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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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elfinchilde
Elite |
22-Jan-2009 16:35
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for those wondering wtf happened to capland just now. http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2009/01/capland.html yah, tech support is ard 242-250s. |
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maxcty
Master |
22-Jan-2009 16:31
Yells: "always a learning day for me in trading" |
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ya loh..same feeling too..actually wanted to buy liao but up so fast....... damm it... |
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freeme
Elite |
22-Jan-2009 16:29
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up again liao so fast.. no time to think wan to buy already up liao.. |
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maxcty
Master |
22-Jan-2009 16:27
Yells: "always a learning day for me in trading" |
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agree..shall go in below 2.5... |
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zenithten
Member |
22-Jan-2009 16:25
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I believed expert like elfinchilde recommending Q below 2.5.... |
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jackjames
Elite |
22-Jan-2009 16:25
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there is someone from the straits times, during the interview, he said he made couple of hundreds dollar each time, he went in below $3, and sell after it shot up above $3... he did that many times... well, it is not hard to think it can go back to $3 easily... so, ding dong ding dong few times, u might gain quite a bit .. buy at 2.50 sell at 3.. that's already 20%... of course the super strong support point is at 2.44. |
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maxcty
Master |
22-Jan-2009 16:22
Yells: "always a learning day for me in trading" |
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ya..me too..not sure will it drop further? | ||||||
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oinkoink1999
Senior |
22-Jan-2009 16:09
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It beats me too...is it the BBs tanking the shares now? Any comments from the experts? Is this the 2nd support line? alamak...
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jackjames
Elite |
22-Jan-2009 16:05
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adui... suddenly drop so much .. maybe the budget 2009 doesn't help much the developer? haven't read their speech yet, ha ha..
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freeme
Elite |
22-Jan-2009 15:59
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Can fish liao soon.. Whats wrong suddenly sia, free falling from 2.6 to 2.5 |
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maxcty
Master |
22-Jan-2009 14:41
Yells: "always a learning day for me in trading" |
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Hi oinkoink, thanks for your opinion. so u have bought some already actually? Actually I looking at buying once price hits range 2.4~2.5. 
cheers~ maxcty |
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oinkoink1999
Senior |
22-Jan-2009 14:34
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Hi maxcty, I wanna do a DCA but at this support is not worth for my case. If I have not bot any of the lots, I will probably go in at today's intra low range....just my 2cents worth of opinion...like wat the seniors in this forums says...caveat applies...LOL Cheers, oinkoink
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maxcty
Master |
22-Jan-2009 14:09
Yells: "always a learning day for me in trading" |
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hi oinkoink, ya. i read about 240-250 refering to 2nd stirke. I just want to see when is the good time to go in. what u think?... maxcty |
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oinkoink1999
Senior |
22-Jan-2009 13:49
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hi maxcty, i thought 240 - 250 is the 2nd strike? you mean there is another support line after this range? I'm also waiting leh...LOL... cheers, oinkoink
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maxcty
Master |
22-Jan-2009 11:24
Yells: "always a learning day for me in trading" |
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Hi, Thanks for all the important information and details listed over at this forum. Still a newbie to trading now. after reading all these for capland, to summary, we shall hold trading for this counter? best to go in for 1st strike will be ard 240~250 i guess... |
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ticklish8
Senior |
16-Jan-2009 19:29
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From ST
WITH the economic health of Singapore's major trading partners taking a turn for the worse since the year began, the Government will revise this year's growth figures again before next Thursday's Budget announcement, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said on Friday.
