as well as other affiliates. “Definitely there are discussions between ourselves and INQ as to how we can bring this phone to other users in other markets,” said Yuen Kuan Moon, SingTel’s Executive Vice President of Consumer. INQ’s Meehan said that the phone will be introduced in Britain in two weeks’ time, and then in Italy and Scandinavia in October, and later in Australia and Hong Kong. “Securing a deal with a non-Hutchison Whampoa operator is the breakthrough INQ Mobile needs,” said Ben Wood, research director at CCS Insight. “The company continues to be a nimble challenger in the mobile devices space and this agreement could help open doors with further mobile networks around the world.” INQ has earlier said the model would cost operators less than US$140 ($199), enabling many carriers to offer it for free with monthly contracts. INQ Mini 3G is the first mass-market phone with an Internet-based Twitter client. The phone will use Internet connections for sending the 140-character messages, called Tweets, not text messages as in Twitter’s own service. Twitter has seen explosive growth this year. The majority of visits to online social networks are still made by people sitting at a computer telling their friends where they are and how they are feeling, exchanging opinions on their favourite movies and music or uploading pictures. INQ, however, has proved the spontaneous and personal nature of much of that communication also lends itself to the handset. The INQ1 model, dubbed the Facebook phone, won the award for best phone at the Mobile World Congress trade show in February. INQ1 and new INQ models integrate key features of Facebook and other social networking sites into the phone’s address book, removing the need to separately log on to the service. Meehan said the company plans to enter the increasingly crowded smartphone market next year, introducing a phone to operate on Google’s (GOOG.O) Android operating system. “For customers there hasn’t really been anything in the Android world to set them on fire,” Meehan said. “We think we can, and we have to, leapfrog quickly.” Most other cellphone makers plan to also introduce Android phones, and Motorola unveiled last week its first cellphone to run on Android, but analysts questioned if it could revive the once-dominant handset maker’s fortunes. |
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erictkw
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09-Sep-2009 23:11
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Bharti, MTN said to have reached US$24b preliminary accord
Bharti Airtel, India’s biggest mobile-phone company, and South Africa’s MTN Group have reached a US$24 billion ($34 billion) preliminary agreement to buy each other’s shares, the first step in a planned merger, three people familiar with the matter said. Bharti sweetened its bid to buy 49% of MTN by increasing the cash portion of its US$14 billion offer, the people said, asking not to be identified before an announcement this month. MTN, Africa’s biggest wireless company, and its shareholders are poised to acquire 33% of Bharti for about US$10 billion, they said. The world’s biggest cross-border deal this year would pave the way for the creation of a mobile-phone carrier with annual sales of US$20 billion and 200 million wireless subscribers from Johannesburg to Mumbai. The accord would need the approval of 75% of MTN’s shareholders, some of which have said Bharti should raise its offer from a bid disclosed in May. Singapore Telecommunications, which owns about 30% of Bharti, agreed to invest as much as US$3 billion to buy Bharti shares, according to the people. SingTel said in an e-mail the company doesn’t comment on “market speculation,” as did Marina Bidoli, a spokeswoman at Johannesburg-based MTN. Ranjana Smetacek, a New Delhi-based spokeswoman at Bharti, declined to comment on the deal beyond the company’s public statement. Stock, Cash Bharti agreed to give US$4 billion in stock to two of MTN’s biggest shareholders, M1 Group and South Africa’s Public Investment Corp., while offering remaining shareholders US$10 billion in cash, the people said. Bharti said on May 25 it offered 86 rand ($16.24) in cash plus half a Bharti stock for each MTN share for a 49% stake, while Africa’s largest mobile-phone company and its shareholders would acquire 36% of the New Delhi-based operator. Bharti said at the time the value of the deal may exceed US$23 billion. Bharti fell 3.5% to close at 409.35 rupees ($12.04) in Mumbai trading, trimming its gain this year to 14%. MTN rose 1.5% in Johannesburg trading to 126.50 rand as of 2.38 p.m. Shareholders of about 20% of MTN have said they didn’t support the deal at Bharti’s initial bid. Some demanded an all-cash offer. Coronation Fund Coronation Fund Managers, which holds about 5% of MTN, said on Aug. 20 it wanted about 31% more for its stake in Africa’s largest wireless provider. The fund also wanted an all-cash offer, instead of Bharti’s proposed stock- and-cash bid, it said then. MTN Chief Executive Officer Phuthuma Nhleko has been looking to expand in markets outside the continent and said in March the company wanted to make a “meaningful” acquisition this year. The company last year failed to close deals with Bharti and its nearest Indian rival Reliance Communications. The combined operation will help Bharti Chairman Sunil Mittal increase overseas sales at a time when Reliance and Vodafone are narrowing its lead in India. Competition is also intensifying with the entry of more foreign rivals including Japan’s NTT DoCoMo Inc. and Norway’s Telenor ASA. Bharti added a record 8.44 million users last quarter, 60% of them in rural and semi-urban areas, Chief Executive Officer Manoj Kohli said July 23. The additions boosted the operator’s total wireless subscribers to 102.4 million, more than the combined populations of Spain and the United Kingdom. Vodafone’s Indian unit and Reliance added customers at a faster pace in the quarter, according to the latest available figures from India’s Telecom Regulatory Authority, to increase their market shares to 18% and 19% respectively, while Bharti’s proportion was unchanged. Bharti hired Barclays Plc and Standard Chartered Plc for the agreement, while Bank of America Corp. and Deutsche Bank AG advised MTN. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. worked with SingTel, Southeast Asia’s largest telephone company. |
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erictkw
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09-Sep-2009 16:04
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Wednesday, September 9, 2009 |
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AK_Francis
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07-Sep-2009 23:45
Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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OK, will get rid of ds burger, n peow Genting SP impending R issue again. Cheers.
