Latest Forum Topics / Biosensors | Post Reply |
Is Biosensors a good buy?
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Pension
Elite |
02-Aug-2007 21:56
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more good news coming, the financial result out soon. |
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investor
Senior |
02-Aug-2007 19:27
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Just listened to the webcast conference call for Terumo's fiscal Q1 08. According to the presentator, The clinical trial which has just started has attracted keen interest from the Japanese physicians. Also, the first sales shipment has been concluded in Spore. (wonder how come Spore allows the sale - Do the spore medical authorities approved the sale ?) When Biosensor's bare metal stent got approval to mkt in Japan, they garner sales of US 800k (I think that is the figure) for the last fiscal Q4 07, and the momentum seems to be strong. Hopefully, it may be easier to get the Japanese equivalent of the CE mark in Japan - and it may then follow on the momentum of the bare metal stent. Again, just some fundamental news flow - It does not invalidate the current negative sentiment surrounding the stock - Technical picture still looks bad. |
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jackjames
Elite |
02-Aug-2007 16:44
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the market now is very unstable now, but it sounds very promising.. another low today at 0.705... hmm.. | ||
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novena_33
Veteran |
02-Aug-2007 15:46
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so JACKJAMES...... R U into it.... | ||
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investor
Senior |
02-Aug-2007 15:36
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Went into Terumo's presentation of their Fiscal Q1 08 results. Under their Norbori Stent program, they stated the following : 1) Europe - Applying for CE Mark 2) Japan - Clinical Trials started 04th July 3) Asia - First Shipment commenced in July First Sales commenced. Do not quite know what they mean when they say that 'sales has commenced' Above for information. - Not an inducement to trade. Technical picture still does not show any sign of reversal. It would be goood, if the stock can close above the 0.75 cents today, as this area has been a strong support level for quite sometime, and it takes this kind of mkt situation for it to break below. | ||
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bengster
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02-Aug-2007 15:19
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Not only JNJ is eyeing Biosensors. BSX, MDT and ABT also. Endeavor and Xience stent are found to have problems also. All durable polymer stents. All stent majors are afraid of Biosensors getting approvals and canibalise their market and want to buy over Biosensors. I confirm one of them is lobbying against Biomatrix CE at Netherlands and that is why kena delay until now. Very dirty games at regulatory levels. They want to buy us up at cheap valuation. The articles attached are for those who are interested in fundamental analysis. http://www.theheart.org/article/126751.do http://www.cardiosource.com/ExpertOpinions/hottopics/article.asp?paperID=28 http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/06_41/b4004081.htm http://www.boston.com/business/globe/articles/2006/10/27/her_stent_studies_intrigue_doctors_wall_street/ http://www.europcronline.com/data/daily/Daily_050526.pdf http://www.cardiacinterventionstoday.com/PDFarticles/0307/CIT0307_04.pdf http://www.allencaron.com/clients/biosensors/releases/021407.pdf *Quote* Dr. Sharma: Among the newer stents, Xience V has the most promise. Endeavor may do OK, but it will have a high target lesion revascularization rate, especially in small vessels, due to higher late loss. Still, I think it is a safe stent from a stent thrombosis point of view, even very late stent thrombosis. In my opinion, in 4 to 5 years, we will be using a DES with bioabsorbable polymer so that after 6 to 8 months, after the DES has done its job of eliminating intimal hyperplasia, it will become a bare-metal stent. Dr Sharma feels Biomatrix will be the future dominant DES and the funny thing is he had been receiving grants from JNJ and Boston for research programs. I want to further add on that durable polymer DES patients cannot be on costly plavix drugs for the rest of their lives after DES implants. But once they stop plavix intake, the risk of late-thrombosis escalates. Lifetime taking of Plavix is no good for DES patients also. Biomatrix reverts to BMS after 6 months so the duration of costly plavix drug consumption can be stopped earlier. Biomatrix has the best of both worlds of DES and BMS. Even the pioneer and leader critic of DES late-thrombosis issue Renu Virmani is now an advocate of Biosensor's technology. Now you know why all other DES rivals want Biomatrix CE regulatory approvals to be delayed and want to buy up Biosensors??? I have asked an international medical devices analyst from L.E.K Consulting (the most respected international valuation consultant for M&A in biomed industry) to put an estimation for increase in valuation upon Biomatrix getting CE and IDE approval. He came up with the figure: at least US$800m increase in takeover/US listing valuation for Biosensors upon obtaining these 2 approvals. The true valuation of Biosensors will emerge when takeover happens at year end. Those desperate sellers now will regret a few months down the road. |
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jackjames
Elite |
02-Aug-2007 14:20
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thanks bengster, that's a good analysis... It seems like 0.715 price at 2 pm is a wonderful price, but this month, the stocks can be quite moody... that's why no matter how interesting the FA is, people just scared away.. acording to your write up, can I say, Biosensor has something really great that J&J is desperate for? |
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bengster
Member |
02-Aug-2007 13:36
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JNJ's Cordis unit is already in deep trouble. A few months back already got news they planning to restructure and lay-off workers. The JNJ news was never factored in Singapore market. Even one week after Conor's failure Biosensors share price is still stagnant (which i personally feel is very big news for Biosensors). Investors here are more focused about TA than FA. Last year around Q3 JNJ approached Biosensors and finally offered $1.70 but this offer was rejected. $1.70 was already twice the market trading price but we rejected them. $1.70 per share values Biosensors at about US$1B at that time. Now our market cap today is below US$450m. Really pathetic. I have been telling you guys here if this share price continues to be so pathetic, it will seriously affect the takeover price. I mean how can JNJ get their shareholders to approve any takeover at 300% premium above last traded price even if the BOD feels it is a good deal for JNJ??? JNJ then went on to buy Conor at US$1.4B. Conor ran into disaster and JNJ is trying to fix and remodify Costar stent. They hired many materials engineer, designers and experts but Costar's fundamental weakest is their "novel" reservoir design and none of the experts can salvage anything useful out of the stent. Total investment write-off. Im sure Mr Warren Buffet will not be happy (Berkshire owns almost 2% of JNJ). Now JNJ is coming back to Biosensors and even more desperate. Experts estimate by 2009, Cordis will have only 10% of global DES market share. Biosensors is what Cordis need to get back to their former glory as DES market leader and maintain JNJ's market cap because of huge decrease in earnings from their Cordis unit now and going forward. My calculations reveal JNJ will make another higher offer to Biosensors several months down the road. It is just that our market here don't appreciate pre-earnings stock. But Warren Buffet's JNJ will definitely be interested. High margin product, continued market dominance of Cordis with "moat" high barrier of entry business. They just need the best DES stent with the best drug and top class stent technology (preferably all patented and proprietary) to piece up their whole jig-saw puzzle and hang up their masterpiece high up the wall for all the see and envy. |