This revision also reflects the deepening concern that he picked up from conversations he has had with some 30 business and union leaders at pre-Budget lunch meetings in the past week. The Government downgraded its forecast for economic growth this year to between -2 and 1 per cent on Jan 2. This was a revision of the forecast it made in November last year that growth in 2009 would be between -1 and 2 per cent. Mr Lee spoke to reporters at the Istana after a pre-Budget lunch dialogue with union leaders on Friday. The government will present its Budget on Jan 22. Mr Lee said that since the last revision of the growth forecast for the year, there has been 'more bad news' from other countries in the last few weeks. 'Their growth numbers have come down, all over Asia. The trade numbers have come down very drastically all over Asia,' he noted. 'I think the Korean is at around 40-something per cent, the Americans are down, all our major trading partners are seeing this tremendous downturn. 'I was just reading yesterday one report that containers are now being shipped from China to Europe for free because the capacity is there, the ship has to go, so you just pay me for the fuel cost and I will carry your container for free. 'It's unprecedented. So it's a situation which is already gloomier now than it was at New Year. And we'll have to revise our growth estimates, and the Ministry of Trade and Industry is working on it. So I think we'll have new growth estimates before the Budget next week.'
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ticklish8
Senior |
16-Jan-2009 17:26
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No problem, writing this story now..... What is significant MTI just come out -2 to 1 percent growth estimate early January. Now they have to revise it already. It show how deep the economic downturns. It is unprecedented.....I am not confident economy will recover by Jun-Sep as most analyst predicted, I may be wrong.
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crimson
Senior |
16-Jan-2009 17:07
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wah, very informative insights to what's already to be expected down this year... thanks for info | ||||||
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equator2010
Senior |
16-Jan-2009 17:02
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Thanks for sharing this ticklish...and so fast too! | ||||||
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ticklish8
Senior |
16-Jan-2009 16:41
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yes very bad... he is the transcript..... PM is this your first meeting and dialogue with business leaders/ union? I usually have a sounding of range of view during the year and particularly before budget. But this time I am doing more of it, because of critical moment the economic problem, internationally are very severe. We have been affected sharply, and the news for the last few month, and especially the last few weeks are negative. We have just got data today, trade figure have been very bad because, Dec number, minus 20 percent in terms of non oil domestic export growth in Dec. So it is not an ordinary budget, I tot it will be useful if I personally have a chance to meet the business people, union leaders, different sector, get different feel from them, how they see the economy from their vantage point, how their business are affected, the prospect. How the government programme is working out, the Spur programme which we roll out last year, whether it is meeting its objective whether it need further in tune and what more government need to do, some ideas shape our budget and present our set of policy. So I had couple of lunches with business people, have lunches with union, these are people that are right there on the ground, while we wait for statistic to come, there few weeks or month have pass, out of date. But they are on the spot they can see it. can tell you company have built up 6 month of inventory manufacture the stuff no market standing there. it cant go on, or in case PSA, they have so many crane, volume of container have gone down, cranes are staying idle and operators also not fully engage it give you an immediate sense. At the same time it gave them a sense of what we are thinking, and what they way we want to go, we see things. Very useful. I am not the only one doing it MTI have been doing it, MOF tharman because he is putting the budget together. MND looking at the construction industry, MOM talking to employer about condition in the labour market. but let, everybody doing its work, but I want to have a felt 2. Share their concern? Well of course, they like to have Spur enhance further in terms of coverage and in terms of flexibility. I think they are concern about the overall business cost, because unionist told, have been telling me. On the labour side we know what to tell the workers, some cost influence by government and govt need to do its part. Employers, they are focus on business cost but also focus on the longer terms. It is downturn, but they have been Singapore long times, they know us, they want to continue to do business because they can see opportunity in Asia and they think Singapore is a good place to take advantage these opportunity, they want to be part of Singapore story. So they like to work with us to position themselves to be able to quietly built up during these period, so the will be able to do that when things improve. I am quite cheered when i talk to company particular MNC because they have seen up and down before, not something as severe as these in the long time, they have seen the up and down and they are determine to see these through and they want to think how they can grow