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ozone2002
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07-Sep-2009 22:40
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yeah 3.29.. good rise the past few days..
congrats to those vested..
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erictkw
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06-Sep-2009 15:59
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Not so difficult to sell those ST shares in CPF. Just sold off the odd lots in both my CPF Investment Acct and in my CPF Acct keeping only 1 lot. 
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AK_Francis
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05-Sep-2009 16:49
Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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Ha ha didn't keep ds burger, except those ST shares in CPF, lazy to clear them loh. 1.6 lot only, though no more bonus given liao. | ||||||||||||||
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guangguang
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05-Sep-2009 14:59
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When will you guy sell this? or keep for long term? my target set 3.50 to sell and to wait for another opportunity to come back later.... 
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DnApeh
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05-Sep-2009 10:19
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price out of bands, RSI not overbought. may cheong and bring STI up in the process. |
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erictkw
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04-Sep-2009 12:20
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AmFraser Daily Review - 3 Sep 09 SINGTEL - Likely to move to higher end of $3.10 - $3.27 one month range. TP $3.25-27 Support $3.10-14 Trading interest has faded away in the past month following the stock’s failure to break recent $3.47-52 highs and sharp fall to below key historic $3.36-14 support area. With rival index heavyweight stocks offering greater trading chances, ST languished, drifting to even below key historic $3.14 support ($3.10 low) but staying well above next $3.02-04 support. As a result there had not been much positive technical signs to get trading ideas from as the counter fell well below its 13-day MA buy signal followed by periodic loss of 50-day MA support since mid-Aug. However it managed to re-surface above 50-days after about a week of see-sawing, producing a mild rebound to $3.25 last week and $3.27 on Monday thanks to a cross between 13 and 50 days. But this proved unsustainable as ST quickly plunged back to $3.14 at the day’s low and close and test of $3.11 in last 2 days with this morning’s low at $3.13. Nevertheless, the MA cut is the first ray of hope that the stock could be coming out of its narrow consolidation and with the second quarter ending Sep 30 and analysts preparing to revise their forecasts, there should be some change of fortune soon. First the stock will have to move back to the higher end of its $3.10-27 range and this should be not too far away as the 13-days MA is flattening and showing signs of turning up for the first time since its downturn on Aug 5 which accompanied the plunge from $3.40 to $3.22, which demolished key historic supports from $3.36, $3.30 and $3.28. Now it seems an uphill climb with $3.28 acting as first no-entry given that the Aug 31 high was $3.27. But it should not be too difficult to break into $3.28-$3.36 as the 50-days (at $3.19) is still rising despite the past month’s weakness and with the potential for a more positive cut from a rising 13 (at $3.16) and 50-days, the counter should pull up back to this week’s high soon. This should also bring it back to the rising trend channel which should be the case as nobody can argue that ST is destined to stay below this channel for more than a short spell of time. Key fibonacci support and resistances are at $3.08 and $3.35, coinciding with the recent trading band and multi year figures with better chance of a move to a higher $3.14-$3.28 in coming days. The Company's Stock Trading Account is not allowed to buy or sell security contrary to the recommendation in this report for 3 market days from the date of this report, Sept 3 2009. |
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