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Jiutian Chemical
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JiutianC
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sthinvest
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06-Jun-2008 13:11
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Cannot agree more. It would be better if the management can give us more regular updates other than the mandatory Qtr results. | ||
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xoxoxo
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05-Jun-2008 19:11
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Well said, well said. I would rather trust the Group of 4 's than the armchair analyst. Lets hold for 6 to 12 months.
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Reveal
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05-Jun-2008 13:53
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Think the similiar hold period will apply for the group of 4 hence the theory of them selling is difficult to accept although we cannot be 100% sure ( the market is just too complicated to predict ). Have followed the Jiutian drama for a while and know well that the new methanol plant holds the key to the company profitabilty that will be unprecedented. The company's business model has been profitable since years ago and what they are doing is basically scaling up productions and increasing market share. Its expansion plan conceived almost 2 years ago will soon be materialised as its completion of the plant is just months away. The group of 4 are willing to put in substantial millions paying 13.5 cents/ share which was 2.5 cents more than the TP projected by some analysts. So what was the real value? Actually, looking at their financial numbers, for the management to sustain profitabilty while they go through the snow storm ( one in fifty years ) causing a lack of demand on DMF due to shut downs of many affected companies downstream and the unfavorable ASP is commendable. Think the worse is over ( although cannot be 100% sure as anything can happen ) as the demand for DMF has returned and the ASP for their products has begin to turn around and the plants are coming back to better efficiency. Looking at one of the analyst's report, apparently, her projection was so different from the management 's brief. One was so conservative and pessimistic while the other painted an opposite optimistic senario. The point is should we trust the armchair Analysts' guesstimates or the Management 's projection or the Group of 4 's gut feel more? I am willing to put some money here together with those committed ( both management and group of 4 ) and hold for a while believing that it should give me better returns in time to come. PS: 178, taken your views and no hard feeling. Luck will be with those who diligently created it themselves :) |
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rikkyyee
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05-Jun-2008 01:22
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Normally for share placement those taker have to sign a agreement that not able sale the share in open market for certain period eg- 1 yrs. For sure there are some BB know about the insider news before hand have already run with good profit and left retail investor trap inside. Not untill the new methanol plant in operation, Jiutian alway cannot get good margin on DMF hence the new DMF plant will never be in full capacity. If you willing to hold this stock > 6 months then it may be able to recover, or else it is just go sideway or may retest the low 0.125 soon. |
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178investors
Veteran |
04-Jun-2008 22:51
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...hope your revealation is right about jiutian. As to whole mkt not knowing, the placements divided among the 4 muskets dont even make them substantial shareholders individually. So the 4 don't have to tell the whole world thier activities. Moreover, it is possible to sold the equivalent quantities thru SBL program and then return back same sold amount shares from placement later. Anyway, we're outside passive investors...don't know full inside details... all just guessing and hope to make money guessing... (from my earlier msg, you could tell i'm guessing too so don't take it too hard.) good luck to you. |
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Reveal
Member |
04-Jun-2008 16:07
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178, sure or not? The company on the 2 Jun has just gotten the In-principle approval subject to some compliance before the placement shares completion. They do have 7 trading days to sort it out. Anyway if they have sold the 275,900,000 shares, how can the whole market dun know ..? Just vested. Hope it pays off.. |
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178investors
Veteran |
04-Jun-2008 14:32
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....likely the 4 musketeers who got the placement shares all sold already... taken their nice profits leaving the late retail punters stuck with expensive jiutian. | ||
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
04-Jun-2008 00:41
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Yet another broker downgraded Jiutian. Report by UOB. The snowstorms in 1Q08 caused many downstream PU manufacturers to stop production, which in turn depressed demand for DMF. As a result, Jiutian's ASPs for DMF in 1Q08 were low, so the Jiuyang plant suffered losses for a 2nd consecutive quarter. ASPs of DMF recovered to Rmb6,100-6,200/ tonne in Apr but were still not high enough to cover the plant's variable costs as methanol prices also rose to Rmb3,400-3,500/ tonne in the same period. The plant's utilisation rate will remain very low as Jiutian is unwilling to produce DMF under such circumstances.
The Jiuyang plant was able to yield a positive margin through the production and sale of methylamine, whose price has risen sharply to Rmb7,500/tonne since end-1Q08. Management has received orders for methylamine and will produce 3,000 tonnes at the plant every month. This should help cover the plant's fixed costs to some extent.