post crisis, and we want to be in dialogue with them, talking about these and working about these. So Budget we have many measure to deal with the immediate issue, but we also have measure that address the longer terms, we deal with competitiveness, new capabilities, creating new opportunity. Can expect huge budget deficit? I think we have a deficit this year and I am not making a budget speech today. But you will found out next week. But if you look countries around the world, many of them have been going for fiscal stimulus packages, they see downturn, they see unemployment rising, they see growth down and they believe thru fiscal stimulus, they can try to keep the economy activities up, and try to boost confidence and activities to see thru these difficult patch. Our situation is quite different because we are small and open economy. So if u spend money to boost demand, pple will spend it once and most of the money will leak overseas and that the end of the warmth feeling. but we need to do to keep our company stay in business and in particularly to help them employ workers so that workers can stay in the jobs, and continue to look after their household thru the downturns. So that will be the focus of the budget. And I surely we going to have a deficit this year. Dig deeper through our reserve? If there is a deficit somebody have to pay for it. And fortunate we have reserve so that something the Finance Ministry is working out. Corporate tax cut? We found out next week. How government help cut cost? We have some ideas we will see. Response from unionist and company on Government role in reducing the cost? We said we are aware of that and thru budget we going to do something. And we putting the budget very carefully and that is feedback that we take seriously. It is not a surprising feedback. But valuable to get confirmation from them they are focus on these issue. In facts it is very heartening because when u talk to unionist and the employer, they are not in opposite perspective, they have similar perspective, they know the imperatives, to keep jobs there to keep the company viable, and let see what we can do to work together to achieve that. That is tremendous strength for us, in situation like these that many other countries cannot do. Because I have a visitor few month from Latin America, I explain to him how we work together, the governments and employer and the union and the union leader is the sec gen of NTUC and I have appointed him Minister and he sit in the Cabinet and he my minister but he elected by the union. He was astonish and he called his minister and told me his minister that, he said it will take a long time to achieve something like that in his country. We have something quite unique, which will see us thru these downturns and stand us in good steed. PM can you give an update of the Singapore economy ? AS i said figure been very downbeat, we had a very poor 4th quarter last year. q by q is minus 12.5 percent in the fourth quarter. As a result we amended our growth estimate to minus 2 to plus 1 percent. But that was 1 January. in the last few weeks, there is more bad news from other countries. Their growth number have come down, all over Asia. The trade number have come down very drastically all over Asia. I think Korea have down 40 something percent, American are down, all our major trading partner seeing tremendous downturns. Just reading one report that container are now being ship from China to Europe for free because nobody wants to / capacity is there, the ships have to go, so u just pay me for the fuel cost and I will carry your container for free. It is unprecedented. So situation already gloomier now than at new year. And we have to revise our growth estimate, MTI is working at it now. So we going to have a new growth estimate before the budget next week. Specially what they want in cutting business? Well rental is one, various government charges they looking at, look taxes, property tax example, request, corporate tax rebate, wide ranges in the BT, read the newspaper u can see all the request there. Basically they want assistant that is helpful to them. Govt jobs is not to do everything that is ask for but to look and see what is the item that is most effective, how they raise the money that i need to finance - either from the budget revenue raised this year or from the reserve that we have accumulated. Crisis, particular concern? The big difference between these crisis is this is a worldwide problem. Previous times in 85 for example more NIE at that times which was hit, Singapore HK Taiwan Korea and we put ourselves right , the world is there, we resume business with the world. 10 years ago, during the Asian Crisis, it was some Asian countries that was down, but American, Eu not so badly affected, they carry on, so Asia put house in order, we continue to grow with them. In this case the problem is worldwide. The American financial system, but all major economy is in a synchronised global downturns. So to come out from these it will be a lot harder and we cant say we make adjustment in Singapore and we will able to go back to business as usual. We have to do things in Singapore but happen after that is what come round the world Obama major package in America, EU moving, German have 1 package, they have another package, Britain, Japan have bundle policy And we hope given time these policy will not only gave a boost to the economy but the structural/financial problem will be overcome, banks make sound, the confidence will be restored and business resume and you operate again. These are Spore will do our part but we have only a small role but different this time. |
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