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bengster
Member |
02-Aug-2007 13:33
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I just manage to get confirmation that NOBORI (Biomatrix) had IDE (Investigational Device Exemption) in Japan! This is a big news for Biosensors and they still did not make announcement to sell themselves to investors here. Freaking hopeless PR. The CEO should give the PR guy share options so he got more motivation to advertise this company to investors. Just because their licensee Terumo did not make public announcement on Japan IDE approval does not mean Biosensors cannot highlight the capability of our Biolimus drug and biodegredable technology's success in Japanese regulatory authorities. According to LEK Consulting valuer (best global specialist valuer for M&A for biomed industry), This IDE adds on another US$200m valuation in event of takeover/US listing. Look at the share price now..... 74cts (US$450m). Freaking pathetic! | ||
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ybtr81
Member |
31-Jul-2007 23:30
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Wat happen??? has been heading south these few days |
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abc2xyz
Senior |
30-Jul-2007 10:33
Yells: "A stock sucker always enriches the market makers" |
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Biosensors trying to maintain at $0.82 to 0.825. Watching to collect. |
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bengster
Member |
25-Jul-2007 22:21
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One of my friend dump a few hundred lots before closing. I told him the "Hong Kong" news will materialise soon. He want to listen to his broker and got no patience and want to switch to other "horses".Of course his broker made quite a bit from him today also. Mid-August is near. This stock will rocket soon. What a waste. | ||
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abc2xyz
Senior |
25-Jul-2007 18:18
Yells: "A stock sucker always enriches the market makers" |
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Today Biosensors lost 0.015 cts, quite disparaging. Many counters are moving up despite Dow's 220+ pts losses. The prices should be coming up, as it is straying up from the lower Bollinger band, a good sign of bottoming. |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
24-Jul-2007 21:22
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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TA charts have not changed since I last posted. Still not looking too good. | ||
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abc2xyz
Senior |
24-Jul-2007 18:22
Yells: "A stock sucker always enriches the market makers" |
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Hi Bengster, Thanks for sharing the information. Today's price movement for Biosensors quite encouraging. Some people are trying to push up to sell and some are pushing down to buy. The bulls won by a small margin of 0.05 cents. |
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bengster
Member |
24-Jul-2007 11:47
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Attended the AGM and SGM yesterday morning. 1. Someone asked about prospects of India and China for Biosensors. A DES called EXCEL is very hot-selling in China and uses Biosensors licensing techniology. The CEO replied India and China are growing exponentially are very important stent markets of the future and you will hear some good news from us very soon. He did not elaborate on it. 2. Someone asked about takeover possibilities as the circular for SGM seems to suggest takeover/substantial change in shareholdings/reverse takeover/etc. The CEO said the share option amendments are more for admin purposes rather than takeover issues. Biosensors is building the company as an independent and self-sufficient company and not building the company for takeover offers but takeover offers do come, the management will consider its merits. 3. Someone asked about the CE. The CEO said we are at the final stage of getting the approval and this this like climbing the apex of mountain peak, the tougest part of the whole climb but he is confident Biomatrix will get CE soon. 4. Someone asked about the poor share price performance due to shortist at work. The CEO said he is the single largest shareholder the shareholders' concern are also his concern. But he cannot help how people want to move the share price up or down but he will try to do what is best for shareholders to create more value to the company. Didn't enjoy any dividends from the company so must enjoy the free dimsum buffet breakfast as much as possible. Burp!!!! Excuse me.... Looks like the market is reacting to item 1 of 4 since yesterday after the AGM. Sorry for my late post this forum |
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Pension
Elite |
20-Jul-2007 12:17
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this counter, no development charge, so dun worry. every counter had recoverd to it value before the wednesday correction except this one. I think recover this afternoon. | ||
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ironside
Member |
20-Jul-2007 11:34
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Thank you Bengster for sharing your insight on Biosensor with all of us, and giving us caution on dangers ahead! I am vested in Biosensor (80 lots), hope what you shared will materialise, cheer |
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bengster
Member |
19-Jul-2007 18:58
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Didn't know condo en-block DC charges can affect this stock so much even after Biosensor's past 2 months of good news announcements. I got news from a BB's Hong Kong office something mega about Biosensors is brewing there. TP $1.25 by mid-August 2007. Buy after any big news announcement will be chasing after this rocketing stock. The best time to buy is when nobody wants them and every investors hates Biosensors and think this is a hopeless stock. | ||
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Pension
Elite |
19-Jul-2007 15:01
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yesterday incident, many got heart attack. So time to buy this counter. It is moving upward. | ||
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