Methanol prices are likely to stay firm or continue rising on the back of hikes in coal and oil prices. In contrast, prices of DMF and methylamine are not well supported - the former is suffering from overcapacity while the latter appears to be deviating too much from its historical average of Rmb6,400/tonne and is faced with downside risks. We lower our earnings forecast for '08 by 49.3% to factor in the Jiuyang plant's low utilisation rate and cost pressure. Downgrade to SELL with fair price cut to $0.11 based on 1x 2008 P/B. |
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sthinvest
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31-May-2008 14:38
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The DMF prices have been moving up since April and the ASP is definitely turning in Jiutian's favor. Comparing with CIMB 's estimates of 5400 RMB/ tonne, the current DMF price is now about 25% higher. Business model cannot be faulted and with patience, it should be able to reap good returns. DMF: China domestic Manufacture Quotations Append time:2008-5-26 17 15:00 Hualu Hengsheng EXW (in bulk) Quota RMB￥6800-6900 per ton; Zhejiang Jiangshan EXW (in bulk) Quota RMB￥7100-7200 per ton; Contract customers’ deal price is quite lower than the quotations. Anyang Jiutian EXW (in bulk) Quota RMB￥6700-6900 per ton; Anhui Huaihua now EXW (in bulk) Quota RMB￥7000 per ton, some systems are not in full operation; Zhangqiu Riyue EXW (in bulk) Quota RMB￥6800-7000 per ton. Reported by www.chinapu.com |
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Reveal
Member |
27-May-2008 14:24
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The placement shares are done at 13.5cents to the four investors as reported. When the analysts out there were screaming 11 cents or lesser in their latest rating, i wondered what was presented to these people would interest them to take it up at that level. No prudent and seasoned investors would want to buy stocks valued 11cents for 13.5 cents. I am sure the company has value and great potentials to enable these investors sink their millions in. Think that the counter has dropped to a level where the cash rich can pick and see many folds returns within 9 months. Then the analysts will sing a different tunes.. |
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jackjames
Elite |
27-May-2008 14:07
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ha ha.. the issue now is not holding long term or not shor term, the issue is to pick the right stocks for long term, if long term for capitaland, SIA, COSCO, all the big defensive blue chip, surely long term, got capital gain + big dividends are rewarding... but for Jiutian, not saying the return is not much, the return is 1300% in less than 2 years time.. alamak.. that is even 10 times better than those blue defensive stocks.. but then, sometimes, it is time to take profit man... you never know it will back to the square one.. but have to say honest word la.. who knows it will drop back to 0.12 from high 0.78, it is easy to look back at history.. but again... the objective is clear, EARN as much as you can... when the things got sour, remember to run like mad , else you will regret... so, now you ask me if Jiutian can fly back to the gloriuos dynasty? can be, why not? those new shares to big players at 0.135... u think they dare not to work hard to produce results? i think if you have spare cash, can bet on this counter.. |
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178investors
Veteran |
27-May-2008 13:55
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okay to long term lah... if you bought the good stuffs and not thingy like jiutian. 
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tchoonw
Veteran |
27-May-2008 13:48
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if everyone gonna make $$$, who's going to lose $$$? this is a zero sum game? | ||
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iPunter
Supreme |
27-May-2008 12:55
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The best investment is long-term trading...ie. obeying bull and bear markets' dictates.
No point simply being a long-term investor and holding on indefinitely for the grandchildren.  .
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Reveal
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27-May-2008 12:48
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Yes, investing in shares allow ones to made their money work harder than just getting the miserable 0.5 to 1.5 % interest in the bank which is far below the inflation rate. Yes, buy shares is to make money. So in time to come, we would need to sell once the target price or % has been achieved. To do this, we would need to invest within our means avoiding the need to sell in panic when fear is the call of the day. Be a mid to long term investor reaping the benefits of enjoying better returns over time. Warren buffet is not concern about price drops as this is the inherent in stocks investment due to market volatility. In actual fact, he turn greedy in the climate of fear, buying more to enjoy better % return when the stocks recover. Choose the right stocks, buy at the right time, invest within our means, sell when the target has been achieved. Do not fear when the market is bearish. Do not be greedy when the market is bullish. Hope we all will make lot of money and do something good for the less fortunates. |
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tchoonw
Veteran |
27-May-2008 09:50
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Buy shares is to make $$$...if dun sell, what for buy then?
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jackjames
Elite |
27-May-2008 08:58
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iPunter, i don't know man.. maybe can write an email to his blog, asking him if he has let go all his shares.. but then, he left Jiutian in Oct 2007, i am quite sure he will let go most of his shares.. you will Warren Buffet long term stratergy does not work for every counters... if you are buying at 0.055, and cheong to 0.78 still don't want to sell and think it will rise further, but now drop shit to 0.12 (low last few week..) you can claim how stupid you are if you didn't let go.... a lah... for us, if 0.055 jump to 0.10, we already sold all already, don't even need to wait untitl it cheoong to 0.70 , ha ha... true?
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iPunter
Supreme |
27-May-2008 08:46
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Jackjames...
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StarLine
Senior |
27-May-2008 01:56
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I would too, if I were you, unless I have concrete facts that the counter will hold at the current price. |
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Hulumas
Supreme |
26-May-2008 16:21
Yells: "INVEST but not TRADE please!" |
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Oh no, I hold substantial amount to this counter, should I cut loss and buy it back at Sgd. 0.09? Any suggestion? | ||
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